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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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People keep on saying that once Pokemon or Monster Hunter hits.. It will be game over.

Didn't MH came out on the Wii U also? It got great reviews.. But didn't save the Wii U at all.

MH for Wii U was port of the 3DS game, not originally released for it. Unless Capcom decides to multiplat the franchise, Switch will get an exclusive title which will boost it's sales for sure (in Japan foremost).
 

itsFizz

Member
I think compared to WiiU it will be considered a success. However as the followup to 3DS and WiiU anything less than those two combined should actually be considered a failure, as that´d mean yet another contraction of Nintendos` fanbase. I think switch will sell 40-50 million units lifetime so all in all yet another downwards development for bigN
 

BajiBoxer

Banned
I think the Switch should do much better than the Wii U, though I don't know that it will hit 3DS numbers as is.

I was thinking part of the strategy here was to merge the handheld and home console development, and make development easier (and cheaper) going forward. Though the Switch itself is a hybrid console, they could always push out a purely portable version for relatively cheap in the future to help fill that space.

If they're flexable enough, there could be a few different creative ways to keep the platform fresh.

One thing they should do though is court indie devs. Look at how long indies and niche jrpgs kept the Vita chugging along after Sony basically abandoned it.
 
I think it depends on the messaging a bit.

The launch window is actually not so bad and having even just Zelda d1 is leagues better than 3ds and Wii U launch droughts where I think a lot of early adopters were left playing Wii and DS games while they waited for worthwhile software on the new systems. Zelda, Mario Kart, and Splatoon 2 within months of launch is not bad. I think it looks worse than it really is because the mid-cycle launch.

Apart from that, portability will be a thing. As a home console, it is functionally not going to be much different than a Wii U for a lot of people and we know what happened there. In regions where it is more common to use a handheld, I think Switch has a good place in the market. I commute by train to work every day and live in a place where everyone--man, woman, and, child--totes around bags and has more than enough room to comfortably carry around a Switch. For me the console looks great and there's really no competition for which platform I'll want to be picking up PS4/Switch multiplats. But this is the environment here. In the states, it would be less appealing.
 

Celine

Member
What's Switch?
Because I expect a lot of different hardware based on the same architecture (among them a more portable device).

I expect Switch family to perform better than WiiU.
How much better? It'll depend on Nintendo ability to create a true killer app for it .(safe prediction I know :p).

Compared to WiiU, I expect Switch to have/be:
- has better marketing
- more port friendly due to the system supporting popular third party engines from the get go (but the true extent of ports will depend on the economical success potential third party will see on the platform.
- Zelda will turn heads in the west, which is somethin nsmbwu while selling good couldn t have done.
- Switch will have at least a bit of hype behind it at launch which is something Wiiu lacked (Wiiu hype completely deflated before launch in the two years from its unveiling at E3 2011).
- i m unsure about how 1,2 Switch will fare but it's a concept in the right direction (toy/party game experience, easy and quick to understand and setup a session).
- Seems the first system launched by the younger Nintendo employees, I expect to be more exciting than Wiiu (again not saying much).
 
I'd put it somewhere between Wii U and GameCube, because I don't think the masses will view it in the same way as a traditional Nintendo handheld, instead viewing it more as a home console. So I don't think they'll get all the handheld gamers on board. Plus, the handheld market is increasingly going to go to smartphones anyway.

The Wii U showed how limited the core fanbase is for Nintendo home consoles these days, and I don't think the Switch will win over the casual market in the same way as the Wii which benefited greatly from the waggle craze. Other core gamers will likely be put off by a lack of hardware grunt and poor third party support severely limiting the number of games released, which could turn out worse than the Wii U.

It'll sell out at launch of course.
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Anybody who reads Japanese forums know what their reaction to the switch is like?

About the same as in the west. Largely mixed between those who like a fair amount of the software showed but are bitterly divided on the hardware, the concept of the hardware itself, the launch games and games for the first year, the online requirement, the overly expensive peripherals and price of the main unit itself compared to other gaming machines ect.
 
Having mainline Pokemon games on the Switch is almost guaranteed to do better than WiiU. If they have a excellent Holiday bundle and have good price cuts overtime($250 2018 and $199 2019), it might do around a little less than N64 numbers(35 millon), which is good for Nintendo since they see this as a home console. However, if they have no plans on making a true successor to 3DS and the Switch is the actual replacement for both 3DS and Wii U, then selling N64 numbers is not close to being good enough.

Also, I do expect sellouts for Switch at launch, but will have issues for the months after March and April with selling stock due to low demand.
 
Sitting down looking at things objectively, I have no clue.

I do feel comfortable saying this should do better than the Wii U. Maybe 30 - 50 million at least.

The first year is just so weird to predict at this point in time. It honestly seems like word of mouth throughout the year and some good holiday deals/games/bundles etc. will be what makes or breaks it. Zelda, MK, and Splatoon should hopefully have legs and the launch should be relatively respectable, at least.

Basically I think this might be like the 3DS and the holiday will be when things start getting serious.
 
I have a lot of thoughts about Switch. Especially since I do own some Nintendo stock. Not enough to shake a stick at, but still. So here are a few observations:

1) The hardware appears excellent for the most part. It clearly can not run all Xbone and PS4 games, not even close. But it puts out great graphics for a handheld, and possibly "good enough" graphics for the tv for most people.

2) The messaging and execution Nintendo failed again, and I would argue you failed worse than with the initial Wii U video. Your initial Switch video was concise, it should portable gaming, home gaming, e-sports gaming, and hardcore gaming. Your reveal was chasing the "blue ocean" of casuals. So there is some confusion on who this device is for. I think most people would be ok with the initial video announcing the Switch and if you said by the way we will also have motion controls with ARMS, Just Dance, and the inevitable Switch Sports. That would have gone over very well I think. Instead, what Nintendo did was create a mixed message to who this product is marketed towards.

3) Just a couple of things to point out with the Nintendo games:

--1,2 Switch - mini game collection, chasing blue ocean. The "milking" game is probably not appropriate at all. Innocent in design, but you don't want kids doing that across the planet. Are you kidding me?! Hopefully the take some time to thing about this before release.
--Mario Switch - First off it is beautiful. It's an Interesting concept, but Mario is a little jarring next to humans. Probably would have been better if it was animal characters. If "Honk if you Donk" is real, I really don't know what to say about that. But a bigger issue is Mario himself. Actually his size. Mario is the size of a child. It stands to reason that Princess Peach is also the size of a child, albeit a little taller than Mario. So, is Peach actually a little girl this whole time in a princess outfit!? You see where this is going? Mario, a man with a mustache and a little girl playing princess. NOT A GOOD LOOK!!! Looks like a possible pedophile. That should change before release.

-- Zelda looks amazing. Without knowing everything coming out in 2017, GOTY nomination. Great job!!!
-- ARMS, looks different. But it is a new concept and if your embracing motion controls again, this is the type of game Nintendo should be doing. I'm not sure it should be a $50 or $60 game though.
-- Mario Kart looks great!
-- Splatoon looks good!! I would have like to seen some e-sports integration. Hopefully that will be at E3.

-- Now comes the third party, or the lack thereof. What the hell was Nintendo thinking. This doesn't inspire confidence in third parties, investors, or perspective consumer.

Third parties dislike Nintendo and their business practices. Nintendo needed to pay for porting games like Skyrim (which was a money hat, I'm sure.) But not having games in the launch window is going to lead to droughts again.

Nintendo should have money hatted ports big and small to to get third parties up and running on Switch. Paying for ports isn't something the Japanese like to do, but it should be done. Nintendo is against a rock and a hard place. Nintendo can not win continuing operating under the same old way they always have.

While I agree Switch is the future of the home consoles. A dedicated system for each player is an ingenious idea and probably what should happen to gaming.

Nintendo should have paid for games to be ported that would absolutely run on Switch. Dragon Quest Builders, World of Final Fantasy, Rocket League, and Overwatch would all run on Switch, why aren't these games there? Why didn't Nintendo pay for these exclusives?

Fifa using a 360 port is inexcusable. Nintendo should have helped EA getting a decent version running on Switch.

Nintendo should have approached western and eastern third parties and brought their games to Switch.

Nintendo will also probably drop price of Switch by Christmas 2017. I expect, you will see Christmas prices of $229.

These failures fall on the shoulders of Nintendo leadership. Allegedly they have followed Iwata's' beliefs for Switch. This is by no means of disrespect to Iwata, but his leadership should have been under more scrutiny after the launch of 3ds and Wii U.

Switch seems like a good piece of tech, but it needs some help asap. First money hat, money hat, money hat!!! If they don't, and third parties won't willing come aboard, Switch is in big trouble. Second, Nintendo should be focusing on e-sports at the same time as the blue ocean that they have gone after. Lastly, I hope this isn't just a dirty cash grab, before Nintendo sell the company off it they can convince Apple, Google, Disney, or Microsoft to offer up some cash.
 
It will do better than the WiiU but that's about it. I don't see it being a huge success for Nintendo at all. It will probably fall in line between the WiiU and Gamecube.
 
That would be absolutely terrible because that puts it in just Gamecube territory where this thing is supposed to get their console and handheld sales.

For perspective, while the Wii U only sold around 13 million in it's lifetime the 3DS is over 61 million, the Switch is supposed to target both markets combined. So that'd(20 to 30 million) be around a 50% reduction in overall market share.

That would be horrid remember we are replacing WiiU + 3ds sales here ... Horrid

not sure what nintendo is expecting here or where the sales will come from. i am personally buying it, i can't live without nintendo first party and i loved wiiU. but for the general gamer out there (which you are trying to tap into.... the hardcore fan isn't going to get you beyond 10-15 mil) where are the sales going to come and why? why wouldn't someone looking to buy a new game system go with a ps4, which is the same price (or cheaper) and a lot more features/games?

of course, who knows, maybe nintendo has some incredible game/idea thats going to come out and catch on. but short of that, the regular mario/zelda/etc. aren't going to move anywhere in the ballpark of where ps4 (50 mil+) is, let alone wherever ps4 ends up at the end of its life
 
No chance of being a hit, or having anymore sucess than WiiU, I actually believe it will perform even worse than the WiiU.

They are so out of touch with the world, its outstanding they would make such a huge mistake.
 
I see this doing about as well the Xbox One. I expect 40-50 million lifetime because there will be the inevitable migration of 3DS game development over to the platform (unless the system is just dead by next spring or something). I doubt we'll see a price cut this holiday unless the launch is a mess sales wise and the months past don't pick up. I bet that we'll see bundles, however; although I can't see Mario Odyssey being the pack in - more than likely it'll be 1-2 Switch or Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.

If sales don't pick up past that, I think we're going to start to see Nintendo reveal their backup plan for the Switch in 2018 - a purely portable device, maybe with a bigger battery and definitely with no dock. I could see that being $250 (although I don't think that's a big enough drop, that's how low I feel they'd be willing to go after one year of being on the market).

However, that's my worst case scenario. I think by this holiday we'll have a better outlook on what 2018 holds in store for the Switch, and the lineup will be good enough once Mario's out that Nintendo will have a pretty strong holiday in terms of sales. A Neon Switch with 1-2 Switch packed in can be Nintendo's saving grace this holiday imo.
 
Mentioned it in the conference thread, but I'm having a really difficult time seeing this as being a modest success in the long term (that is to say, reaching PS4/3DS levels of commercial success). The high development costs / pricing of the system and accessories, the mostly lackluster launch lineup, questionable third-party support, and (especially) having to pay online (which hasn't even been proven at this point to meet modern standards first), are all huge strikes against it in my view.

My guess is that it might see some okay success during its first year of launch (all the way up to the holiday season), but then gradually stalling and never recovering in the long-run after that. Depending on regions, it may see some adequate success in Japan simply due to it being a portable platform, but tanking hard in the West (especially Europe). My guess are LTD numbers being either somewhat better than Wii U (probably GameCube levels of sales, which I voted for) or bombing even harder than the Wii U did and taking the new crown of being Nintendo's worst-selling platform that isn't the Virtual Boy.
 
Mentioned it in the conference thread, but I'm having a really difficult time seeing this as being a modest success in the long term (that is to say, reaching PS4/3DS levels of commercial success). The high development costs / pricing of the system and accessories, the mostly lackluster launch lineup, questionable third-party support, and (especially) having to pay online (which hasn't even been proven at this point to meet modern standards first), are all huge strikes against it in my view.

My guess is that it might see some okay success during its first year of launch (all the way up to the holiday season), but then gradually stalling and never recovering in the long-run after that. Depending on regions, it may see some adequate success in Japan simply due to it being a portable platform, but tanking hard in the West (especially Europe). My guess are LTD numbers being either somewhat better than Wii U (probably GameCube levels of sales, which I voted for) or bombing even harder than the Wii U did and taking the new crown of being Nintendo's worst-selling platform that isn't the Virtual Boy.
Price will come down and many japanese third parties will announce more games on it.

Pokemon will do the rest.
 
V

Vilix

Unconfirmed Member
I seriously doubt it. And this is coming from someone who loves Nintendo.
 

Revas

Member
Once handheld franchises begin to transition from 3DS to Switch the system will sell. Its surprising to me that people believe that the devs who make 3DS ownership worthwhile will just stop making games. The Switch being successful seems like a pretty safe bet.
 
I do wonder how much of the handheld market will really move over to the Switch, where everything would become more expensive and cumbersome for them. To me, the easier path would seem to be gaming on their phones instead.

In addition, there are new generations of young gamers growing up playing games on phones instead of traditional handhelds, so I expect the traditional handheld market to continue to decline.
 

Revas

Member
I think the similarities between mobile games and tradition handheld games are being grossly overstated. I'm sure some developers will test the mobile waters, but it's also safe to assume some will develop for the Switch. If Switch owners gravitate to these decidedly handheld experiences then other developers will invest in the platform as well. The mobile market is as fickle as the other gaming segments and there's no reason to assume a game will catch on just because it's on iPhone/Android. So there's risk all around, but Switch owners will need something to play.
 

HotHamBoy

Member
I think it depends on the messaging a bit.

The launch window is actually not so bad and having even just Zelda d1 is leagues better than 3ds and Wii U launch droughts where I think a lot of early adopters were left playing Wii and DS games while they waited for worthwhile software on the new systems.

But at least they COULD play Wii and DS games. Switch has no direct BC, so people who didn't own a Wii U aren't going to be able to fill in the dry periods, especially the early ones, by checking out Wii U stuff they never played.

It was the same for Wii playing GC and DS playing GBA and GBA playing GB/C. Etc.

PS4 doesn't have BC, sure, but they have tremendous third party support and they even got PS Now going. I can't see a Nintendo Now service happening.
 

Zen Aku

Member
I wonder what are the chances of the Switch getting 3rd party AAA games like CoD, Madden, Battlefield, etc in the future. Cause right now the only things they got to appeal to mainstream gamers are Fifa and NBA.

I mean, thats certainly better than what the Wii or Wii U has. But it might not be enough. I highly doubt Nintendo want people to think that their console should play second fiddle to the PS4 and Xbox One. Even though it looks like the case.
 
Price will come down and many japanese third parties will announce more games on it.

Pokemon will do the rest.

Considering the amount of tech that's been packed into the Switch and its accessories, and how much they both respectively cost, I wouldn't expect a price drop anytime soon. We're likely looking at another Wii U scenario of the price not changing until years later, and when it does it won't be a significant cut.

I'll give you Japanese third-party developers buying into the Switch, and its part of why I said the Switch in Japan it'll likely do decently for itself. Western third-party developers are likely a different story.

And while Pokemon is one of Nintendo's successful IPs I think the notion that Pokemon alone will make the Switch a bona-fide success, or will single-handedly save whatever misfortunes the Switch may have, is a hilariously mistaken one.

EDIT: Never mind that it's not like Switch will be the only place you can get Pokemon as it is. Pokemon Sun and Moon sold really well on the 3DS despite it being five years old and supposedly being on its way out. Anyone who wanted their Pokemon fix would be able to get it on a platform that's considerably cheaper and more portable than the Switch will be in comparison. 3DS also doesn't charge for online either.
 
To quickly follow up on the posts above, Reggie's statements to Chris Kohler of Wired (published at 8:34PM EST on 01/13/16) on the subject of supply:
https://www.wired.com/2017/01/reggie-fils-aime-nintendo-interview/
What we've said publicly is that there will be 2 million units that will be shipped worldwide for the launch, essentially through month one.

I know, because I read the boards and I read the comments, that there is concern about supply. From what I've read, the concern seems to stem from the lack of ability to buy NES Classic. So what I would say is this: Two million for essentially the first month is a huge number, especially when you look and see that this is not peak seasonality. This is essentially the first three weeks of March. Our focus is making sure that the consumer who wants to buy a Nintendo Switch can buy a Nintendo Switch. That's how we build our supply chain, that's how we think through the amount of product that's available.

What happened with NES Classic is that was a situation where the global demand was well in excess of anything we had anticipated, and that's what created shortages. The good news, at least for consumers in the Americas, is we're going to continue to make the NES Classic available. With the ongoing level of supply, the ongoing demand is going to be met. We know the concern.

...Seems Nintendo learned nothing from the NES Classic debacle... They could have opened Switch pre-orders months in advance and created enough of them to meet demand, but instead they are going to ship 2 million for the first month... WORLDWIDE...

Update: At the present time (01/15/16 at 1:35AM EST), the Switch is sold out at Amazon (one / two), Gamestop (one / two), Best Buy (one / two), Target (one / two), and Walmart (one / two). Previous posts on this subject:

To focus the question in the OP a bit more, do folks have specific predictions about exactly when/how this chart (Amazon's current 'Best Sellers in Video Games' Chart) will change, over time?

What will this chart look like a few days from now? What will it look like a few weeks from now?
...My understanding is that pre-orders were open for some time, long enough to sell through the quantities that were available for pre-order, and to thereby make an impact on the chart...
We knew the quantities of Zelda's Master Edition would be limited, and that Nintendo would not be making any additional quantities available after initial supply was exhausted. So it makes sense that the Master Edition has dropped from #4 on the Amazon Best Sellers list – at around 11AM (see the first post, above), when it was already listed as unavailable – to #15, at the present time.

The Switch itself is still at #1 (unchanged), and Zelda's Special Edition is still at #4 (down from #3 at around 11AM), even though these two items had also already been listed as unavailable as of 11AM. It's not clear why these two items – unlike Zelda's Master Edition – have managed to stay at the top of the chart: perhaps Nintendo made additional quantities of them available at some point (before selling out again), or perhaps their 'staying power' is simply due to a comparatively large initial supply.

In any case: when do you think this Amazon 'Best Seller' chart will take a turn for the worse, for Nintendo? And will it be due to a lack of demand, from consumers, or a lack of supply, from Nintendo? Will Nintendo be able to recover from whatever drop occurs, in your estimation? What is most likely to be the cause of such a drop, in your estimation? What would be the best way for them to recover?

EDIT: The Amazon US 'Best Sellers in Video Games' chart, as of 1:55AM EST on 01/14/16: http://imgur.com/a/BuxZQ
 
I don't think so. It's gonna be like the Wii U. I mean, the launch lineup is pretty damn bad, even with a cool looking Zelda game. I hope it does wel though, my childhood is defined by the lovely nes.
 

Malakai

Member
Nintendo's market position is amazingly bad right now, if you ask me.

I'm thinking about how when the WiiU bombed and 3DS was wavering, it became clear that Nintendo should have done what Yamauchi advised them to do before he passed, come up with a third pillar, that way Nintendo can diversify and mix up their timing and take more risks by being more able to absorb hits. The WiiU was a punch to Nintendo's stomach and 3DS wasn't strong enough to deflect it.

Nintendo's home console pillar is now gone. And they're trying a rebranded WiiU to save the handheld pillar from the 3DS's wobbles. It looks horrible. It looks SO strategically horrible. The best case scenario, which is the Switch being accepted as a Nintendo handheld, more or less (which 2/3 of poll respondents don't even see happening) represents an astonishing collapse for Nintendo and puts them in a strategically bad place. The worst case scenario (Switch is a WiiU-or-worse bomb) has the potential to slam Nintendo completely unguarded.

Nintendo really did nothing with their ridiculously-fortuitous combined Wii/DS victory. It's mind-boggling.

Welp, there's always cell phone games. And going third party. And that theme park sounds like a good idea.


It was rushed to meet launch and people hated the form factor, and the market never bought into the "third pillar" nonsense so it only succeeded as a handheld after it picked up the remains of the GameBoy Advance.

Nintendo could barely support 2 platforms (see 3DS and Wii U lack of software for long stretches of time). Ironically, by the Switch being a hybrid that have two modes that developers have to target, the Switch can easily become three or even more pillars...

As it look right now it does look bad; however, I do think there are things that Nintendo can do to turn it around.
 

Bioshocker

Member
When reading comments here I get that Wii U deja vu. "They'll drop the price if it doesn't sell well", "They can release it without the dock/Gamepad", "The games will come". It all seems very familiar. Unlike Microsoft remember that Nintendo are not famous for their quick and sudden moves.

The Wii U had its own problems, the kind that Switch won't have because it's a more thought through system and easier to market. Unlike the Wii U people will understand what this is. But the similarities are also there, and that is concerning for Nintendo. I always knew it would be hard to get third parties onboard after the hard lesson they learnt with Wii U. But I still was naive enough to think Nintendo would have something crucial to show from third parties at their own event. What we saw was beyond abysmal. Embarrassing.

I still think that could have moderate success in Japan, but gosh, in the West this could be really bad if third party support is as sparse as we get the impression of.
 

Cheerilee

Member
Nintendo could barely support 2 platforms (see 3DS and Wii U lack of software for long stretches of time). Ironically, by the Switch being a hybrid that have two modes that developers have to target, the Switch can easily become three or even more pillars...

As it look right now it does look bad; however, I do think there are things that Nintendo can do to turn it around.

Home and portable consoles both rise and fall. They earn money during the high points and lose money during the low points. If Nintendo staggers the release of both lines, then the profits from one can soften the losses from another. That's why the Virtual Boy's launch was rushed, because they had some time free before the launch of the N64. If they let it bake for a while longer, it would've come out at the same time as the N64, and that would've been bad.

Switch being a consolidation of two pillars into one means it can do the work of two pillars (it can be home for both home and portable-style games), but it's still just one pillar. It will rise and fall and Nintendo will feel every bump.

Nintendo's inability to support two platforms (without third party support) is an entirely different issue. Riding high on the Wii, Nintendo saw the PS3 and Xbox 360 struggling to adapt to HD development and they did nothing to prepare for that challenge until WiiU was in their face, and then they had to raid the handheld department for reinforcements, causing both departments to be understaffed. That doesn't change the general idea that it would be better for Nintendo to have three (hopefully properly staffed) pillars, as opposed to one.
 

Melchiah

Member
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=1273273

TL:DR: Lionel Mandrake believes (perhaps jokingly, I don't even know) that Thor 2 is the worst comic book movie. So NeoGAF has accepted that as a meme.

Thanks. You know what's worse though? The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen. The only thing extraordinary about it was how it managed to screw up with Alan Moore's material to such an extent, and get Sean Connery on board, when even Peter Jackson failed to do so with Lord of the Rings.
 
Impossible to say. They will have a tough time unless they lower the price of their console and their prepherials(controllers, dock). It should do better than the Wii u. First party support and just Japanese support in general is fantastic.. They need third party support though.
 

Cheerilee

Member
Thanks. You know what's worse though? The League of Extraordinary Gentlemen. The only thing extraordinary about it was how it managed to screw up with Alan Moore's material to such an extent, and get Sean Connery on board, when even Peter Jackson failed to do so with Lord of the Rings.

And it broke Sean Connery's soul. Do you know how many Bond villains have failed to do that? League of Extraordinary Gentlemen is like the king of villainy.
 

Melchiah

Member
And it broke Sean Connery's soul. Do you know how many Bond villains have failed to do that? League of Extraordinary Gentlemen is like the king of villainy.

hFftAdP.gif
 

stryke

Member
Now that Nintendo's titles have been consolidated onto a single platform, going by 3DS numbers as a guide it should do better than WiiU however I think they've priced themselves out of that portable market for now. It should do better once price goes down.
 
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