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[EmiPrime]

UK backing away from threat to leave with no deal, say EU diplomats
UK officials recognise that failure to agree post-Brexit trade deal with EU27 would cause havoc, according to EU sources

That feeling when your bluff gets called.

 

[Biggzy]

UK backing away from threat to leave with no deal, say EU diplomats
UK officials recognise that failure to agree post-Brexit trade deal with EU27 would cause havoc, according to EU sources

That feeling when your bluff gets called.

The UK would be terrible in a poker game.

In all seriousness though, at least some sense of rationality seems to be setting in according to this article.

 

[Xando]

snip

snip

snip

Thanks. Very interesting topic.

UK backing away from threat to leave with no deal, say EU diplomats
UK officials recognise that failure to agree post-Brexit trade deal with EU27 would cause havoc, according to EU sources

That feeling when your bluff gets called.

It was a bad bluff from the start and you could see it getting called from miles away

 

[jelly]

It's not surprising and bloody obvious from the start. People are noticing prices going up, probably thinking about holiday money and seeing how much less it gets you now, job prospects in companies are starting to turn. There is real sense of shit piling up and catapulted into the fan.

A shame it's all too late and May is in full on get on with it mode. At best we end up in the single market with a worse deal and wasted 3 years. What a joke and pointless endeavour. I would have great respect for Government if they just called off this nonsense and got stuck in with reforming the EU which it does need.

 

[jelly]

From that link.

"It is not possible to overestimate the threat the UK press poses to reaching a deal. We have to counteract that by being open,” said one diplomat

Yeah and May is right up their arses unfortunately. She only cares about retaining power at any cost and they control the wind.

 

[mclem]

Oh wow. Aside from the East Midlands, there's a drop in expectations across the board. More and more people expects things to go south judging from this. This is serious.

Curious why, there; the East Midlands was about as negative as London, but they're the only region to get more positive (albeit not much!)

 

[Xando]

From that link.

"It is not possible to overestimate the threat the UK press poses to reaching a deal. We have to counteract that by being open," said one diplomat

Yeah and May is right up their arses unfortunately. She only cares about retaining power at any cost and they control the wind.

I said this before.
I think the only way the UK leaves with no deal is if the tabloids turn on May and she's forced by the tories to keep the press happy.


Edit:


Nigel Farage says he will emigrate if Brexit goes badly

 

[BigAl1992]

Edit:


Nigel Farage says he will emigrate if Brexit goes badly

I don't have much love for politicians, but at least I can respect their points of view if they're willing to roll with the punches and accept responsibility for major actions. Farage here just sounds like a snake; argues a major point that has ramifications for everyone in the UK, and then says if it goes wrong, he'll pack up and leave. Spineless. At least I can respect the Tories for sticking to their guns through thick and thin, even if it comes across as bond villian-esque.

 

[jelly]

Agree about Farage but Tories, any politicians, not at all. They have absolutely nothing to fear. Great pension, job security private or otherwise, perks. Shit hitting the fan does nothing to them.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

I said this before.
I think the only way the UK leaves with no deal is if the tabloids turn on May and she's forced by the tories to keep the press happy.


Edit:


Nigel Farage says he will emigrate if Brexit goes badly

I don't have much love for politicians, but at least I can respect their points of view if they're willing to roll with the punches and accept responsibility for major actions. Farage here just sounds like a snake; argues a major point that has ramifications for everyone in the UK, and then says if it goes wrong, he'll pack up and leave. Spineless. At least I can respect the Tories for sticking to their guns through thick and thin, even if it comes across as bond villian-esque.

It's the double-speak of it that's so frustrating:

I couldn’t contemplate living anywhere else in the world.

He says, after admitting that if Brexit goes bad he plans to emigrate. That is contemplating it, motherfucker.

 

[Uzzy]

The UK would be terrible in a poker game.

In all seriousness though, at least some sense of rationality seems to be setting in according to this article.

Lets hope it lasts long enough to get a decent deal at the end of all this. The problem is that I imagine May and the rest of the Government will be driven more by appeasing the lunatics at the Express and Mail than anything else, even if that means losing Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

[kmag]

What's that sound? It's the sound of the UK being backed into a corner

He said: “We have heard that Theresa May is considering a cut-off date as the notification date. We completely disagree on this and we believe that the British citizens and those from the other 27 states are EU citizens until the day of the divorce. During this period the UK is a member state with full rights and obligations.

“It cannot be right that someone signing a work contract in the UK on Tuesday has more rights than someone signing a contract on Thursday.”

In a further sign that the chamber will prove a major thorn in the British prime minister’s side, the Guardian has learned that MEPs will also insist in their resolution that a trade deal cannot be sealed within two years but only after the UK leaves, echoing the position of the European commission.

It will demand that the European court of justice “should be the competent authority for the interpretation and enforcement of the withdrawal agreement”.

And while MEPs will say that Britain should be allowed to change its mind about leaving the EU during the two years of talks, they will insist that this must be strictly on terms decreed by the remaining 27 EU member states. MEPs want to ensure that revocation of the triggering of article 50 will not be used by the UK simply to buy more negotiating time once the two years of talks laid down in the treaty of Lisbon are done.

The parliament will also demand that the UK’s multi-billion pound financial liabilities, including commitments to spend on projects after 2019, should be paid in full by the Treasury. Senior figures in the European parliament have decided to issue further resolutions at key pinch-points in the talks, to strengthen the hand of the EU’s Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, as he sits down with David Davis, the secretary of state for exiting the EU.

The development lays bare the difficulties that will face Davis when he finally begins negotiations with Barnier in mid-May. The European parliament has the right to veto any deal between the EU and the UK when talks come to a close in 2019, and the MEPs’ opening diktat and its subsequent resolutions, while non-binding, will inevitably set the parameters for the negotiations.

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...off-date-european-parliament-freedom-movement

The EU has both the Parliament and the 27 member countries to please in these negotiations. I fully believe they'll stick to pretty tight redlines and it'll be up to the UK to take or leave it.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

Agree about Farage but Tories, any politicians, not at all. They have absolutely nothing to fear. Great pension, job security private or otherwise, perks. Shit hitting the fan does nothing to them.

Ehh, I wouldn't say most politicians have great job security really. They do have to worry about being re-elected. Sure, some polticians can get good private sector gigs if they aren't re-elected, but I think that only really applies for ex-cabinet members.

 

[Theonik]

Ehh, I wouldn't say most politicians have great job security really. They do have to worry about being re-elected. Sure, some polticians can get good private sector gigs if they aren't re-elected, but I think that only really applies for ex-cabinet members.

They get really good pension schemes though often at the expense of the taxpayer. Low oversight on this and expenses pretty much mean than one or two terms in parliament basically set them for life.

 

[QuicheFontaine]

They get really good pension schemes though often at the expense of the taxpayer. Low oversight on this and expenses pretty much mean than one or two terms in parliament basically set them for life.

Really, one term in parliament and you're set for life? Wow, Mhairi Black really hit the jackpot.

 

[Beefy]

Ehh, I wouldn't say most politicians have great job security really. They do have to worry about being re-elected. Sure, some polticians can get good private sector gigs if they aren't re-elected, but I think that only really applies for ex-cabinet members.

My uncle is in the Tories. Yet he is so unknown even other Tories wouldn't know him. Just him being on the fringes for 6 yrs has made him a millionaire. Not because of the pay he gets for being a Tory, but because of the connections he has built up being one. He recently sold his one bedroom flat in Westminster for just over a million. I hate the guy.

 

[Theonik]

Really, one term in parliament and you're set for life? Wow, Mhairi Black really hit the jackpot.

One term might be pushing it, but they do get allowances to run two households on top of a £74,000 base salary with different positions also carrying additional pay. In 10 years an MP can realistically accumulate a pretty decent fortune on top of a pretty tidy pension.

 

[kmag]

One term might be pushing it, but they do get allowances to run two households on top of a £74,000 base salary with different positions also carrying additional pay. In 10 years an MP can realistically accumulate a pretty decent fortune on top of a pretty tidy pension.

Plus 25% of their salary as a final pension in 10th

The average pension amount of pension in payment was approximately
£22,800 a year on 1 April 2014 to former MPs and office holders and
£14,200 a year to dependants.

 

[BigAl1992]

Actually, now that I think about, considering Article 50 will be triggered tomorrow, who's going to make the new OT for it? Might as well now that it's about to happen.

 

[Timbuktu]

Lets hope it lasts long enough to get a decent deal at the end of all this. The problem is that I imagine May and the rest of the Government will be driven more by appeasing the lunatics at the Express and Mail than anything else, even if that means losing Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Bring back 1973 Mail.

 

[Xando]

Bring back 1973 Mail.

Compare this to todays Mail:

 

[Beefy]

Still going with the NHS is failing because of people living longer bullshit I see.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

If Davis is as unimpressive in negotiations as he was on QT last night, the UK is quite screwed.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Still going with the NHS is failing because of people living longer bullshit I see.

I don't see how that's bullshit? Older age requires funding increasing beyond what can be reasonably achieved (especially when you take into account that it's actually local councils who bare a huge brunt of elderly care, something of a political outcome that doesn't reflect the cost of caring for them in the NHS's budget). The longer people live, the greater a problem it'll become.

 

[Mr. Sam]

MPs walk out of Brexit report in protest because it is "too gloomy":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39417715

 

[CTLance]

I never noticed how pale May looks.
Might just have been some vindictive guy on German TV fucking around with the levelling...

I mean, look at that healthy orange glow to the left... Trump would be proud. Still, May looking like a Zombie on this one and the Legs-It travesty above.

 

[Zaph]

MPs walk out of Brexit report in protest because it is "too gloomy":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39417715

Brexiters don't want the truth, they want everyone else to be in awe of the British Empire again.

 

[JonnyDBrit]

I never noticed how pale May looks.
Might just have been some vindictive guy on German TV fucking around with the levelling...

I mean, look at that healthy orange glow to the left... Trump would be proud. Still, May looking like a Zombie on this one and the Legs-It travesty above.

In fairness, there is about a decade and a half between the two in age, and May has evidently not aged especially gracefully. It's not really any fault of her own though.

As to the MPs walking out of the report because it was 'too gloomy' - I honestly expect a lot of that going forward. After all, who wants to listen to experts?

 

[Irminsul]

Bring back 1973 Mail.

Ah yes, nothing says "European integration" like a giant British flag planted directly on Paris.

 

[Burai]

MPs walk out of Brexit report in protest because it is "too gloomy":

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39417715

"I liked the bit about everyone getting a free cake. I just didn't care for the section about being forbidden from eating it."

 

[BigAl1992]

And here we go again:

Scottish Parliament backs referendum call

Nicola Sturgeon's call for a second referendum on independence for Scotland has been formally backed by the Scottish Parliament. MSPs voted by 69 to 59 in favour of seeking permission for a referendum before the UK leaves the EU. Ms Sturgeon says the move is needed to allow Scotland to decide what path to follow in the wake of the Brexit vote. But the UK government has already said it will block a referendum until the Brexit process has been completed.Prime Minister Theresa May, who met Ms Sturgeon for talks in Glasgow on Monday, has repeatedly insisted that "now is not the time" for a referendum. Her Scottish secretary, David Mundell, has said that the timescale could include "the Brexit process, the journey of leaving and people being able to understand what the UK's new relationship with the EU is, so they can make an informed choice if there was ever to be another referendum".

Ms Sturgeon, the Scottish first minister, told a debate ahead of the Holyrood vote that she was not seeking confrontation with the UK government, and only wanted "sensible discussions". She said: "My argument is simply this: when the nature of the change that is made inevitable by Brexit becomes clear, that change should not be imposed upon us, we should have the right to decide the nature of that change.
"The people of Scotland should have the right to choose between Brexit - possibly a very hard Brexit - or becoming an independent country, able to chart our own course and create a true partnership of equals across these islands." She added: "I hope the UK government will respect the will of this parliament. If it does so, I will enter discussion in good faith and with a willingness to compromise. "However, if it chooses not to do so I will return to the parliament following the Easter recess to set out the steps that the Scottish government will take to progress the will of parliament."

The two-day debate in the Scottish Parliament started last week but was suspended as news of the terror attack at Westminster emerged. MSPs were asked to mandate the Scottish government to take forward discussions with the UK government on the details of a section 30 order, which is needed to make a referendum legally binding. Ms Sturgeon is expected to make the formal request for a section 30 later this week - after Mrs May formally starts the Brexit process by triggering Article 50. Scottish voters rejected independence by 55% to 45% in a referendum in 2014, but Ms Sturgeon believes the UK voting to leave the EU is a material change in circumstances which means people should again be asked the question.

 

[8bit]

I never noticed how pale May looks.
Might just have been some vindictive guy on German TV fucking around with the levelling...

I mean, look at that healthy orange glow to the left... Trump would be proud. Still, May looking like a Zombie on this one and the Legs-It travesty above.

She's trying to cater to the orange vote.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

They are both nationalists playing at populism - May is just also a vampire.

Tomorrow will be the big day. Hope folks are ready for a tumultuous two years. Careers will be ruined. Brows will be furrowed. Nigel Farage will slowly disappear off of UK television.

The 2020 GE draws ever closer.

 

[Dead Man]

Good luck Britain.

 

[Jezbollah]

And here we go again:

Utterly futile.

 

[Huw_Dawson]

No, I'm not posting this because Clegg did it, I'm posting it because it's a really good piece for Newsnight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V-WEDoXx910&feature=youtu.be

It really does cover both sides well, too.

 

[Gurgelhals]

Farage being a grade A cunt in the European Parliament again today I see...

And Guy Verhofstadt of all people emerging again as one of the more cogen voices of sanity and reason in that mess. Great speech:

 

[Funky Papa]

I'm pretty sure that speech is old news, tbh.

 

[oti]

I'm pretty sure that speech is old news, tbh.

Even with the part about Assad's gas attack?

 

[CadetMahoney]

Theresa May suggests free movement extension

No doubt they'll immediately get rid of the EU human rights and replace it with a British Bill of Rights, new privacy bullshit very quickly, but the campaign bullet points Brexiters mostly voted for will be few and far between. dat NHS lol.

 

[pigeon]

May's emphasis on the referendum being about Britain controlling its immigration policy, rather than about any specific policy, reminds me oddly of Tsipras during the Greek crisis.

Basically it's fine for the UK to keep freedom of movement as long as they chose to do it rather than doing it because they're part of the EU.

 

[DarthMasta]

After seeing a talk with Michael Dougan (Irish professor, specialist on EU law https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EGzSGPsFHfE), and realizing just how much treaty reform has been kept back by Britain, just GTFO.

Not that I think that'll mean a better EU, just the possibility for one. Chances are it'll still be screwed someway, humans being what we are...

 

[Funky Papa]

Even with the part about Assad's gas attack?

Bizarre. I swear half of those lines have been used before.

 

[PJV3]

May's emphasis on the referendum being about Britain controlling its immigration policy, rather than about any specific policy, reminds me oddly of Tsipras during the Greek crisis.

Basically it's fine for the UK to keep freedom of movement as long as they chose to do it rather than doing it because they're part of the EU.

There was a poll a few day ago supporting free movement during transition but not EU court oversight. It is a common theme, the principle is more important than the reality of what is happening day to day.

 

[kmag]

If anyone has half an hour, the parliamentary committee on exiting the European Union's report is pretty interesting

https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmexeu/1125/1125.pdf

This is the one the Brexiteers flounced out of, it's actually pretty neutrally written, but I can see why the Brexiteers lost their shit. When it's down on paper just how much special access the UK is going to have to beg for it's relatively sobering.

 

[Lach]

If anyone has half an hour, the parliamentary committee on exiting the European Union's report is pretty interesting

https://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201617/cmselect/cmexeu/1125/1125.pdf

This is the one the Brexiteers flounced out of, it's actually pretty neutrally written, but I can see why the Brexiteers lost their shit. When it's down on paper just how much special access the UK is going to have to beg for it's relatively sobering.

For a second I thought they had a mechanism to prevent people from outside Britain to check the report, but it's just my chromes pdf viewer that's fucked up.

 

[Xando]

Transitional deal will not be longer than 3 years or EU parliament will veto:

The resolution also allowed transitional arrangements to smooth the UK's departure, but they should not last more than three years

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN1771C0

 

[kmag]

From listening to May, it really is remarkable that the timetable and framework of the what is now being talked about is slowly but surely coalescing around the principles the EU were talking about immediately after the referendum result.

If that doesn't tell you about the power dynamics here, nothing will.

 

[Makareu]

From listening to May, it really is remarkable that the timetable and framework of the what is now being talked about is slowly but surely coalescing around the principles the EU were talking about immediately after the referendum result.

If that doesn't tell you about the power dynamics here, nothing will.

It is the slow realization that the "No deal is better than a bad deal" card is actually in the hand of the EU, not the UK.

 

[CyclopsRock]

For a second I thought they had a mechanism to prevent people from outside Britain to check the report, but it's just my chromes pdf viewer that's fucked up.

Nope, that's actually what it looks like. We can't have the EU reading our plan, can we?