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Bonus Round - Is Time Running Out For Xbox?

SPDIF

Member
And Sony responded by dropping its price, bolstering its online service, rolling out PS+, and investing even more in their first party studios.

What's your point? Sony did what it had to do to make their product more appealing to more people. What is MS doing?

Well maybe we should give them a bit longer than four months to respond. After all, I'm pretty sure it took Sony longer than that to turn things around. Dropping the price in the UK is a start.
 

Synth

Member
And Sony responded by dropping its price, bolstering its online service, rolling out PS+, and investing even more in their first party studios.

What's your point? Sony did what it had to do to make their product more appealing to more people. What is MS doing?

To be fair, MS has been doing quite a lot considering the short time the console has been out. They already dropped the price slightly in the UK. They're offering either Titanfall or Forza with new console purchases. They've applied multiple OS updates addressing most of the more serious complaints.

I'm not sure what more you could really expect within a 4 month window. The actions you list from Sony sure as hell didn't happen in that sort of timeframe.
 

AngryMoth

Member
As for "get rid of the kinect" i agree with Pachter that it won't be this year. Well, it can possibly be this year, but later this year. I think his reasoning is the same as mine... because the people I talk to say "We literally cannot unbundle it, we have contracts with parts suppliers that are yearly or multi-year." Mattrick really fucked them with that device. If you do see microsoft announce a kinect-less bundle early, like at e3, keep in mind that means they are eating A TON of money. And that has to be worrying for a division that certain people would like to see sold off....
This is an interesting nugget I hadn't considered. They would probably continue to sell a lot of kinects as a standalone peripheral and as a part of premium sku's which might mitigate much of the the damage. But man, if they really can't afford to unbundle it I think they are in trouble this year, the only way I see their sales getting back on track is if they hit price parity with the. PS4. I wonder if they will try revisiting the idea of a subsidised model in some way.
 
But "cocky" Sony brought us the PS2.

sony_slide2..jpg
Next year we will say the war was over in 2015.

30 million PS4s
12 million XB1s
9 million WiiUs
 

watership

Member
And Sony responded by dropping its price, bolstering its online service, rolling out PS+, and investing even more in their first party studios.

What's your point? Sony did what it had to do to make their product more appealing to more people. What is MS doing?

The point is that they Sony changed and eventually turned things around. A secondary point is that it took Sony many years to do so. And a tertiary point is that there is a this is crazy belief that MS can't do the same. It's 4 months into this console cycle, and since the E3 reveal MS has been changing things at a far faster pace than Sony did in all the previous generation. MS changed faster than Sony did last gen, why is it so hard to believe they won't this gen, when it looks like they'll be chasing Sony? That's just not logical.
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
The X1 hasn't even launched everywhere yet...how is time running out for it? Ha ha.

That said it has a lot that needs improving if it wants a hope of me getting one in the future, many of them being hardware issues, so probably won't be till they even make a slim version, when I start looking at them more seriously. I would like it more comparable to the PS4 in terms of power, but for that it is too late, and that will just be a weapon against it all of its life.
Other than that, nothing they can really do except get good games on their system, hopefully not be shitty means, (like that "You can't launch on our system if you launched on another system first" rule), which will just mean lack of respect for them from me and I'd just feel bad giving them money to do things like that.


Muahahaha, Sony have fallen into our cunning trap. Now that they are overly confident of victory, we shall reveal our ULTIMATE WEAPON!. Launch in the Baltic regions!
 
And Sony responded by dropping its price, bolstering its online service, rolling out PS+, and investing even more in their first party studios.

What's your point? Sony did what it had to do to make their product more appealing to more people. What is MS doing?
The post was a response to the poster above me stating he doesn't remember if ps3 had doomed articles.
 
But... and this is where if I was microsoft I would start shitting myself a little bit. They aren't the "cool" console currently. The PS4 is sleeker. The PS4 is more powerful (and early adopters are making it known via social media to the more casual gamers that this is the case... something that didn't exist 10 years ago). PS+ is beloved. And the PS4 is $100 cheaper. The xbox one is a big, bulky box. The Kinect hasn't caught on (I like it far more than I thought I would... but let's be serious, the gaming public's general sentiment about it is "i don't want it."). XBLG is looking like a rip off at $10 more for less stuff than PS+.

This relates to something I suspected a while back- part of the reason why PS4 is selling so well is probably because the fact that it's so difficult to find enhances the perception that it's a better system. When XBone is $100 more and in stock everywhere while PS4 is nowhere to be found, you don't think "fuck it, I'll buy an XBone," you think "well, if the PS4 is that much more popular, it must be worth holding out for."
 

Biker19

Banned
I've been hearing this exact same statement since Kinect 1.0 launched. This exact same statement was made after the forced Kinect was made known at E3. Well? Where is the focus? Where are the games? They had a perfect window of opportunity to focus on Kinect 2.0 and prove why it was necessary but they didn't. They've NEVER, over the life of Kinect, bothered focusing on it. Why should I believe they'll start now?

Exactly. Microsoft has completely failed to convince people of why Kinect is worth the extra $100 price tag. They've never given people a reason as to why they should care about it, other than it being required for the UI of the system.

IMO, they just need to revamp the UI so that it would work with just the Xbox One controller, & offer a Kinectless SKU at $400. Why bother including Kinect alongside of the console if you're going to do nothing with it? What is the point?
 

MercuryLS

Banned
The point is that they Sony changed and eventually turned things around. A secondary point is that it took Sony many years to do so. And a tertiary point is that there is a this is crazy belief that MS can't do the same. It's 4 months into this console cycle, and since the E3 reveal MS has been changing things at a far faster pace than Sony did in all the previous generation. MS changed faster than Sony did last gen, why is it so hard to believe they won't this gen, when it looks like they'll be chasing Sony? That's just not logical.

The big difference is that Sony had strong brand equity worldwide that helped them through the first few years of the PS3's life. MS doesn't have that luxury where they are only relevant in US/UK and those two markets are quickly switching over to PS4 this gen along with all the other markets being a lock for PS4. MS could mount a comback/fight in NA/UK but even then it's quite obvious they are going to lose a lot of share this gen to Sony. Not including the Wii U I'm willing to predict a 70/30 split in Sony's favor.
 
6 million compared to 3, yep, sure are neck and neck... just ignore reality longer.

Xbox One is neck and neck with PS4 in the US. Many Sony fans are clearly agitated by the fact that Xbox One isn't bombing as hard as they wish they would. xD

X1 is here to stay. Better get used to it.
 
Xbox One is neck and neck with PS4 in the US. Many Sony fans are clearly agitated by the fact that Xbox One isn't bombing as hard as they wish they would. xD

X1 is here to stay. Better get used to it.

What? The PS4 is supply constrained in the states as well. So them having "fairly" close sales isn't the entire picture.

The Xbox 360 was successful because it sold 40+ million in the US alone. The fact that the PS4 is doing better than XB1 in America is very troubling for Microsoft since that was their home market.

The PS4 doing better in the US and worldwide means they are going to have to do something more than waiting for a 3rd party game to release.
 

Synth

Member
Xbox One is neck and neck with PS4 in the US. Many Sony fans are clearly agitated by the fact that Xbox One isn't bombing as hard as they wish they would. xD

X1 is here to stay. Better get used to it.

Even taking into account only the US... that's still not true. Even if it were true, neck and neck in the US is already a problem.
 

TimFL

Member
The point is that they Sony changed and eventually turned things around. A secondary point is that it took Sony many years to do so. And a tertiary point is that there is a this is crazy belief that MS can't do the same. It's 4 months into this console cycle, and since the E3 reveal MS has been changing things at a far faster pace than Sony did in all the previous generation. MS changed faster than Sony did last gen, why is it so hard to believe they won't this gen, when it looks like they'll be chasing Sony? That's just not logical.

The difference is that the PS3 could perform on par/better than the 360 if optimized for it. The XB1 wont perform better than the PS4 due to the power gap. I don't see this changing if they don't come out with some secret sauce DX12 that enables the extra hidden hardware. /s (sadly that's what every XB1 owner is apparently thinking, I'd actually be happy for them if it turns out true because otherwise they'll go into denial mode again)

And the cut the price argument doesn't work that easily. Last time I checked the XB1 wasn't that much cheaper to produce than the PS4 due to the custom hardware with eSRAM and the "outdated" DDR3 which will only rise in price. If I'm not mistaken the XB1 is actually more expensive to produce with the biggest price-bumper being the eSRAM.
 

foxtrot3d

Banned
This is all I got from that Bonus Round:

titanfall_pope.jpg


I swear I think Geoff has been hardwired to explode if he doesn't mention Titanfall once every two minutes.
 

Synth

Member
It's quite impressive considering X1 is $100 more expensive and it's neck and neck with PS4. Very impressive.

I guess it would be if it were true. Still though, they really needed to lead in the US and UK at least. The rest of the world was never going to be favourable to them, so getting slapped in those two markets is a cause for concern.
 

Linkenski

Banned
I'm tired of Geoff Keighley. He's so stubborn and I think he's the reason why we don't see many other enthusiastic gaming journalists hosting shows and stuff, because he's taken monopoly on everything, even VGX (yuck) and to be honest he's not that good at it... only his gumption and stubbornness keeps him relevant.

/rant :p
 
The big difference is that Sony had strong brand equity worldwide that helped them through the first few years of the PS3's life. MS doesn't have that luxury where they are only relevant in US/UK and those two markets are quickly switching over to PS4 this gen along with all the other markets being a lock for PS4. MS could mount a comback/fight in NA/UK but even then it's quite obvious they are going to lose a lot of share this gen to Sony. Not including the Wii U I'm willing to predict a 70/30 split in Sony's favor.

Yeah, pretty much- Sony thought that they could get away with their mistakes on the PS3 based on the strength of the brand, and to an extent, they were right- brand power just kept it healthy enough to be able to fix said mistakes and recover, rather than enabling them to win in spite of them. MS isn't coming into this generation off of two consecutive blowouts, so their margin for error is smaller.
 
Bonus Round need to find a better trend predictor. Claiming Twitch will be popular for the selfie obsessed totally misses out on what has happened in the online space with streaming games and the rise of global-local communities.
 

J-Rzez

Member
Kinect is dead weight. I'm sure that MS has been looking into ways to showcase Kinect as a "must have" item for years now. I'm sure they've had devs do the same. Unfortunately for MS, Kinect just does not have any "must have" capacity. It added too much cost into the unit where other parts, the more important parts, could have seen that overhead go into. It really put them in an awful position price wise, and mindshare wise. They can't just lop off $100 and call it a day. It would be at the price point the PS4 is at now, and still possess known-lesser hardware. Sony could sit comfortably without a price drop knowing this, or if they feel like they want to twist the dagger, drop their price even $50. Out of the 3, Sony is easily the master of hardware revisions to boot.

Worst part for MS is that Sony hasn't even pulled their ace yet, their first party studios. MS really gave Sony an opportunity here, and that's at E3 Sony can come out showing off what their main studios are working on and bury MS this gen.

Due to MS's decisions, I don't believe there's a comeback opportunity like Sony had last gen.
 

neojubei

Will drop pants for Sony.
Actually I said, "I don't remember the ps3 having this many doomed articles so early in it's life cycle." Which is quite a bit different.

The ps3 had more doom articles than the xbone. There is probably an archived gaf thread about it.
 

bishoptl

Banstick Emeritus
The same reason why Wii U owners are paying a premium. They are offering something included with every purchase the competitors are not.
...and how is that value proposition working out for them? Probably not the comparison you want to make if you're looking for successful examples.

In both cases, consumers are being offered something that by and large isn't needed, isn't seen as worth the proposed value, and are acting accordingly - moving en masse to the competitor that isn't wasting time with unnecessary gimmickry. Metrics are bearing this out, there is no argument to be had with the numbers. Either MS bites the bullet and removes it, or some sort of market-changing experience is delivered that magically gets everybody on board with Kinect, successfully changing the narrative. I know where I'd place my bet.

First of all, that's a terrible analogy since in today's market, a camera is considered basic functionality for a cellphone. Second of all, do you have any idea how an Xbox One works? If you remove the Xbox One, the Xbox One still functions. It'll turn on. You can still navigate the UI. You'll still be able to play games not specifically designed to utilize the Kinect. As you say, its basic functions will still work at the same quality as the competition.
No, and that's been proven time and time again since both machines have been available for direct comparison. Spending an extra $100 for a camera I don't want, that provides no benefit to my games, and is guaranteed to receive the majority of multiplatform titles in a weaker state than the competition makes no sense. Remove the camera, drop the price and I'll buy one tomorrow for Killer Instinct, the main title that I'm missing right now by not owning an Xbone.
 

see5harp

Member
And Sony responded by dropping its price, bolstering its online service, rolling out PS+, and investing even more in their first party studios.

What's your point? Sony did what it had to do to make their product more appealing to more people. What is MS doing?

You couldn't even access the XMB while in game for the longest time. I don't think you are remembering correctly.
 
Xbox One is neck and neck with PS4 in the US. Many Sony fans are clearly agitated by the fact that Xbox One isn't bombing as hard as they wish they would. xD

X1 is here to stay. Better get used to it.
I find it odd how the media narrative of "Xbox 360 won!" has shifted. First it was simply raw numbers. Then it was "it's the highest-selling HD console. Wii doesn't count lol". Then it was "higher attach rates" and "higher NPD numbers" and lastly the narrative shifted to something like this:

Well, 360 didn't "win" by selling the most, but it certainly won by stealing marketshare from Sony. Look at dat marketshare! All that marketshare

And now that the US/UK marketshare is being gobbled up by PS4, you're content to brag "X1 is keeping neck-and-neck in USA" as if that's a victory? 360 sold nearly double what the PS3 did last gen in the USA. Dat marketshare, indeed.
 
The point is that they Sony changed and eventually turned things around. A secondary point is that it took Sony many years to do so. And a tertiary point is that there is a this is crazy belief that MS can't do the same. It's 4 months into this console cycle, and since the E3 reveal MS has been changing things at a far faster pace than Sony did in all the previous generation. MS changed faster than Sony did last gen, why is it so hard to believe they won't this gen, when it looks like they'll be chasing Sony? That's just not logical.

The all-too-common notion of "Sony turned around the PS3. Why can't Microsoft turn around the X1?" is a great example of false equivalency. Would you apply the same logic to Nintendo? After all, Sony turned around the PS3. Why can't Nintendo turn the Wii-U into the market leader? It's silly.

The reality is that we've seen how Microsoft tries to "turn things around". Playstation was market leader for 2 gens in a row, and we hadn't yet seen how Playstation would be able to turn things around from a weaker position.

On the other hand, there are plenty of examples of Microsoft - whether within the Xbox brand or without - completely failing to "turn things around". When Microsoft tries to "turn things around" we get consoles launched early to the peril of their reliability. We get a focus on the Wii audience while abandoning the core audience that supported you in the first place.

So, when that rhetorical question is posed: Sony turned around the PS3, why can't Microsoft turn around the X1? Well, my answer would be: because Sony has proven themselves already. Microsoft hasn't.
 
Sony recovered the PS3 through aggressive price drops and feature removal, investing in first party games, and leveraging non-US/UK global markets. It also helped that the PS3 was at least on par graphically with 360 when coded for properly. It's questionable whether MS can utilize any of those advantages at least to the extent Sony did.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
Sony recovered the PS3 through aggressive price drops and feature removal, investing in first party games, and leveraging non-US/UK global markets. It also helped that the PS3 was at least on par graphically with 360 when coded for properly. It's questionable whether MS can utilize any of those advantages at least to the extent Sony did.

It also helped that 9 mil of consoles was sold in Japan, 8mil more than X360. In the west, PS3 lost handily in US and UK, but those 8mil additional consoles in Japan greatly helped to erase that lead. Although, western 3rd parties never saw great benefits from those Japanese consoles...

This time PS4 will will everywhere, except maybe in US where MS will try like mad to at least achieve 50/50 install base over the next couple of years.
 
Bonus Round need to find a better trend predictor. Claiming Twitch will be popular for the selfie obsessed totally misses out on what has happened in the online space with streaming games and the rise of global-local communities.

I think Pacter's logic on selfies/streaming is utter nonsense

People are not buying the PS4 for streaming in my opinion. They are buying the PS4 for whatever reason then once they have the PS4 they look at the Playstation Live tab and see everyone else streaming and then want the camera so they can stream. It is not a primary motivation to get the console but is to get the camera.

MS's problem is that the camera is bundled in with the console but as I mentioned streaming is likely only big once people get their consoles [PS4] and see others streaming. How much of the mass market is going to be watching twitch on a regular basis and decide "Hey look at that I can stream from a PS4/XB1 let's go buy one"?

No it's a secondary effect facilitated by the Playstation Live tab, it is not the other way around
 
Personally I would predict Fall 2014 leading into the release of Halo for a price cut proper, until then we will continue to see bundled content to "increase the value" of the existing content.

While possible I see it as highly unlikely simply because bundling games in with a console are far far less effective to boost sales than an equivalent price cut.

Consumers will still see a $500 price tag on the console even if the $100 worth of extra content appeals to them. A $100 price cut appeals to everyone.

If MS doesn't drop price this year at $50 if not $100 I think by the end of the year, the XB1 will be in a far more dire sales position. They absolutely need to drop price.
 

Biker19

Banned
It also helped that 9 mil of consoles was sold in Japan, 8mil more than X360. In the west, PS3 lost handily in US and UK, but those 8mil additional consoles in Japan greatly helped to erase that lead. Although, western 3rd parties never saw great benefits from those Japanese consoles...

This time PS4 will will everywhere, except maybe in US where MS will try like mad to at least achieve 50/50 install base over the next couple of years.

Agreed. Even if Xbox One ties with PS4 in sales in the U.S., it wouldn't exactly be a victory for Microsoft like BigDaddyFatSack thinks, especially when PS4 will most likely outsell Xbox One outside of the U.S.
 

Mandoric

Banned
While possible I see it as highly unlikely simply because bundling games in with a console are far far less effective to boost sales than an equivalent price cut.

The appeal of bundling in this case seems to be that:
a) you can go back up afterward if it pushes you over critical mass
b) you can "hide" payments - we've discussed how much EA may have gotten paid, but what if EA got (say) a licensing fee waiver on their next 20m-25m units rather than $200m cash? Or what if they just agreed to take $75m a year rather than $200m up front?

I'd imagine that those appeal to an MS who cruised to victory in the US based on those first 5m X360 buyers, and who have to show good results this year to placate investors.

(bundling older games, bundling DLCfests, and so on all have different appeals.)
 
The appeal of bundling in this case seems to be that:
a) you can go back up afterward if it pushes you over critical mass
b) you can "hide" payments - we've discussed how much EA may have gotten paid, but what if EA got (say) a licensing fee waiver on their next 20m-25m units rather than $200m cash? Or what if they just agreed to take $75m a year rather than $200m up front?

I'd imagine that those appeal to an MS who cruised to victory in the US based on those first 5m X360 buyers, and who have to show good results this year to placate investors.

(bundling older games, bundling DLCfests, and so on all have different appeals.)

I was solely reflecting on bundling in games versus cutting price from a consumer perspective.

Obviously there are reasons from a business perspective why MS values doing a bundle now instead of a price cut otherwise they wouldn't
 

Jomjom

Banned
Actually I said, "I don't remember the ps3 having this many doomed articles so early in it's life cycle." Which is quite a bit different.

Your memory is off about this then. The press in general was way more negative on the PS3 than the Xbone. If anything, the majority of articles have been to downplay everything and offer every benefit of the doubt to the Xbone so far.
 

Mandoric

Banned
The point is that they Sony changed and eventually turned things around. A secondary point is that it took Sony many years to do so. And a tertiary point is that there is a this is crazy belief that MS can't do the same. It's 4 months into this console cycle, and since the E3 reveal MS has been changing things at a far faster pace than Sony did in all the previous generation. MS changed faster than Sony did last gen, why is it so hard to believe they won't this gen, when it looks like they'll be chasing Sony? That's just not logical.

Sony never really "turned it around". US sales have been on a roughly steady pace of 4m less than 360 at launch + around 1m less a year, and if anything the gap -widened- post-2010. The catchup was entirely due to higher sales in Japan, Europe, and smaller territories, and their sales have always been higher in those territories.

MS is unlikely to be able to replicate this performance, as they've designed a box with key USPs that will never work there and in many cases decided it's not worth their money to launch there yet.

Your memory is off about this then. The press in general was way more negative on the PS3 than the Xbone. If anything, the majority of articles have been to downplay everything and offer every benefit of the doubt to the Xbone so far.

The enthusiast press was, for a variety of reasons. (End of overall Japan boom, ability of MS and Western pubs to push a Famitsu-style buddy system, MS's smart cooperation with PC devs offering guys who had seen everything on console "new" experiences.) Analysts tended to produce hilariously optimistic outcomes for Sony.

Though it is worth noting that most of the "hilariously" optimistic ideas that GAF took the piss out of tended to be either "Sony will top out at 100m, X360 will top out at 80m, and Wii will bomb" or "Sony will top out at 100m, Wii will top out at 80m, and X360 will bomb"; apart from the bomba they're far closer in retrospect than we expected them to be.
 

jett

D-Member
Your memory is off about this then. The press in general was way more negative on the PS3 than the Xbone. If anything, the majority of articles have been to downplay everything and offer every benefit of the doubt to the Xbone so far.

Indeed.

People that don't remember how crazy biased the media was for the xbox and against the PS3 just weren't around, or didn't watch The 1UP Show. :p The Xbone is getting treated with an extremely soft touch in comparison.
 

Melchiah

Member
I don't think it would be someone like Google, or Samsung, I actually think it'd be a publisher acquisition, someone like EA, just buying it for the studios and IP.

EA console sounds actually worse than the originally intended XB1 with DRM. Just imagine all the nickle & diming they could do if they had the whole platform under control.
 
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