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Quinnipiac Iowa GOP Poll : Cruzin' down the street in my 6-4...

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huge bump for Cruz, even if he doesnt win Iowa his hype is real,sorry Gaf :(

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-...rsity-poll/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=2305
Nov 16-22

Iowa

Trump 25% +5
Cruz 23% +13
Carson 18% -10
Rubio 13% 0
Paul 5%
Jeb! 4% - 1
Fiorina 3%

IOWA 10/22

Carson 28%
Trump 20%
Rubio 13%
Cruz 10%
Paul 6%
Jeb! 5%
Fiorina 5%
Kasich 5%
Jindal 3%
Huckabee 2%
Christie 1%

Donald Trump gets 25 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in a too-close-to- call race with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas who is at 23 percent, double his support from four weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 18 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 13 percent.

This compares to the results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Carson at 28 percent, with 20 percent for Trump, Rubio at 13 percent and Cruz at 10 percent.

One thing that hasn't changed is the poor showing for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who goes from 5 percent October 22 to 4 percent today.

Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 5 percent, with Carly Fiorina at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent, with 2 percent undecided.

Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 26 percent say they "would definitely not support" Bush, with 23 percent saying "no way" to Trump.


"Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight. Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The Iowa Republican Caucus has become a two-tiered contest: Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants give Carson the best favorability rating, 79 - 15 percent, with 73 - 15 percent for Cruz, 70 - 18 percent for Rubio and 59 - 34 percent for Trump. Bush has a negative 39 - 53 percent favorability rating.

The economy and jobs are the most important issues in deciding who they will support, 24 percent of GOP caucus-goers say, with 15 percent each for terrorism and foreign policy, 11 percent for the federal deficit and 10 percent for immigration.

Trump can best handle the economy, 49 percent of Republicans say, with 11 percent picking Cruz. Carson, Rubio and Fiorina are the choice of 6 percent each.

Trump is tops handling terrorism, 30 percent of Republican Caucus-goers say, with 20 percent for Cruz, 10 percent for Rubio and 7 percent for Bush. Carson, Paul and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie are at 5 percent each.

Cruz is best on foreign policy, 24 percent of Republicans say, with 18 percent for Trump, 15 percent for Rubio and 8 percent for Bush. Carson and Paul are at 6 percent each.


Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants oppose 81 - 15 percent allowing Syrian refugees into the U.S. and oppose 82 - 13 percent allowing them into Iowa.


Republicans support 73 - 22 percent sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria and say 83 - 9 percent that the U.S. and its allies are losing the fight against ISIS.

A total of 88 percent of Republicans are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the possibility of a terrorist attack in the U.S. similar to the attack in Paris.

"One thing almost all Iowa Republicans agree upon is that Syrian refugees should not be allowed into the United States or into Iowa," Brown said.
 
I find it hilarious how static Rubio's polling is across the board both nationally and at the state level. Yet the press keeps predicting he'll surge any day now!
 

noshten

Member
No wonder Rubio is also using bigoted and racist remarks - that's what the Republicans want.

Anyhow what I said months ago seems to hold truth, Cruz aligned himself with Trump and is now picking up any support Carson had. It's going to be either Cruz/Trump or Trump/Cruz ticket. Real easy for Clinton or Sanders, provided more than 50% of the population votes.
 
Trump + Carson + Cruz = 66%. That's a record for a Quinnipiac Iowa poll. YouGov had them at 70% combined.

Trump is making the Republican electorate more anti-establishment as the months go on (whereas the conventional wisdom has always been that voters start getting serious after Labor Day). Will be interesting to see how someone like Rubio can overcome that.
 

HylianTom

Banned
I want to see what happens when Trump is forced to face Cruz as a competitor. They've been conspicuously avoiding any outright attacks on each other since that meeting they had back in July at Trump Tower.

This could be very telling as far as running mate discussion is concerned.
 

Diablos

Member
I think there's a good chance of Trump vs. Rubio for the nomination. Outsider vs. establishment.

If Rubio wins, watch out Hillary.
 

tokkun

Member
Cruz should probably be considered the Iowa frontrunner at this point. Iowa has a history of going for candidates like this, and he will probably have a ground advantage vs Trump if he sows up the evangelical vote. I don't know if Cruz will be able to tap into the other big permanent ground operation in Iowa (the local establishment politicians), but he has a much better chance than Trump does.

I want to see what happens when Trump is forced to face Cruz as a competitor. They've been conspicuously avoiding any outright attacks on each other since that meeting they had back in July at Trump Tower.

This could be very telling as far as running mate discussion is concerned.

I still don't buy Trump as the nominee, and Cruz is too smart to put Trump on his ticket.
 
The one refreshing thing about these numbers is the knowledge that many more reasonable Republican voters have already given up on all the nominees, so while the crazies may have higher percentages, they have smaller numbers than they need to win the general.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
A Christian Conservative doing well in the Iowa caucus doesn't signify much of anything.

It's not Cruz doing well insofar as it is the Trump/Cruz/Carson triumvirate. They are all very much 'outsider' candidates disliked by their own establishment, and yet between them they are dominating the primary season so far. All the major shifts seem to be between these three candidates - e.g., Trump shed some voters to Carson, Carson has now shed some to Cruz, but there's no sign of votes going from these three to Rubio or Jeb, the heirs apparent before the primary season kicked open.
 
It's not Cruz doing well insofar as it is the Trump/Cruz/Carson triumvirate. They are all very much 'outsider' candidates disliked by their own establishment, and yet between them they are dominating the primary season so far. All the major shifts seem to be between these three candidates - e.g., Trump shed some voters to Carson, Carson has now shed some to Cruz, but there's no sign of votes going from these three to Rubio or Jeb, the heirs apparent before the primary season kicked open.

I don't put much stock into the anti-establishment stuff. In fact, I don't think it means anything. Conservatives are preached to all day from the conservative entertainment complex to distrust government and party leadership, so that's what they do. When it comes down to the election, it will be someone picked by the party, and that's who they'll support.

Trump is a famous TV star. Carson, while not as famous, is a public figure who has a widely read autobiography. Cruz was practically raised to be a Christian Conservative politician.
 
You've got two months until the Iowa caucus.

Its time some of these people drop out in order to spare embarrassment.

Pretty sure Cruz wins Iowa.

They seem to like backward theocrats most of all.

IIRC Santorum won Iowa last time around and Huckabee before that.

Both are absurdly irrelevant this time around.
 

Interfectum

Member
lol @ jeb

WhfnHGl.gif
 

kittoo

Cretinously credulous
I am not American so pardon if I am missing something, but I had a question.

Looking at general mood, polls and demographics, it looks almost impossible that the Republican party would win the presidential elections. It seems a lock for the dems, then why are people so interested in Repub nominations and why are the Republican politicians wasting millions of dollars when they know that they are not going to win presidential elections anyway?
Or is it that its a much closer race between Dems and GOP than I thought?
 

Makai

Member
I am not American so pardon if I am missing something, but I had a question.

Looking at general mood, polls and demographics, it looks almost impossible that the Republican party would win the presidential elections. It seems a lock for the dems, then why are people so interested in Repub nominations and why are the Republican politicians wasting millions of dollars when they know that they are not going to win presidential elections anyway?
Or is it that its a much close race between Dems and GOP than I thought?
Republicans have at least a 40% chance of winning.
 
I am not American so pardon if I am missing something, but I had a question.

Looking at general mood, polls and demographics, it looks almost impossible that the Republican party would win the presidential elections. It seems a lock for the dems, then why are people so interested in Repub nominations and why are the Republican politicians wasting millions of dollars when they know that they are not going to win presidential elections anyway?
Or is it that its a much closer race between Dems and GOP than I thought?
because it' s entertaining
 

HylianTom

Banned
I am not American so pardon if I am missing something, but I had a question.

Looking at general mood, polls and demographics, it looks almost impossible that the Republican party would win the presidential elections. It seems a lock for the dems, then why are people so interested in Repub nominations and why are the Republican politicians wasting millions of dollars when they know that they are not going to win presidential elections anyway?
Or is it that its a much closer race between Dems and GOP than I thought?
The fundamentals of the race sit squarely on the side of the Democrats, but if there's a major terror attack or a sudden economic slowdown, we're in for a really tight race where the GOP really could take it.
 
I am not American so pardon if I am missing something, but I had a question.

Looking at general mood, polls and demographics, it looks almost impossible that the Republican party would win the presidential elections. It seems a lock for the dems, then why are people so interested in Repub nominations and why are the Republican politicians wasting millions of dollars when they know that they are not going to win presidential elections anyway?
Or is it that its a much close race between Dems and GOP than I thought?

GAF and Reddit have mostly educated and young people on them. These people, by a pretty high margin, support progressive causes and vote Democratic.

Unfortunately, the US has a lot of old, religious bigots (concentrated around the Southeastern part of the country) who fear science and reason. These yokels are dumb enough to vote against their own interests because they are paralyzed by their own prejudices.

The bigots are fed a constant stream of vitriol toward immigrants, gays and blacks via their own media outlets and have a MUCH higher voter turnout than younger people and that's why you can never count out the Republican party.
 

kittoo

Cretinously credulous
because it' s entertaining

The fundamentals of the race sit squarely on the side of the Democrats, but if there's a major terror attack or a sudden economic slowdown, we're in for a really tight race where the GOP really could take it.

Doesnt really explain why the Reoubs themselves would waste so much money. Entertainment and something drastic happening are not solid reasons. It seems weird.

Republicans have at least a 40% chance of winning.

If this is true than its much closer than I thought.
 
I am not American so pardon if I am missing something, but I had a question.

Looking at general mood, polls and demographics, it looks almost impossible that the Republican party would win the presidential elections. It seems a lock for the dems, then why are people so interested in Repub nominations and why are the Republican politicians wasting millions of dollars when they know that they are not going to win presidential elections anyway?
Or is it that its a much closer race between Dems and GOP than I thought?

The Democratic base might be larger but the Republican base is more politically involved and motivated to vote. So elections are always close.
 
One interesting question: Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?

Bush 26% (+5)
Trump 23% (-7)
Kasich 19% (+10)
Graham 15% (+0)
Christie 14% (+0)
No one 27% (-3)

Kasich didn't make any friends after the last debate. Seems talking shit about his party had an adverse affect, who would've guessed? People are warming up to the idea of Trump.

Jeb's shitty approval numbers compared to others:
Jeb - Fav 39 (-4), Unfav 53 (+2)
Trump - Fav 59 (+6), Unfav 34 (-9)
Cruz - Fav 73 (+8), Unfav 15 (-3)
Rubio - Fav 70 (+0), Unfav 18 (+3)

No one likes Jeb.
 

Kusagari

Member
If Cruz can win Iowa and get at least a fraction of the Carson/Trump support to switch to him as he looks like the "presumptive nominee" then he could turn into a juggernaut that rides it to the nomination.

Cruz is a serious threat at this point, which is good for Democrats because he's by far the most unelectable candidate.
 
One interesting question: Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president?

Bush 26% (+5)
Trump 23% (-7)
Kasich 19% (+10)
Graham 15% (+0)
Christie 14% (+0)
No one 27% (-3)

Kasich didn't make any friends after the last debate. Seems talking shit about his party had an adverse affect, who would've guessed? People are warming up to the idea of Trump.

Jeb's shitty approval numbers compared to others:
Jeb - Fav 39 (-4), Unfav 53 (+2)
Trump - Fav 59 (+6), Unfav 34 (-9)
Cruz - Fav 73 (+8), Unfav 15 (-3)
Rubio - Fav 70 (+0), Unfav 18 (+3)

No one likes Jeb.
hes got no choice but to wait till iowa/nh
 

C0unter

Member
Cruz looks so dam slimey and villainous, idk what it is about him. Isn't he also the guy who wants to return to the gold standard?
 
Cruz is a terrible candidate right now, because he's still branded with fault for the unpopular government shutdown a few years ago (and yes, because he looks like a melted wax figure of Joseph McCarthy), but all it would take to make the race competitive is a mild economic downturn and some kind of ISIS activity in the United States.
 
My only fear at this point is if an establishment Republican wins, like Rubio, he'll look so much more moderate than Trump that he might be appealing to voters. Even though he's not, it may give him the appearance of some third way, middle of the road, compromise candidate when he can be compared to Trump/Cruz and one side and Hillary/Sanders on the other.

I'm probably worrying over nothing though.
 

Blader

Member
I could maybe see a Trump/Cruz ticket, but I really don't see Trump making himself anyone's VP.

I am not American so pardon if I am missing something, but I had a question.

Looking at general mood, polls and demographics, it looks almost impossible that the Republican party would win the presidential elections. It seems a lock for the dems, then why are people so interested in Repub nominations and why are the Republican politicians wasting millions of dollars when they know that they are not going to win presidential elections anyway?
Or is it that its a much closer race between Dems and GOP than I thought?

Conservatives are interested in the GOP primaries because they want to win the White House and are tone deaf about why that's unlikely with the current crop of candidates. Liberals just like the show.

Republicans are spending millions of dollars on presidential runs for the same reason as above, but also for motivating the base and setting a party agenda for Congress, mid-term elections, local elections, governorships, etc.

Cruz is a terrible candidate right now, because he's still branded with fault for the unpopular government shutdown a few years ago (and yes, because he looks like a melted wax figure of Joseph McCarthy), but all it would take to make the race competitive is a mild economic downturn and some kind of ISIS activity in the United States.

Conservatives don't look at that as a fault, and liberals weren't going to vote for Cruz anyway. It's only a problem with moderates, who likely have plenty of other reasons not to vote Cruz anyway.
 

PBY

Banned
Fact check me

I think its just too early; look at Paris, so much can happen so fast that can change the "issue" of the election.

Sure, Trump (and probably Cruz) have no real shot, but its naive to think that Hillary in a landslide is all but guaranteed.
 
Conservatives don't look at that as a fault, and liberals weren't going to vote for Cruz anyway. It's only a problem with moderates, who likely have plenty of other reasons not to vote Cruz anyway.

Uh, did I say it was a problem with anybody other than moderates? Are moderates not the voters that matter, especially in swing states?
 

Par Score

Member
I would dearly love to believe that none of these clowns have a shot at the White House, but with the way the Electoral Colledge works, that's just not true.

It's probably not 50-50, but I'm not sure I'd even go as far as 60-40 in the Dem's favour, regardless of who the Rep's candidate ends up being. That's still scarily close.
 

OceanBlue

Member
Uh, did I say it was a problem with anybody other than moderates? Are moderates not the voters that matter, especially in swing states?
IIRC with the increasing amount of polarization, rallying your base to vote is more important than getting moderate voters. You get more return targeting ads to people who agree with you than people who need to be convinced.
 
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