-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
EU- Referendum for the UK..... Neogaf UK are you in or out?
- Thread starter Tak3n
- Start date
- Status
You think they won't? The EFTA has four members it would just be getting a fifth ... the UK.
Also no to the political union point of 'the problems' I fail to see why we need to be involved politically. It could be up to each country do they want to take refugees/bail out Greece.
Linkstrikesback
Member
I think the mistake I made was reading the thread title "are you in or out", in being the first answer in that question, and then rush clicked the first answer in the poll without reading the poll question there properly until immediately after I hit submit.
If Cameron wanted to try and scupper the out campaign he would have announced a referendum for Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland and England. 80% of the UK population lives in England and even if all the other regions voted to stay in they would be forced to leave.
There is so much uncertainty around it, it's hard to know what will happen.
There is so much uncertainty around it, it's hard to know what will happen.
Admittedly not the most knowledgeable when it comes to the EU, but want to see if I understand this right. Countries like Norway are part of the EFTA, and can carry out free trade with other countries in this. Outside of that, they also have other individual trade agreements with other countries. Would it be correct to say that any other cross country business dealings would be subject to import tariffs?
Visualante2
Member
Doesn't Norway implement many EU projects, despite having no vote on them? I think their situation is wildly different to the our way or the highway attitude of the vote leave set. Are people in the vote leave camp even talking about the benefits of the Norwegian model?
Same. I'm not going to make a pre-judged conclusion until I have heard everyone's opinion, but right now I see more reason to stay in.
I voted Tory primarily for economic stability (rightly or wrongly is another topic of discussion not for this thread). By that rule leaving the EU is a massive economic risk that goes against my original reason behind my vote last year in the GE.
ClosingADoor
Member
No argument from me there. I think the expansion in 2007 and 2013 were too quick. You can't keep expanding while the previous batch isn't up to the same economic standards. I very much approve of letting Poland, the Baltic states and others in the EU, but when you have people from there still traveling west for better jobs, you can't expand further or people will complain. And they're looking towards the Balkans now already...
And I really hope the EU doesn't fail. Makes live so much easier, gives us power in the world the individual states can't have, regulation to keep governments in check sometimes, and generations growing up without any wars.
You are in an union to help each other when things go bad. You can't have states just enjoying the benefits and quitting when it costs a bit of money or when trouble comes around.
3 of the EU states are already represented in the G7 along with the UK that gives them power on the world stage, much more so than being in the EU.
Also that isn't a great point to being in a Union.
MassiveNights
Banned
In obviously.
Out would be interesting for a Scot who yearns for independence though.
Out would be interesting for a Scot who yearns for independence though.
cablenathan
Member
In
I admit I can see some of the benefits of leaving and many of the benefits staying. Leaving looks like a viable option on paper / in theory, however I don't think the UK would be able to make things happen in a timely enough fashion to actually have appropriate structures eg alternative regulations in place before leaving to actually benefit from leaving...leaving would be a complete shambles and they'd end up wasting more resources along the way than they would have benefitted from in leaving. Better the devil you know.
I admit I can see some of the benefits of leaving and many of the benefits staying. Leaving looks like a viable option on paper / in theory, however I don't think the UK would be able to make things happen in a timely enough fashion to actually have appropriate structures eg alternative regulations in place before leaving to actually benefit from leaving...leaving would be a complete shambles and they'd end up wasting more resources along the way than they would have benefitted from in leaving. Better the devil you know.
ferrasvansen
Member
If England votes out, and Scotland votes to stay in then the union will break up, of that I'm certain. Almost all the no voters I know including myself will swap sides, I would rather leave the UK than the EU at this current time. I was totally against independence, however I feel myself myself regretting that choice.
I'm English and I'd rather be in the EU than the UK too. Might be leaving the country anyway, but voting out would certainly make it a slam dunk.
I probably would have too were my businesses not in the UK, along with family too. I have to wonder how trade would be affected. At the moment I'm importing quite a lot from other EU countries, and the fact that VAT is already included, there are no additional taxes, and the Euro is not so strong lately, all allows for me to make greater margins. I wonder if those advantages would remain were we to leave.
itsbenoclock
Member
IN
My perspective is that of a student, so perhaps skewed positive, and I've seen the positive benefits of open borders (EU students coming to study, drawing on the best talent across a continent) which is my biggest thing with the EU, and I'd hate to see all that fucked up over bureaucracy.
My perspective is that of a student, so perhaps skewed positive, and I've seen the positive benefits of open borders (EU students coming to study, drawing on the best talent across a continent) which is my biggest thing with the EU, and I'd hate to see all that fucked up over bureaucracy.
These results are very interesting, as Neogaf is a large multi-cultural community (like London I reckon) and the results are not surprising except that the 'out' got a lot more than I expected....
looking at the online polls done so far it is clear it could go either way, Paddy Power think we are going to stay in looking at the odds.... the closer it stays the more tha establishment will go into a blind panic and false promises will be thrown about
looking at the online polls done so far it is clear it could go either way, Paddy Power think we are going to stay in looking at the odds.... the closer it stays the more tha establishment will go into a blind panic and false promises will be thrown about
Burgess_101
Member
I hope we stay in and I will be voting as much.
Even from a personal point of view my other half is in Germany and I have to go back and forth and when I go to bring her over I don't want anymore hassle.
Even from a personal point of view my other half is in Germany and I have to go back and forth and when I go to bring her over I don't want anymore hassle.
I dont think it would be reaching to far to say, if we vote to leave I would fully expect there to be another referendum (especially with a change of Government) not long after the put vote.
Ovek
7Member7
An independent Scotland would not automatically become a EU member.
Scotland is also not going anywhere, the entire SNP independent Scotland hinged on the price of oil and more importantly the price of oil going up. And as we all know especially the hundreds of workers in Scotland over the past month or so that have been give the boot the price of oil did not go up.
LazerRanger
Member
In.
I've always seen the benefits of the EU rather than obsessing on the faults.
I'm also going to start a family with a partner who has moved from an EU start to the UK so I'm kind of anxious at the moment for our future.
I've always seen the benefits of the EU rather than obsessing on the faults.
I'm also going to start a family with a partner who has moved from an EU start to the UK so I'm kind of anxious at the moment for our future.
No it didn't. Oil was always on top of the economic case being made.
Opinions are stupid. People are stupid. The majority of voters in this referendum will vote based on gut instinct or daily mail headlines rather than a decent understanding of the pros and cons.
Huge things like this should be determined by government IMO.
I always suck at converting betting odds to percentages but it looks like the Betfair market is predicting about a 25% chance of leave winning right now.
It'll be interesting to see how that changes once Boris announces which way he's going later today.
It'll be interesting to see how that changes once Boris announces which way he's going later today.
Sir_Crocodile
Member
The EU is a hugely unwieldy and corrupt beast, but it has largely been a force for good and a net positive, so I'll be voting to stay in.
It is a bit sickening how much of this is just about Tories positioning themselves within the party out of self interest than any kind of ideology,
Mac@NeoGAF
Banned
I doubt you'll find a more ideologically driven cause within the Tory party than the EU.
Kadayi
Banned
Please. the people in power never give it up willingly. Way before the mockery that was the alternative vote referendum, back in 1997 the Labour government carried out a review of the UK voting system and the conclusion was very much that some form of PR was the way to go for fairer representation. Did they act on it? And willingly cut their own political power in the process? Not a chance. Tories could of skipped a referendum and done the same as the information was still valid. Again, not a chance.
Despite some huge problems I'm in the 'in' camp
But the Schadenfreude part of me that is kind of is curious to see what the US would be like under President Trump, is also kind of curious to see just how bad things could go after an 'out' vote.
Also I wouldn't put much stock in the GAF poll for the numbers, in large part because the missing demographic here is the ever increasing pensioner vote. Many of whom are in the 'out' camp because all they see and hear is government bailouts of other countries.
Non-UK-er here... (Ireland)
I'm curious what powers eurozone countries have in relation to bilateral trade agreements and the like. Do they now negotiate exclusively as a bloc?
If that's the case, I would be wary of claims that the UK will be able to negotiate as good or better deals on the 'good stuff' the EU enables if it leaves. It's hard to imagine other EU countries that are already more tightly integrated - e.g. eurozone countries, and the big ones in particular - wanting to encourage the precedent that a former member state can do better outside. I'd expect them to actively work against that precedent in any UK-eurozone negotiations post-exit. Sure, it might hurt those countries too, but they are in aggregate a much bigger market than the UK, and it would probably hurt the UK a lot more.
Now I'm not saying they'd declare economic war or anything, but it's hard to imagine 'same or better' on fronts like trade and other economic benefits post-exit. UK would have to decide if being outside would allow other advantages elsewhere that outweigh that, I guess.
I'm curious what powers eurozone countries have in relation to bilateral trade agreements and the like. Do they now negotiate exclusively as a bloc?
If that's the case, I would be wary of claims that the UK will be able to negotiate as good or better deals on the 'good stuff' the EU enables if it leaves. It's hard to imagine other EU countries that are already more tightly integrated - e.g. eurozone countries, and the big ones in particular - wanting to encourage the precedent that a former member state can do better outside. I'd expect them to actively work against that precedent in any UK-eurozone negotiations post-exit. Sure, it might hurt those countries too, but they are in aggregate a much bigger market than the UK, and it would probably hurt the UK a lot more.
Now I'm not saying they'd declare economic war or anything, but it's hard to imagine 'same or better' on fronts like trade and other economic benefits post-exit. UK would have to decide if being outside would allow other advantages elsewhere that outweigh that, I guess.
Boris is going for Leave! according to insiders.... that is Huge for the leave campaign, and we know it is as Cameron had a desperate meeting with him to try to woo him...
He could win it for the out team as he is predicted to probably be the next Tory Leader and like him or loathe him he is to a fault a charismatic person, if it is confirmed he is joining the leave, it is going to be one hell of a good fight
Canada just recently agreed a huge trade deal with the EU, without all the nasty parts (immigration, freedom of movement etc) it is possible
Stereogatari
Banned
Out. Just because it would be more dramatic.
Russian Roulette always seems like the best idea until you have no more ideas.
They are not suddenly going to expel all the Eastern Europeans come June 24th if we vote to leave.... we will have years of high court cases and the like over this, but my best guess would be there would have to be some sort of amnesty, with a line in the sand. that from this date forward etc you have to apply
Does it confer all the same benefits?
Even if so...Canada was never part of the EU. Negotiating with the EU as a former member vs negotiating as a country that never was a member may be very different things indeed in terms of precedents for the cohesion of the union. If the UK got the same or better on 'the good stuff' it would risk encouraging questions in other EU countries on their membership, and possibly more break-offs. That would be the risk anyway, and that's something that's at stake that isn't with countries like Canada, or Norway or whatever.
If the 'out' vote won they most likely would want to stop any welfare payments ASAP, like CHB/Child tax credits/etc to make EU Citizens leave before any amnesty date they do put in place.
I'm going to be voting In.
Whilst the EU has its problems and is in serious need of reform, those needless monthly trips to Strasbourg for MEPs costing over £100million can be halted right off. There, that's over a Billion saved every year, and ontop of that there needs to be much less decision making by unelected officials, I still think that membership is a net gain for the UK and we would be worse off out than staying in.
It worries me that some people are stupid enough to vote out just to go "Fuck Cameron, I'm voting against what he wants".
Whilst the EU has its problems and is in serious need of reform, those needless monthly trips to Strasbourg for MEPs costing over £100million can be halted right off. There, that's over a Billion saved every year, and ontop of that there needs to be much less decision making by unelected officials, I still think that membership is a net gain for the UK and we would be worse off out than staying in.
It worries me that some people are stupid enough to vote out just to go "Fuck Cameron, I'm voting against what he wants".
For trade it only benefits the other 24 'smaller' member states, France/Germany/Italy/UK would be fine outside the EU for trade as those are the biggest economies within the common market.
yes, that would certainly be a given, day 1 I would imagine
Not sure if serious, but you can get them in Switzerland so I doubt that will be affected.
ReplacementPelican
Member
Whilst I feel we're talking cross-purposes because your post was more about business regulation in general I'll reply as best I can.
Whilst I agree that the EU laws regarding state subsidies is criminally under-reported in regards to the steel works I can sympathise with the position and stress that it's not just the UK who was effected by this. The EU's argument was twofold; firstly, aid distorts competition within the single market and doing so for the steel works sets an awful precedent for future industry; secondly, it creates friction between member States when it creates a race to subsidise more than country a, b or c so as to keep competitiveness.
Also, I'm sure you're more than aware that the reason that France and Germany 'don't have our backs' is because Cameron left the European People's Party Group (the ruling party) and fucked us all up along with it, taking us out of discussions before parliamentary meetings with the biggest players in Europe. Not to mention the public being stupid and short-sighted enough to give us 24 work-shy UKIP MEPs thus creating a self-fulfilling prophecy and further harming our representation. Literally the most disillusioned and frustrated I have been with the politics of this country.
Bits N Pieces
Member
That's going to be really interesting to see how it plays out. I thought I wouldn't see another independence referendum in my lifetime.
Cameron may have handed it to the SNP on a plate.
isn't that politics though? as wrong as it is personalities will always play a huge part in the electorates eyes... I remember reading the retirement speech for William Hague and one reporter noted he would of been the best PM the country would of ever had if he could of somehow transplanted some of that intelligence and thinking into some sort of personality...
Stupid as it is, the human psyche will always revert to 'don't like him' 'ohh I like him' type of mantra
Just look at the AV referendum as case in point, you had at the time the most toxic politician (Nick Clegg) running it....and he duly got a trouncing, and I suspect there were mass amounts of people who did not even understand what it was, they just knew Nick Clegg was the villain
QuicheFontaine
Member
Not bad, stuck a tenner on LEAVE with odds of 3.4
I think they'll shorten a bit after the BoJo announcement.
That doesn't really answer my question about the 'moral hazard' in giving an exiting country 'the same or better' as an EU member on issues like trade in a bilateral arrangement between the euro-bloc and the UK.
On that side note though, as you raise it, I'm not an economist but I've read reams of commentary on the particular benefit the euro alone has brought to countries like Germany, nevermind the common market. I'm not sure it's a commonly held belief that these countries would be doing just as well had the EU not existed.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Locked