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Rumor: Prey 2 cancelled, official statement due next week [Up: ZeniMax: No comment.]

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Muzzy

Member
This better not be true. It would have been their first non-internal game to not bomb (with Dishonored).

If it's true, quick Square Enix, buy the publishing rights change the title and that's it.
 

inky

Member
Anyway since we are talking about predictions and stuff I predicted this sort of shit 2 years ago
the discussion starts with post #22. And don't forget that they bought Mikami too, lol.

Pfff... I predicted Ninja Gaiden 3 was going to be crap and look :p

Seriously though, it seems you were right. They were focusing on the wrong kind of properties, commercially speaking. Too bad that it always seem to be the case with the industry that, with creative lenience, there is always a less than stellar commercial record. I guess there's always exceptions, but still. This is truly a market that doesn't reward innovation like it should. hope they reconsider and give this game a chance in the future.
 

KKRT00

Member
BTW can someone explain why its better to cancel almost finished product You've already put money into instead of just release it digitally in cut form?
For me it would be no-brainer to publish something as a smaller title to recoup some costs.
 

Mifune

Mehmber
Damn, this was one of my favorite games at E3. Granted, the demo was highly controlled and didn't really give much indication of how far along into development they were, but it was still incredibly impressive.

Maybe it was a little TOO ambitious, though, and Human Head was in over their heads. To my knowledge nobody had actually PLAYED it yet.
 

subversus

I've done nothing with my life except eat and fap
BTW can someone explain why its better to cancel almost finished product You've already put money into then release it digitally or in cut form?
For me it would be no-brainer to publish something as a smaller title to recoup some costs.

They have to market it which is more expensive than a game sometimes and they have to produce discs.
 
Honestly the game doesn't have to be Prey 2. Could the developers somehow "lose" the code and development sheets they were working on to another studio; so that they could continue the project just under a different name?
 

Shiggy

Member
What other projects do you think look like Prey 2?

Let me see.

prey-2-20110818105328712_640w.jpg

rage-20110802045921482_640w.jpg
mass-effect-3-20111027000149343_640w.jpg


etc.
 

Shiggy

Member
BTW can someone explain why its better to cancel almost finished product You've already put money into instead of just release it digitally in cut form?
For me it would be no-brainer to publish something as a smaller title to recoup some costs.

That happens more often than you think. Take Nintendo as an example. They fully translated the DS game ASH with all voices and so on, but never released it. Various N64 were also finished, but Nintendo did not release them. Marketing and distribution costs should not be underestimated! And who knows how far Prey 2 was along.
 

Zeliard

Member
I feel that one is a hard call.

On the one hand:

-They have a history of cancellations and production mismanagement.
-Their successes are almost always sequels that have a worse Metacritic, which as we found out, is very important to publishers.
-This quote:


Source: http://www.joystiq.com/2012/03/15/obsidian-missed-fallout-new-vegas-metacritic-bonus-by-one-point/

On the other hand:

-They're the only notable independent RPG developer that seems to be willing to take contract work.
-RPGs are pretty popular.

-Dungeon Siege 3 was on time and not that buggy.

So, I think the question for the near term is more "Will they get to work on projects more encouraging than Dungeon Siege games?" than "Will they survive?".

Mid and long term, well, I think we need to see how things shake out once the next generation starts.

I imagine Obsidian will still be able to find work specifically due to the bolded. Sega came to them because they wanted an RPG to fill out their portfolio. Likewise, Parker and Stone because they wanted Obsidian to be the one to create an RPG version of their South Park IP. Though given the problems THQ is having, and the recent layoffs to some in the SP team, it remains to be seen what happens with that one.

It's unusual enough for a quality RPG developer to take contracts that it should allow them some room to breathe. It just may mean that Obsidian will have to take work they may have otherwise turned down in the past for whatever reasons, though as an independent developer there probably aren't many examples of those. They generally have to take what they can get, and all the hassle that comes with it.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Anyway since we are talking about predictions and stuff I predicted this sort of shit 2 years ago
the discussion starts with post #22. And don't forget that they bought Mikami too, lol.

Right, I agree with your assessment that this strategy was a very risky one, and so far it hasn't gone very well for them.

Following up on the Dishonored video though:

The Good:
-207,635 views on YouTube, mostly likes, so at least the pitch they make while talking is having a good effect so far.
-The game does sound fairly unique in today's industry.
-There are similar games that have performed well.

The Bad:
-They're still talking about the game instead of showing the game. How the game looks when actually played will be a big factor in how marketable it can be.
-The character art style is fairly risky.
-The game seems to be headed for Fall along with two other assassination games (Assassin's Creed 3, Hitman: Absolution) and another period piece (BioShock: Infinite). That's a lot of competition for the same potential audience at the same time, with at least two of those being surefire sellers.
-Following up your earlier sales prediction, ZeniMax's goal is to sell a very large amount with each release:

GameSpot said:
GameSpot: But right now, id's mobile efforts are going to be focused on iOS.

John Carmack: It does come down to just our total manpower on there. I made the decision finally, that OK, we should start doing Android stuff, but then we hired a guy to work on Android and wound up putting him on iOS stuff. I think we can make pretty good money on any of these things, but our iOS stuff, to a large degree, is ZeniMax humoring me because the ZeniMax strategy is to look for the home runs. They want the AAA titles that are going to go out in many, many millions of units. And I'm like, "Hey, we made a half a million dollars here, a half a million dollars there, it pays everybody's salaries," and it's a little bit of a technology for me to prototype new directions. And it's fun!
As such, 1-2 million units would likely be disappointing, especially given that this game has been in development for a long time.

I remain pessimistic that Dishonored will live up to their expectations, especially when Brink didn't with its opening NPD of 401K sans PC and Rage didn't (to the point id had layoffs) with an opening NPD of 550K units.

Were this 2009 or 2010, or even in a less competitive time of the year, I would be much more optimistic.
 

WhyMe6

Member
Damn, I guess there was a reason for cancelling it. As someone who hasn't even finished the first Prey, the sequel was in easily in my Top 5 most anticipated for 2012 (even with what little we had seen) :(
 

Mifune

Mehmber
Dishonored reminds me a lot of Prey 2, actually...an incredibly ambitious concept that almost sounds too good to be true. Let's hope that one makes the cut at least.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Dishonored reminds me a lot of Prey 2, actually...an incredibly ambitious concept that almost sounds too good to be true. Let's hope that one makes the cut at least.

I feel since ZeniMax owns the studio, it is almost guaranteed to come out.

Dishonored 2 is a much more up in the air concept in my mind, especially since that one will have to be on next-gen platforms instead of a quick iteration sequel on existing platforms.
 

ctrayne

Member
Dishonored reminds me a lot of Prey 2, actually...an incredibly ambitious concept that almost sounds too good to be true. Let's hope that one makes the cut at least.

God, I hope so.

Dishonored 2 is a much more up in the air concept in my mind, especially since that one will have to be on next-gen platforms instead of a quick iteration sequel on existing platforms.

I'll just be happy with a Dishonored 1 for now.
 

subversus

I've done nothing with my life except eat and fap
]:

especially when Brink didn't with its opening NPD of 401K sans PC and Rage didn't (to the point id had layoffs) with an opening NPD of 550K units.

But these games were shit/mediocre. The reality is that well-marketed or bland-looking shit tanks fast even if initial sales were high. If Bethesda does reviews right and it hits above 90s at MC it will do rather well. Also it will do well in Europe and on PC if they don't fuck up the port.

I do agree about competiton though. Hitman and Bioshock are in the same niche.
 

Nizz

Member
Damn. So all that's left is Zenimax basically confirming what we already know. :( What a shame, game looked awesome. Loved the setting, loved the Mirror's Edge-like movement. Not too many games (that I know of) that have you play as a bounty hunter. It's too bad...
 

Zeliard

Member
-The game seems to be headed for Fall along with two other assassination games (Assassin's Creed 3, Hitman: Absolution) and another period piece (BioShock: Infinite). That's a lot of competition for the same potential audience at the same time, with at least two of those being surefire sellers.

The only risk for market competition is Bioshock due to the setting and certain gameplay concepts. It's far different from something like AC3 or Hitman.

Read this interview:

http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2011/08/22/dishonored-interview/

Dishonored would have had a tougher time going up against something like DX:HR.
 

Totobeni

An blind dancing ho
if there is a chance of True Crime/Sleeping Dogs situation again,I think Rockstar/2K will love to get a game like this (they also published the first),and I think it's easy to cut the connections to Prey IP since -iirc- it's not that related to the first one.

I just hope the cancellation don't kill the studio before another publisher pick it up.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
But these games were shit/mediocre. The reality is that well-marketed or bland-looking shit tanks fast even if initial sales were high. If Bethesda does reviews right and it hits above 90s at MC it will do rather well. Also it will do well in Europe and on PC if they don't fuck up the port.

I do agree about competiton though. Hitman and Bioshock are in the same niche.

There really aren't that many games that hit that though.

I do agree that Europe is a healthier market for the game, but I feel there's also the question of expectations here.

How much do you think they want the game to sell? It's been in development since around 2009, and Arkane isn't a hole in the wall studio size wise.

The only risk for market competition is Bioshock due to the setting and certain gameplay concepts. It's far different from something like AC3 or Hitman.

Read this interview:

http://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2011/08/22/dishonored-interview/

Dishonored would have had a tougher time going up against something like DX:HR.

I agree the game is quite different, but I think that consumer perspective is also important here when you want a bigger hit.

Like, on paper it's an assassination game, and if that's the first thing you tell people in a 30 second TV commercial, they won't necessarily assume it's very different from other choices.

This is a hard one from a messaging perspective.

There's also just the limited money and time factor. If I'm buying BioShock and Assassin's Creed at launch, that's $120 and a lot of hours less I have to buy and play Dishonored.

If the game was out in April however, that's not an issue.
 
Duke Nukem Forever mostly had Gearbox's stamp on it as opposed to Gearbox's developers.

Triptych Games was one of the leading forces behind actually finishing the project.

sorry, it was an extremely timid troll of me, because i was 3 posts down from a mod post and don't want to get banned.

but in all seriousness i WAS NOT looking forward to this game, but it's still sad that it is probably canned. hopefully someone else will step forward to help get it done but i have no idea how far along it is.

:\
 

Zeliard

Member
I agree the game is quite different, but I think that consumer perspective is also important here when you want a bigger hit.

Like, on paper it's an assassination game, and if that's the first thing you tell people in a 30 second TV commercial, they won't necessarily assume it's very different from other choices.

Definitely remains to be seen how they market it, but I don't think it will live and die based on television marketing. That will have impact, no doubt, but these days it's easier to get a game's name out there than relying so heavily on marketing in the form of television ads.

Titles like these can do fairly well by generating positive word-of-mouth. The game could end up commercially unsuccessful, of course, but I think if it's a good game and reviews well, people will largely go for it. It's more rare these days that a good game just falls under-the-radar due to the spread of information. Now whether it hits whatever mark Zenimax wants it to hit is another matter.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
sorry, it was an extremely timid troll of me, because i was 3 posts down from a mod post and don't want to get banned.

but in all seriousness i WAS NOT looking forward to this game, but it's still sad that it is probably canned. hopefully someone else will step forward to help get it done but i have no idea how far along it is.

:\

Oh there's no issue with your post.

A lot of people do think Gearbox made the game!

I wonder what the chances are of a Summer release instead?

I think that would be a good idea, but there is the double edged sword of games usually selling less then.

---

Also, on the note of Arkane Studios, their website has a big hiring sign: http://www.arkane-studios.com/uk/index.php

However, ZeniMax's job site has zero postings for them: http://jobs.zenimax.com/

That may not mean too much, but it is a sign that they were growing, yet have now completely stopped for some reason.
 
what if this is like when the Green Ranger died but Tommy returned as the White Ranger. Like the name is changed to something stupid like Preydator or Sid Meier's Alien Bounty Hunter. Re-announcement trailer has some skrillex in there.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Definitely remains to be seen how they market it, but I don't think it will live and die based on television marketing. That will have impact, no doubt, but these days it's easier to get a game's name out there than relying so heavily on marketing in the form of television ads.

Titles like these can do fairly well by generating positive word-of-mouth. The game could end up commercially unsuccessful, of course, but I think if it's a good game and reviews well, people will largely go for it. It's more rare these days that a good game just falls under-the-radar due to the spread of information. Now whether it hits whatever mark Zenimax wants it to hit is another matter.

Right, if their goal was really only 1-2 million with a ~$30 average selling point, I wouldn't be very worried.

However, ZeniMax runs fairly big expectations as a publisher. Hopefully they've become more realistic, but then again, games do cost a lot, and this one has been going on for a while.

Were they not dumping/cancelling projects/doing layoffs, I would just assume they'd take the loss on the game, write it off as franchise establishment, and start work on the sequel for next gen hoping for more profitability.

It's just that they actually seem concerned now, which makes me more concerned.
 

Famassu

Member
The fuck. This was pretty much the only interesting, at least somewhat original looking upcoming FPS. Oh well, seems like I still don't have to invest my time on shooters this year.
 

Angry Fork

Member
This game looked fucking awesome I was anticipating it.

What the hell man. Did they need the money to fund a shitty middle east FPS?
 

Enco

Member
Well that sucks.

Still quite a few games I want to pick up though:

Just Cause 3
AC 3
GTA V
Bioshock Infinite
Far Cry 3
Borderlands 2

It looked mighty impressive from the gameplay we got though. So much cool parkour.
 
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