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The UK votes to leave the European Union |OUT2| Mayday, Mayday, I've lost an ARM

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The first week of negotiations will become a real reality check for May and the country.
I'd suggest that the EU might also get a reality check. I'm not sure they understand the willingness of the british people to burn it all down if it means sticking two fingers up at Merkel and Junker.
The evidence is there for all to see when you look at May's approval ratings.
The majority of our press are behind her, rallying the anti EU sentiment.
I've got a feeling things are going to get messy .
 

oti

Banned
I'd suggest that the EU might also get a reality check. I'm not sure they understand the willingness of the british people to burn it all down if it means sticking two fingers up at Merkel and Junker.
The evidence is there for all to see when you look at May's approval ratings.
The majority of our press are behind her, rallying the anti EU sentiment.
I've got a feeling things are going to get messy .

EU shouldn't play nice just because the UK has lost its mind.
 

slider

Member
I'd suggest that the EU might also get a reality check. I'm not sure they understand the willingness of the british people to burn it all down if it means sticking two fingers up at Merkel and Junker.
The evidence is there for all to see when you look at May's approval ratings.
The majority of our press are behind her, rallying the anti EU sentiment.
I've got a feeling things are going to get messy .

What's the bolded based on? Tub thumbing from people like Farage? I'm not being difficult. I just want to know!

Edit: And actually, if your post is accurate, it's an incredibly stupid position to be in.
 

Kyougar

Member
I'd suggest that the EU might also get a reality check. I'm not sure they understand the willingness of the british people to burn it all down if it means sticking two fingers up at Merkel and Junker.
The evidence is there for all to see when you look at May's approval ratings.
The majority of our press are behind her, rallying the anti EU sentiment.
I've got a feeling things are going to get messy .

why should we care?
 

PJV3

Member
I'd suggest that the EU might also get a reality check. I'm not sure they understand the willingness of the british people to burn it all down if it means sticking two fingers up at Merkel and Junker.
The evidence is there for all to see when you look at May's approval ratings.
The majority of our press are behind her, rallying the anti EU sentiment.
I've got a feeling things are going to get messy .

Some of the British people might be happy to burn their country down over this nonsense, a lot seem to be falling for the message about stability.
 
There's a real possibility of very high Brexit, damaging both sides and I think, politically, it's probably the most likely, since both sides can easily blame the other over the damage, and I'd guess both sides believe they have the upper hand.

If it turns ugly, and it very much can, I'd bet on British blame the EU press being replicated across the continent but with a blame the UK bent. I've already seen reports on my national TV on how the UK has turned into a bit of a racist hellhole for immigrants, depending on how negotiations go, that sort of thing can become commonplace.
 

Xando

Member
I'd suggest that the EU might also get a reality check. I'm not sure they understand the willingness of the british people to burn it all down if it means sticking two fingers up at Merkel and Junker.
The evidence is there for all to see when you look at May's approval ratings.
The majority of our press are behind her, rallying the anti EU sentiment.
I've got a feeling things are going to get messy .

The EU countries have repeatedly warned of a breakdown of negotiations because of the rhetoric and wrong expectations the UK goverment (and some media) have. The EU position has been more or less clear since before the referendum but was ignored as project fear.

I think they already know negotiations could break down because of these expectations (The FT qouted a EU official last week that says chances are higher than 50% that they will break down, will check to find article) but they are willing to take the hit to defend their position (Once again have to refer you to the greek situation in 2015 because the parallels are getting clearer and clearer).

I agree with you that things are going to get messy and i still think May will either fold completely or walk away at some point.
 
Some of the British people might be happy to burn their country down over this nonsense, a lot seem to be falling for the message about stability.

Quite. I suspect that for all the rhetoric of 'change' and 'hard brexit', a tiny minority actually want instability. People voted against Brexit because they have faith in their government not to fuck them over. They vote for change that isn't change, in a way.
 

oti

Banned
The Associated Press‏Verifizierter Account
@AP

BREAKING: Summit chairman says EU leaders unanimously adopt Brexit negotiating guidelines
 
Well, why should the EU care if the UK wants to burn the own country down?

It's nice to see some Realpolitik by the united EU.
Fires spread. Germany can take a hardline approach and probably won't see any significant economic hit and even if in the unlikely event they do , they have a strong enough economy to sort it out.
What's the bolded based on? Tub thumbing from people like Farage? I'm not being difficult. I just want to know!

Edit: And actually, if your post is accurate, it's an incredibly stupid position to be in.
Theresa May's approval ratings are higher than Blair or Thatchers
The EU countries have repeatedly warned of a breakdown of negotiations because of the rhetoric and wrong expectations the UK goverment (and some media) have. The EU position has been more or less clear since before the referendum but was ignored as project fear.

I think they already know negotiations could break down because of these expectations (The FT qouted a EU official last week that says chances are higher than 50% that they will break down, will check to find article) but they are willing to take the hit to defend their position (Once again have to refer you to the greek situation in 2015 because the parallels are getting clearer and clearer).

I agree with you that things are going to get messy and i still think May will either fold completely or walk away at some point.
I think Greece were far more willing to bend over than the UK will be. I can't see May folding completely and her willingness to just tip the table and leave the room could see her winning a massive majority in Westminster .
Once the tabloid media start the whole "EU thinks it can bully the brits" headlines and pictures of Merkel with a toothbrush moustache , spitfires , Captain Mainwaring telling Junker he's a "Stupid boy" ,Russian linesmen , Geoff Hurst and Donald tusks face on a pigs head snuffling in a trough the country will start to decend into a war times mentality and the circus of stupid will be in full on attack mode . Anything the Tories do then, even if it's going to hurt the poorest like a tax haven will be greeted with cheering and more importantly votes.
Maybe in 20 years when millennials are running the country we might become more pragmatic but Thatcher children run things at the moment and I can't see much other than a bumpy ride for a decade or two at least.
 

Zaph

Member
Not surprised - it's easy to draw up terms when you hold all the cards.

I can't believe we're still calling this a "negotiation". It'll be one guideline if we accept four freedoms and another if we don't. Pick one.
 

Xando

Member
I'm confused to see posts about EU with its reasonable demands and positions are somehow hostile against the UK.
Anything that isn't seen as the UK getting everything it wants will always be spun as if the EU is out to punish the UK by certain media.

This will only get worse when the real negotiations begin.
 
Fires spread. Germany can take a hardline approach and probably won't see any significant economic hit and even if in the unlikely event they do , they have a strong enough economy to sort it out.

Theresa May's approval ratings are higher than Blair or Thatchers

I think Greece were far more willing to bend over than the UK will be. I can't see May folding completely and her willingness to just tip the table and leave the room could see her winning a massive majority in Westminster .
Once the tabloid media start the whole "EU thinks it can bully the brits" headlines and pictures of Merkel with a toothbrush moustache , spitfires , Captain Mainwaring telling Junker he's a "Stupid boy" ,Russian linesmen , Geoff Hurst and Donald tusks face on a pigs head snuffling in a trough the country will start to decend into a war times mentality and the circus of stupid will be in full on attack mode . Anything the Tories do then, even if it's going to hurt the poorest like a tax haven will be greeted with cheering and more importantly votes.
Maybe in 20 years when millennials are running the country we might become more pragmatic but Thatcher children run things at the moment and I can't see much other than a bumpy ride for a decade or two at least.
Don't count on it.

As the saying goes: ‘If you’re not a liberal when you’re 25, you have no heart. If you’re not a conservative by the time you’re 35, you have no brain.’

It's just one of those things, people tend to shift to the right when they get older and become more jaded and cynical with the world. I know political issues that got me and my contemporaries fired up when we were 20 are not the same issues that concern us now at 29/30 and upwards. Like the other night, a dinner conversation we had about care workers earning low wages turned into a discussion about whether the policy of increasing the minimum wage to £10 (or however much) in 2020 is a good thing or not. Couldn't imagine having that conversation when we were 20! Would have probably been a conversation about legalising cannabis and increasing inheritance tax I think.
 

Xando

Member
Very interesting tweetstorm by Faisal Islam regarding EU guidelines:
1. "Reiterates wish to have UK as close partner... excludes SM sector-by-sector approach"... so a No to PMs "elements of single market"
2. EU27: "No separate negotiations between individual Member States" on Brexit
3. Phased approach 1: legal certainty citizens, finances
"Main purpose of negotiations to ensure orderly withdrawal, minimise disruption".
4. EU Council 27 will determine when "sufficient progress" on citizens, exit bill for next phase - ie for framework discussions on trade
5. "An agreement on future relationship between EU & UK can only be finalised/ concluded once UK becomes a third country"-ie not by Mar 2019
6. But once "sufficient progress" made "preliminary & prep" discussions will happen on "overall understanding of framework" post Brexit
7. So transition highly likely to be necessary to bridge between "framework" agreed under A50, and future deal agreed/ratified under A218
8. And in any transition period, full ECJ jurisdiction, budgets, commission oversight etc required. Could this all now last until GE 2022?
9. Citizens rights "first priority for the negotiations" - safeguarding rights "on date of withdrawal" ie Mar 29 2019 -NOT A50 or 23/6 date
10. All EU Law rights guaranteed for anyone until then, including permanent residence - means anyone here from Mar 29 2014 guaranteed
11. Divorce Settlement - no figure. "MFF" means Budget payments until end 2020 - apparently we have 55m in European Cen Bank capital! liabilities include pensions of EU staff, MEPs etc... contingent liabilities include some nuclear waste in Oxfordshire!
12. Reference to Ireland doesnt include that GFA unity clause explicitly - apparently will be considered in June: no hard border etc
13. EU trade deals (ie Korea) "will no longer cover" UK.. PM told me cd "continue"..also shd "honour share" other commitments (Turkey deal?)
14. European Medicines Agency, Banking agency etc will leave UK - but the reference in earlier draft that UK will pay for it, watered down
15. "Level playing field" for EU-UK in future trade deal re tax, regulations etc . Deep & Special partnership means no tax haven:
16. some reference here to Cooperation with City of London, as long as it "respects EU regulatory regime & standards" - inserted by French
17. Gibraltar reference stays. Spain will have additional veto on future trade deal on its application to Gibraltar:
18. "Sincere Cooperation" phrase was put in PM's Article 50 trigger letter too - basically dont undermine EU on trade deals etc on way out
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/858308441382817792

Most of it was already known but some changes were made to the original guidelines.
 
Spiegel Online has a great article about the mindset of the British exceptionalism.

For the average Englishman must it be a shock that after decades of EU holding down the UK propaganda they are getting confronted with the reality that being part of the EU was quite lucrative for them in all possible areas.
 
Spiegel Online has a great article about the mindset of the British exceptionalism.

For the average Englishman must it be a shock that after decades of EU holding down the UK propaganda they are getting confronted with the reality that being part of the EU was quite lucrative for them in all possible areas.

Is there a link/translation anywhere? Would like to read that!
 

Xando

Member
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...en-einzigartigkeit-gastbeitrag-a-1145134.html

Only in German.

Not sure if the article survives a Google translation.

Good article by Simon Tilford.

Especially this part:
Why do many British elites believe that, unlike the French and the Germans, they do not need the EU? One reason for this is their own view of British history. Great Britain did not have to rebuild its international reputation after the war to the same extent as Germany did. But too many see Britain as a beacon of democracy and freedom. Too few are aware that, as a consequence of British colonial history, Britain is less trusted and admired than they imagine it. EU membership of the British often helped to alleviate these historical tensions. By often acting as a bridge between the EU and the USA, the United Kingdom gained a disproportionate amount of influence.
A second reason for the hostility - or at best ambivalence - of the British elite against the EU is that London is reluctant to play the second fiddle behind the Franco-German partnership. Since Britain decided in 1973 to join the then EEC, the Union has for the British the taste of a Franco-German project that puts French and German interests above the UK. The British elite could never fully support a European project whose institutions were inadequately British. In connection with British aversion to any task of sovereignty, this impression is a major contributor to British aversion to the EU.
 
Good article by Simon Tilford.

Especially this part:

In relation to the point on Germany rebuilding its reputation after the war, I remember a BBC article from before the referendum that posited the point that unlike most other members of the bloc, Britain joined with economic gain as the main incentive. For much of the member states, joining the EEC and/or EU was a rejection of darker days. To avoid a return to fascism, communism, or otherwise simply not be embroiled in yet another war among each other. But Britain's relationship with the EU has so often been focused in business terms - we joined because we wanted access to our most lucrative market - and came at the apparent expense of our glory days. Instead of ruling our own Empire or heading our own Commonwealth, we were just another part of a dozens-strong Union. Evidently that does not sit well with some.
 

Xando

Member
This times article on the May & Juncker dinner is a fascinating read:


Brexit negotiations began with a blazing row yesterday as Brussels flatly rejected Theresa May's negotiating position and accused the prime minister of living in a ”parallel reality".

The other 27 EU member states took just four minutes to agree a hardline stance on Brexit at a summit meeting in Brussels before Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, and Michel Barnier, the chief European Union Brexit negotiator, rounded on the prime minister.

They told EU leaders that May had used a meeting with them on Wednesday night to demand that a ”detailed outline" of a future free trade deal be in place before the UK agrees to pay any money to Brussels as part of the Brexit divorce deal. An EU diplomat said: ”This was a rather incredible demand. It seemed as if it came from a parallel reality."

This morning May dismissed claims she was in a ”different galaxy" and brushed off calls for the UK to settle its Brexit bill before embarking on trade talks.
Juncker warned yesterday that May's approach would lead to an ”early crash", with Britain leaving the EU without a deal.

In an eight-page document outlining their position, the other 27 countries said the EU would ”prepare itself to be able to handle the situation if the negotiations were to fail". The guidelines also include offering Northern Ireland automatic EU membership should it join the Irish republic — a move seen as provocative in London — and giving Spain a veto over Gibraltar's future relationship with the bloc.

Juncker and Barnier told leaders that the Wednesday dinner at 10 Downing Street had also revealed huge differences over plans to recognise the rights of British citizens and EU nationals in each other's countries.

Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said a ”serious offer" was needed on migrant rights from the UK before trade talks could begin.

May said this morning that ”nothing is agreed until everything is agreed" and added that there is ”much more that we agree on" around the EU negotiating table.

She told the BBC's Andrew Marr Show: ”What they (EU leaders) are very clear about is, yes, they do want to start discussions about money.

”I'm very clear that at the end of the negotiations we need to be clear not just about the Brexit arrangement – the exit, how we withdraw – but also what our future relationship is going to be."

An EU diplomat told The Sunday Times: ”The UK's position is miles apart, both on their financial obligations and on the EU citizens' rights. The UK government simply wants to create a new category of ‘former EU citizens' in their migration law, but our position is that we must go much further than that."


The prime minister's stance that trade must come first was met with incredulity by EU officials, who said her chief EU sherpa, Oliver Robbins, had already agreed that the methodology for agreeing the Brexit bill would be ironed out first — along with the rights of EU citizens in Britain and the issue of the Irish border.

”She took a firm position against something we thought we had agreed," a diplomatic source said. ”It was completely unreal." The source said the prime minister's views on the financial settlement ”border on the delusional".

Over dinner, Juncker slapped down May by pulling out a copy of the EU-Canada trade deal, a 2,000-page document that took nearly a decade to negotiate, and recommended that the prime minister study its complexity
.

Juncker's aides said he then called Angela Merkel, Germany's chancellor, and complained that May appeared unaware of issues communicated to her staff. According to one of Juncker's aides, he told Merkel: ”It went very badly. She is in a different galaxy. Based on the meeting, no deal is much more likely than finding agreement."

May told the Andrew Marr Show this morning: ”I'm not in a different galaxy. What this shows is that there are going to be times when these negotiations are going to be tough."

Juncker's comments prompted Merkel to lambast British ”illusions" about Brexit in a speech to her parliament on Thursday. May responded that EU countries were ”ganging up" on Britain.

David Davis, the Brexit secretary, last night attacked those who were seeking to undermine the negotiations, calling them ”the most complex the UK has faced in our lifetimes".
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-is-living-in-another-galaxy-says-brussels-mlfrk928c
 
May is delusional. She is gonna make everyone suffer even more unless she finally gets back to this dimension. One can only hope that this bullshit stops once the election is over.

Edit: She has also made Merkel her enemy, which is even more stupid. Merkel can't do anything that may make her look even remotely weak until after the elections, because the UKs constant BS has made all the goodwill that certainly existed in the German population go away.
 

jelly

Member
Yikes, we are screwed. There is no common ground and she is delusional like many Brexit voters. Is anything going to be done in the next 4 years, I seriously see nothing with that attitude. Tories are probably hoping Le Pen gets in.
 

theaface

Member
This times article on the May & Juncker dinner is a fascinating read:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/may-is-living-in-another-galaxy-says-brussels-mlfrk928c

Wow, such strong and stable leadership. The strongest. Look at her go, being all firm with the EU. I'm sure they'll back down if she keeps being all strong and stable. Any day now.

May responded that EU countries were “ganging up” on Britain.

wellthereitis.gif

It happened slightly sooner than I expected, I must admit. Thought we'd at least get to May before that narrative got spun by the PM.
 

CTLance

Member
Pulling out that CETA mammoth must've been pretty cathartic for Juncker. Bet he wanted to slap her with the 2k pages by the end of the dinner.

On a side note, I wasn't aware UK citizens were struggling this much (from the spiegel article):
Wenigen ist bewusst, dass drei Viertel des Landes ärmer sind als der EU-15-Durchschnitt
Translated: "Few are aware that three quarters of the country('s populace) are poorer than the EU-15 average."

I mean, I guess that's mostly the peeps outside London, and I know that expenses out in the sticks are far more manageable, but three quarters is a huge amount of people. Granted, being poorer than the average of (the presumably most successful) half of the EU might not be all that painful, but still, it sure sounds frightening. Which is intended, by all means, but nonetheless something I hadn't even considered to that degree. I was aware that Thatcher et al bled the countryside dry in order to boost London, but to see it put in numbers is sobering.
 

slider

Member
Wow, such strong and stable leadership. The strongest. Look at her go, being all firm with the EU. I'm sure they'll back down if she keeps being all strong and stable. Any day now.

And what will happen when she rolls out her massive parliamentary majority? Oh, that's right. Nothing. God, we deserve better than this. :(
 

Number45

Member
David Davis, the Brexit secretary, last night attacked those who were seeking to undermine the negotiations, calling them “the most complex the UK has faced in our lifetime
It's funny that they're starting to admit this now, because they've spent the last 10 months telling everyone that we can pretty much have what we want.
 

jelly

Member
Wow, such strong and stable leadership. The strongest. Look at her go, being all firm with the EU. I'm sure they'll back down if she keeps being all strong and stable. Any day now.



wellthereitis.gif

It happened slightly sooner than I expected, I must admit. Thought we'd at least get to May before that narrative got spun by the PM.

Yep, us versus them. Media will follow. Sad that people can't see the UK government has been screwing then for decades.
 

jelly

Member
And what will happen when she rolls out her massive parliamentary majority? Oh, that's right. Nothing. God, we deserve better than this. :(

Do it like Trump, have you seen my majority coupon every week, what does that get us from EU......nothing.
 
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