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July 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 9th

farisr

Member
I might be crazy but unless Neo is at a great price I cant see it making a huge impact . Really don't see many people picking up the premium version vs the cheaper still capable regular PS4. It could come out at for a great price and be a really good value
It'll likely be around $399 to $449. If stocked well, even the neo by itself would likely sell more than everything else on the market in the month it launches due to enthusiasts buying it. Following months is a different story.

But we probably won't find out properly as to how it does as it's likely to be counted as a ps4, and since the ps4 is likely going to get a pricedrop at the same time, it's gonna be a crazy month.
 

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Wanna quote my comment from some days ago

******************************************************************

Honestly i think most of you are too "worry" to predict a good month for 3DS because you think could be strange, but at the same time you see all sings show 3DS should have a better month than you expect.

I think you should just go bolder than that. There is a really strong possible 3DS this month will do way better than last month, i think you know that but for some reason you wanna be conservate.

Next time don't underestimate Pokémon. :p

arceus-s-wrath-o.gif
 

jjonez18

Member
I might be crazy but unless Neo is at a great price I cant see it making a huge impact . Really don't see many people picking up the premium version vs the cheaper still capable regular PS4. It could come out at for a great price and be a really good value

I'm in agreement. Unless Sony start phasing out the PS4 (It think that would slow adoption considerably) then Neo will only account for a fraction of the PS4 family's total going forward. I'm guessing they know this considering the rumors and will launch a slim version at 299$ to take OG PS4's place and to compliment Neo.
 

donny2112

Member
3DS! 3DS! 3DS!
BUY FIRE EMBLEM!

On a semi-related note, there are now 3 Pokemon mainline games in the All-Time Top 20 for 3DS downloads. Omega Ruby just pushed out Ace Attorney 5 from the Top 20 this week. The thirst is real...
 
You should have seen the other thread that was titled with all caps at first. :p

GAF is really no better than Youtube and GameFAQ's at times.

I find this to have become an increasingly more common occurrence in recent times. Perhaps I didn't pay as much attention back when I joined or even lurked, but moderation does not feel as strict as it used to.
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
3DS>Xone>PS4>OUYA

I remember when people said that Pokemon Go proves that Nintendo needs to just go third-party and that mobile success wouldn't help with their dedicated hardware business. Now it seems possible that Nintendo may make more money from the ripple effect of Pokemon Go than from the app itself. That's kinda hilarious.

OUYA outsold Wii U confirmed.
 

Javin98

Banned
I find this to have become an increasingly more common occurrence in recent times. Perhaps I didn't pay as much attention back when I joined or even lurked, but moderation does not feel as strict as it used to.
Indeed, I noticed shit posting has been more rampant in the past few months. I thought it was just me at first getting tired of GAF's hyperbole, but I'm glad you feel the same.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Indeed, I noticed shit posting has been more rampant in the past few months. I thought it was just me at first getting tired of GAF's hyperbole, but I'm glad you feel the same.

hm, personally I feel it was worse when Xbox vs PS4 was actually a competition. NPD and other threads were vicious.


as far as that thread, I get the all caps was pretty unnecessary. But I've definitely seen more incendiary thread titles or misleading threads that didn't get changed and not nearly as quickly, but all caps did lol. I guess all caps just has that effect?
 

watdaeff4

Member
Some people might crucify me for this, but I always thought Greenberg and Major Nelson were hypocrites.

Anyway, still waiting for the numbers. Expecting a small gap either way, probably less than 15K

Greenberg absolutely is. Is awful. I haven't noticed that with Major Nelson but doesn't mean you're wrong. He's just not as blatant/obvious/obnoxious so I might miss it.

Agree it's a small margin....by a nose

Indeed, I noticed shit posting has been more rampant in the past few months. I thought it was just me at first getting tired of GAF's hyperbole, but I'm glad you feel the same.

I think the shit posting esp in MS and Xbox threads has been pretty strong for a couple of years at least. Hell whenever there is any thread with MS news good, bad or indifferent I can go into the thread knowing which posters have already made their appearance
 

Daemul

Member
Indeed, I noticed shit posting has been more rampant in the past few months. I thought it was just me at first getting tired of GAF's hyperbole, but I'm glad you feel the same.

Like Mory said it was actually worse in the early days of the gen, things got so bad that I had to resort to installing the GAF extension which allows you to hide threads so that I could block NPD and other sales related threads because they were just a massive clusterfuck. Things have somewhat calmed now that the PS4 has decisively won the gen, but the shitposting still rears its ugly head a on a regular basis in MS related threads.
 

Welfare

Member
I was fucking SPOT ON with PS4.

Thanks to Aqua's chart, we also get July 2015 numbers.

PS4 - 217.0k
XB1 - 187.8k
WIU - 45.9k
360 - 24.5k
PS3 - 20.9k
 

Javin98

Banned
Greenberg absolutely is. Is awful. I haven't noticed that with Major Nelson but doesn't mean you're wrong. He's just not as blatant/obvious/obnoxious so I might miss it.

Agree it's a small margin....by a nose



I think the shit posting esp in MS and Xbox threads has been pretty strong for a couple of years at least. Hell whenever there is any thread with MS news good, bad or indifferent I can go into the thread knowing which posters have already made their appearance
I don't want to be bad mouthing the execs, but it's ridiculous how they seem to encourage fans to invest in platform wars. Also, I don't want to bring the wars here, just stating my observations. It's better we keep NPD threads informative and rational.

hm, personally I feel it was worse when Xbox vs PS4 was actually a competition. NPD and other threads were vicious.


as far as that thread, I get the all caps was pretty unnecessary. But I've definitely seen more incendiary thread titles or misleading threads that didn't get changed and not nearly as quickly, but all caps did lol. I guess all caps just has that effect?
Well, title aside, the thread also brought out some shit posters. I also feel it was unnecessary to begin with. If someone cares about sales in the US, they should enter the NPD thread. It was as unnecessary as the Uncharted 4 thread bump.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
Well, title aside, the thread also brought out some shit posters. I also feel it was unnecessary to begin with. If someone cares about sales in the US, they should enter the NPD thread. It was as unnecessary as the Uncharted 4 thread bump.

true.

But just wait till NX wins its launch month tho!!

...i would hope.
 

Javin98

Banned
Damn, I was pretty close with my PS4 prediction. With XB1, I was off by about 13K. Let's see how I do in the end.

true.

But just wait till NX wins its launch month tho!!

...i would hope.
Geez, Internet forums are the worst when new consoles launch. Just wait for the launch of the Scorpio. Hoo, boy, if I'm still around then, think I might ignore GAF for a while.
 

Abdiel

Member
THANKS AQUAMARINE

A3hiOVs.png

So... it was a 10k difference, according to that chart, right?

Sheesh.

Throughout the entire month our stores were pretty consistent that PS4 was winning, so those crazy sales in the other retail chains and amazon must have what sold for it. Talk about close shave, haha. But that's why I said I had no idea how it would go.

So far, the XB1 S had it's preorders do a solid splash, so I expect that will lead to a win this month for the system regardless. PS4 is trucking along same as always, no change in its momentum, really.
 

Sterok

Member
So... it was a 10k difference, according to that chart, right?

Sheesh.

Throughout the entire month our stores were pretty consistent that PS4 was winning, so those crazy sales in the other retail chains and amazon must have what sold for it. Talk about close shave, haha. But that's why I said I had no idea how it would go.

So far, the XB1 S had it's preorders do a solid splash, so I expect that will lead to a win this month for the system regardless. PS4 is trucking along same as always, no change in its momentum, really.

Did you notice Pokemon Go doing a lot for the 3DS?

XB1 can't seem to get a big lead over PS4 when it wins unless there's a really crazy fire sale. Kind of a hollow victory, but more sales are still more sales, so whatever makes MS happy.
 
I was off on PS4 by 10k (expected 170k) and XB1 by about 35k (expected 205k).

XB1 underperformed quite a bit to what I was expecting given the price cut and fire sale.
 

watdaeff4

Member
I don't want to be bad mouthing the execs, but it's ridiculous how they seem to encourage fans to invest in platform wars. Also, I don't want to bring the wars here, just stating my observations. It's better we keep NPD threads informative and rational.


Well, title aside, the thread also brought out some shit posters. I also feel it was unnecessary to begin with. If someone cares about sales in the US, they should enter the NPD thread. It was as unnecessary as the Uncharted 4 thread bump.

True but if we don't want to bring warz here probably best never mention it initially...

and the only time the NPD thread stayed informative or rational was last month
 
let's see how I did:

I haven't actually done predictions much this year, but here goes:

[PS4] 180k
[XB1] 160k
[3DS] 150k
[WIU] 30k

PS4: off by 18.8k
XB1: off by 11.1k
3DS: off by at least 21.1k
WIU: off by 5.1k

maybe I should've revised my 3DS prediction up but I already had one of the highest ones lol
 

watdaeff4

Member
Did you notice Pokemon Go doing a lot for the 3DS?

XB1 can't seem to get a big lead over PS4 when it wins unless there's a really crazy fire sale. Kind of a hollow victory, but more sales are still more sales, so whatever makes MS happy.


Would be shocked if he didn't.

Yeah the perceived value of Xbox one pretty much dictates that. Will be interesting if the S can maintain momentum due to being the cheapest UHD player but I don't know how many households have those TVs in the US. I suspect by November the PS4 will outsell, would say earlier but don't know if Gears will move many consoles
 

Welfare

Member
Code:
Xbox One 171,100

MoM Drop = 19.3%

YoY Drop = 8.9%

Weekly average

Xbox One June: 211,900 / 5 = 42,380
Xbox One July: 171,100 / 4 = 42,775

Rise = 0.9%

Code:
PS4 161,200

MoM Drop = 31.3%

YoY Drop = 25.7%

Weekly average

PS4 June: 234,500 / 5 = 46,900
PS4 July: 161,200 / 4 = 40,300

Drop = 14.1%

Code:
Wii U 24,900 

MoM drop = 28%

YoY drop = 45.7%

Weekly average

Wii U June: 34,600 / 5 = 6,920
Wii U July: 24,900  / 4 = 6,225

Drop = 10%

Xbox One actual rose in weekly average this month.
 

N.Domixis

Banned
This is xbox's main problem outside of the second holiday these consoles have been out, whenever xbox wins its always around 10K. It can't catch up like this.
 

donny2112

Member
Yeah! If Aqua can post the overall industry MOM/YOY Units change for this month, we can probably back out the 3DS value, too. Still expect Nintendo to say something about it, though. Great to tout 1) July HW sales, 2) repeat 8/26 Nintendo Selects lineup, 3) trumpet MH and Pokemon sales, and 4) plug the new n3DS HW at $150 w/SM3DLand releasing this month.
 
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