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[btkadams]

I think you will begin to see Sony gravitate their next generation toward the use of Move and away from dual analog.

i don't think we can be friends.

 

[cpp_is_king]

I agree. If his information is true, then it tells a lot about how the PS4 is going to look like.

Take everything with a grain of salt, Sony still has the final say on everything, but obviously the developers using their hardware have a non-zero influence on decisions.

 

[theBishop]

Unless Microsoft and Sony go straight-up AMD64 with their CPUs, I don't see where they can go other than some riff on the Cell approach. There hasn't been much movement on the Gigahertz side in a while. Massively concurrent CPUs are the future.

 

[mentalfloss]

i don't think we can be friends.

Sorry, but it makes a lot of business sense for them.

Microsoft is already beginning the same process with Kinect.

They're both trying to emulate the peak of Nintendo's Wii success, because they already have a stable hardcore fanbase that they believe they won't lose to Wii's successor.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

It is well know that fair amount of devs don't like cell while others do .
Still i can see sony going half way , getting something that devs like more than cell while still allowing you to use some of your old code.

Side note if i remember right devs did not like PS2 hardware also .
Still Sony should try and make another PS2 and not Wii.

 

[Proelite]

Sorry, but it makes a lot of business sense for them.

Microsoft is already beginning the same process with Kinect.

They're both trying to emulate the peak of Nintendo's Wii success.

HD consoles have combined to outsell the wii by 20% and is gaining traction while the Wii is fading. HD games have made MUCH more revenue than Wii games. MS and Sony sees opportunity for some extra revenue in the casual market, but they will do nothing to risk the overwhelming larger source of revenue in the hardcore market. MS and Sony will absolutely see to that the hardcore is served first for their next generation consoles.

 

[rvy]

"Of course, we wanted to offer better visuals. That's the 'gene' of PlayStation.

What? Circe '96 maybe.

 

[mentalfloss]

HD consoles have combined to outsell the wii by 20% and is gaining traction while the Wii is fading. HD games have made MUCH more revenue than Wii games. MS and Sony sees opportunity for some extra revenue in the casual market, but they will do nothing to risk the overwhelming larger source of revenue in the hardcore market.

Revenue is not profit.

I applaud Sony and Microsoft though from a business standpoint for deciding to shift the market. It doesn't fiscally make sense for them to advance their new tech that far. It's been obvious for a while now, that they are trying to emulate Nintendo's success.

Sony wants to be Nintendo

 

[StevieP]

HD consoles have combined to outsell the wii by 20% and is gaining traction while the Wii is fading. HD games have made MUCH more revenue than Wii games. MS and Sony sees opportunity for some extra revenue in the casual market, but they will do nothing to risk the overwhelming larger source of revenue in the hardcore market. MS and Sony will absolutely see to that the hardcore is served first for their next generation consoles.

Source, please.

 

[Massa]

Sorry, but it makes a lot of business sense for them.

Microsoft is already beginning the same process with Kinect.

They're both trying to emulate the peak of Nintendo's Wii success, because they already have a stable hardcore fanbase that they believe they won't lose to Wii's successor.

That just tells me you're not paying attention to how Sony works with its first party studios and Move. Their biggest release for 2011 has no Move support at all.

 

[btkadams]

wouldn't using an evolved cell processor make it easier to emulate ps3 games on the ps4? and it wouldn't have the hard battle ps3 development first had because developers already know how to develop with that architecture, right?

 

[mentalfloss]

That just tells me you're not paying attention to how Sony works with its first party studios and Move. Their biggest release for 2011 has no Move support at all.

Of course not. The PS3 is not the PS4.

Microsoft is trying to ease into that transition now with Kinect. Sony will begin that transition in the next couple of years to coincide with their next platform release and the new market they're trying to capture.

It makes sense.

Both hardware manufacturers just want to be as profitable as Nintendo was in 2008.

 

[AiTM]

The target will be to expand the gaming population and to try to design games for women.

"Gaming is no longer for Gamers."

-AiTM, June 22nd, 2011

 

[sp3000]

design games for women.

No.

 

[Proelite]

Source, please.

This was back in 2009 were Wii was still going strong. The gap is most definitely wider now.

 

[DaSorcerer7]

Well at least we know it won't be $599.99, that's something right?

 

[mrklaw]

Unless Microsoft and Sony go straight-up AMD64 with their CPUs, I don't see where they can go other than some riff on the Cell approach. There hasn't been much movement on the Gigahertz side in a while. Massively concurrent CPUs are the future.

Thus goes round and round but at the moment I agree. Devs seem to be getting up to speed with CELL and being able to carry tools and processes across to PS4 would be attractive to them.

Wonder how many SPUs they could get on a modern die - 32?

 

[mentalfloss]

Yep.

Until MS and Sony branch out, they will both continue to eat at up the same revenue stream while Nintendo runs away with their money when Wii U comes out. At this point they are essentially cancelling each other out.

MS is beginning the transition this year because they recognize that they cannot remain stagnatn. Sony has about another 1 - 2 years to continue with the same market before they shift gears with PS4.

Good for them and good for the industry.

 

[Proelite]

Yep. Until MS and Sony branch out, they will both continue to eat at each other's profit margin while Nintendo runs away with their money when Wii U comes out. Otherwise, they will essentially be cancelling each other out while Wii U's profits balloon past them like this gen.

MS is beginning the transition this year because they recognize that they cannot remain stagnatn. Sony has about another 1 - 2 years to continue with the same market before they shift gears with PS4.

Good for them and good for the industry.

Shift gears, not shift market. I don't think Sony or MS would prioritize casuals over the hardcore gamer. That seems so risky, as for a lot of casuals, gaming itself is a big fad.
They'll tread on hard ground first with NextBox and PS4, especially MS as they have a following of some 10-20 million Gold Members that they need to convince to upgrade.

 

[TheListener]

It's practically impossible to quantify how many "gaming PCs" are out there.

Which generated more revenue, Crysis 2 or Farmville?

 

[okenny]

My PC is like 50x more powerful than both consoles. The games I play on it, maxed out at 1080p, do not look 50x better. What's your point?

You have to be clear at what you measure when you say "X times better". Here's a little experiment:

Let's use the template: "- FEATURE: Current Gen (Next Gen) [quantified increase]

Xbox 360 => Xbox 720
- CPU Clock: 3.2 GHz (5 GHz) [156%]
- CPU Cores/Threads: 3/6 (6/24) [400%]
- Memory Bandwidth: 22 GB/s (200 GB/s) [909%]
- Memory Size: 512 MB (8192 MB) [1600%]
- GPU Clock: 500 MHz (2000 MHz) [400%]
- GPU Cores: 48 (1024) [2133%]


Needless to say, there would be few things that would have problems running at 1080p at 60 fps with next gen specs like above but nowhere do you see anything 5000% (50x) better. The reason is because people tend to talk about the cumulative increase rather than the improvements made on a feature by feature level.

 

[RyL]

As far as I know, SCEE folks usually don't know a thing about anything that SCEJ or SCEA does. Seeing as the console is developed usually by SCEJ, we shouldn't worry about what some random SCEE guy says.

They know nothing in Europe.

I seriously doubt anyone outside of SCEJ, and maybe a select few in SCEA, knows anything about the PS4.

yes, because america numba 1 phaggots, lol at european subhumans, they aren't the center of the universe, even though all playstation consoles sold better there ...

Spoiler

...

 

[theBishop]

Thus goes round and round but at the moment I agree. Devs seem to be getting up to speed with CELL and being able to carry tools and processes across to PS4 would be attractive to them.

Wonder how many SPUs they could get on a modern die - 32?

Yeah, who knows. I'm not even saying they will make a new Cell necessarily. Maybe PS4 ditches powerPC in favor of ARM instructions. But the overall design approach seems to be the only way forward. A fully programmable chip with vector processing of a GPU. Intel's Larrabee project is a more recent example.

 

[StevieP]

You have to be clear at what you measure when you say "X times better". Here's a little experiment:

Let's use the template: "- FEATURE: Current Gen (Next Gen) [quantified increase]

Xbox 360 => Xbox 720
- CPU Clock: 3.2 GHz (5 GHz) [156%]
- CPU Cores/Threads: 3/6 (6/24) [400%]
- Memory Bandwidth: 22 GB/s (200 GB/s) [909%]
- Memory Size: 512 MB (8192 MB) [1600%]
- GPU Clock: 500 MHz (2000 MHz) [400%]
- GPU Cores: 48 (1024) [2133%]


Needless to say, there would be few things that would have problems running at 1080p at 60 fps with next gen specs like above but nowhere do you see anything 5000% (50x) better. The reason is because people tend to talk about the cumulative increase rather than the improvements made on a feature by feature level.

 

[mentalfloss]

Shift gears, not shift market. I don't think Sony or MS would prioritize casuals over the hardcore gamer. That seems so risky, as for a lot of casuals, gaming itself is a big fad.

No, not at all. At this point the greater risk as always been to sell at a loss and hope for revenue down the road to translate into profits.

That hasn't really happened for Sony or Microsoft. They need to change to emulate Nintendo's success.

 

[Proelite]

No, not at all. At this point the greater risk as always been to sell at a loss and hope for revenue down the road to translate into profits.
That hasn't really happened for Sony or Microsoft.

That's a horrible graph to use in more ways than one.

 

[mentalfloss]

That's a horrible graph to use in more ways than one.

Why?

 

[Proelite]

Why?

Because more than half of Nintendo's income is pre-wii, and you really can't tell by the chart how much of the income come from games sold to casuals. I don't see any thing from the chart that tells me the casual market is where companies should focus their efforts on.

I don't think income made in a certain market is a good measurement of of healthy a market is. MS and Sony needs to take advantage of a hardcore market without doing stupid shit that make them lose money, i.e. PS3 and RROD.

 

[mentalfloss]

Because more than half of Nintendo's income is pre-wii, and you really can't tell by the chart how much of the income come from games sold to casuals. I don't see any thing from the chart that tells me the casual market is where companies should focus their efforts on.

I don't think income made in a certain market is a good measurement of of healthy a market is. MS and Sony needs to take advantage of a hardcore market without doing stupid shit that make them lose money, i.e. PS3 and RROD.

Like I said, this isn't necessarily about casual versus hardcore. It's mostly about making a highly-spec'd out machine that doesn't make a profit until 3 years in the console cycle. That's mistake #1, and that's what this thread is about.

The Move and Kinect, must also come down in price in order to have the same explosive profit that Nintendo had with Wii. But it's clear that MS and Sony will continue to branch out with their next consoles to get a piece of that market.

Again:

1.) It won't be an exuberantly spec'd, high cost machine
2.) They will need casuals in addition to the hardcore


That's the formula to a sustainable profit.

 

[Proelite]

Like I said, this isn't necessarily about casual versus hardcore. It's mostly about making a highly-spec'd out machine that doesn't make a profit until 3 years in the console cycle. That's mistake #1, and that's what this thread is about.

The Move and Kinect, must also come down in price in order to have the same explosive profit that Nintendo had with Wii. But it's clear that MS and Sony will continue to branch out with their next consoles to get a piece of that market.

Again:

1.) It won't be an exuberantly spec'd, high cost machine
2.) They will need casuals in addition to the hardcore


That's the formula to a sustainable profit.

They definitely can make a really powerful machine that offers a giant jump in power from the PS3 / 360, larger than the previous jump in raw power, at $399 and still have room left to make $25-$50. I predict than a $200-$300 Fusion Mark 2 chip is going to be a beast compared to the mid-tier stuff currently available for the PC, which are themselves a HUGE jump for 360 / PS3.
$100 Cell 2.0 + $150 Customized Nvidia GPU would be quite powerful in 2014/2015.

 

[StevieP]

They definitely can make a really powerful machine that offers a giant jump in power from the PS3 / 360, larger than the previous jump in raw power, at $399 and still have room left to make $25-$50. I predict than a $200-$300 Fusion Mark 2 chip is going to be a beast compared to the mid-tier stuff currently available for the PC, which are themselves a HUGE jump for 360 / PS3.

What??

AMD's Trinity chip (which would be what you call Fusion MK2) is using midrange Evergreen GPUs as their foundation (aka 400ishSPU parts of today, such as the AMD 6570). And those are releasing in the second half of 2012. If the console manufacturers are looking to release late 2013, this is a best case scenario for them, and that's if GF/TSMC can do it on time. That's not to say that a 6570 wouldn't obliterate RSX, for example, but these are not the Jedi's you and most others are looking for.

 

[Tarin02543]

I really want a mean and lean machine, just like the psone.

299 €

 

[mentalfloss]

I predict than a $200-$300 Fusion Mark 2 chip is going to be a beast compared to the mid-tier stuff currently available for the PC, which are themselves a HUGE jump for 360 / PS3.

One can definitely hope, lol

Keep in mind they won't be releasing that machine until 2014 which is about 2 years after Wii U launches. By then, MS and Sony will have already given Nintendo a very comfy head start.

Sony need to ensure they have a profitable console no later than 1 year after its release.

 

[Proelite]

What??

AMD's Trinity chip (which would be what you call Fusion MK2) is using midrange Evergreen GPUs as their foundation (aka 400ishSPU parts of today, such as the AMD 6570). And those are releasing in the second half of 2012. If the console manufacturers are looking to release late 2013, this is a best case scenario for them, and that's if GF/TSMC can do it on time. That's not to say that a 6570 wouldn't obliterate RSX, for example, but these are not the Jedi's you and most others are looking for.

Hmm, I mispoke. I meant whatever $200-$300 can get from you from AMD that can fit in a console. Won't Trinity cost like $50-$100 only, seeing ILano's are currently $70ish. Knowning MS, they'll want a APU customized for their newest set of graphical APIs, so I doubt there is anything like it currently on AMD's roadmap.

 

[theBishop]

If anyone is interested in where things are headed:

Intel's Larrabee GPU will finally go into commercial production next year, but not as a graphics processor. Instead, the part will make its debut in a 50-core incarnation fabbed on Intel's 22nm

http://arstechnica.com/business/new...-50-core-supercomputing-coprocessor-plans.ars

 

[StevieP]

Won't Trinity cost like $50-$100 only, seeing ILano's are currently $70ish.

Now you're getting it. An SOI from AMD that is customized and costs about $100 is all but confirmed to be what MS will be using in the next Xbox. Who knows what Sony will do - though many of their statements indicate similar. It will be a jump, but not a massive one, to the next gen machines. An AMD 6570 equivalent would be much better than Xenos, for example... but not your standard generational leap to say the least.

 

[Proelite]

Now you're getting it. An SOI from AMD that is customized and costs about $100 is all but confirmed to be what MS will be using in the next Xbox.

The only thing that I would put my money on is a chip that can do DX12. It can cost anything. Although $100 CPU+GPU is not really build for a 10 year life cycle, but rather paving the way for incremental yearly revisions like Apple. Which I would be fine with to be honest.

 

[mckmas8808]

Of course not. The PS3 is not the PS4.

Microsoft is trying to ease into that transition now with Kinect. Sony will begin that transition in the next couple of years to coincide with their next platform release and the new market they're trying to capture.

It makes sense.

Both hardware manufacturers just want to be as profitable as Nintendo was in 2008.

You can do that without going full casual.

 

[StevieP]

You can do that without going full casual.

Correct. Like the DS and the Wii were not full casual. Move is not full casual. Only Kinect can be even enlightened in that argument. However, E3 showed a few "near-hardcore" titles (god I hate that term) but the ecosystem is still not as diverse as the Wii and DS before it. The Wii was underpowered, granted - had it not been it probably would've received the same ports of the GTA4s/Bayonettas/etc. But hindsight is 20/20. Changing things is never guaranteed to bring the same level of success. It is because it was.

Although $100 CPU+GPU is not really build for a 10 year life cycle

It's built for a 5-6 year lifecycle. Like all consoles were and are.

 

[mentalfloss]

Now you're getting it. An SOI from AMD that is customized and costs about $100 is all but confirmed to be what MS will be using in the next Xbox. Who knows what Sony will do - though many of their statements indicate similar. It will be a jump, but not a massive one, to the next gen machines.

And this is a perfectly sensible strategy that will allow for a nice blend of casual and hardcore games. Unless you're a tech-geek, this is great news for gamers.

 

[mckmas8808]

What??

AMD's Trinity chip (which would be what you call Fusion MK2) is using midrange Evergreen GPUs as their foundation (aka 400ishSPU parts of today, such as the AMD 6570). And those are releasing in the second half of 2012. If the console manufacturers are looking to release late 2013, this is a best case scenario for them, and that's if GF/TSMC can do it on time. That's not to say that a 6570 wouldn't obliterate RSX, for example, but these are not the Jedi's you and most others are looking for.

So explain how 3 or 4 GBs of RAM in the PS4 alone would not destroy anything that's made on the PS3.

 

[Metalmurphy]

ok, i'm a developer.

What do you do?

 

[StevieP]

And this is a perfectly sensible strategy that will allow for a nice blend of casual and hardcore games. Unless you're a tech-geek, this is great news for gamers.

If you're a tech geek you already have a gaming PC.

So explain how 3 or 4 GBs of RAM in the PS4 alone would not destroy anything that's made on the PS3.

You do not need 4GB of ram in a closed environment like a console. This isn't desktop DDR3 we're talking about here, console manufacturers like to use the faster stuff like XDR and DDR5 - far more expensive, but higher in bandwidth. If you put 4GB of unified DDR3 (which is acceptable from a costing perspective) you'll be gimping the GPU. CGI demo renders aside, you're not going to get anything in tomorrow's consoles that you're not already seeing on today's PCs. Visually at least. Where the consoles excel is finding unique games that are often not found on PC.

So you think 4 GBs in the PS4 that could do DX 11 or 12 (like) graphics effects would amount to diminishing returns? Really?

Yes. The evidence of that is already out there.

 

[mentalfloss]

So explain how 3 or 4 GBs of RAM in the PS4 alone would not destroy anything that's made on the PS3.

Diminishing returns.

 

[mckmas8808]

Diminishing returns.

So you think 4 GBs in the PS4 that could do DX 11 or 12 (like) graphics effects would amount to diminishing returns? Really?

 

[mentalfloss]

So you think 4 GBs in the PS4 that could do DX 11 or 12 (like) graphics effects would amount to diminishing returns? Really?

Yes.

The average consumer will look at the graphics - which will be something akin to that Unreal 3 demo - and they will not interpret that as a huge leap.

 

[Proelite]

Okay, did some research on AMD's road map. I do not think they will use the stock Trinity, as the card on their is DX11 compliant and it will be 32 nm only. I am think a 28 nm custom chip using 4 enhanced bulldozers + DX12 chip is something that MS would be willing to spend money on. i.e ~$200 in order to get that DX12/latest graphical technology bullet point in. They'll still be making a killing off each console sold at $400.

 

[mentalfloss]

Okay, did some research on AMD's road map. I do not think they will use the stock Trinity, as the card on their is DX11 compliant and it will be 32 nm only. I am think a 28 nm custom chip using 4 enhanced bulldozers + DX12 chip is something that MS would be willing to spend money on. i.e ~$200 in order to get that DX12/latest graphical technology bullet point in. They'll still be making a killing off each console sold at $400.

Don't forget to add in the cost of at least one Move remote and nunchuk.

Also, $400 is way too high if they want to be competitive with Wii U which will have been out for 1.5 years. The adoption rate will be as slow as the PS3's was.

 

[Proelite]

Don't forget to add in the cost of Move remotes.

WUT.

 

[StevieP]

Okay, did some research on AMD's road map. I do not think they will use the stock Trinity, as the card on their is DX11 compliant and it will be 32 nm only. I am think a 28 nm custom chip using 4 enhanced bulldozers + DX12 chip is something that MS would be willing to spend money on. i.e ~$200. They'll still be making a killing off each console sold at $400.

Of course they'll use a customized part. They may even add some of the DX12 features as they did with some select DX10 features on Xenos. However, keep in mind that whatever you think they may do in your research it has to be "taped out" about a year in advance of the launch. Especially if you want to avoid stuff like Cell's extremely poor wafer production and RRODs. Heat and wattage are also a concern, which is why AMD's fusion parts have mid-range GPUs as their top-end parts. 400-ish SPUs is what AMD targetsin those higher end Fusions.

And while you're there, TSMC has a very poor record in delivering die shrinks on time as of late. But, as discussed with the 3DS teardown awhile back on GAF - don't assume that a $200 build cost for some of the hardware means that it's a $200 profit for a console sold at $400. There is a LOT more in the cardboard box, both inside the console and out.