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The bizarre thing is not that he is predicting the All In-One Entertainment System Xbox One (Microsoft::. All Rights Reserved 2014) to outsell the PS4 for a month, that is certainly possible in Murica Land of the Free and Home of the Brave. The bizarre thing is that he is predicting only 250k for PS4, meaning a insignificant almost bump in sales due to Destiny.

But we shall see, the lulz will be had, either on Pachter's prediction or meltdowns

 

[Salex_]

How can you honestly say that? 360 was top dog for so long then sony turned the ship around, are you saying its IMPOSSIBLE for MS to catch up when weve seen the sales leader switch a few times in every generation?

US numbers from 4 months ago.

360: 41.5m
PS3: 25.9m

Despite that massive difference in the biggest region, the LTDs are basically the same due to the worldwide appeal of the brand. They were never close in the US regardless of what they did.

The PS4 is very close to a 1m lead in the US. I don't see how it's possible for them to catch up worldwide.

They can still do well and sell a lot of hardware though.

 

[RedNumberFive]

Operating System support has been stellar, bundle offerings in my home country (Australia) double that of the PS4, price changes based on market movements, advertising has been very consistent. JB Hifi and EBGames have been having Xbox competitions extremely frequently up towards the Christmas period. Here in my home town of Brisbane there have been Xbox popup tents and parked vans showing off games.

Comparatively and anecdotally, I haven't seen a single Sony promotional event in my city. Sorry if you were expecting a well sourced and industry analytical essay. I'm just being honest with my impressions thus far.

Sony had the luxury of not completely bungling their console launch, while Microsoft is on a campaign to regain the hearts and minds of the gamer. Regardless, a hungry Microsoft has been good for course-correcting their horrible vision. I'll be curious to see if these quick changes lead to a long term success.

 

[Road]

And people

Spoiler

with persecution complex

say Pacther only trolls Nintendo fans.

 

[Description]

Thinking that there's nothing MS can do to catch up and thinking it's impossible for them to catch up are different.

I think that for MS to catch up would need for Sony to give up on supporting PS4, either out of laziness, or financial reasons, much like MS gave up proper support for 360 in 2011.

That's why I consider it extremely improbable that MS will ever catch up or overtake Sony.

Point taken.

However, I think the chances of Sony dropping support for PS4 are about as likely as a 150$ Xbox One (both of which would possibly? end up with MS on top).

Now that I mention that- I wonder how much a $150 Xbox One would change the ratio in Europe. Does that look too much like desperation and exiting the game so that no one would buy it?

 

[Footos22]

Operating System support has been stellar, bundle offerings in my home country (Australia) double that of the PS4, price changes based on market movements, advertising has been very consistent. JB Hifi and EBGames have been having Xbox competitions extremely frequently up towards the Christmas period. Here in my home town of Brisbane there have been Xbox popup tents and parked vans showing off games.

Comparatively and anecdotally, I haven't seen a single Sony promotional event in my city. Sorry if you were expecting a well sourced and industry analytical essay. I'm just being honest with my impressions thus far.

Os support is a non issue. People primarily buy games consoles to play games on. What massive feature has MS put on theri system that makes it a tempting console compared to sonys cos im struggling to come up with one.

casuals dont care. they just wanna take system home, put disc in and play.

 

[twobear]

Im genuinely curious why everyone would rather have one company dominating rather than multiple fighting for your dollars.

Fewer consoles to develop for means that publishers can spend more time and money on (exclusive) games, and they can also take more risks since there's a larger user base so there's a greater chance of recovering their investment. A good part of the reason why PS2 and PSX had such a good software selection is that they dominated their respective generations.

 

[immortal-joe]

Thinking that there's nothing MS can do to catch up and thinking it's impossible for them to catch up are different.

I think that for MS to catch up would need for Sony to give up on supporting PS4, either out of laziness, or financial reasons, much like MS gave up proper support for 360 in 2011.

That's why I consider it extremely improbable that MS will ever catch up or overtake Sony.

Money makes the world go something something...

Microsoft is really good when it comes to throwing money at the problem, particularly the Xbox division. Even as they stumble behind Sony, the speed at which the discounts and offers were being released was mind boggling. If they get even the tiniest of indications that something yielded a boost in sales, they'll do it again, only on a larger scale.

I'm oversimplifying it, but I think the essence of what I'm saying is easy to get.

 

[Chobel]

Seriously?

If there are winners and losers because of competition, and the competition is LOSING and does things to catch up that could be better for gamers, IE, games with gold, etc, how is that not better?

Im genuinely curious why everyone would rather have one company dominating rather than multiple fighting for your dollars.

Is it that hard to understand? Competition =/= close sales, you can still have competition even when one platform is dominating. Also domination (not monopoly) can also be good, see PS2 era.

 

[Neuromancer]

I must be losing my touch. I can't tell if this is a joke post or not.... : /

That whole post was a joke, lol

 

[CrazedProfessional]

Os support is a non issue. People primarily buy games consoles to play games on. What massive feature has MS put on theri system that makes it a tempting console compared to sonys cos im struggling to come up with one.

casuals dont care. they just wanna take system home, put disc in and play.

An attractive bundle is atleast considered an initial feature of the original package the customer purchased. As you say, people want to put in a disc and play. the more discs in a bundle, the more attractive a package might be, in that regard. The bundles so far in my home country have been strongly in the favour of Microsoft. It might be a totally different story in other markets and for that reason I understand entirely if anyone disagrees.

 

[Zyae]

Fewer consoles to develop for means that publishers can spend more time and money on (exclusive) games, and they can also take more risks since there's a larger user base so there's a greater chance of recovering their investment. A good part of the reason why PS2 and PSX had such a good software selection is that they dominated their respective generations.

What. This does not make any sense. One platform is stagnation. Why do you think it took Sony so long to develop a competent online system? Because the PS2 dominated. MS comes in and shakes things up; forced Sony to greatly improve PSN and implement ps+ and free games. You really cant believe that one console is better than a close 2 or 3

 

[EmptySpace]

Seriously?

If there are winners and losers because of competition, and the competition is LOSING and does things to catch up that could be better for gamers, IE, games with gold, etc, how is that not better?

Im genuinely curious why everyone would rather have one company dominating rather than multiple fighting for your dollars.

because competition = good, monopoly = bad isn't always the case, despite your textbook saying so.

 

[Halph n Halph]

Operating System support has been stellar, bundle offerings in my home country (Australia) double that of the PS4, price changes based on market movements, advertising has been very consistent. JB Hifi and EBGames have been having Xbox competitions extremely frequently up towards the Christmas period. Here in my home town of Brisbane there have been Xbox popup tents and parked vans showing off games.

Comparatively and anecdotally, I haven't seen a single Sony promotional event in my city. Sorry if you were expecting a well sourced and industry analytical essay. I'm just being honest with my impressions thus far.

Of course. Why does SCE sponsor the UEFA Champions league when they can have pop up tents in Brisbane?

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

Seriously?

If there are winners and losers because of competition, and the competition is LOSING and does things to catch up that could be better for gamers, IE, games with gold, etc, how is that not better?

Im genuinely curious why everyone would rather have one company dominating rather than multiple fighting for your dollars.

Weak-wristed "competition" where two companies just barely trump each other means that neither company is driven to really stand out. In a properly functioning market, a "better" product wins hands down.

If the market doesn't overwhelmingly support products that most people prefer, then there's no consequences to competition and it loses its teeth.

 

[Zyae]

Is it that hard to understand? Competition =/= close sales, you can still have competition even when one platform is dominating. Also domination (not monopoly) can also be good, see PS2 era.

Yes, close sales == competition. Close sales means that the competitor is doing something that consumers want and will push each other to improve their platform over the competitor. Dominating in sales and monopolies encourage stagnation. This isnt hard.

 

[CrazedProfessional]

Of course. Why does SCE sponsor the UEFA Champions league when they can have pop up tents in Brisbane?

I'm not saying it's important, I am literally sharing my experience in my home town. No strings attached.

 

[GlamFM]

Of course. Why does SCE sponsor the UEFA Champions league when they can have pop up tents in Brisbane?

How popular do you think the UEFA Champions league is in Australia or NA?

 

[twobear]

Money makes the world go something something...

Microsoft is really good when it comes to throwing money at the problem, particularly the Xbox division. Even as they stumble behind Sony, the speed at which the discounts and offers were being released was mind boggling. If they get even the tiniest of indications that something yielded a boost in sales, they'll do it again, only on a larger scale.

I'm oversimplifying it, but I think the essence of what I'm saying is easy to get.

Unfortunately throwing money at the problem in this manner will only go so far. MS are all about the quick fixes and short-termism. They'd rather try and get sales parity now by taking a huge hit to their revenue than by investing in having a broad and deep variety of first-party content on their system.

Next year with Bloodborne, Uncharted 4, etc., it's going to be more and more difficult for MS to convince people to jump into their ecosystem even if Sony do nothing to lower the price of PS4. Does anyone seriously see more Fable and more Gears of War appealing to a lot of people who don't already own an Xbone?

 

[Zyae]

Weak-wristed "competition" where two companies just barely trump each other means that neither company is driven to really stand out. In a properly functioning market, a "better" product wins hands down.

If the market doesn't overwhelmingly support products that most people prefer, then there's no consequences to competition and it loses its teeth.

There ARE consequences for competition. MS is losing sales, this will push them to innovate and make changes. You should WANT this as it will drive Sony. This really is not hard. You do not want a single console future.

 

[JaggedSac]

Weak-wristed "competition" where two companies just barely trump each other means that neither company is driven to really stand out. In a properly functioning market, a "better" product wins hands down.

If the market doesn't overwhelmingly support products that most people prefer, then there's no consequences to competition and it loses its teeth.

PS3 and 360 years were bad competition?

 

[The Jackdog]

Is it that hard to understand? Competition =/= close sales, you can still have competition even when one platform is dominating. Also domination (not monopoly) can also be good, see PS2 era.

Im not trying to argue im trying to figure out where you are getting this.

I know competition doesnt equal close sales but that doesnt mean close sales arent an indicator of how competitive a market is.

Say two NFL teams are playing. the sonys and the xboxes.

The score is 37-3. Sony takes out their QB and stops trying. Why should they? They are absolutely dominating. The game is boring as hell now. Everyone is leaving the stadium because no one is putting on a good show.

Now the xboxes start to mount a comeback. Score is 37-30, sony puts all their starters in, and the game because much more interesting to watch. Now we have something. Fans of football everywhere get a good time.

Same analogy works with cable companies. Right now in the US there are like 6 major ISPs right? So, with your argument, that domination can be good, if we just let Comcast run the internet for the whole country its gonna be great right? Because a single company dominating a market is okay.

 

[gamechanger87]

Fewer consoles to develop for means that publishers can spend more time and money on (exclusive) games, and they can also take more risks since there's a larger user base so there's a greater chance of recovering their investment. A good part of the reason why PS2 and PSX had such a good software selection is that they dominated their respective generations.

That's such an absurd argument. Sonys first party devs are making games for one console and they have had excellent output thus far right?

 

[CrazedProfessional]

You do not want a single console future.

This is Neogaf dude.

 

[mujun]

It's weird how as better LBP got with each installment it also scored lower. WTF LOL

Yeah, LBP 20 should totally have a metacritic score of like 130!

Right!

 

[Dee Dah Dave]

It's frightening how much some people seem to care about which console sells more.

Unless you own shares in either company, it isn't really of any consequence unless it's purely about fanboy bragging rights. In which case, I'd be taking a long hard look at myself.

The general quality of the gaming side of this forum is abysmal. It's really no better than Gamefaqs, N4G or Gamspots' System Wars. It's just the same cast of characters bickering with each other about the same tired shit over and over again. It's really pathetic.

The saddest thing is not the fanboys themselves, but the poor moderation of what could be a much better forum.

/rant

 

[Ricky_R]

How can you honestly say that? 360 was top dog for so long then sony turned the ship around, are you saying its IMPOSSIBLE for MS to catch up when weve seen the sales leader switch a few times in every generation?

I guess nothing is impossible, so yeah, one might say that MS can catch up to Sony at one point if we go by chances alone. However when you really think about the things the 360 had in its favor (one year head start, a more attractive price, a much better online experience and better looking and performing multiplaforms) that the Xbone no longer has, it really makes it difficult to feel optimistic about it.

Specially since the gap in NA is not getting any shorter (as of now), and the Xbone is taking a beating in EU.

 

[Stardust_Comet]

Operating System support has been stellar, bundle offerings in my home country (Australia) double that of the PS4, price changes based on market movements, advertising has been very consistent. JB Hifi and EBGames have been having Xbox competitions extremely frequently up towards the Christmas period. Here in my home town of Brisbane there have been Xbox popup tents and parked vans showing off games.

Comparatively and anecdotally, I haven't seen a single Sony promotional event in my city. Sorry if you were expecting a well sourced and industry analytical essay. I'm just being honest with my impressions thus far.

Coming from Sydney, I recall at the local EBGames here having a promotional event for the PS4 earlier in the year. I can't say I remember what it was because I didn't buy it then, but it had to do with "get a free something" with it.

So, there has been promotional stuff for Sony, just it's possible the XBone is overdoing it in the regions it can possibly gain the most support, so you're only seeing XBone promotional stuff.

 

[twobear]

What. This does not make any sense. One platform is stagnation. Why do you think it took Sony so long to develop a competent online system? Because the PS2 dominated. MS comes in and shakes things up; forced Sony to greatly improve PSN and implement ps+ and free games. You really cant believe that one console is better than a close 2 or 3

The question was why anybody would rather have one console dominating.

Does it have disadvantages? Almost certainly, like you mention, there's no way that PS4 would have the architecture, development tools, or online services it does, if MS hadn't entered the industry and pushed those things as advantages of their approach.

Are there absolutely no reasons to want it? Certainly not: we have good evidence, as I say, that one platform dominating leads to a broader range of games. The ultimate example of this is PC gaming and Steam—do you think that kind of indie/mid-tier marketplace could exist without the kind of standardisation that exists across PCs?

 

[Killroyskbg]

How popular do you think the UEFA Champions league is in Australia or NA?

How popular do you think US centric deals, NFL adds, tents in Australia are in europé?

 

[Chobel]

Yes, close sales == competition. Close sales means that the competitor is doing something that consumers want and will push each other to improve their platform over the competitor. Dominating in sales and monopolies encourage stagnation. This isnt hard.

No, it isn't. God, re-quoting Y2kev, again.

Why would you want that. Surely sales parity is better for the consumer?

No, it's not. I don't understand where this is coming from.

Competitive platforms are good for the consumer. Sales parity is completely irrelevant to the consumer. In fact, if one platform lags behind the other, it is because the consumer has decided that one platform is not actually good for them. That is how it works. The dog wags the tail.

This "competition is good" thing has grown completely into a monster. Competition is the means by which a lessor is weeded out. If a platform is weaker, it should lose. That is competition. This whole "parity is good for the consumer"/"two platforms selling well is good for the consumer" sentiment is bizarre.

What you are espousing is not capitalism or competition but instead crony capitalism in which market competitors are propped up for the sake of having market competitors.

Perhaps you missed the cola wars, the fast food wars, the beer wars.

I didn't. Perhaps YOU did. None of those competitors were on "even footing" when it came to sales. They still aren't. Unless you think coke at 48b in sales is on even footing with PepsiCo at 16b.

Sales parity is IRRELEVANT to the consumer. Sales differential is the RESULT of competition.

Competition results in a winner and a loser. It's not best for the consumer to have everyone on even footing "just because that's best for the consumer." You won't find evidence of this in history; you are depicting controlled markets and zombie corporations.

Here's how it should work: two systems took different paths to the market. That is true. The market will validate them both independently. Someone might lose and it's going to suck for some Internet group.

People are confusing the outcome of competition with the benefits of competition, which is where this silliness over sales comes in.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

My thoughts on Pachter:

He obviously knows what he's doing, or he'd be out of a job. He probably gives very good advice when people pay him.

These freebie statements? He probably just makes without putting any effort into it.

People love to bust on Pachter, but if he was this analyst who's consistently incorrect, I doubt he'd still be in the position he's in today.

So basically we're arguing over Pach-scraps.

IIRC he's not paid to make hardware predictions. So yeah, you're right. Pacter loves to speculate, as we all do, but usually on GT or otherwise its outside the realm of his professional opinion. People react because they think he's speaking from authority, but really its speculation. It would help his case if he made a more concious effort to distinguish that.

When it comes to HW predicitons, there are GAF members that are more accurate than Pacter.

 

[gamechanger87]

The general quality of the gaming side of this forum is abysmal. It's really no better than Gamefaqs, N4G or Gamspots' System Wars. It's just the same cast of characters bickering with each other about the same tired shit over and over again. It's really pathetic.

The saddest thing is not the fanboys themselves, but the poor moderation of what could be a much better forum.

/rant

100% agreement

 

[GlamFM]

How popular do you think US centric deals, NFL adds, tents in Australia are in europé?

 

[hardcastlemccormick]

There ARE consequences for competition. MS is losing sales, this will push them to innovate and make changes. You should WANT this as it will drive Sony. This really is not hard. You do not want a single console future.

I actually do want a single console future, but that's not the point of this discussion.

If all it takes to get back into the good graces of the market is a few little sprinkles of nebulous concepts like "innovation" and "changes," then there are no consequences, no long-term strategies necessary. The reality is, things are a bit more severe than that.

Having several tiny little battles where nobody walks away bruised? That's not competition, that's a baby slap fight. It's what Sony and Microsoft have been locked into for a good decade, and it's only resulted in each other attempting to get "up to par." Snooze.

 

[le.phat]

This thread is the reason Neogaf-on-Sony's-payroll conspiracy theories exist.

Nope its dude like you and misterxmedia that keep those theories alive lol

 

[Halph n Halph]

I'm not saying it's important, I am literally sharing my experience in my home town. No strings attached.

Well I have no idea about the marketing in Aus ,but in the UK and Europe Sony are offering bundles and price cuts to match most deals which MS put out there. The Xbox is no longer the go to platform for the UK casual , and that in part is due to aggressive marketing.

 

[N.Domixis]

Woke up to this on my Facebook feed... and saw this story in a bunch of other places yesterday. That's a lot of coverage

Hugh, that's so stupid. I can already picure all the articles of how the console wars has shifted if ms ever wins a month of NPD. Lets forget about the rest of he world...

 

[Salex_]

Im not trying to argue im trying to figure out where you are getting this.

I know competition doesnt equal close sales but that doesnt mean close sales arent an indicator of how competitive a market is.

Say two NFL teams are playing. the sonys and the xboxes.

The score is 37-3. Sony takes out their QB and stops trying. Why should they? They are absolutely dominating. The game is boring as hell now. Everyone is leaving the stadium because no one is putting on a good show.

Just checking, but are you referring to games with this comparison? There's no way they're going to cancel their 1st party games/games from hired devs just because they're dominating.

This never happened with the PS1, PS2, and it's not happening with the PS4 judging by the amount of 2015 games they already announced and the amount of unannounced 1st party games that are working on new AAA IPs.

You might have a point when it comes to the speed of firmware updates.

 

[Jack cw]

There ARE consequences for competition. MS is losing sales, this will push them to innovate and make changes. You should WANT this as it will drive Sony. This really is not hard. You do not want a single console future.

This is such a hyperbole statement to make.
We never had a single console past and wont ever have a future with one system only.

Close competition means either both are doing something right or both something wrong. Xbone and PS4 are pretty much identical in what they offer and one of them just has the better package and value for the money and people have decided. Even if PS4 wins handsomely it will always have competition as the 2 others will have some market share.

 

[MaximoffZero]

I own neither console, me watching this thread:

 

[gamechanger87]

The question was why anybody would rather have one console dominating.

Does it have disadvantages? Almost certainly, like you mention, there's no way that PS4 would have the architecture, development tools, or online services it does, if MS hadn't entered the industry and pushed those things as advantages of their approach.

Are there absolutely no reasons to want it? Certainly not: we have good evidence, as I say, that one platform dominating leads to a broader range of games. The ultimate example of this is PC gaming and Steam—do you think that kind of indie/mid-tier marketplace could exist without the kind of standardisation that exists across PCs?

PS2 generation is nothing like today. Mobile didn't exist then and is now a big part of the industry. Many of the devs for the PS2 generation have moved to mobile and we really no longer have hundreds of Japanese developers because the markets tastes changed.

 

[Neuromancer]

There ARE consequences for competition. MS is losing sales, this will push them to innovate and make changes. You should WANT this as it will drive Sony. This really is not hard. You do not want a single console future.

No but I have no problem with one console having a commanding lead, either.

 

[Chobel]

Im not trying to argue im trying to figure out where you are getting this.

I know competition doesnt equal close sales but that doesnt mean close sales arent an indicator of how competitive a market is.

Say two NFL teams are playing. the sonys and the xboxes.

The score is 37-3. Sony takes out their QB and stops trying. Why should they? They are absolutely dominating. The game is boring as hell now. Everyone is leaving the stadium because no one is putting on a good show.

Now the xboxes start to mount a comeback. Score is 37-30, sony puts all their starters in, and the game because much more interesting to watch. Now we have something. Fans of football everywhere get a good time.

Same analogy works with cable companies. Right now in the US there are like 6 major ISPs right? So, with your argument, that domination can be good, if we just let Comcast run the internet for the whole country its gonna be great right? Because a single company dominating a market is okay.

Did even read y2kev qoutes? Here's the summed part "Sales parity is IRRELEVANT to the consumer. Sales differential is the RESULT of competition."

And I never said "dominating a market is okay". I said domination is not always a bad thing, close sales is not always a good thing.

 

[MastaKilla]

If this is true it just verifies to me the price is the most important factor in all of this

 

[Spottiettiedop]

An attractive bundle is atleast considered an initial feature of the original package the customer purchased. As you say, people want to put in a disc and play. the more discs in a bundle, the more attractive a package might be, in that regard. The bundles so far in my home country have been strongly in the favour of Microsoft. It might be a totally different story in other markets and for that reason I understand entirely if anyone disagrees.

Basically.
I'm a parent of one but if I was a parent of two or more, I'm looking for the biggest bang for my buck. So any cost conscious parent with be initially intrigued by a bundle.

 

[CrazedProfessional]

Unfortunately throwing money at the problem in this manner will only go so far.

What about throwing money at China?

 

[Dragonborn]

It's frightening how much some people seem to care about which console sells more.

Unless you own shares in either company, it isn't really of any consequence unless it's purely about fanboy bragging rights. In which case, I'd be taking a long hard look at myself.

It's frightneing how people uninterested in sales come into threads about sales just to downplay them or state how they're so above it.

 

[Dr_LucienSanchez]

As a gamer, would you rather play Singstar or SO, the MCC or Littlebigplanet? I mean, I know people love Sony but come on.

Out of those four, LittleBigPlanet most definitely. I mean, I guess that makes me not a true gamer©, but I'm pretty cool with that.

 

[AmFreak]

People wanting a one console future must be incredible naive.
We just witnessed what a company tried to do, cause they thought they had enough market power (Ms).
Do you really think all this would have played out the same, if Ms had been alone on the market (DRM reverse, remove of Kinect, removing features from the paywall, etc...)?

A one console future doesn't mean you get the best from a company, it means you get the worst.