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[TalonJH]

"Bad word of mouth" ... hah.

Destiny still has great word of mouth. Have you looked at your friend's list lately? On both Xbox One and Playstation 4 it's Destiny, Destiny, Destiny.

Agreed, I think It does really well with the mainstream. People like us sit on a forum and think that the trends here are how things are perceived by the masses but they aren't. Destiny isn't a bad game and I hear "normals" talk about how much they like "Bad Game A" and how amazing it is. I sometimes think games media and "gamers" like us have become a little too jaded in what is an enjoyable game.

 

[BWJinxing]

Haha, that's pretty good. What's the source?

The NASA Mars Rover landing when it touched down.

 

[jvm]

Can someone explain to me why Gfk counts bundles but NPD doesn't?

Well, they're quite different. GfK has the letters G, F, and K while NPD has the letters N, P, and D. Nothing in common, really.

 

[theprodigy]

Well, they're quite different. GfK has the letters G, F, and K while NPD has the letters N, P, and D. Nothing in common, really.

lol

at any rate it's the Japanese trackers+Chart-Track/Gfk that count bundles, and NPD+all other Gfk that don't

(why?)

 

[donny2112]

lol

at any rate it's the Japanese trackers+Chart-Track/Gfk that count bundles, and NPD+all other Gfk that don't

(why?)

NPD tracks bundles with the hardware sales. Subscribers with access to both hardware and software breakdowns can combine the two, if they want.

My first one since joining Gaf proper; wish me luck^^

[PS4] - 600K
[XB1] - 315k
[3DS] - 145k
[WIU] - 61k
[360] - 60k
[PS3] - 40k

Please refrain from using "-" in the predictions in the future, unless you meant to predict negative sales.

You should fix your formatting if you want your predictions counted for points

I've been going with "as long as there's a really good effort to match the formatting, I'll usually take it", but with all the "off" prediction formats lately, next year will probably be more strict about it. Don't want to shift in what I let slide mid-year, though. Thanks!

[XB1] 1530k

I converted this to 153K. If you really meant 1.5 million, please let me know, and I'll change it back.


NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Sep-2014

1. PS4 - 435K
2. XB1 - 271K
3. 3DS - 125K
4. WIU - 72K
5. 360 - 62K
6. PS3 - 39K

I just realized there's only 4 systems that people actually care about their numbers (PS4, XB1, 3DS, Wii U)

Been thinking about reducing it to these 4 for next year, by the way. Not sure if Wii U would move back into points or stay for units only, though.

 

[Bgamer90]

That NPD thread is a mess (lol). Keep checking to see if there's more sales stat info but it's nothing but people bickering.

Wonder why we have to wait a long time for XB1 numbers this time around -- as long as XB1 is over 200K then I wouldn't find the sales to be horrible.

XB1 couldn't possibly be under 200K could it? (Dun dun dun)

 

[SwiftDeath]

I've been going with "as long as there's a really good effort to match the formatting, I'll usually take it", but with all the "off" prediction formats lately, next year will probably be more strict about it. Don't want to shift in what I let slide mid-year, though. Thanks!

No worries. You do great work! Much appreciated

NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - Sep-2014

1. PS4 - 435K
2. XB1 - 271K
3. 3DS - 125K
4. WIU - 72K
5. 360 - 62K
6. PS3 - 39K

It's funny because gaf will probably be off quite a bit this month looking at that and PS4 numbers and yet Pachter is still going to place horribly because how god awful his prediction was

That NPD thread is a mess (lol). Keep checking to see if there's more sales stat info but it's nothing but people bickering.

Wonder why we have to wait a long time for XB1 numbers this time around -- as long as XB1 is over 200K then I wouldn't find the sales to be horrible.

XB1 couldn't possibly be under 200K could it? (Dun dun dun)

I highly doubt XB1 was under 200k

Weekly XB1 baseline is probably ~35k, so 175k in a 5 week month with no promotions or big games. With Destiny, Fifa, Forza and that promotion I can't see it being less than 200k

 

[Bgamer90]

I highly doubt XB1 was under 200k

Weekly XB1 baseline is probably ~35k, so 175k in a 5 week month with no promotions or big games. With Destiny, Fifa, Forza and that promotion I can't see it being less than 200k

I do too. I just find their basic PR statement strange though.

I mean, no word about the free game week sales? Just very strange. I would be surprised by less than 200K or higher than 300K. Anything in between 200-300K would pretty much be what I would expect.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I do too. I just find their basic PR statement strange though.

I mean, no word about the free game week sales? Just very strange. I would be surprised by less than 200K or higher than 300K. Anything in between 200-300K would pretty much be what I would expect.

The MS PR is....surprisingly light, I agree. I think it might be them not wanting to set a precedent for giving away any useful information if eventually the only useful information they can give still puts them in a bad light? I dunno I got nothing

I agree 200k - 300k sounds reasonable

 

[theprodigy]

preliminary predictions:

[PS4] 480k (-58k)
[XB1] 275k (-9k)
[3DS] 135k
[WIU] 77k (-10k?)
[360] 66k
[PS3] 40k

1st edit: XB1 250k->255k, PS3 35k->40k
2nd edit: PS4 444k->468k
3rd edit: PS4 468k->480k, XB1 255k->275k

units: 77k (PS4/XB1/WIU)
points: 46.51 (PS4/XB1)

will wait for more narrowing down on 3DS/Wii U and other numbers, let's just say my edits worked in my favor but not enough for PS4

 

[TheBanditKing]

http://venturebeat.com/2014/10/16/s...ne-despite-microsoft-giving-away-a-free-game/

Wow according to their list the X1 stand alone Destiny out sold PS4 stand alone, but add in those bundle numbers and its a whole different number.

 

[Graphics Horse]

Hmm I'm over 100k off with ps4 but I think a lot will be. I predicted 148k for 3ds so that should be in my favour.

 

[shinra-bansho]

So, on the plus side everyone did terribly with PS4 predictions.

 

[Duxxy3]

So, on the plus side everyone did terribly with PS4 predictions.

I didn't have a clue what to guess - I had a range from 250k-550k that I was trying to decide on. If Destiny buyers were already PS4 owners, it would be lower. If Destiny buyers were new owners... shit, the sky's the limit. Turns out there were a lot more new owners than I expected.

Looks like the other systems were relatively predictable.

 

[N.Domixis]

No decimal points for the predictions, please.

[PS4] 502.334k
[PS3] 37.001k
[3DS] 142.12k
[WIU] 65.34k
[360] 71.12678k
[XB1] 253.1223k

That thread was a rebuttal to another thread that was using extremely faulty logic to try to determine the PS3 total sales. At the time, I took it as an attempt to try to shout down the crowd in the first thread (since no one seemed to be paying attention to the explanations in the first thread) who were all following the same faulty logic to come to their conclusions.

Dam I should have kept these.

 

[Ty4on]

So, on the plus side everyone did terribly with PS4 predictions.

27k off is terrible?
/smugmode

There were many other good predictions made like 510k, 513k, 515k, 518k, 520k, 525k, 545k, 550k, 559k, 560k, 565k (mine, looks bad now ) and even a 535k was made unless it got changed after I sampled them. There may be better ones too, but I gathered these manually.

 

[SwiftDeath]

I did so bad

so bad

 

[donny2112]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2014

Units

1. ethomaz - 62,000
2. BumRush - 66,000
3. gtj1092 - 70,000
4. ascii42 - 79,000
5. occelinho - 87,000
6. 2thepoint - 88,000
7. theprodigy - 97,000
8. Skeff - 99,000
9. Canis lupus - 102,000
9. Ty4on - 102,000
11. archnemesis - 107,000
12. Darksol - 111,000
12. Welfare - 111,000
14. shwimpy - 112,000
15. strangedopamine - 116,500
16. Radec - 122,000
17. hagege_s - 123,000
18. HalfBaked - 127,000
19. elite09 - 129,000
20. spatenfloot - 134,000
21. Road - 135,000
21. madp0k - 135,000
21. pitseleh - 135,000
24. KillerMan91 - 137,000
25. TheCarrotKiller - 138,000
26. skedar897 - 139,000
27. DangerMouse - 140,000
28. Bruno MB - 142,000
29. Lexxus - 143,000
29. Trust me, I'm a PhD - 143,000
31. LordofPwn - 144,000
32. doicare - 148,000
33. JaguarCROW - 149,000
34. KenPokesBarbie - 150,000
35. GifGafIsTheBestGaf - 151,000
35. John Bender - 151,000
37. shinra-bansho - 153,000
37. twisted h3art - 153,000
39. Relativ9 - 155,000
40. Final Verdict - 156,000
41. Yoda - 158,000
42. Loris146 - 160,000
43. Pennywise - 162,000
44. GAF_Agg - 164,400
45. Prototype Viktor - 170,000
45. zulux21 - 170,000
47. Kayant - 171,000
48. allan-bh - 173,000
49. SwiftDeath - 174,000
50. Coulomb_Barrier - 177,000
50. Gbpackers31 - 177,000
50. Maxxan - 177,000
53. Jimmyfenix - 178,000
53. mejin - 178,000
55. Graphics Horse - 179,000
56. plainr_ - 180,000
57. andy_lhc - 181,000
58. RexNovis - 183,000
59. Orthogonal - 185,000
59. vinnygambini - 185,000
61. Aquamarine - 188,000
62. vicissitudes - 190,000
63. Tubie - 192,000
64. CorporateClown - 194,000
64. Elios83 - 194,000
66. Megadragon15 - 195,000
66. bakman21 - 195,000
68. RamzaIsCool - 198,000
69. Xando - 200,000
70. metalslimer - 201,000
71. Dynopia - 202,000
71. jayu26 - 202,000
71. ocean - 202,000
74. DrWong - 203,000
75. GnawtyDog - 205,000
76. Kysen - 206,000
77. Jamix012 - 207,000
78. donny2112 - 208,000
79. chithanh - 209,000
80. AngryMoth - 210,000
80. prag16 - 210,000
80. unknownstranger - 210,000
83. dolemite - 212,000
83. noobie - 212,000
85. GrayDock - 213,000
85. freefornow - 213,000
87. ERMint13 - 214,000
88. BlackBuzzard - 215,000
89. Hammer24 - 216,000
89. RyanPierre - 216,000
91. Goldmund - 219,000
92. Griml┐ck - 220,000
93. Banamy - 222,000
93. Rymuth - 222,000
95. Conduit - 225,000
96. Spazgadget - 226,000
97. Bgamer90 - 229,000
98. michaelius - 230,000
99. bud23 - 232,000
100. Stilton Disco - 233,000
101. Makareu - 240,000
102. Beysus - 242,000
103. Chobel - 244,000
103. Hindle - 244,000
105. Asd202 - 245,000
105. MasterSheen - 245,000
107. travisbickle - 254,000
108. BlackJace - 259,000
108. Mr.Sumal - 259,000
108. astrogamer - 259,000
111. Paskil - 260,000
111. confuziz - 260,000
113. Cess007 - 262,000
113. LKSmash - 262,000
115. Dragonborn - 264,000
116. harrisk954 - 267,000
117. 1st Course - 268,000
118. DarthWalden - 269,000
119. Duxxy3 - 270,000
120. FZZpure - 275,000
120. joecanada - 275,000
122. Dodecagon - 281,000
123. pager99 - 286,000
124. RealityPales - 288,000
125. ferrasvansen - 289,000
126. MilesTeg - 293,000
127. Leekors - 298,000
128. BuzzJive - 305,000
129. RE_Player - 317,000
130. FullMetaltech - 318,000
131. FliXFantatier - 322,000
132. Zero-Crescent - 324,000
133. sacrificengineer - 325,000
134. Opt1kon_ - 326,000
135. Randolph Freelander - 333,999
136. driver116 - 336,000
137. SteveMcqwark - 337,000
137. giadartis - 337,000
139. GamerJM - 338,000
140. IAmRandom31 - 349,000
141. Jallopy - 361,000
142. SolidJum5 - 362,000
143. robo - 367,000
144. CrazedProfessional - 371,000
145. Pachter - 371,500
146. TrebuchetGames - 378,000
146. jvm - 378,000
148. Akai__ - 388,000
149. shandy706 - 398,000
150. BoxManLocke - 400,000
151. Godzilla's Left Toe - 415,000
152. Wurdfurd - 461,000
153. ChaosXVI - 476,000
154. pip77 - 498,000
155. N.Domixis - 504,000
156. Krakn3Dfx - 520,000


Points

     September 2014                  Overall 2014 Top (7/9)
01.  ethomaz                120.21   allan-bh               701.45
02.  gtj1092                115.06   shinra-bansho          672.54
03.  ascii42                113.62   Road                   669.62
04.  BumRush                113.47   vinnygambini           666.25
05.  occelinho              107.93   doicare                666.03
06.  theprodigy             106.75   theprodigy             665.59
07.  2thepoint              103.60   Graphics Horse         661.60
08.  strangedopamine        103.48   jayu26                 658.35
09.  Ty4on                  102.04   Gbpackers31            655.82  * Aquamarine             657.23
10.  Skeff                  101.93   prag16                 654.79
11.  Road                   101.78   archnemesis            654.45
12.  shinra-bansho          101.69   Canis lupus            651.47
13.  Canis lupus            101.68   ascii42                650.64
14.  allan-bh               100.83   Maxxan                 650.14
15.  spatenfloot            100.38   donny2112              650.06
16.  Welfare                100.37   Elios83                649.32
17.  KillerMan91             99.95   jvm                    648.48
18.  Bruno MB                99.76   Loris146               647.90
19.  Lexxus                  99.32   Chobel                 645.94
20.  plainr_                 99.26   SwiftDeath             645.72
21.  Final Verdict           99.21   BlackBuzzard           645.69
22.  Loris146                99.10   Bruno MB               641.72
23.  Trust me, I'm a PhD     98.95   BuzzJive               641.17
24.  KenPokesBarbie          98.91   Randolph Freelander    640.45
25.  Yoda                    98.70   confuziz               639.48
26.  JaguarCROW              98.55   Zero-Crescent          636.49
27.  SwiftDeath              98.39   andy_lhc               634.35
28.  Kayant                  98.32   Lexxus                 631.77
29.  skedar897               98.20   1st Course             631.69
30.  doicare                 98.17   Bgamer90               631.41
31.  archnemesis             98.05   Hammer24               630.76
32.  HalfBaked               97.84   michaelius             630.47
33.  Jimmyfenix              96.98   bakman21               630.40
34.  Gbpackers31             96.81   RamzaIsCool            628.37
35.  Graphics Horse          96.76   Aquamarine             627.24
36.  vinnygambini            96.66   MasterSheen            624.63
37.  RyanPierre              96.60   skedar897              622.20
38.  Aquamarine              96.59   pitseleh               619.83
39.  vicissitudes            96.49   noobie                 619.47
40.  John Bender             96.46   CorporateClown         616.55
41.  Relativ9                96.38   Goldmund               615.91
42.  Orthogonal              96.32   astrogamer             613.71
43.  hagege_s                96.31   travisbickle           608.59
44.  Jamix012                95.80   DrWong                 606.69
45.  madp0k                  95.67   sacrificengineer       600.40
46.  Elios83                 95.64   Asd202                 598.11
47.  DangerMouse             95.61   gtj1092                598.06
48.  DrWong                  95.49   Jamix012               590.21
49.  elite09                 95.36   Duxxy3                 587.37
50.  bud23                   95.30   Welfare                583.72

Congratulations, ethomaz!

 

[SwiftDeath]

Congrats ethomaz. Thanks as always for your hard work, Donny

NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2014

Units

49. SwiftDeath - 174,000

I was 27 in points! Yeah for general mediocrity boosting my placement!

NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2014

Units

145. Pachter - 371,500

lol Pachter

 

[N.Domixis]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2014



Congratulations, ethomaz!

Yes! if you reveres the ordering I am second!

 

[Aquamarine]

I was 27 in points! Yeah for general mediocrity boosting my placement!

I know, right?

Thank to mediocrity, I'm now 9th in overall sales rankings!

 

[Radec]

16. Radec - 122,000

I did not bad!

considering..

[PS4] 500K
[XB1] 300K
[3DS] 100K
[WIU] 70K
[360] 70K
[PS3] 40K

 

[SwiftDeath]

I know, right?

Thank to mediocrity, I'm now 9th in overall sales rankings!

9th*

Spoiler

 

[Jimmyfenix]

At least I beat pachter.

 

[theprodigy]

I know, right?

Thank to mediocrity, I'm now 9th* in overall sales rankings!

wow 7th in units and 6th in points to jump to 6th for the year, hell yeah!

 

[Welfare]

Just edged into the Top 50 overall points

 

[shinra-bansho]

Lol, 153K units off and still 12th in points.

Three cheers for mediocrity.

Congrats ethomaz.

 

[vinnygambini]

36. vinnygambini 96.66

I can't ;.;

Thanks Donny again

 

[Jac_Solar]

What's with the all caps in some sections in the OP? Isn't the general consensus that it's significantly easier to read lower case?

 

[Aquamarine]

What's with the all caps in some sections in the OP? Isn't the general consensus that it's significantly easier to read lower case?

Because when I created the list for the OP, I didn't want to worry about what parts of each title had to be capitalised or hyphenated or any of that nonsense.


And NPD is known for all-caps when reporting numbers in their monthly sales reports, so I thought I'd be a bit authentic.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Unlucky jvm , shandy & krakn. Pach beat you here.

 

[BlackBuzzard]

NeoGAF Prediction Results - September 2014

Units

88. BlackBuzzard - 215,000

Not bad enough to commit sudoku.

 

[Duxxy3]

Amazes me how good the aggregate is overall. Never gets it perfect, but most of the time it's in the ballpark.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Chartz numbers:
PS4: 405,818 [-132,000]
XB1: 247,239 [-37,000]
3DS: 127,953 [-12,000]
WIU: 82,522 [-4,500]
360: 74,957 [+1,000]
PS3: 45,343 [-1,000]

Units:

60. Chartz - 187,500 units off

Chartz wasn't that bad this month with their prediction....

 

[theprodigy]

Units:

60. Chartz - 187,500 units off

Chartz wasn't that bad this month with their prediction....

chartz>Aquamarine?

Aquamarine pls

 

[Ty4on]

Congrats to ethomaz! First place predictions are scary close as always.

I really need to work on my WiiU predictions and I was so off on last gen it made a big difference in units despite the tiny numbers
Top ten is nice though.

 

[Hammer24]

Congrats to ethomaz!

I´m having my worst year ever :-(

 

[SwiftDeath]

chartz>Aquamarine?

Aquamarine pls

I uh noticed that initially but felt I should lay off so as not to suffer the Aqua's rage....

 

[Prototype Viktor]

wish i didn't edit my PS4 numbers down at the last minute would have been like 30k closer

 

[Zero-Crescent]

Ugh, did not do well this time. I thought that Smash would really push 3DS units, but perhaps the new3DS announcement had a major counter-effect. And Wii U did better than I thought, looks like Hyrule Warriors and/or the new bundles had a fairly positive effect (Wii U was a bit tough to predict using historical data, since September 2013 was the price drop). And of course, I underestimated/overestimated the PS4/XB1 numbers.

 

[strangedopamine]

15. strangedopamine - 116,500

15th in units and 8th points is a fine comeback to this prediction game.

Got my 3DS prediction almost spot on!

 

[anonymous_abc]

Unlucky jvm , shandy & krakn. Pach beat you here.

Just what I was thinking. xD

 

[ascii42]

My best month yet!

 

[Aquamarine]

Hey Sales-Age. I just wanted to say something quick about a new system.

First, some background:



There is a massive amount of people who just lurk GAF, look for leaks, and then leave.

They don't contribute to the community, they spread the leaks all around the Internet and raise GAF's notoriety, and they raise the chances of us getting into trouble with NPD.

With the email tag system, leak origins + leak reposts will be obfuscated for that massive portion of people, making it safer to leak stuff because leaks will be limited to GAF members only.

NPD has done some pretty nasty, brutal crackdowns in the past 5 years (RIP GameCrate.com)...we don't want to incur their wrath.



Making GAF leaks a members-only affair through email tags would really cut down on the amount of sharing around the Internet.

You'd still have people sharing it...but it'd become very niche very quickly.


(PLEASE QUOTE THIS POST)













The PS4 sucks and the Xbox One is obviously going to win the USA.







XBOX ONE RULES, SONY SUCKS. WHO'S WITH ME.







Now I'm part of a healthy, rigorous discussion on the merits of the Wii U console. In October 2014, the Wii U only sold (QUOTE ME FOR NUMBERS) so it can be assumed that the Wii U is not going to recover because XYZ reasons reasons

 

[FullMetaltech]

Man i did some awefull numbers this month. Congrats to ethomaz.

Edit: Aqua, your new system seems like the best way to avoid problems in the future. Thanks for that.

 

[Chobel]

103. Chobel - 244,000

Damn it! I fucked up big time this month, Even chartzzz did better than me.

Anyway Congratulations ethomaz, and thanks as always for this Donny!

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Hey Sales-Age. I just wanted to say something quick about a new system.

First, some background:



There is a massive portion of people who just lurk GAF, look for leaks, and then leave.

They don't contribute to the community, they spread the leaks all around the Internet and raise GAF's notoriety, and they raise the chances of us getting into trouble with NPD.

With the email tag system, leak origins + leak reposts will be obfuscated for that massive portion of people, making it safer to leak stuff.



(PLEASE QUOTE THIS POST)













The PS4 sucks and the Xbox One is obviously going to win the USA.







XBOX ONE RULES, SONY SUCKS. WHO'S WITH ME.







Now I'm part of a healthy, rigorous discussion on the merits of the Wii U console. In October 2014, the Wii U only sold (QUOTE ME FOR NUMBERS) so it can be assumed that the Wii U is not going to recover because XYZ reasons reasons

This seems like a good idea.

 

[Graphics Horse]

I know, right?

Thank to mediocrity, I'm now 9th in overall sales rankings!

Why do you get a special entry with an asterisk?

 

[prag16]

Man, so many middle-of-thr-pack months in a row for me. No idea how I'm still clinging to top 10 overall (barely)... (11th* considering aquamarine).

Why do you get a special entry with an asterisk?

She missed the deadline one month, so donny kept track of her position including that month as a courtesy.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

135. Randolph Freelander - 333,999

Just a notch above dead last. Good job, self.