Pau said:

It's real life getting in the way, especially with the game starting earlier than advertised. I have a fairly large paper due tonight for an ivy league that can pretty much decide my future as far as graduate school plans go. Alas, it is not on mafia so writing posts doesn't help towards my page count!

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CornBurrito said:

Did I make a post on Ambien, because I dont recall ever voting for Goshu and I think you are confusing me for someone else.

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*Splinter said:

kgtrep: I quite like that theory, lol

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kingkitty said:

This is my plan.

Plan 1) This isn't a great plan, but I don't want to see day 1 devolve into needless role claims. It might not be "very helpful", but whatever, it's just a silly idea, people don't have to dig it.

Plan 2) My death

In the (seems like high) possibility people react negatively to my plan, which then leads to my own death. Well so be it. My death could "very helpful" for the town, maybe. Hopefully. It depends I guess. Then I can watch, stress free from the comfort of dead island, to see if my move actually paid off. Which there's a good chance it won't. But hey, it might.

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kingkitty said:

it seems like the school is not vibing to my idea.

so I'll

unvote: goshujinsama

I thought it was a great idea, the best idea. But I guess I'll have to change course. Hopefully the school doesn't turn into a role claim fest.

If you think I'm an incompetent despair (to be fair, I was a slightly lazy werewolf in another game) then fine. I'm a despair who mistyped "ViviOggi" into ctrl-f. I'm a despair who secretly "fished for roles". I'm a despair who targeted the only currently known power role for eviction, while at the time, being under suspicion by others.

Perhaps I'm a despair who is purposely looking incompetent. People can say "hey that person is acting incompetent, he can't possibly be despair!".

Anyways, I understand the blood god's need for blood. If you think I'm an incompetent despair who made some ill advised moves without even discussing it with the other despairs, then quench your blood thirst. If you think I'm purposely acting incompetent in order to avoid suspicion, quench your blood thirst. I can freely say this because because even in death, I will help lead this school to victory...or defeat, hopefully victory.

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Crab said:

It was interesting and I have ideas about it, but right now we're not really looking for a 100% confirmed no alternatives honest-to-goodness prime rump mafia; it's only day one. I'm much more concerned with making sure we have as wide a spread of information on as many different players as possible to serve for future days, so I'm going to be focusing heavily on players that aren't volunteering information.

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Crab said:

Don't look for mafia teams yet. The odds you're correct about any one person being mafia are slim enough, let alone that you'd be right on three. We can look for evidence of mafia working together when we actually have evidence of mafia.

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A Human Becoming said:

I'm taking my time to read through the posts to take notes. Lynching day one is tough so I want to feel confident in my choice.

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Sawneeks said:

Franconp is my second. He sits in the middle of the post count list but going back and reading everything he has said so far they are either A) side comments and fluff or b) repeats of info and 'me too!' posts about votes and suspicions. I'm not saying Mafia but the lack of commitment and willingness to wait on the sidelines is incredibly passive and can be an easy tactic to hide behind.

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Kalor said:

I've been reading through some posts and Rest stands out to me a lot. They haven't posted a lot and when they do, only 1 of their 4 posts was about their theorys. When they vote for Swamped they give the reason as them being too active after talking about activity being good. These aren't really good reasons as theres not a lot to work with but they stood out.

Vote: Rest

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franconp said:

Not only voting is important but it's also participating in the game and sharing your thoughts, waiting to the last moment to participe it's no good. Something like Pau's post it's what I'm looking for.

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Zippedpinhead said:

Francorp,

I agree with your assessment of goshujinsama, I think that's just new player jitters. Hopefully he can use his ability on himself and switch with someone else to save himself tonight.

It's hard to separate character actions per game against our opinions of people from previous mafia games. I know it heavily influenced one of my main assumptions in a previous game. I was right, but it could have been just as possible that the previous player had an awesome positive role.

I'm going to switch my vote, just because I can. I didn't like the most recent a human becoming post on taking his time, subscribe to the thread and post, even if you aren't ready to vote... that kind of post just screamed "I'm scum don't vote for me but I'm trying to delay/sway the game"

vote:A Human Becoming

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Rest said:

Regarding my vote for swamped, as I stated, her posting habits did fit in with the logic I saw of making sure people know who you are by posting. I felt that she was suspicious because it seemed like she took it too far; she seemed to be engaging with almost every major poster directly, which somehow stands out to me.

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CornBurrito said:

So you believe swamped is trying to play a False Hope leader game?

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A Human Becoming said:

CzarTim on multiple occasions has one or two sentence posts to lynch AbsolutBro, simply to kill someone. He seems too hellbent on it for my liking, but I'm not sure yet if I will vote for him.

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*Splinter said:

Crap, that's word for word what I said. I'll be more careful not to give people excuses.

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Pau said:

I used your wording because it's true. :/ If y'all don't believe me, you're all welcome to read my groundbreaking and extremely interesting research on subnational variation in central and local state capacity in Colombia.

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Rest said:

That's not a hard vote right now though. Crab, you look pretty aggressive, your posts feel like you're trying to manipulate the mob into being flustered, knowing people will make worse decisions if they have too many threads to follow, too many posters to think about. You confirmed that for me here:

You also deflect from kingkitty when you're questioned about your relative reticence in discussing his odd posts. You then deflected from him again without any prompting. My suspicions are high for both of you now. You're kicking up too much dust.

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kgtrep said:

Yes, but it's not really any different from listing a few candidates for our first vote. And if it turns out I had been right, that sure would be something.

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Terrabyte20xx said:

Will AbsolutBro and

VOTE:Barrylocke

Please report to the thread?

Wonder what he's been up to... Kinda quiet actually.

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Crab said:

Excellent, good. So, questions: what do you expect to gain from discussing kingkitty's situation now, as opposed to in two days? Conversely, do you think there's anything we might lose?

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Rest said:

You want to discuss my posts now, you've always had much to say Crab. Yet even now you won't talk about kingkitty. Why?

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Rest said:

Right now, we can only roll the dice. We have nothing to gain that we won't later, our potential gain being a Mafiosi kill. We have nothing to lose except an extra Town member, but this early in the game that's a risk we have to take.

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Rest said:

You want to discuss my posts now, you've always had much to say Crab. Yet even now you won't talk about kingkitty. Why?

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CornBurrito said:

I hate pointing this out, but I think that you've pretty much given away that you have whatever power you're trying to figure out. It would have been much better to just PM the person who wrote the roles and is running the game than to out yourself in this thread.

I sincerely hope you aren't Hope aligned because then we've just lost an ally with a very useful ability.



Now I am newish to Mafia. If I am correct and goshujin has the Switcher power, is that power typically held by Town or Mafia? Because we really shouldn't vote for goshujin if he is more likely to be Hope aligned based on his power.

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SalvaPot said:

Goddamit Launchpad the last time I read the thread you said the game was starting on Monday, so I decided to skip on all the fluff and the blarg spam and I decide to check now and everyone is going crazy with accusations and I missed my chance to make a joke about voting you first. Lovely.

Anyway, I am strongly Pro-No lynch on the first day, people who know me from the Animal Crossing game knows why, I believe there has to be an investigative role between hope and our chances of finding a despair player this early on the game is low low low, as low as Yamcha´s Ki. If we get a Hope aligned character on Day 1 and Dispair gets another one on Night 1, that is 2 members less that could have been useful to us.

Yes, information is nice and we totally should get a discussion going, and threatening others players is a nice way of doing it, but lets not get carried away with the bandwagons. Most roles need at least 1 day to lend some results, I am sure launchpad won´t resist adding all kinds of fun silly roles that can give Hope a fighting chance, so as always, I think patience is a virtue in mafia as much as information.

Vote: No Punishment.


Oh, and I realize I got two votes on me already, but I am not too worried about them since they are done because of my inactivity, don´t worry about, from now on I won´t shut up =P.

And if a lynch tonight is imminent, I feel like swamped and Terrabyte20xx are my first suspects for despair, I find swamped attitude in the game incredibly forced, like she is trying to hard to play as a leader for hope while getting people against each other to generate confusion, maybe she is with good intentions but I am watching you, any slip and I´ll notice.

About Terra, as cornburrito said I find it extremely suspicious how he acted about goshujinsama, seemed like a reaction vote to me. Oh, and for the record, I don´t goshujinsama is a swapper, if anything I think his question was properly formatted, he knew that his question could be answered by checking online but still decided to ask here, instead of, say, sending our moderator a pm. I find that weird. What are you up to, goshujin?

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Crab said:

Wrong. What we have to lose is more information on an extra four or five people that's being wasted covering exhausted ground. What happens when we lynch kingkitty, and you spent four days entirely focused on him, and he's Hope? You put all your informational eggs in one basket and then you have no leads. That's a risk that we definitely, definitely, do not have to take.

Day one is not about lynching the mafia. There are twenty-three of us and likely four or five mafia, our odds are not good to say the least. Day one is about setting up the conditions that allow us to lynch mafia later. That means making sure that everyone actually contributes something. For example, take Barrylocke's post just above. That is exactly what I want to see from everyone.



This is boring. I already talked about kingkitty when asked by CzarTim in post #540, and I explained why I don't want to focus on him in both prior replies to you and, before you even brought the subject up, in replies to *Splinter in #576 - which you actually quoted, so you're clearly aware of it. My answers remain the same as they did then; so I fairly clearly have talked about it.

By asking me this question, you are asking something to which you should already know the answer if you've been following the game, and therefore doing exactly what I was worried about in that you're getting so focused on one issue you'd prefer to retread old ground rather than actually, you know, find scum.

So, my turn for a question: what were you expecting to gain by asking me this?

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What happens when we lynch kingkitty, and you spent four days entirely focused on him, and he's Hope?

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Rest said:

I was expecting nothing, but I was hoping you might give the matter a little more thought, maybe look at it from a different perspective, and give us your updated insight.

I still feel that everything you've said about kingkitty is a deflection, any time you've mentioned him you've said something that could potentially benefit him, like you've tried to make him look better. Even in post 528 it seems like you ended by trying to smooth things over for him.

What bothers me is the consistency with which you've tried to diminish the impact of his posts. If it had just been 528 it would have been nothing, just an opinion, but you have continued. Until pushed, you've demurred to discuss him directly and tried to dismiss what he has been saying, encouraging people to talk about the possibilities of others, and it seems coming just shy of discouraging a lynching of kingkitty.

I will agree with you that kingkitty seems like he's flailing, but it seems to me like he's flailing as a nervous mafioso. You say you're bored by this line of discussion, and in truth I would probably just have let my vote stand without much more commentary, except that you seem to resist the idea that we should even talk about kingkitty:
You seem to want to do nothing but instill doubt that he is part of the mafia. For all your talk of exploring options and discussing people, it seems that you have quite an interest in us not discussing one particular player. Why should you have such an interest so early in the game?

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Crab said:

This post is a really, really long way to type "why don't you agree with me, Crab?". Okay, different perspective, kingkitty is Despair. He threw out a dodgy vote, and got called on it. Everyone started dogpiling him. Noticing this, he then decided to... vote for the person who had almost certainly accidentally revealed themselves as a town PR. Hmm, yes, that's certainly consistent with mafia play, what with the whole "fitting in" and "unobtrusive" elements. Indeed, you're clearly onto something here. And, I, a clear Despair player, on noticing my team mate in trouble, immediately decided to rush to his aid, given how unimportant it is that mafia players remain distant from one another, especially considering this is the first day and therefore the most important one for mafia. The sarcasm could go on.

I'm not against talking about kingkitty. I'm againt repeating stuff we've already covered. The paragraph directly above this one is repetition of stuff I've already posted. That's a waste of my time, your time, Hope's time, and makes things more difficult when we have to go back and read all this. If you actually have new questions to ask what I think about kingkitty, please do so, otherwise I have run out of the patience to talk about this.

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Rest said:

Alright then, if you don't want to talk about it then I'll limit my discussion. Your dismissive bent has been noted, however.

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Barrylocke said:

It's over half a day late thanks to work being busier that I expected and unexpectedly hanging out with a friend, but here's some thoughts I've had on recent going ons. It's roughly in most suspicious to least, and it's only the people I've been eyeing in a short period of time.

kgtrep: His volatility in targets on this first day seems like someone bouncing around trying to light fires under butts or shaking coconut trees to see what falls down. As a townie voter, I think I'd see him as townie just for sticking his neck out there so much on day one.

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Kalor said:

I was looking through the current vote count and noticed that SalvaPot had voted no punishment as well. Their reasoning is valid but it stuck out to me that people have talked more about Makais vote than SalvaPot. Of course Makai has done more to garner the attention of everyone else but some attention should be brought to SalvaPot for it even if it is a brief adknowledgement.

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kgtrep said:

Just the mafia's butts, heh. (I've never heard of that expression before.)

I questioned the alliance of *Splinter, Hagi, and Sawneeks, so that we will have information about them on Day 2 should we lynch someone else today.

*Splinter, Hagi, and Sawneeks, I do follow what the rest of us are saying about each other, so I'm not trying to be intentionally mean to you guys.


(I'm catching up with my friend tonight, so I'll check in 4, 5 hours later.)

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Crab said:

#457 is exactly the post I find particularly scummy. This is not a game about PRs. The purest form of this game doesn't have PRs at all. This is about understanding people and reading emotions and looking for tells. We get all of those as a result of people putting forward concrete statements. "I am going to wait until someone tells me what to do", which is effectively what #457 says, tells us nothing.

Look at it this way. Option 1: he is Hope. He is now a free kill. If Despair kill him, what did we learn from his death? What were Despair trying to hide from us, keep from being exposed, what opinions are they afraid of? We don't know, because he didn't commit to any statements or make judgements about any others. Despair therefore have a free target they can kill that doesn't give Hope anything more to work with.

Option 2: he is Despair. We have nothing to pin him down with. When we find other Despair players later in the game, and are looking for links or shared logic or particular voting patterns or any of the other numerous tells that reveal mafia, we will find nothing (or at least, much less) from Makai because he's not willing to commit to what can be the most dangerous stage for Despair players - the early game, when it is unclear who the future threats will be and which players will need to be sucked up to.

No Punishment is either a) very bad town play, or b) indicative of Despair. It becomes even worse in either a) or b) at the point that someone is voting No Punishment not because they don't suspect anyone, but because they (apparently) have no suspicions at all.

We now have a number of posts from a number of players which should give at least enough information to argue that, even if it is not probable any given player is Despair, some of them are at least more probable than others. I want to hear those arguments. All I hear from Makai is fluff and vacuities.

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Makai said:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=164624469&postcount=781

Here's the Day 1 vote count for Star Wars (hey, you tallied it!). Notice anything interesting? Makai, OceanicAir, and raindoc were main Hutts. Makai and raindoc ended the day with votes of No Punishment. OceanicAir didn't vote. Seems like a pattern to me - good thing nobody noticed. I remember CzarTim claiming to have made the connection, but I don't think you can call yourself Cassandra while pointing at everyone else in the room.

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Crab said:

No, don't weasel out of that. I've said I'm willing to talk if you have new questions. That's not "I don't want to talk". You are effectively admitting that you don't have any good questions and have been wasting Hope time, but are trying to pass the buck off on me. That's bad play right there. I don't think you're Despair simply because if I were Despair I'd be wary of leaning so hard on an experienced player so early on, but I do think you're barking up the wrong tree, repeatedly, and lacking in the common sense to pursue other avenues when it becomes clear this one is exhausted.

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Makai said:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=164624469&postcount=781

Here's the Day 1 vote count for Star Wars (hey, you tallied it!). Notice anything interesting? Makai, OceanicAir, and raindoc were main Hutts. Makai and raindoc ended the day with votes of No Punishment. OceanicAir didn't vote. Seems like a pattern to me - good thing nobody noticed. I remember CzarTim claiming to have made the connection, but I don't think you can call yourself Cassandra while pointing at everyone else in the room.

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Sawneeks said:

Vote: Hagi

I want to hear some thoughts on the situation. What do you think of Goshu? Kitty's weird ready-to-die attitude? Speak up!

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Crab said:

So, firstly, you've identified a set of actions in a prior game that were strongly correlated with being mafia, and you're now performing that set of actions. How does that make you look?

Secondly, you are ignoring, and have continually ignored, my main challenge for you: who do you suspect? Gives me names and reasons.

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SalvaPot said:

Makai keeps on bringing previous games when that really have nothing to do with this current game, patterns are really not a thing with just one or 2 games as it is, and also this early on the game I am sure there is no real pressure since we have nothing to go for.

The importance of this first day is that, later on, people are going to start contradicting themselves, so pay attention to that so we can sniff out the despair players.

And I just want to make sure that I still find swamped suspicious, she seems to tone down her strategy instead of defending it, as if we caught her and decided to ly down for a bit.

Maybe I am reading to much into it, but she is my prime suspect, all the others seem to be making unremarkable mistakes so far and I do see others that might be acting weird, but nothing too dramatic.

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