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July 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12th

donny2112

Member
Apr 18, 2005
18,797
1
0
ROTW getting bigger share of sales is most likely the reason PS4 sales.
Japan's % would've gone down, so it's basically relying on an increase in EU/UK + AUS + Canada. However if U.S. sales really are much higher than anticipated, then maybe it was people waiting to see what move Microsoft would make, not being impressed by it, and going to PS4 instead (+ Destiny word of mouth, etc.).
 

ethomaz

I can't stay out of MS threads because Phil is pretty
Mar 19, 2013
32,847
19,639
1,125
38
Brazil
My PS4 prediction seems low but I will hold it for the fun.
 

Ty4on

Member
Jun 22, 2011
11,588
0
690
Norway
Japan's % would've gone down, so it's basically relying on an increase in EU/UK + AUS + Canada. However if U.S. sales really are much higher than anticipated, then maybe it was people waiting to see what move Microsoft would make, not being impressed by it, and going to PS4 instead (+ Destiny word of mouth, etc.).
A quick look seemed to show Japanese sales accounting for 13% of PS4 sales between 6 and 7 million and 5% between 7 and 10 million.
LTD sales for the PS4 in Media Create were 374.839 March 2nd, 506.739 April 6th and 653.377 August 3rd and I added 5k for August 10th as that has been the weekly sales for some time now.

Will be interesting. Maybe TLoU did really well. Would be hilarious if it actually sold 358k :p
 

shinra-bansho

Member
Nov 13, 2011
16,595
0
0
I think Japanese LTD has remained around the 6-7% mark of global LTD, it's more Europe/Other increasing I think at US/NA expense in terms of share.
----

So I thought this would be the best place to discuss, and although it may be premature given July numbers could always surprise, but what are people's thoughts on the XBO reaching price parity, but being as yet unable to reach anything close to unit sales parity.

On a basic level, obviously there's a lot more to value than just dollar price, and they obviously haven't reached value parity. The question is though, why? Why is a $399 PS4 in consumer minds a more compelling value proposition than a $399 XBO?

They'll ultimately share most of their library, despite that each of them are shelling out for this or that to provide some degree of product differentiation. Their big titles largely don't come for a while though.
Is it that we're already seeing the impact of network effects from early adopters creating a bandwagon? "All my friends have a PS4."
Is there still a negative sentiment and the need to rebuild consumer trust, if that was indeed eroded by the DRM shenanigans?

My gut is telling me it's that bandwagon starting to form, but it just seems so soon for that sort of effect to take hold.
 

hepburn3d

Member
Mar 11, 2014
1,079
0
0
UK
www.hepburn3d.com
I think Japanese LTD has remained around the 6-7% mark of global LTD, it's more Europe/Other increasing I think at US/NA expense in terms of share.
----

So I thought this would be the best place to discuss, and although it may be premature given July numbers could always surprise, but what are people's thoughts on the XBO reaching price parity, but being as yet unable to reach anything close to unit sales parity.

On a basic level, obviously there's a lot more to value than just dollar price, and they obviously haven't reached value parity. The question is though, why? Why is a $399 PS4 in consumer minds a more compelling value proposition than a $399 XBO?

They'll ultimately share most of their library, despite that each of them are shelling out for this or that to provide some degree of product differentiation. Their big titles largely don't come for a while though.
Is it that we're already seeing the impact of network effects from early adopters creating a bandwagon? "All my friends have a PS4."
Is there still a negative sentiment and the need to rebuild consumer trust, if that was indeed eroded by the DRM shenanigans?

My gut is telling me it's that bandwagon starting to form, but it just seems so soon for that sort of effect to take hold.
Speaking as someone who hasn't got either yet, owned both last gen and has very few online friends (some how I have lots of non gamer friends), it comes down to just games for me. Nothing else. The other things are small factors that would sway me if they had the exact same libraries.

I'd be interested in seeing a survey (on a large scale) of what made me people choose their systems. If I had one right now, it would be for the games on that system.
 

Ty4on

Member
Jun 22, 2011
11,588
0
690
Norway
So I thought this would be the best place to discuss, and although it may be premature given July numbers could always surprise, but what are people's thoughts on the XBO reaching price parity, but being as yet unable to reach anything close to unit sales parity.

On a basic level, obviously there's a lot more to value than just dollar price, and they obviously haven't reached value parity. The question is though, why? Why is a $399 PS4 in consumer minds a more compelling value proposition than a $399 XBO?

They'll ultimately share most of their library, despite that each of them are shelling out for this or that to provide some degree of product differentiation. Their big titles largely don't come for a while though.
Is it that we're already seeing the impact of network effects from early adopters creating a bandwagon? "All my friends have a PS4."
Is there still a negative sentiment and the need to rebuild consumer trust, if that was indeed eroded by the DRM shenanigans?

My gut is telling me it's that bandwagon starting to form, but it just seems so soon for that sort of effect to take hold.
Yeah, image problem.

Microsoft made a console designed less for games that was less powerful and they had abandoned hardcore gamers for some time on the 360. They went for a market that didn't exist. With third party games being so important I don't see the XOne ever catching up.
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
Since NeoGAF has been down most of today, going to extend the deadline one more day.

New Prediction Deadline: 8 p.m. EDT, Wednesday, August 13th since NeoGAF was down most of Tuesday, August 12..
FYI

Time left to change predictions



Time left until NPD PR is usually released

 

Kysen

Member
Oct 6, 2012
5,397
1
0
As far as I'm concerned the other platforms are dead
[3DS] 85K
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 52K
[XB1] 110K
 

spatenfloot

Member
Jun 7, 2013
3,399
0
0
I think Japanese LTD has remained around the 6-7% mark of global LTD, it's more Europe/Other increasing I think at US/NA expense in terms of share.
----

So I thought this would be the best place to discuss, and although it may be premature given July numbers could always surprise, but what are people's thoughts on the XBO reaching price parity, but being as yet unable to reach anything close to unit sales parity.

On a basic level, obviously there's a lot more to value than just dollar price, and they obviously haven't reached value parity. The question is though, why? Why is a $399 PS4 in consumer minds a more compelling value proposition than a $399 XBO?

They'll ultimately share most of their library, despite that each of them are shelling out for this or that to provide some degree of product differentiation. Their big titles largely don't come for a while though.
Is it that we're already seeing the impact of network effects from early adopters creating a bandwagon? "All my friends have a PS4."
Is there still a negative sentiment and the need to rebuild consumer trust, if that was indeed eroded by the DRM shenanigans?

My gut is telling me it's that bandwagon starting to form, but it just seems so soon for that sort of effect to take hold.
I think it has to go below the PS4 price because it already has an entrenched perception of weakness. People figure it will get cheaper and have better bundles later as Microsoft tries to regain market share.
 

Kriken

Member
Dec 7, 2013
10,244
1
0
Wasn't planning on doing this, but what they heck

[360] 50K
[3DS] 115K
[PS3] 30K
[PS4] 200K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 110K
 

SwiftDeath

Member
May 31, 2013
23,627
0
0
So I thought this would be the best place to discuss, and although it may be premature given July numbers could always surprise, but what are people's thoughts on the XBO reaching price parity, but being as yet unable to reach anything close to unit sales parity.

On a basic level, obviously there's a lot more to value than just dollar price, and they obviously haven't reached value parity. The question is though, why? Why is a $399 PS4 in consumer minds a more compelling value proposition than a $399 XBO?

They'll ultimately share most of their library, despite that each of them are shelling out for this or that to provide some degree of product differentiation. Their big titles largely don't come for a while though.
Is it that we're already seeing the impact of network effects from early adopters creating a bandwagon? "All my friends have a PS4."
Is there still a negative sentiment and the need to rebuild consumer trust, if that was indeed eroded by the DRM shenanigans?

My gut is telling me it's that bandwagon starting to form, but it just seems so soon for that sort of effect to take hold.
There appears to be a general mindshare problem at play for the XB1. To my eyes it appears that the general market views the PS4 as the one to get. Now the reasoning for that belief is of course debatable. I'm sure there is some small demographic of consumers who are aware of the general notion that the PS4 is a stronger console but I'm not convinced that explains the full effect of what we're seeing. It is probably some combination of a early bandwagon/snowball effect as well MS still suffering lesser mindshare from the previous year combined with savvy co-marketing from Sony around Watch Dogs and Destiny I think.
 

heidern

Junior Member
Jun 7, 2004
2,288
0
1,375
On a basic level, obviously there's a lot more to value than just dollar price, and they obviously haven't reached value parity. The question is though, why? Why is a $399 PS4 in consumer minds a more compelling value proposition than a $399 XBOX?
Do you have annual US sales for PS2 and X360? Even if the 360 lifetime was high the Xbox branding may never have been as big as the Playstation brand. So this may be just Sony successfully hitting their audience that still has loyalty to them. Having a more powerful box would make a switch back to Sony a no brainer, especially with the DRM fiasco and all the negative publicity.

Kinect may also have padded the X360 meaning it was partially a bubble that burst rather than all to do with the battle against Sony.

Oh, and Sony being more Japan centric may have a portion of their audience less susceptible to giving up consoles for smart devices perhaps.
 

Tripon

Member
May 24, 2013
23,025
0
770
[360] 60,000
[3DS] 150,000
[PS3] 35,000
[PS4] 225,000
[WIU] 115,000
[XB1] 175,000
[PSV] 15,000
 

SDCowboy

Member
Feb 23, 2014
9,157
63
0
I'm not expecting anything crazy. Guess that may make it insanely exciting if that's what we get.
I think it's going to be plenty exciting. Will the Xbone sales increase continue? Will TLOUR help the PS4 sales at all for the short time it was out?
 

allan-bh

Member
May 16, 2006
6,562
1
1,290
September will be the next big month to watch.

August I have some curious about what Madden NFL 15 Xbox One Bundle could do.
 

Monty Oliver

Banned
Jul 29, 2014
121
0
0
Looks like I missed it.

All I know is that according to my report, Xbox sold more consoles than everyone else.

PSvita is horrendously low.
 

Samyy

Member
May 10, 2011
12,552
0
0
Looks like I missed it.

All I know is that according to my report, Xbox sold more consoles than everyone else.

PSvita is horrendously low.
Do you mean "Xbox family" or Xbox One?
Obviously barely any Vitas were sold theres no stock.