Coulomb_Barrier
Member
[PS4] 240k
[PS3] 45k
[PSV] 10k
[XB1] 140k
[360] 50k
[WIU] 75k
[3DS] 85k
[PS3] 45k
[PSV] 10k
[XB1] 140k
[360] 50k
[WIU] 75k
[3DS] 85k
-
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July 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Correct. All 162 predictors in May had PS4 > XB1. April had 2 people predict XB1 > PS4.
RyanPierre
Member
This is my first time participating, should be fun to see how far off I am.
[360] 52K
[3DS] 128K
[PS3] 35K
[PS4] 212K
[WIU] 96K
[XB1] 138K
I have no idea what to make of the Vita - it's higher than the Wii U on Amazon for July, but I'm assuming that's inflated because it's hard to find elsewhere. Seems like it's basically going to be based on whatever stock was available, which is very difficult to guess.
[PSV] 18K
[360] 52K
[3DS] 128K
[PS3] 35K
[PS4] 212K
[WIU] 96K
[XB1] 138K
I have no idea what to make of the Vita - it's higher than the Wii U on Amazon for July, but I'm assuming that's inflated because it's hard to find elsewhere. Seems like it's basically going to be based on whatever stock was available, which is very difficult to guess.
[PSV] 18K
As a reminder, Amazon doesn't sell Wii Us, so any ranking for the system will be from third-party sellers. Makes Amazon not reliable even just for positioning when it comes to the Nintendo systems.
Gbpackers31
Member
[360] 47k
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 35k
[PS4] 225k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 140k
I don't have a good feeling about these this month for some reason...
[3DS] 110k
[PS3] 35k
[PS4] 225k
[WIU] 85k
[XB1] 140k
I don't have a good feeling about these this month for some reason...
PoorChoices
Member
PS4 - 175,000
XB1 - 65,000
3DS - 125,000
Wii U - 75,000 ( I want to believe the hype is sticking around)
360 - 60,000
PS3 - 45,000
XB1 - 65,000
3DS - 125,000
Wii U - 75,000 ( I want to believe the hype is sticking around)
360 - 60,000
PS3 - 45,000
RyanPierre
Member
Huh, I had no idea. I don't mean to derail the thread, but is there more information about why that's the case? They don't sell 3DS systems directly either?
http://kotaku.com/5944662/something...ntendo-and-amazon-but-neither-side-is-talking
http://www.nintendolife.com/news/2013/04/amazon_promoting_rival_consoles_on_nintendo_product_pages
There's been the occasional NeoGAF thread on it, too.
SwiftDeath
Member
Rumor is that Amazon was quite upset about how Nintendo was treating them as a distributor
Whether or not that is accurate I have no idea but there does seem to be bad blood between the two for some reason
SwiftDeath
Member
This is a NPD thread so Donny clearly just means Amazon US
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
[PSV] 10K
[3DS] 35K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 235K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 110K
[360] 80K
thirst is real for the vita
[3DS] 35K
[PS3] 60K
[PS4] 235K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 110K
[360] 80K
thirst is real for the vita
bananafactory
Banned
Sorry I thought NPD was North America. Didn't know my canadian purchases don't count.
Anyways:
[360] 35k
[3DS] 90k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 295k
[WIU] 50k
[XB1] 90k
SwiftDeath
Member
That's an honest mistake as it's confusing
The 3rd party tracking group known as NPD does actually track both US and Canada sales of consoles and retail games [among many other countries] but this thread and the NPD thread this Thursday is only in relation to US sales as we don't get any Canadian leaks as of late
Oddly only US systems on .com site. Every other version of Amazon sells Nintendo systems. So if it's bad blood, it's certainly weird how it's only limited to US branch of Amazon/etc.
Yeah, probably should've mentioned it was just a U.S. thing, which is why it's relevant in these threads. Thanks for clarifying, SwiftDeath!
Yeah, I imagine that, especially the surprise launch of Saturn on may 1995. Number must be very low.
travisbickle
Member
[360] 45k
[3DS] 125k
[PS3] 36k
[PS4] 208k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 110k
[3DS] 125k
[PS3] 36k
[PS4] 208k
[WIU] 90k
[XB1] 110k
SwiftDeath
Member
I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's right. MS has really put in work to improve virtually everything and take losses by giving deals and promotions pretty much on a weekly basis. I feel like there hasn't been a single week where someone who wanted a Xbone couldn't have gotten a little something added here or a discount there to pick one up.
With the impending release of Destiny, I'm guessing a lot of the 360 guys who were always looking to carry over their gamertags and achievements probably had their plans accelerated if they weren't going to pick up an Xbone up this early previously.
[360] 70k
[3DS] 105k
[PS3] 25k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 100k
[XB1] 199k
SwiftDeath
Member
Hmm but it's relative to last month's performance. Was there a significantly lesser amount of deals on XB1's during June than there was during July?
And more importantly June numbers were clearly elevated above the normal demand due to the early kinectless SKU announcement way back on May 13th unless there is some other explanation for May's anemic results for the system?
Mind you it's possible I just don't find it particularly likely
Really odd given the reports we got that the sales boost was short lived. Wouldn't surprise me much if sales are uncannily close to before the price cut announcement.
I feel like I saw more deals in July than in June because June had the big Kinect-less announcement. While I know it's not really a pricedrop, retailers didn't really have promotions in addition to this perceived pricedrop.
Like I said with Destiny coming out, I feel like more people likely picked a Xbone up to prepare to play with their friends. I think the beta definitely sold some Xbones - not to mention the good news about parity with the PS4 might have also instilled some confidence in the console and prompted some purchases. Additionally those roughly 200k new owners, which is one of the best months Xbone has had in a while, could also have influenced a lot of their friends.
Lastly, since last month was a five week month, Xbone just needs to sell about the same amount or even slightly less and it would still be doing better on a weekly average basis. Sales tend to trend up anyway as we get closer and closer to the holidays.
SwiftDeath
Member
I don't keep that close an eye on XB1 deals as late but you could be right. I haven't though noticed a significant increase but I could clearly just be missing them
I'm not quite ready to believe a large contingent of 360 owners who had yet to switch to XB1 but had played the Destiny Beta would buy the console over a month early in anticipation for it. I mean I'm sure someone somewhere did just that but again it's about more significant market behavior and that doesn't sound too likely to me.
I'd think they'd simply wait until the game came out unless the deals at present were really that compelling.
Eh MS sold 311,000 units in March. Easily it's best month in 2014 and then unceremoniously dropped to 115,000 in April. That was 5 weeks versus 4 weeks but even on a weekly basis, it went from 62.2k a week to 28.75k a week. And while there were some better deals that ended around the end of march or the first week of april that really doesn't show much in the way of new owners convincing their friends en masse to me.
July isn't a particularly stronger month than June
See MPL90's post on the matter
Obviously the second group "Weekly Weeks Changes" is more relevant and actually historically shows a decline from June to July best I can tell
XB1 sold 197,000 in June or about 39.4k a week
Pachter's prediction of 165k would be about 41.25k a week.
Which may not seem that much of an increase but again it's hard to consider June's XB1 performance without assuming some May sales had been rolled into it thus it was higher than the natural baseline for the system at the present prices
Jimmyfenix
Member
July and August will be quiet. September will be march part 2 In terms of drama.
SwiftDeath
Member
No idea for PS4 dropoff as PS4 seems to have sold on its mindshare in June and not much more unless perhaps a belated WD effect?
For XB1 I would assume some dropoff from it's June weekly sales due to the kinectless SKU being announced May 13th and May sales being 77k [or 33% down on a weekly basis from April] so it's likely any informed consumer in May after the 13th who wanted to buy an XB1 but didn't care for kinect would most likely wait until June 9th to buy the kinectless SKU thus raising June sales with belated May sales. Also leading to XB1 being down on a weekly basis from June to July as we start to see the true demand for the kinectless SKU
PS You should make predictions for all 6 systems. Donny's policy is to set your predictions for any system you don't specify to 0 because he needs predictions for every system for the rankings
SDCowboy
Member
I think August is going to be interesting. Going by Amazon (yeah I know), the PS4 is now moved back up to the #5 spot (#6 overall for the month currently). I think TLOU may legitimately be a serlous console seller. Hopefully all three consoles will be up still for August.
SDCowboy
Member
It is important to look at weekly sales when comparing 5 and 4 week months. People sometimes have gut feelings that cause them to make various predictions. The PS4 was stable for a long time causing people to predict a decline in June (and many earlier months) when sales actually grew due to Destiny beta. The poor sales of XB1 when the price cut was announced seems to have made many pessimistic. Last month sales were also inflated by the launch which we've heard from retailers causes a short bump in sales. I did see WiiU sales last month not reflecting what we had heard from retailers. We (at least I read) that regular bundles didn't sell any better than before while the MK8 bundle sold out quickly, but shipments were too small. When the numbers leaked it turned out most of the WiiU sales came from the regular bundles and they sold much better than before MK8. It was even more confusing when May saw a small (and seemingly concentrated, sales declined just before it launched) boost and Japan saw an even smaller boost.
Last month's predictions also weren't very accurate so don't take the consensus as fact
spatenfloot
Member
Looks like this month's winner will be determined by WiiU and 3ds predictions.
SwiftDeath
Member
I imagine the XB1 and Wii U predictions will be far more variable than the 3DS ones
Although I don't believe the Wii U is counted for points so that would only help with winning units and order placement points
aspiegamer
Member
[360] 52K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 38K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 66K
[XB1] 93K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 38K
[PS4] 218K
[WIU] 66K
[XB1] 93K
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
While it's purely an hourly chart, 3 Wii U games are actually in the top 20 on Amazon US. Is this a first?
Smash Bros. Wii U bundle (GC adapter one) - #5
Mario Kart 8 - #11
Hyrule Warriors - #16 (yay for preorder bonuses?)
Smash Bros. Wii U bundle (GC adapter one) - #5
Mario Kart 8 - #11
Hyrule Warriors - #16 (yay for preorder bonuses?)
SwiftDeath
Member
I doubt MS's move to grab TR as a timed exclusive or whatever is being motivated by one month of sales in the US being lower than they anticipated.
I do think right around 135k is the tops for XB1 sales this month which is ~14% decrease from June's weekly average.
SwiftDeath
Member
I will try I suppose. I should note what follows is random conjecture and should not be taken too much at face value
So anyways we have the following
Worldwide:
US PS4 Sales:
- 2014 YTD = 1600k
- Sales from April 6th to July 5th = 665k
- Sales from March 2nd to April 5th in the US = 371k
We are trying to solve for US sales in July [from July 5th to August 2nd]
For historical comparison, while PS4 sold 371k in the US from March 2nd to April 5th, PS4 sold 1M WW thus the US represented ~37.1% of PS4's WW sales
Thus with 3M PS4's sold WW from April 6th to August 10th and assuming the same US/WW ratio, one would assume 1.113M PS4's sold in the US between April 6th to August 10th
If the US accounted for 35% of the sales it would mean 1.05M sold in the US in that time period, if 40% it would refer to 1.2M
So assuming it's around 1.113M sold in that period and taking away what we know [665k from April 6th to July 5th] then ~448k PS4's sold in the US from July 6th to August 10th
Adjusting for the extra week of August [(4/5)*448] = 358k sold from July 6th to August 3rd in the US
Which is crazy high....
I'm gonna go with the PS4 has started to sell quite a bit better in the ROTW compared to the US versus previous time periods for comparisons and call my calculation compromised based on that
Although it's interesting that even if one assumes US represents 35% of the PS4's WW sales now [a decrease of 2%] that would suggest 308k for the July NPD time period
My prediction for PS4 this month is around 209k, for that to be accurate would represent US|WW PS4 sales ratio to have decreased from ~37% as of April 6th to ~31% as of August 10th
Perhaps PS4 did a bit better this month in the US than I realized, maybe 230k - 250k :\
/End incoherent ramblings
Chobel
Member
Thanks for this, +300k sure looks high, heck 250k is also high. I'll stick to my prediction of 204K, ROTW getting bigger share of sales is most likely the reason PS4 sales.