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[TheOfficeMut]

Can anyone give an estimate as to how low the price of a PS4 can realistically go in the coming years, assuming the cost of parts reduces. I'm not as knowledgeable with regard to tech as I wish I was, but how likely is it that the PS4 will reach $199 or even $99 like its predecessor, the PS2? Did the PS2 make a profit at these prices? Could parts be cheap enough in a PS4 for it also to be profitable at those prices?

 

[...Scatter...]

I'd be willing to bet EA wanted to hold out at close to full price for Black Friday but cut a better deal for this later time. Maximizing revenue.

 

[Jigolo]

SF5 - February
Uncharted 4 - March


damn. 45 million sold next by 2017 doesn't sound to far fetched

 

[gamechanger87]

Can anyone give an estimate as to how low the price of a PS4 can realistically go in the coming years, assuming the cost of parts reduces. I'm not as knowledgeable with regard to tech as I wish I was, but how likely is it that the PS4 will reach $199 or even $99 like its predecessor, the PS2? Did the PS2 make a profit at these prices? Could parts be cheap enough in a PS4 for it also to be profitable at those prices?

Look at PS3 and 360 for your answer. Just because BOM goes down, doesn't mean they will lower the prices accordingly.

 

[newjeruse]

SF5 - February
Uncharted 4 - March


damn. 45 million sold next by 2017 doesn't sound to far fetched

Should be at 50 million by 2017.

 

[fluffydelusions]

SF5 - February
Uncharted 4 - March


damn. 45 million sold next by 2017 doesn't sound to far fetched

Don't forget ds3. Not exclusive but it sells best on ps

 

[Jack The Nipper]

Can anyone give an estimate as to how low the price of a PS4 can realistically go in the coming years, assuming the cost of parts reduces. I'm not as knowledgeable with regard to tech as I wish I was, but how likely is it that the PS4 will reach $199 or even $99 like its predecessor, the PS2? Did the PS2 make a profit at these prices? Could parts be cheap enough in a PS4 for it also to be profitable at those prices?

Imo with the weak cpu, apu, larger clusters of ram often and other parts such as the discu drive being able to go cheaper. Not To mention higher sales and higher production can make room for cost savings.

I honestly believe they can hit 199. I wouldn't compare to the ps3 though.

They may never go 99 as they told investors they won't lose money in hardware. Unless they have more profits or something elsewhere

 

[Carl]

SF5 - February
Uncharted 4 - March


damn. 45 million sold next by 2017 doesn't sound to far fetched

They've topped 30million already, should be close to 35 million by the end of the month. 45 million is lowballing it really.

 

[Bolivar687]

You think they stay at $299 from here on out?

Yes, and they will credit it to an overwhelming response from gamers, just like MS did last year.

They really should have just gone all in at $299 at the start of the regular season with The Taken King and Metal Gear bundles. Teasing consumers with temporary promotions you plan to make permanent does not have the same impact as a significant milestone price drop.

 

[Thebeardofknowledge]

Can anyone give an estimate as to how low the price of a PS4 can realistically go in the coming years, assuming the cost of parts reduces. I'm not as knowledgeable with regard to tech as I wish I was, but how likely is it that the PS4 will reach $199 or even $99 like its predecessor, the PS2? Did the PS2 make a profit at these prices? Could parts be cheap enough in a PS4 for it also to be profitable at those prices?

I can see a $200 PS4 by 2019-2020

 

[Dash_Riprock]

Look at PS3 and 360 for your answer. Just because BOM goes down, doesn't mean they will lower the prices accordingly.

Bad comparison. PS3 has complex specialized hardware that was not utilized for anything other than the PS3 (Sony's grand dream of putting the Cell on Phones and TVs never materialized).

PS4 made used of off the shell computer parts. It was DESIGNED from the ground up to go down in price.

 

[Phil4000]

U.S. only or Canada as well?!

 

[Crimson_Gold]

Yes, and they will credit it to an overwhelming response from gamers, just like MS did last year.

They really should have just gone all in at $299 at the start of the regular season with The Taken King and Metal Gear bundles. Teasing consumers with temporary promotions you plan to make permanent does not have the same impact as a significant milestone price drop.

They wanted to maximize profits. The entire structure of these "promotions" show it is planned. Dropping early would have led people to expect 249 for bf and the holiday. That or insane bundles

U.S. only or Canada as well?!

No Canada. Blame Canada

 

[gamechanger87]

SF5 - February
Uncharted 4 - March


damn. 45 million sold next by 2017 doesn't sound to far fetched

In the grand scheme of things aren't fighting games dead? They don't move consoles the way they used to anymore. They died in the 360/PS3 generation. There are still some people who like them but those games have become very niche which is why you are seeing unique pricing structures with games like KI

Has the uncharted series ever been a big system seller? I swear I thought someone broke it down awhile ago.

Don't get me wrong, PS4 will still hit those numbers but I don't think it will be due to those games.

Edit:

UC3 released in November 2011 and the most accurate number I saw for PS3 was in the 900k range. By comparison, the 360 sole 1.7M that month.

The big games that released that month were Skyrim, COD MW3, AC Revelations and BF3. UC3 is said to have sold 6M copies but that is likely to the existing UC fan base not a bunch of new users.

 

[Bioshocker]

This is smart.

 

[Intrigue]

SF5 - February
Uncharted 4 - March


damn. 45 million sold next by 2017 doesn't sound to far fetched

You only expecting 10m sold next year?

That would be a catastrophic drop off in sales.

 

[Jigolo]

In the grand scheme of things aren't fighting games dead? They don't move consoles the way they used to anymore. They died in the 360/PS3 generation. There are still some people who like them but those games have become very niche which is why you are seeing unique pricing structures with games like KI

Has the uncharted series ever been a big system seller? I swear I thought CosmicQueso broke it down awhile ago.

Don't get me wrong, PS4 will still hit those numbers but I don't think it will be due to those games.

Well I called Uncharted 4 outselling Halo 5 in the US a few months back and still think it will happen: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178326356&postcount=678

I don't know the numbers and CosmicQueso probably laid out some beautiful data but Uncharted 4 is going to be HUGE. Bigger than any of the previous Uncharted's

 

[gamechanger87]

Bad comparison. PS3 has complex specialized hardware that was not utilized for anything other than the PS3 (Sony's grand dream of putting the Cell on Phones and TVs never materialized).

PS4 made used of off the shell computer parts. It was DESIGNED from the ground up to go down in price.

I know that the PS3 isn't a perfect comp, but look at the 360. As the life of the console drags on they aren't going to just drop the price as low as they can go. We are still seeing 360s and PS3s selling today far north of $100. They will never drop down to that level. They will take the margin.

 

[vpance]

Yes, and they will credit it to an overwhelming response from gamers, just like MS did last year.

They really should have just gone all in at $299 at the start of the regular season with The Taken King and Metal Gear bundles. Teasing consumers with temporary promotions you plan to make permanent does not have the same impact as a significant milestone price drop.

That's what I was thinking too. The impact of a $100 drop would've had a stronger and more lasting effect.

Unless of course, this whole $299 deal is only temporary, then it makes sense.

 

[gamechanger87]

Well I called Uncharted 4 outselling Halo 5 in the US a few months back and still think it will happen: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178326356&postcount=678

I don't know the numbers and CosmicQueso probably laid out some beautiful data but Uncharted 4 is going to be HUGE. Bigger than any of the previous Uncharted's

I'm going to dig around and look to see if it was from him. If not, I'll edit my post. I swear I saw someone do the work around this.

 

[LifEndz]

In the grand scheme of things aren't fighting games dead? They don't move consoles the way they used to anymore. They died in the 360/PS3 generation. There are still some people who like them but those games have become very niche which is why you are seeing unique pricing structures with games like KI

Has the uncharted series ever been a big system seller? I swear I thought CosmicQueso broke it down awhile ago.

Don't get me wrong, PS4 will still hit those numbers but I don't think it will be due to those games.

Fighting games definitely aren't as popular as they were in the 90's, but Street Fighter is the biggest fighting game of them all. I think it will absolutely move systems, and with the NDC exposing so many 360 owners to Uncharted, Uncharted will probably sell gangbusters as well. All this and Sony's first party studios have yet to really release the big guns.

 

[Bolivar687]

They wanted to maximize profits. The entire structure of these "promotions" show it is planned. Dropping early would have led people to expect 249 for bf and the holiday. That or insane bundles

I understand the intent but getting as many consumers in the door as possible at the beginning of the Fall games lineup is better for profitability. Better to have consumers looking at games at Black Friday rather than consoles.

 

[etta]

Microsoft going to have to get real creative with value-added, unless they go for $249. It will be interesting to see.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Man, Christmas day is going to see a ton more PS4 users on the service. I mean, $299 for essentially the rest of December? They are gonna sell a boatload.

And like someone said, Sony has to advertise PS4 Star Wars bundle in front of the movie. If they don't, someone in marketing fucked up tremendously. Probably won't be very cheap to do it, but fuck it.

 

[Primethius]

I'm going to dig around and look to see if it was from him. If not, I'll edit my post. I swear I saw someone do the work around this.

Depends on how you define big. I'll just quote a post I made relatively recently:

I went back and looked at the data, and UC4 will definitely break the 1 million barrier in the U.S.

Here's the data on Uncharted 1 to 3's opening month in the NPD:

UNCHARTED 1: DRAKE'S FORTUNE    [11/2007]: 117k
UNCHARTED 2: AMONG THIEVES      [10/2009]: 537k @ #1
UNCHARTED 3: DRAKE'S DECEPTION  [11/2011]: 700k @ #7

TLOU on PS3 opened to much higher numbers, likely due to it's critical acclaim and ND's name but it was still a brand new IP (which never pull numbers higher then established IPs typically):

LAST OF US, THE [06/2013]: 985k @ #1

In contrast, Infamous: Second Son pulled pretty respectable numbers a few months after PS4's launch despite it being non-numbered title in a series that has never been considered one of the big Sony IPs.

INFAMOUS: SECOND SON [03/2014]: <500k @ #2

UC4 will releasing in March, on the dominant console (in the NPD) and will likely follow the upward trajectory of UC sales. The critical acclaim of TLOU is also likely to help the title. Other then as a result of being a failure critically, anything less then a 1 million would honestly surprise me as a result.

It'll out do Halo 5 (due to the decline). Whether you consider the numbers impressive is up to you.

 

[Crimson_Gold]

I understand the intent but getting as many consumers in the door as possible at the beginning of the Fall games lineup is better for profitability. Better to have consumers looking at games at Black Friday rather than consoles.

They take advantage of the stores having special financing deals. There are other things to deal with like logistics. Sony is having stock issues in some areas. The $299 number came when they planned for it. The campaign between UC bundle and now this bundle will move plenty of software along the way.

 

[Crackbone]

That's what I was thinking too. The impact of a $100 drop would've had a stronger and more lasting effect.

Unless of course, this whole $299 deal is only temporary, then it makes sense.

I think it's more setting expectations.

If you go 299$ earlier this year, then you have to go lower on BF and for xmas.

IMO, 299$ was the actual cut (internally mind you for Xmas and 2016) but Sony structured it in a way to make it feel like a win for the consumer for Xmas.

This was a very calculated move and I will be shocked if it doesn't stick for 2016.

 

[Mikey Jr.]

Depends on how you define big. I'll just quote a post I made relatively recently:



It'll out do Halo 5 (due to the decline). Whether you consider the numbers impressive is up to you.

Dunno, I don't see UC4 hitting over a million. I honestly hope they do. The beta and the collection should help out a lot. But still. Might be tough.

 

[KZObsessed]

Good. They're gonna sell tons.

After this is finished hopefully they keep the standard PS4 sku at $299 through next year. Then $250 next holiday.

 

[gamechanger87]

Depends on how you define big. I'll just quote a post I made relatively recently:



It'll out do Halo 5 (due to the decline). Whether you consider the numbers impressive is up to you.

Great work and post!

I think the game will sell really well, but 1M is a really hard number to hit on one console in the first month especially in March. My comment was more around the games ability to be a system seller not its overall sales ability to the existing base.

Also from my earlier post:

UC3 released in November 2011 and the most accurate number I saw for PS3 was in the 900k range. By comparison, the 360 sole 1.7M that month.

The big games that released that month were Skyrim, COD MW3, AC Revelations and BF3. UC3 is said to have sold 6M copies but that is likely to the existing UC fan base not a bunch of new users.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

It doesn't have to be the official bundle. It can be a buy this console and get a game of your choice free!

They are limited and marketing the game and official pack in bundles. I think everything else is fair game. Sony doesn't have pure exclusivity on the game, just its marketing.

Yeah what you're saying is legit. The post I quoted tho said they could explicitly throw SWBF in there as the free game of choice. Made it sound like they'd outright mention it as the free game in such a promotion, which I feel wouldn't be legal of them to do.

What you're saying, is what they essentially did last year w/ Destiny.

They've topped 30million already, should be close to 35 million by the end of the month. 45 million is lowballing it really.

Yeah, at this pace they could be looking at 60-65 million by end of 2016. Don't console sales usually tend to pick around Year 3?

 

[Bolivar687]

Depends on how you define big. I'll just quote a post I made relatively recently:



It'll out do Halo 5 (due to the decline). Whether you consider the numbers impressive is up to you.

Damn.

Only a few months ago, this was utter madness. Now it's all but certain that Uncharted will have a bigger debut than Halo.

 

[vpance]

I think it's more setting expectations.

If you go 299$ earlier this year, then you have to go lower on BF and for xmas.

IMO, 299$ was the actual cut (internally mind you for Xmas and 2016) but Sony structured it in a way to make it feel like a win for the consumer for Xmas.

This was a very calculated move and I will be shocked if it doesn't stick for 2016.

Yeah it was definitely very calculated, and when you put it this way it was a middle ground of choices in price cut strategy. Maybe even the optimal, but who knows since we're all just speculating here. Either way, I'm expecting $299 for 2016 as well. A first cut this gen of only $50 is just too weak.

 

[sense]

The people in here thinking these companies give a tiny rat's ass about who 'wins' Black Friday are cracking me up.

They both are selling absolute gangbusters and are making money hand over fist. You think sony just launched this Battlefront pricedrop completely out of nowhere because Microsoft might have sold a handful more units? What does 'winning black friday' do for any of these companies anyway? It's completely meaningless aside from sales-GAF fun.

i honestly don't think MS is making money hand over fist with some black friday deals including a 3rd party game like fallout with the 299 bundle alongside gift cards. I am sure Sony is not raking in the money at the 299 price point either but their average selling price would probably land in the 270 range while ms lands in the 240 range. obviously i am speculating here.

 

[kswiston]

No Canada. Blame Canada

$429 CAD is basically $320 USD. We'll get another $20-30 price drop if Sony decided to keep the $299 price for their 500GB model early next year.

Can't wait for the PS4 to be launch price in Canada again after 2 price cuts!

 

[kswiston]

It'll out do Halo 5 (due to the decline). Whether you consider the numbers impressive is up to you.

1M+ for Uncharted 4 in the US would definitely be impressive. Sony has only had one first party game break 1M copies in its first month in 20 years (God of War 3).

 

[Kirye]

That 350$ PS4 bundle I bought 2 weeks ago is just seriously mocking me right now.

 

[Jagernaut]

Can anyone give an estimate as to how low the price of a PS4 can realistically go in the coming years, assuming the cost of parts reduces. I'm not as knowledgeable with regard to tech as I wish I was, but how likely is it that the PS4 will reach $199 or even $99 like its predecessor, the PS2? Did the PS2 make a profit at these prices? Could parts be cheap enough in a PS4 for it also to be profitable at those prices?

I don't think a console with a built in hard drive will ever get to $99 other than a clearance sale. $199 will happen eventually though.

 

[Bluenoser]

What IF NX outsells Ps4?

Launch month or every month? Because I don't think anyone would argue that NX will destroy everything in it's path the month it launches.

 

[gamechanger87]

i honestly don't think MS is making money hand over fist with some black friday deals including a 3rd party game like fallout with the 299 bundle alongside gift cards. I am sure Sony is not raking in the money at the 299 price point either but their average selling price would probably land in the 270 range while ms lands in the 240 range. obviously i am speculating here.

Neither side really makes money on the HW side even if its not at a loss. They want you to sub up to Live/PSN.

 

[sense]

That 350$ PS4 bundle I bought 2 weeks ago is just seriously mocking me right now.

imagine the people buying an xb1 for 499 at launch and then looking at the deals that happened on black friday last year and this year lol. i know early adopters get screwed but it still gotta hurt

Neither side really makes money on the HW side even if its not at a loss. They want you to sub up to Live/PSN.

speaking of which the lowest plus went down last week was for 40 and live went down to 30. ms losing extra in that deal as well!!

 

[mejin]

Launch month or every month? Because I don't think anyone would argue that NX will destroy everything in it's path the month it launches.

Careful. We don't know nothing yet. People won't buy crap. Just sayin'

 

[gundamkyoukai]

The big games that released that month were Skyrim, COD MW3, AC Revelations and BF3. UC3 is said to have sold 6M copies but that is likely to the existing UC fan base not a bunch of new users.

UC3 has sold more than 6 million copies .

 

[EthanC]

Microsoft going to have to get real creative with value-added, unless they go for $249. It will be interesting to see.

IMO they need to take their own Black Friday weekend deal and give it to major retailers (50 dollars off, free game, 60 dollar store credit).

 

[mejin]

IMO they need to take their own Black Friday weekend deal and give it to major retailers (50 dollars off, free game, 60 dollar store credit).

They will bleed money this way as much as last year.

 

[Winnie the Pimp]

I feel like there is no bundle out right now for me I already played all the Uncharteds on PS3 and have no interest in the remakes and since i don't do multiplayer, the Battlefront one does nothing for me either...

Is there no other bundle on the horizon now?

 

[Katana_Strikes]

Wow advertising this at $299 in front of the film is going to make a killing.

Very good timing and planning. Shame there is no single player still as I think the multiplayer will greatly limit the audience overall. There was a perfect opportunity that they missed there. However, I guess looking at the lack of content in the game as it stands adding a campaign would have meant missing the film launch.

 

[Bluenoser]

Careful. We don't know nothing yet. People won't buy crap. Just sayin'

Guess it depends when it launches. Nov-Dec it would be in a fight. Any other time, regardless of the quality, it will take the month easily by virtue of it being new to the market.

 

[Flo_Evans]

Ack I just bought a battlefront bundle >_<

 

[Bgamer90]

I can't see how the early 2016 exclusive games on the PS4 will greatly boost PS4 sales during those particular months when the system is at this price during such a busy shopping period. That is unless Sony keeps the PS4 at this price.

If Sony raises the price back up then now is pretty much the best time to buy a PS4 if you are interested in the 2016 games.