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Pachter Predicts: Xbox One outsold PS4 in September (dance, you puppets)

Jack cw

Member
People forget how long it took for PS3 to get traction after their bad initial approach, MS better hold on the effects of a bad approach takes years to wear off.

PS3 also had Europe, Japan and other parts in Asia and SA that made up for the rather weak performance in NA and UK. A backup xbone simply have not as its outsold pretty badly in those territories.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
Several months? Was it is just one month (Sept, thanks to GTA) after years of getting beat.

And after MS had virtually given up on supporting the 360 for like three years.

Does anyone seriously think that Sony will do the same with PS4 when the company's financial wellbeing depends on it?
 
Wrong wrong wrong, debunked literally hundreds of times. The PS3 was always selling better than the 360 in several regions worldwide last generation, and by the end they were able to shift the ration in regions that they weren't selling as well as 360 (the UK and US) in order to catch up worldwide overall.

This generation Xbone is selling worse everywhere.

Unless the PS4 is literally discontinued there is nothing that MS can do to catch up.

Bullshit the Playstation 3 Phat was getting absolutely destroyed. Sony had to literally relaunch the brand (right down to software boxart redesign) and make a Slim console before the tide started to shift and even then it took them years. All you people forget the phat years out of mere convenience. The 360 had a strong start and a weak finish, the PS3 had a weak start and a strong finish. Headstarts mean nothing. The Dreamcast and Wii both prove this. Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.
 

Joeki11a

Banned
Wrong wrong wrong, debunked literally hundreds of times. The PS3 was always selling better than the 360 in several regions worldwide last generation, and by the end they were able to shift the ration in regions that they weren't selling as well as 360 (the UK and US) in order to catch up worldwide overall.

This generation Xbone is selling worse everywhere.

Unless the PS4 is literally discontinued there is nothing that MS can do to catch up.

Pretty much as long as Sony is easily making these boxes, MS has zero chance and 3rd party games will always continue to sell best on PS4 the gap its already there to make that happen instantly.
 
There should really be a "In the US" on the thread title.

I almost laughed myself to death until I saw that he was talking about US numbers. Which doesn't seem so impossible.

i'd think it'd be understood by now that patcher, like ms, only really cares about the u.s. - the rest of the world is irrelevant to both...
 

BumRush

Member
I wouldn't call which console will sell more overall so early, look at how much legwork the PS3 has done in these few years and last I checked both the 360 and PS3 were at about 70-80 million all time sales. The Xbox one is so far doing legwork as well and all it take is the right mood.

Again man...how is MS doing more legwork? Sony has a ton of studios woeking on announced and unannounced games (probably more than MS). What is MS doing that Sony is not? You keep saying this on every page.
 

Joeki11a

Banned
Bullshit the Playstation 3 Phat was getting absolutely destroyed. Sony had to literally relaunch the brand (right down to software boxart redesign) and make a Slim console before the tide started to shift and even then it took them years. All you people forget the phat years out of mere convenience. The 360 had a strong start and a weak finish, the PS3 had a weak start and a strong finish. Headstarts mean nothing. The Dreamcast and Wii both prove this. Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.

Xbox isnt a global brand situation, Playstation is thats what helps PS3 finish strong. MS aint winning the global sales ever in their lives in this gaming biz, only Sony & Nintendo can do that, they have true global gaming status.
 

Busty

Banned
Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.

So you're predicting a MS 'win' this gen based on what Sony did last generation?

Reasonable, totally reasonable.
 

kpaadet

Member
Again man...how is MS doing more legwork? Sony has a ton of studios woeking on announced and unannounced games (probably more than MS). What is MS doing that Sony is not? You keep saying this on every page.

Them firmwares bro, I can play with the Xbone OS for hours so much entertainment value. Sony have to step it up, it mean what do they expect me to do? Just play video games?!
 

Joeki11a

Banned
Again man...how is MS doing more legwork? Sony has a ton of studios woeking on announced and unannounced games (probably more than MS). What is MS doing that Sony is not? You keep saying this on every page.

Its not legwork its desperation so they wont face a larger devastion, they are on survival status scared out of their minds, remember they never experienced this 3rd console curse phase. Why people thought MS wasnt going to go through this to?.
 

mocoworm

Member
So you're predicting a MS 'win' this gen based on what Sony did last generation?

Reasonable, totally reasonable.

That isn't what he said. He said, IF that happens then it will have followed the same pattern. How do you get that he, himself is predicting that from his post?
 
Bullshit the Playstation 3 Phat was getting absolutely destroyed. Sony had to literally relaunch the brand (right down to software boxart redesign) and make a Slim console before the tide started to shift and even then it took them years. All you people forget the phat years out of mere convenience. The 360 had a strong start and a weak finish, the PS3 had a weak start and a strong finish. Headstarts mean nothing. The Dreamcast and Wii both prove this. Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.

You are flat wrong, the PS3, world-wide, outsold the Xbox 360 from the year it launched. It was narrowing the gap from the beginning.

People who were US focused were so focused on how badly it was losing the US (and making stupid articles about it failing to outsell the Gamecube) that they ignored the fact that it never sold terribly world-wide.

The Xbox One isn't winning anywhere.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
Bullshit the Playstation 3 Phat was getting absolutely destroyed. Sony had to literally relaunch the brand (right down to software boxart redesign) and make a Slim console before the tide started to shift and even then it took them years. All you people forget the phat years out of mere convenience. The 360 had a strong start and a weak finish, the PS3 had a weak start and a strong finish. Headstarts mean nothing. The Dreamcast and Wii both prove this. Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.

Okay well, feel free to continue this weird Tolkienesque prophesising and ignore the facts, but you're going to end up quite confused when the PS4 continues to sell the Xbone for the entire generation.
 
Feel better now?

Youre missing my point, i was probably too obtuse.

I mean MS and sony constantly switching places at the top of sales numbers can only mean great things for everyone involved, including single console owners.

Why would you want either company resting on success?
 
It's frightening how much some people seem to care about which console sells more.

Unless you own shares in either company, it isn't really of any consequence unless it's purely about fanboy bragging rights. In which case, I'd be taking a long hard look at myself.
 

Rymuth

Member
Best thing about this whole affair is that it gave a certain portion of Gaf who have a bone to pick with Sony, a veritable second wind so they can come out of the woodwork.

NPD threads have been pretty lonely now that console war's been decided. I'm glad Pachter spiced things up.
 
Okay well, feel free to continue this weird Tolkienesque prophesising and ignore the facts, but you're going to end up quite confused when the PS4 continues to sell the Xbone for the entire generation.

How can you honestly say that? 360 was top dog for so long then sony turned the ship around, are you saying its IMPOSSIBLE for MS to catch up when weve seen the sales leader switch a few times in every generation?
 

Joeki11a

Banned
That isn't what he said. He said, IF that happens then it will have followed the same pattern. How do you get that he, himself is predicting that from his post?

The pattern doesnt apply to MS, they dont have global status. PS3 finished off strong because of its global reach, MS has none of that.
 

Fdkn

Member
Bullshit the Playstation 3 Phat was getting absolutely destroyed. Sony had to literally relaunch the brand (right down to software boxart redesign) and make a Slim console before the tide started to shift and even then it took them years. All you people forget the phat years out of mere convenience. The 360 had a strong start and a weak finish, the PS3 had a weak start and a strong finish. Headstarts mean nothing. The Dreamcast and Wii both prove this. Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.

The world is bigger than the US.
 

SeanR1221

Member
My thoughts on Pachter:

He obviously knows what he's doing, or he'd be out of a job. He probably gives very good advice when people pay him.

These freebie statements? He probably just makes without putting any effort into it.

People love to bust on Pachter, but if he was this analyst who's consistently incorrect, I doubt he'd still be in the position he's in today.

So basically we're arguing over Pach-scraps.
 

Joeki11a

Banned
Youre missing my point, i was probably too obtuse.

I mean MS and sony constantly switching places at the top of sales numbers can only mean great things for everyone involved, including single console owners.

Why would you want either company resting on success?

Constant switching, what? Neither of them want that. You think MS wouldnt kill to be winning all of 2014 months and selling software above all others?. Come on.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
How can you honestly say that? 360 was top dog for so long then sony turned the ship around, are you saying its IMPOSSIBLE for MS to catch up when weve seen the sales leader switch a few times in every generation?

I'm not going to say it's impossible, but I do consider it exceedingly improbable that the Xbone will ever catch up to the PS4.
 
Wrong wrong wrong, debunked literally hundreds of times. The PS3 was always selling better than the 360 in several regions worldwide last generation, and by the end they were able to shift the ration in regions that they weren't selling as well as 360 (the UK and US) in order to catch up worldwide overall.

This generation Xbone is selling worse everywhere.

Unless the PS4 is literally discontinued there is nothing that MS can do to catch up.

I'm not going to say it's impossible, but I do consider it exceedingly improbable that the Xbone will ever catch up to the PS4.

You did?

EDIT: I agree that it's nigh impossible, just found those two posts so close a little funny.
 

Busty

Banned
Please don't put words in my posts.

That isn't what he said. He said, IF that happens then it will have followed the same pattern. How do you get that he, himself is predicting that from his post?

So..., it's just a poorly written post then? First you assert that the market will 'correct itself' with an Xbone victory just as it has done with the Wii and Dreamcast head starts meaning nothing (?????) in the past.

And then...,

Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings[/B].....

...,you back peddle with an 'if' it happens all in the same sentence.

... and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.
 
I'm not gonna argue that but lets not pretend like they have no exclusives left this year.

Also both franchises are not as small as people seem to believe. (Singstar Franchise has + 20 million sales and LBP franchise has +9 million sales)



Not everyone loves to play shooters. You dismiss LBP but it will probably sell more than SO maybe even MCC i don't know if its just bias or ignorance that you continue to dismiss games because you don't like them.

Who cares if Singstar and LBP sell well? If you're any gamer worthy of that name, you'd obviously pick MCC and SO instead of those two.
 
Of course, I completely agree. It's totally subjective. My preferences are not the same as others. My posts are always just my angle on things. I am not a parent or a casual gamer, or a teen, or limited by a small budget ... so my opinions will differ vastly from many.

I am very careful now to say, 'In my opinion...' or 'Personally I feel that...' , in many of my posts to get this point across.

A lot of people who jump on my back do not respect that different people have different views, especially on subjective things like preferences of games. It's the same as someone having a go because you like different music than they do.

Personally, I feel that the MS games lineup for 2014 is a lot stronger than the PS4. That's a subjective opinion. It's not wrong. It can't be wrong. It's like saying, 'You think Led Zeppelin are the best band ... but you are wrong.'

I will be buying all the great exclusives for my PS4. It is currently an exclusives machine for me and as such, apart from PS+ free games, I only own Killzone, TLOU, Infamous and Resogun. I can't wait for 2015 as I think that is when the PS4 will really start to be worth my investment in it.

Yes, it's an opinion. But inevitably people, including yourself, pull out the "...and as a result people in general will be buying more Xbox Ones".

That's the line that people cross that takes it out of personal opinion. You crossed that line yourself, in this very thread.
 

Jack cw

Member
Bullshit the Playstation 3 Phat was getting absolutely destroyed. Sony had to literally relaunch the brand (right down to software boxart redesign) and make a Slim console before the tide started to shift and even then it took them years. All you people forget the phat years out of mere convenience. The 360 had a strong start and a weak finish, the PS3 had a weak start and a strong finish. Headstarts mean nothing. The Dreamcast and Wii both prove this. Eventually the tides will correct themselves based on past, present and future offerings and if that ever happens to Xbox One then the pattern is predictable as it has been in generation's past.

Amazing how you alter the past just to make it fit your opinion.
- PS3 (fat) always sold better outside of 360s strongholds (mainland EU, Japan, etc.)
- 360 had a year headstart with great price, brilliant games library, superb online and still sold rather mediocre (supply constrains) and still couldnt beat PS3 on LTD sales worldwide.
- Playstation as a brand is still a force. People are associate gaming with it.
- Xbox brand and Microsoft behind it make people cautious, especially outside of NA. People think of Microsoft and NSA and not about gaming when they hear "xbox"
- Don't forget the RROD dilemma, and the loss of consumer trust in Microsoft
- Online behind a paywall with no real value for the consumer
- 360 was very western male focused, something PS3 made better
- The shift began with a reasonable price for the PS3 and great exclusive and JP games and the EU and JP market were a fallback for Sony
- Microsoft basically stopped supporting 360 after 4 years and were purely Halo/Forza oriented, while Sony gathered many new exclusive IPs in the second half of PS3 lifetime.
- 360 couldn't win much marketshare in keymarkets where its competition was strong - results to witness with the poor xbone performance
- Headstarts mean everything if done right. PS4 was supply contrained but Sony was able to deliver 1 million systems a month and sold them through. Demand is still high and will continue, because the system lives through its hype, word of mouth and positive PR
 

Dragon

Banned
How can you honestly say that? 360 was top dog for so long then sony turned the ship around, are you saying its IMPOSSIBLE for MS to catch up when weve seen the sales leader switch a few times in every generation?

MS wasn't the top dog, the Wii was. And also the 360 came out a year ahead of the PS3. The situations are not the same.
 

Joeki11a

Banned
Best thing about this whole affair is that it gave a certain portion of Gaf who have a bone to pick with Sony, a veritable second wind so they can come out of the woodwork.

NPD threads have been pretty lonely now that console war's been decided. I'm glad Pachter spiced things up.

Whats that thing they say about him?, everything he says its the opposite of what happens, so yeah says it all.
 
Sure it does, but unless there are games that YOU want, you're not going to bother trying to convince anyone else that it's worth buying.

That's why games like Halo are more important. They appeal to the kind of people that want a new £300 console in the first place.


And I dont think a remaster of old Halo games or SO to attract many people with all the third party games coming out this fall and attract a large audience for Xbox. If you are into games you are well aware of what is to come for the ps4 in early 2015 as well as that almost all multiplatt games run better on it so I still belive Sony has better potential to be the better selling console this christmas and by releasing "casual" games they dont have to compete with the CoD, battlefield, AC .... hardcore demographic but instead appeal towards a larger one.
 

twobear

sputum-flecked apoplexy
You did?

EDIT: I agree, that it's nigh impossible, just found those two posts so close a little funny.

Thinking that there's nothing MS can do to catch up and thinking it's impossible for them to catch up are different.

I think that for MS to catch up would need for Sony to give up on supporting PS4, either out of laziness, or financial reasons, much like MS gave up proper support for 360 in 2011.

That's why I consider it extremely improbable that MS will ever catch up or overtake Sony.
 
It should be clear to anyone that has been following gaming news recently that Sony has allowed their success to go to their head and turn into classic Playstation arrogance. While Xbox continues to positively pump out new OS features that makes The One a joy to own, Playstation contents themselves with stability updates and, if we are lucky, a Share Factory update once every four months.

It is also apparent in their approach to releasing games. While Xbox continues to delight gamers, by securing breathtaking exclusives like Sunset Overdrive and Rise of the Tomb Raider or by securing exclusive FIFA experiences, Sony are content to only enter transparent marketing deals for the biggest disappointment of the generation. Playstation arrogance have even gotten to levels where they feel they can stop paying checks to Ubisoft to gimp XBO versions of games to give gamers the impression that PS4 is superior hardware. A gross miscalculation, in my opinion. When AC: Unity releases this fall and looks just as good on The One, gamers will finally realize that the so-called power advantage of the PS4 was a lie all along.

Perhaps most embarrassing of all is how Sony envisioned Driveclub to be a big exclusive that would help drive sales throughout the Holiday season. With gameplay stuck in the 1900s and next to no customization options how did they expect anyone to pick that game up in 2014? And don’t get me started on the multiplayer and PS+ version fiasco. Rather than propel PS4 sales, I expect the bad word-of-mouth from the Driveclub fiasco will negatively affect PS4 sales well into 2015. I am willing to commit to the following bet here and now: Driveclub will be a huge disappointment that will not even chart in the NPD to be released this week. If it does, I will eat my hat. You can laugh all you want, but I expect to be the one still laughing on Thursday night, and you can quote me on that.

I must be losing my touch. I can't tell if this is a joke post or not.... : /
 
I wouldn't mind MS pulling ahead this month. They're absolutely killing it with OS updates and their upcoming exclusives were enough to convince me to go out and purchase one. The vastly superior OS, party chat, voice commands and controller have made it my entertainment system of choice.

But I don't see it happening. MS is improving their console, and in my personal opinion it destroys the PS4 in terms of functionality, but even in the US I don't see MS pulling ahead. They'll do well, but not amazing. They won't pull ahead because Sony just has to be #4thegamers and they'll attract the mainstream audience because MS still has the backlash from the always online and Mattick.
 

Chobel

Member
Youre missing my point, i was probably too obtuse.

I mean MS and sony constantly switching places at the top of sales numbers can only mean great things for everyone involved, including single console owners.

Why would you want either company resting on success?

And of course, we have someone who thinks competition means both consoles being neck and neck in sales. Guess what? It doesn't mean that. Time to bring Y2kev quotes
Why would you want that. Surely sales parity is better for the consumer?
No, it's not. I don't understand where this is coming from.

Competitive platforms are good for the consumer. Sales parity is completely irrelevant to the consumer. In fact, if one platform lags behind the other, it is because the consumer has decided that one platform is not actually good for them. That is how it works. The dog wags the tail.

This "competition is good" thing has grown completely into a monster. Competition is the means by which a lessor is weeded out. If a platform is weaker, it should lose. That is competition. This whole "parity is good for the consumer"/"two platforms selling well is good for the consumer" sentiment is bizarre.

What you are espousing is not capitalism or competition but instead crony capitalism in which market competitors are propped up for the sake of having market competitors.

Y2Kev said:
UNCMark said:
Perhaps you missed the cola wars, the fast food wars, the beer wars.
I didn't. Perhaps YOU did. None of those competitors were on "even footing" when it came to sales. They still aren't. Unless you think coke at 48b in sales is on even footing with PepsiCo at 16b.

Sales parity is IRRELEVANT to the consumer. Sales differential is the RESULT of competition.

Competition results in a winner and a loser. It's not best for the consumer to have everyone on even footing "just because that's best for the consumer." You won't find evidence of this in history; you are depicting controlled markets and zombie corporations.

Here's how it should work: two systems took different paths to the market. That is true. The market will validate them both independently. Someone might lose and it's going to suck for some Internet group.

People are confusing the outcome of competition with the benefits of competition, which is where this silliness over sales comes in.
 

Zyae

Member
Constant switching, what? Neither of them want that. You think MS wouldnt kill to be winning all of 2014 months and selling software above all others?. Come on.

Hes saying that if they were constantly alternating top sales each month it would drive competition further.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
This will mean that either the NPD thread will be full of fun or Pachter's predictions could be equated with the banned sales data site around here.
 
CrazedPro I'd love to hear your answer on MS doing more legwork than Sony

Operating System support has been stellar, bundle offerings in my home country (Australia) double that of the PS4, price changes based on market movements, advertising has been very consistent. JB Hifi and EBGames have been having Xbox competitions extremely frequently up towards the Christmas period. Here in my home town of Brisbane there have been Xbox popup tents and parked vans showing off games.

Comparatively and anecdotally, I haven't seen a single Sony promotional event in my city. Sorry if you were expecting a well sourced and industry analytical essay. I'm just being honest with my impressions thus far.
 
And of course, we have someone who thinks competition means both consoles being neck and neck in sales. Guess what? It doesn't mean that. Time to bring Y2kev quotes

Seriously?

If there are winners and losers because of competition, and the competition is LOSING and does things to catch up that could be better for gamers, IE, games with gold, etc, how is that not better?

Im genuinely curious why everyone would rather have one company dominating rather than multiple fighting for your dollars.
 
I can't believe people are still trying to compare the situation of the PS3 with the Xbone. It's not even remotely the same.

And Pachter is going to be wrong.

As a gamer, would you rather play Singstar or SO, the MCC or Littlebigplanet? I mean, I know people love Sony but come on.

I'd take LBP3 all day. I've played enough Halo through the years to last a lifetime and this will be my first LittleBigPlanet (which I've always really wanted to play), so it will be a fresh experience for me.

I'd much rather play Sunset Overdrive than Singstar though.
 
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