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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"

The Driveclub thread that was posted a few days ago had me thinking about how much better games can look with perfect weather & lighting effects & now I'm really hoping that PS5 take a page from PS1 / PS2 /PS3 book & have a coprocessor for the effects.
Are there any custom processors like those in the market?.The most similar is Power VR wizard and nobody seems to use it.
The only custom hardware i see in PS5 is an extension of the id buffer to make CB rendering to 4K automatic and free.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
I don’t see weather as a particularly good candidate for specialized silicon, either, for reasons that have already been well examined. It’s too tightly integrated with the lighting model and overall rendering strategy to be effectively isolated.

If AR/VR remains a focal point I can definitely see some form of specialized image processing used to handle camera input. That’s a slam dunk application for dedicated processing power.
 

onQ123

Member
I don’t see weather as a particularly good candidate for specialized silicon, either, for reasons that have already been well examined. It’s too tightly integrated with the lighting model and overall rendering strategy to be effectively isolated.

If AR/VR remains a focal point I can definitely see some form of specialized image processing used to handle camera input. That’s a slam dunk application for dedicated processing power.


Not a special chip for weather but for physics , lighting , fluid simulation & so on that can be use for realistic weather & lighting.
 
I feel like the gen just started. 2020 would be ideal but still feels too early for a new gen. Final Fantasy 7 Remake probably wouldn't even be launched yet.
 

AmyS

Member
Not a special chip for weather but for physics , lighting , fluid simulation & so on that can be use for realistic weather & lighting.

Honestly, if they want to increase the amount of physics processing to a certain level, they would simply choose whatever number of CPU cores / threads and GPU compute units for PS5's APU that would reach their targets. The only other possibility, as unlikely as it may be, would be individual / discrete CPU and GPU chips.
 
Presumably we'll start getting some idea of the actual specs through leaks /second hand info soon.

They must be communicating ball park specs to the devs around now or very soon.
 

Fafalada

Fafracer forever
Lady Gaia said:
If AR/VR remains a focal point I can definitely see some form of specialized image processing used to handle camera input.
If we're talking AR/VR - getting more/proper support for non-linear projection rasterization would be a pretty big win (that can improve a bunch of other things as a side effect even in '2d' games). Depending on how it's implemented it could be something of a paradigm shift for compute applications too. Not something that'd come as a separate processor though obviously.

But yea - not sure any sort of dedicated compute acceleration really makes sense anymore unless it's solving a fixed problem that's basically invariant to software running.
 

Ovek

7Member7
Does he get paid to make these predictions because everything quoted in the OP is in the “no shit Sherlock” territory.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
Not a special chip for weather but for physics, lighting, fluid simulation & so on that can be use for realistic weather & lighting.

Dedicated hardware makes sense in very specific scenarios, otherwise general-purpose programmable compute is the way to go. The primary reason we've landed on CPU + GPU is because they're aiming at different tradeoffs for dealing with general-purpose compute loads: CPU for maximizing throughput of complex, sequential tasks and GPU for more limited, but highly parallel tasks.

Dedicated lighting hardware is actually a step backwards. Fixed-function pipelines were typical of 3D hardware last century but we've moved on. Fluid simulation is a pretty good fit for GPGPU. Generalized physics simulations are a more complicated story that aren't a great fit for dedicated hardware for an end-to-end solution. Some aspects, like cloth simulations, that only impact visuals work well on the GPU. Anything that requires a round-trip back to the CPU to impact gameplay, like collision detection, becomes a much trickier proposition not for reasons of throughput, but of latency.
 
Then I'm not sure what you thought you were replying to in the first place...

The original post from another poster I was replying to was about Sony adopting an iterative HW model where the Pro is mandated to be the minimum. spec. that developers target. I argued that in that situation the Pro would hold the PS5 back...

...then you sounded in saying it wouldn't but in a situation where the Pro isn't mandated to be the minimum spec.. I think it's you who's lost the thread of discussion.

You're not arguing against my point, but against something entirely tangental because I'm not arguing about the PS5 being held back in a situation where the PS4 Pro isn't mandated to be the minimum spec..

The reality is, I don't even think Sony or MS can mandate that devs target PS4 Pro or PS4 as a minimum hw spec.. The decision of which platforms to support lies with publishers, not Sony or MS.

In which case the entire premise of this line of discussion is moot.

ok then that's my fault lol. i thought you were suggesting that the PS4 Pro would hold the PS5 back simply because it existed and would be the perceived minimum once a PS5 released
 

c0de

Member
Dedicated hardware makes sense in very specific scenarios, otherwise general-purpose programmable compute is the way to go. The primary reason we've landed on CPU + GPU is because they're aiming at different tradeoffs for dealing with general-purpose compute loads: CPU for maximizing throughput of complex, sequential tasks and GPU for more limited, but highly parallel tasks.

Dedicated lighting hardware is actually a step backwards. Fixed-function pipelines were typical of 3D hardware last century but we've moved on. Fluid simulation is a pretty good fit for GPGPU. Generalized physics simulations are a more complicated story that aren't a great fit for dedicated hardware for an end-to-end solution. Some aspects, like cloth simulations, that only impact visuals work well on the GPU. Anything that requires a round-trip back to the CPU to impact gameplay, like collision detection, becomes a much trickier proposition not for reasons of throughput, but of latency.

Mmmmhhh, I can almost taste the fpga...
 

onQ123

Member
Dedicated hardware makes sense in very specific scenarios, otherwise general-purpose programmable compute is the way to go. The primary reason we've landed on CPU + GPU is because they're aiming at different tradeoffs for dealing with general-purpose compute loads: CPU for maximizing throughput of complex, sequential tasks and GPU for more limited, but highly parallel tasks.

Dedicated lighting hardware is actually a step backwards. Fixed-function pipelines were typical of 3D hardware last century but we've moved on. Fluid simulation is a pretty good fit for GPGPU. Generalized physics simulations are a more complicated story that aren't a great fit for dedicated hardware for an end-to-end solution. Some aspects, like cloth simulations, that only impact visuals work well on the GPU. Anything that requires a round-trip back to the CPU to impact gameplay, like collision detection, becomes a much trickier proposition not for reasons of throughput, but of latency.


fp16 was also thought to be a step backwards, joking but things come full circle & now that we have shared virtual address space bringing back specialized co-processors make a lot of sense.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
fp16 was also thought to be a step backwards

Presented as a joke, but worth nothing that it's also completely revisionist history. FP16 was introduced long after FP32 and FP64 because it has narrow applications for which it is perfectly suited, but it's not a great general-purpose numeric format.

I'm not claiming there's no purpose for which coprocessors are well-suited in a modern architecture, just that the examples you've suggested so far don't look like prime candidates. Specialized instructions or other tweaks in either the GPU or CPU architecture are more likely approaches to addressing these particular needs. Just my opinion, of course, but an opinion backed by decades of in-the-trenches work including recent direct collaboration with teams responsible for modern silicon design efforts.
 

Darknight

Member
PS5 holidays 2020, there won't be PS5 Pro just a long generation of 7-8 years with one console and it's slim versions like the PS360.


"Slim model" is not the "refresh" state, then the launch console gets the price cut.

Honestly a Slim model can still exist with a mid gen boost model but I think the half gen boost is here to stay.
 

Fukuzatsu

Member
I feel like the gen just started. 2020 would be ideal but still feels too early for a new gen. Final Fantasy 7 Remake probably wouldn't even be launched yet.

I mean, we're finishing off (arguably) the 4th year of this generation, Holiday 2019 or 2020 seem appropriately-timed if anything.
 
Presented as a joke, but worth nothing that it's also completely revisionist history. FP16 was introduced long after FP32 and FP64 because it has narrow applications for which it is perfectly suited, but it's not a great general-purpose numeric format.

I'm not claiming there's no purpose for which coprocessors are well-suited in a modern architecture, just that the examples you've suggested so far don't look like prime candidates. Specialized instructions or other tweaks in either the GPU or CPU architecture are more likely approaches to addressing these particular needs. Just my opinion, of course, but an opinion backed by decades of in-the-trenches work including recent direct collaboration with teams responsible for modern silicon design efforts.


Your knowlege of gpu history does not go back far enough. He was talking about 10 years ago.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
Your knowlege of gpu history does not go back far enough. He was talking about 10 years ago.

Considering I'm creeping up on 50, I'd say my first-hand familiarity with computing history goes back further than most here. Ten years ago is pretty recent as far as I'm concerned. FP16 was standardized as a format in 2008 following informal usage in a variety of standards and architectures. FP32 and FP64 were part of the IEEE 754 standard back in 1985.
 

onQ123

Member
Presented as a joke, but worth nothing that it's also completely revisionist history. FP16 was introduced long after FP32 and FP64 because it has narrow applications for which it is perfectly suited, but it's not a great general-purpose numeric format.

I'm not claiming there's no purpose for which coprocessors are well-suited in a modern architecture, just that the examples you've suggested so far don't look like prime candidates. Specialized instructions or other tweaks in either the GPU or CPU architecture are more likely approaches to addressing these particular needs. Just my opinion, of course, but an opinion backed by decades of in-the-trenches work including recent direct collaboration with teams responsible for modern silicon design efforts.

Yeah I know that I posted about it a year ago I was joking about people thinking that it was useless for gaming & other little remarks that was made when I brought it up , anyway I'm just speculating & giving examples of what can be done.



http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=219143648&postcount=286

You still can't gauge it by that quote either because there has been hardware & API changes to make better use of FP16 since the PS3 was developed.



They was just beginning to use it when PS3 was being thought of & they are just now adding native support for it in AMD PC cards & MS is using it with Direct3D 12 & shader model 6
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Half-precision_floating-point_format
 

AmyS

Member
I'll put my vote in for 2021. Ps4 is in its prime

If PS5 comes out Holiday 2021 in NA / Europe, 2022 in the rest of the world, it better be an absolutely freaking massive leap beyond PS4 and PS4 Pro.

5nm GAFFET chip node with EUV.

12 core/24 thread Zen3 CPU @ 3.5+ GHz

20+ Teraflop AMD Next Gen GPU

64 GB HBM3 / 2048 GB/s (aka 2 TB/s) bandwidth

fast SSD / large HDD
 

onQ123

Member
Considering I'm creeping up on 50, I'd say my first-hand familiarity with computing history goes back further than most here. Ten years ago is pretty recent as far as I'm concerned. FP16 was standardized as a format in 2008 following informal usage in a variety of standards and architectures. FP32 and FP64 were part of the IEEE 754 standard back in 1985.

Yeah & this is why I didn't get how people was making all the judgments about what PS4 Pro could & couldn't do with a 8.4TF fp16 GPU. To me this is a different world because it's the 1st time that devs would have this much of a reason to optimize for fp16 in bigger games & it's the 1st time that the fp16 is double rate for a non mobile level platform.
 
If PS5 comes out Holiday 2021 in NA / Europe, 2022 in the rest of the world, it better be an absolutely freaking massive leap beyond PS4 and PS4 Pro.

5nm GAFFET chip node with EUV.

12 core/24 thread Zen3 CPU @ 3.5+ GHz

20+ Teraflop AMD Next Gen GPU

64 GB HBM3 / 2048 GB/s (aka 2 TB/s) bandwidth

fast SSD / large HDD

lol man thats $800+ hardware you listed and im saying because dat Zen3 is predicted to come out in 2021/2022 and on arrival it will approx be $500-$750 and dat GPU and dat ram and you are forgetting production cost, there is no way in hell that the ps5 would be this powerfull, itll be something along 13-14 tera GPU and 7.5nm standard zen processor with 4.5+ Ghz something along the lines of 16 GB of GDDR6 and 2TB hardrive, and itll be $450 i believe to make it consumer friendly.
 
With regard reduced product life cycles in almost every industry 2021 is very unlikely, it would be longer than any gap before.

PS4 is now right in the middle of the maturity stage and a YOY decline in the next 1-2 years is basically inevitable, as they already reached mass market compatible price ranges. The Pro actually will do nothing else than to prolong that period for this gen, but not by that much.

What's more, Sony can't afford to leave the maturity stage without having a successor ready to go. PlayStation is one of their most important cash cows so they wont leave nothing to chance.
 

sneas78

Banned
It’s funny when the PS4 came out .. it did not look that much of a jump from PS3. But now I look back and it was a massive jump in my eyes. Can’t wait to see ps6 or ps7. Finally over that 50TF .... for Realizm. I have a GTX 1070.. and pc will hit that first, but excited overall for the future .. my bet .. ps5 is 16TF.
 

ffvorax

Member
I don't agree much about what he says.

PS4Slim and Pro will still be sold togheter, with slim cheaper of course.

PS5 in 2020 could be, but also 2019 is practicable, considering that when it comes out we will have at least another PS4 good year in terms of games coming out...
 
Don't get stuck on whether PS4 was easy to adopt or not. The costs at that point were still disproportionately high - divergent code-bases and wildly incompatible hw targets (not unlike past gens really).

I agree with you that Pro(or PC) have little to no impact on future transitions - if PS5 doesn't introduce a paradigm shift ("x86" does not preclude one), you get another iterative cycle with a simplified cross-gen out of the gate. If a shift occurs, cross-gen will have new challenges again.

Thanks for the correction. That certainly makes sense.

You can have specialized processors for middleware like Enlighten for the lighting & you can have specialized processors for middleware like Havok/PhysX/HairFX that's the type of things that can be offloaded because you know they will be used in just about every game. by the way it wasn't Shape & the Move engines that took up the die space on Xbox One it was the ESRAM , PS4 also had DSPs for the sound like the SHAPE engine.

Look at the XB1 APU die shot. The SHAPE block and MOVE engines certainly do take up die space. Sure not as much as eSRAM, but the point I'm making is that even a small amount of die-area dedicated to some on-die co-processor is in principle taking area away which could be used to devote more transistors to the GPU/CPU.

Also, I've never heard of specialized hardware for middle-ware solutions like Enlighten. What you're proposing sounds like a waste of silicon, as not all devs will use Enlighten or whatever other middle-ware solution you're trying to accelerate with fixed function or specialized hardware. It's far better to have more general processing cores that offer flexibility to developers and we already have that in the form of the CPU and GPU compute capability.

Can you give some examples of these specialized hardware blocks you're referring to?
 
ok then that's my fault lol. i thought you were suggesting that the PS4 Pro would hold the PS5 back simply because it existed and would be the perceived minimum once a PS5 released

No biggie, friend. I do it all the time. In a fast moving thread, with multiple things being discussed, it's sometimes tricky to parse what's what.
 
Mmmmhhh, I can almost taste the fpga...

Out of interest, wouldn't an FPGA in a console present a huge security risk?

...in terms of it being a vector for jailbreaking consoles, as well as with it being hardware, it's not a vulnerability that can simply be patched out in a software update.
 

Razgreez

Member
Presumably we'll start getting some idea of the actual specs through leaks /second hand info soon.

They must be communicating ball park specs to the devs around now or very soon.

I doubt one would year anything regarding PS5 until the PS4 growth starts to decline. For now they likely have range of possible specifications they are targeting and that target will keep shifting based on existing technologies and the strength of the available platform.

If anything developers are, at present, still being asked what they would like as opposed to being told what is potentially available - as per Sony and their technology partners' roadmap/blueprint. If PS4 development was anything to go buy then just-in-time finalization of PS5 specs is pivotal in ensuring a competitive edge.
 

c0de

Member
Out of interest, wouldn't an FPGA in a console present a huge security risk?

...in terms of it being a vector for jailbreaking consoles, as well as with it being hardware, it's not a vulnerability that can simply be patched out in a software update.

Well.. FPGAs, or better the binary that you put onto them, can be secured as every other "package" via signatures. Otherwise the industry would not use them ;)
Of course this could be an attack vector still.
It depends, like all signature checks in the end, on the actual implementation.
 

Lady Gaia

Member
Yeah & this is why I didn't get how people was making all the judgments about what PS4 Pro could & couldn't do with a 8.4TF fp16 GPU.

Sure, some pushed back simply because the feature wasn't on their preferred platform. More reasonable criticism points out that it's a misleading numbers game because in practice only a subset of computation can reasonably use FP16 in place of FP32. The most vigorous criticism doubtless stems from your repeated assertion that you expected Microsoft's 6TF numbers for Scorpio to describe FP16 performance, which was complete console warrior nonsense.
 
Sure, some pushed back simply because the feature wasn't on their preferred platform. More reasonable criticism points out that it's a misleading numbers game because in practice only a subset of computation can reasonably use FP16 in place of FP32. The most vigorous criticism doubtless stems from your repeated assertion that you expected Microsoft's 6TF numbers for Scorpio to describe FP16 performance, which was complete console warrior nonsense.

Thanks Lady Gaia... I just spat out my drink all over my desk.

That came out of nowhere... lol
 

BreakAtmo

Member
I'm just hoping that the Pro is serving as a training ground for devs working with checkerboard rendering and stuff like the 'temporal injection' in Ratchet & Clank and Spider-Man. Right now it's being used to take a not-that-powerful APU above its weight class and get impressive results on 4K tvs, but on the PS5 I really feel it could be used for efficiency and allow 60fps to become a standard again. Devs could offer checkerboard 4K at 60fps along with native 4K at 30fps, meeting both the hardcore gamer's desire for 60fps and the marketing team's desire to advertise “True Native 4K on every game!" (at least at first - I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony want to push graphical potential later down the line with a checkerboarded 30fps title). We also wouldn't have the issue of some games being hard-coded to 30fps.
 

onQ123

Member
Sure, some pushed back simply because the feature wasn't on their preferred platform. More reasonable criticism points out that it's a misleading numbers game because in practice only a subset of computation can reasonably use FP16 in place of FP32. The most vigorous criticism doubtless stems from your repeated assertion that you expected Microsoft's 6TF numbers for Scorpio to describe FP16 performance, which was complete console warrior nonsense.

It's not really misleading it's more of people being stuck in their ways because of what they are used to & I was trying to explain that things have changed & that was also my point of saying that if Scorpio was using a Vega GPU that 6TF number could have been the fp16 performance because you can't just take the flops number without context.

Right now if PS5 specs leak & it only say 16TF without saying if it's fp32 or fp16 I would tell people the same thing.
 

RoboPlato

I'd be in the dick
I'm just hoping that the Pro is serving as a training ground for devs working with checkerboard rendering and stuff like the 'temporal injection' in Ratchet & Clank and Spider-Man. Right now it's being used to take a not-that-powerful APU above its weight class and get impressive results on 4K tvs, but on the PS5 I really feel it could be used for efficiency and allow 60fps to become a standard again. Devs could offer checkerboard 4K at 60fps along with native 4K at 30fps, meeting both the hardcore gamer's desire for 60fps and the marketing team's desire to advertise “True Native 4K on every game!" (at least at first - I wouldn't be surprised to see Sony want to push graphical potential later down the line with a checkerboarded 30fps title). We also wouldn't have the issue of some games being hard-coded to 30fps.

I'm hoping that temporal injection becomes more widely adopted. Hoping Insomniac does a tech talk on it. Pro and XBX (to a lesser extent) are good for testing out these methods. I'm expecting adaptive res and reconstruction to remain common on next gen hardware given how taxing native 4k is and how nice those methods already are. On next gen hardware they should be even better.

If we can get something that looks like the Uncharted 4 60fps trailer on PS5 at a well reconstructed 4k I will be ecstatic.
 

c0de

Member
It's not really misleading it's more of people being stuck in their ways because of what they are used to & I was trying to explain that things have changed & that was also my point of saying that if Scorpio was using a Vega GPU that 6TF number could have been the fp16 performance because you can't just take the flops number without context.

Right now if PS5 specs leak & it only say 16TF without saying if it's fp32 or fp16 I would tell people the same thing.

There was never any reason to believe that the X would be 6tf with fp16.
 

onQ123

Member
There was never any reason to believe that the X would be 6tf with fp16.

When 6tf was the only spec you have & not knowing if they are using double rate fp16 like the upcoming AMD GPU you have to ask for context & that's what I did.

Even right now Sony could slap "8.4TF peak performance" on the PS4 Pro box & call it "the worlds most powerful console" we will always need context for things like that.
 

c0de

Member
When 6tf was the only spec you have & not knowing if they are using double rate fp16 like the upcoming AMD GPU you have to ask for context & that's what I did.

Even right now Sony could slap "8.4TF peak performance" on the PS4 Pro box & call it "the worlds most powerful console" we will always need context for things like that.

There was no reason for a console launching a year later to be inferior than the pro to be less powerful. You can always do console worrier role but it has to be regarded how it did. Extremely unlikely, not to say almost impossible.
But let's see what the speculation for the ps5 will offer in the future :)
 
That's not a PS2 situation, that's an every platform situation. They still make PS3/360 versions of FIFA today.

That's totally fair, I think I just picked the wrong example. I could swear that PS2 was getting "new" games way past the point anyone would have expected it to.


On a different note, how do ya'll think Sony will treat PSVR come PS5? Might we see a new version of it launch at the same time as the new console?
 

AmyS

Member
lol man thats $800+ hardware you listed and im saying because dat Zen3 is predicted to come out in 2021/2022 and on arrival it will approx be $500-$750 and dat GPU and dat ram and you are forgetting production cost, there is no way in hell that the ps5 would be this powerfull, itll be something along 13-14 tera GPU and 7.5nm standard zen processor with 4.5+ Ghz something along the lines of 16 GB of GDDR6 and 2TB hardrive, and itll be $450 i believe to make it consumer friendly.

Economics of scale? lol
 

onQ123

Member
There was no reason for a console launching a year later to be inferior than the pro to be less powerful. You can always do console worrier role but it has to be regarded how it did. Extremely unlikely, not to say almost impossible.
But let's see what the speculation for the ps5 will offer in the future :)

I don't understand the last part of your comment but yes a console can release a year later & still have a weaker GPU , PS3 had a weaker GPU than Xbox 360 at fp32.
 

c0de

Member
I don't understand the last part of your comment but yes a console can release a year later & still have a weaker GPU , PS3 had a weaker GPU than Xbox 360 at fp32.

But that was special hardware back then, we knew both companies use more or less of the shelf hardware from AMD. Even you knew because otherwise you would not had come up with fp16. Last gen has no say in this sub discussion.
 

RdN

Member
I really hope it's 2020 and no 19.

Give time for current tech to become cheaper and thus, having stronger consoles.
 

onQ123

Member
But that was special hardware back then, we knew both companies use more or less of the shelf hardware from AMD. Even you knew because otherwise you would not had come up with fp16. Last gen has no say in this sub discussion.

I'm being honest when I say I don't really understand your last 2 comments.
 
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