• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Macquarie Report on NX: "Coming next week" (Take with a grain of salt)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Then you lack a very obvious understanding of both Wii U and 3DS's faults. A Nintendo product will not sell at $300 unless it has just as many games and features as the PS4. I mean the only reason why they got the 3DS to sell was because they slashed the price by $80 early on.

And later increased it to almost launch price with new models like the XL. If the 3DS had a better launch lineup it has sold better at launch, the price was not a problem.
 

MacTag

Banned
He's pretty much correct.

Either way though, my money is still on $250 based on what we know and comparing similar devices.

It isn't revisionist. The price cut came with a predictable short-lived spike in sales, but it wasn't until the holiday season of 2011 when both Mario games launched that the system actually gained its legs and began selling respectable numbers on a month-to-month basis.

Pretty much. It was the triple combo (price reduction, Mario 3D Land, and Mario Kart 7) that pushed the 3DS into respectable sales. All three played a role.
That's undervaluing the price cut's effect quite a bit tbh. It essentially stopped the freefall 3DS sales were experiencing single handedly, during the summer season of all times, and allowed software to take off that snuck in before the Mario holidays (like Senran Kagura for example). It wasn't a short lived spike, it was the start of viability.
 

Trike

Member
And later increased it to almost launch price with new models like the XL. If the 3DS had a better launch lineup it has sold better at launch, the price was not a problem.

There is a difference in a high price and paying a premium for a deluxe version. Everyone is used to paying more for something bigger. But the 3DS was too much at launch. The poor lineup certainly didn't help, but better launch games wouldn't have justified the entry cost.
 

Malus

Member
$300-$350 seems pretty cheap. I mean if we're looking at hardware that's in the same ballpark as a PS4/XB1 that's been shrunken down to a handheld format. That price just tells me that it's going to be a good handheld but mediocre at home. Of course based on speculation.

Are a lot of people interested in paying a premium to get cutting edge handheld graphics? I dunno. If it's $350 I'd much rather it be a console with truly competitive graphics. I imagine a lot of handheld owners are just looking for a cheap machine to play games on and don't care much for graphics in the first place either.

Plus we don't even know how much the rumored machine costs to make. Some people are assuming that making a handheld with Wii U to Xbone level graphics will cost a ton by comparing it to 3DS but times are different.
 
smh at people that believe a reveal two months before launch is at all plausible

I could honestly see it.

- Some basic NX information on the 26th of this month
- A big info blowout in early January

If it releases in late March, that's essentially three months to heavily market the device pre-launch.
 

Scum

Junior Member
Ahhh. Anihawk has graced the thread with his/her presence. Always enjoy reading your thoughts on NCL's antics. Looking forward to BG&E2, eh?
 
Remember when we were so sure NX would be out this year. We all thought it'd be November 2016 and there's no way Nintendo would leave us this long with no information. Good times.
 
I could honestly see it.

- Some basic NX information on the 26th of this month
- A big info blowout in early January

If it releases in late March, that's essentially three months to heavily market the device pre-launch.

Nah, launch details can wait until January, but there needs to be a proper hardware/software reveal within a few weeks of the 26th.
 
Nah, launch details can wait until January, but there needs to be a proper hardware/software reveal within a few weeks of the 26th.

If a 2016 unveiling happens and it's not this month, I think early December would be the best opportunity. November seems like such bad timing for a big new announcement.
 
I mean I get that Gaf is mostly an enthusiast boarded with members that have enough disposable income to buy whatever they want at whatever price they want but to a lot of people, especially kids and teenagers, price makes a huge difference. I was in high school and didn't have a job at the time when I got my 3DS in late 2011 so not having to scrape together an extra $80 meant a sale from me and I'm not the only one in that regard. It's pretty obvious that massive price cut helped the 3DS significantly. 3D Land and Mario Kart helped but the price truly made the life or death difference.

So you're choosing to back up your argument with anecdotal evidence? How about you take a look back at the actual sales data and then get back to us.

The fact of the matter is that 3DS sales only really picked up at the first holiday when big games released.
 

spekkeh

Banned
unnamed4alux.gif
NX to be revealed in 2019 confirmed.
 

jmizzal

Member
Not in 2017



The only thing we'll get from the investor meeting is the reveal year and if there's a delay or not.

Even if its delayed I believe they will give real info on the NX at the investors meeting, because if its delayed I doubt it will be a long delay to Fall 2017, it would be more like Spring 2017.

They cant wait til fall 2017, they said the delay on showing the NX was due to them wanting games ready, no reason for them to not have games ready to show 6 months later and ready to release a year later.
 
So you're choosing to back up your argument with anecdotal evidence? How about you take a look back at the actual sales data and then get back to us.

The fact of the matter is that 3DS sales only really picked up at the first holiday when big games released.



At 250 dollars, it was doomed. It's foolish to imagine the price drop was just because Nintendo needed something to fill th gap for only 4 months. This huge price drop had a lot of consequences on Nintendo. The week of the price drop, 3DS sold 196 000 units in Japan alone. And you actually believe price wasn't a big issue ? If software was the big problem, Nintendo would've been able to wait 3 months before MK7 and 3D Land gets released.


Heck before these two released, it raised the baseline of 3DS sales from 20~30k to 50~70k.
 

yyr

Member
If a 2016 unveiling happens and it's not this month, I think early December would be the best opportunity. November seems like such bad timing for a big new announcement.

Waiting until December would be a mistake IMO.

Black Friday is at the end of November. PS4 and X1 discounts will be everywhere. PSVR and PS4 Pro will both be available. Some folks might choose to wait for Scorpio, but nobody will be saying "oh, I'll wait for the new Nintendo" if they don't even care to announce what the hell it is.

It's bad enough that Nintendo is missing this entire holiday season, falling further behind while folks snap up the more powerful competition. They have to convince at least a few people to NOT buy them and wait for NX.
 

AzaK

Member
$300-$350 seems pretty cheap. I mean if we're looking at hardware that's in the same ballpark as a PS4/XB1 that's been shrunken down to a handheld format. That price just tells me that it's going to be a good handheld but mediocre at home. Of course based on speculation.

But we're not. We're looking at something about 1/4-1/3 XB1 Gflops.
They screwed up the unveiling of the wii u and have proven to make the same mistakes over and over.

I hope they don't fuck it up, but I wouldn't be surprised AT ALL if they do...

Yeah it's become a bit of a joke with them promising X for a new system and then doing the opposite of X. Namely, solving the launch software issue.
 

Anth0ny

Member
Waiting until December would be a mistake IMO.

Black Friday is at the end of November. PS4 and X1 discounts will be everywhere. PSVR and PS4 Pro will both be available. Some folks might choose to wait for Scorpio, but nobody will be saying "oh, I'll wait for the new Nintendo" if they don't even care to announce what the hell it is.

It's bad enough that Nintendo is missing this entire holiday season, falling further behind while folks snap up the more powerful competition. They have to convince at least a few people to NOT buy them and wait for NX.

But you see Nintendo does not see Sony and Microsoft as competition

🌚
 

Oregano

Member
If a 2016 unveiling happens and it's not this month, I think early December would be the best opportunity. November seems like such bad timing for a big new announcement.

Well if Nintendo cared about the perfect time to announce it then they should have announced it last month after Sony totally botched their PS4 Slim/Pro conference and the high from Super Mario Run was still in effect.

EDIT:

But we're not. We're looking at something about 1/4-1/3 XB1 Gflops.

We might be looking at something closer to half. Still a big difference but not quite as much.
 
Waiting until December would be a mistake IMO.

Black Friday is at the end of November. PS4 and X1 discounts will be everywhere. PSVR and PS4 Pro will both be available. Some folks might choose to wait for Scorpio, but nobody will be saying "oh, I'll wait for the new Nintendo" if they don't even care to announce what the hell it is.

It's bad enough that Nintendo is missing this entire holiday season, falling further behind while folks snap up the more powerful competition. They have to convince at least a few people to NOT buy them and wait for NX.

Well, if they're going to reveal in November, it definitely needs to be within the first week.

Well if Nintendo cared about the perfect time to announce it then they should have announced it last month after Sony totally botched their PS4 Slim/Pro conference and the high from Super Mario Run was still in effect.

Perhaps. Maybe they weren't ready to deliver a great presentation though. I'm totally fine waiting if it means we get a killer unveiling of the new platform.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Isn't Wii U their only product that launched that expensive? Not adjusting for inflation, that is.

This is also what my memory says. And this makes me wonder in what reality live the people who think this kind of price would fly. And not to understand what kind of perception shift is needed to make that kind of price successful when you played for so long in a different category.
 

udivision

Member
But you see Nintendo does not see Sony and Microsoft as competition

🌚

Your mom does.

Er, I mean, the parents of the target audience my hesitate to buy their children a console so soon after another. Not that the early adopters of the NX would mostly be children, but on some level there are sales Nintendo may be losing to the competition by virtue of the holiday season.
 

AzaK

Member
Don't worry, $300 is the absolute max unless there's a huge unknown gimmick or a bundled GPU dock (which could put it above PS4 and thus actually worth $350).

Give we're looking at about what, 300-500 (MAX) GFlops in the handheld. To get close to PS4 it'd have to be one hell of a dock; basically an XB1 in the dock. All that for $350-400?

Your mom does.

Er, I mean, the parents of the target audience my hesitate to buy their children a console so soon after another. Not that the early adopters of the NX would mostly be children, but on some level there are sales Nintendo may be losing to the competition by virtue of the holiday season.

They'll more than hesitate, they just won't do it. There's more important things for families to spend money on than multiple consoles.
 
It really is amazing how Nintendo didn't bother to speed up the timeline for NX even though Wii U was pretty much a failure from day 1.

This thing should have been out Holiday 2015. Nintendo better show something next week or I have no confidence in them meeting March 2017.
 

FZZ

Banned
Not gonna lie

I'm not even thinking it'll be announced next week, I mean there's always a chance but idk. I'm more content waiting for Nintendo's investor meeting

And if Kimishima says "we have no NX info to talk about or it will be talked about at a later date"

He can go fuck himself, that grandpa ass motherfucker
 

GamerJM

Banned
Really even if it is delayed I'm still hyped for a direct that tells us more about Nintendo 2017 3DS games.

The reason I'm most annoyed with Nintendo at this point is because I can't even plan my 2017 purchases yet because we don't know what they're releasing. If it's just 3DS games I'll probably buy some of those but I at least want to know their release schedule.
 

FZZ

Banned
If calling Kimishima old as fuck and telling him to go fuck himself is ban worthy

then ban me fam

I'm not out here organizing a movement to attack him. Haven't agreed with his leadership decisions at all, more Yamauchi than Iwata and not in the good way

edit: and don't take my posts that seriously smh
 
Give we're looking at about what, 300-500 (MAX) GFlops in the handheld. To get close to PS4 it'd have to be one hell of a dock; basically an XB1 in the dock. All that for $350-400?
I thought the theorical solution was to simply increase the clockspeed of the components when the machine is docked.

Btw, is the polygon rendering for the Tegra X1s 1 polygon per cycle or 2 polygons per cycle? I don't recall ATM.
 

Oregano

Member
Well, if they're going to reveal in November, it definitely needs to be within the first week.



Perhaps. Maybe they weren't ready to deliver a great presentation though. I'm totally fine waiting if it means we get a killer unveiling of the new platform.

I mean I guess so... but the NX was likely supposed to be out in 2016 and it's now meant to be out in five months. If they're not ready to show it off that probably means they have a problem anyway.

I think people might be expecting too much if they think Nintendo are going to knock it out of the park too. 3DS level reveal would be amazing at this point but I think people are expecting more than that even.
 

Anth0ny

Member
If calling Kimishima old as fuck and telling him to go fuck himself is ban worthy

then ban me fam

I'm not out here organizing a movement to attack him. Haven't agreed with his leadership decisions at all, more Yamauchi than Iwata and not in the good way

edit: and don't take my posts that seriously smh

The neogaf Nintendo community does not take kindly to your insults, good sir. 😑
 

Bronetta

Ask me about the moon landing or the temperature at which jet fuel burns. You may be surprised at what you learn.
That's some revisionist history right there.

It really isn't. Here's some sales data I pulled up from Wikipedia (its sourced from Nintendo's financial statements so its accurate)
Date Japan America Other Total Increase
2011-03-31 1.06 1.32 1.23 3.61 N/A
2011-06-30 1.27 1.43 1.63 4.32 19.7%
2011-09-30 2.13 2.13 2.42 6.68 54.6%
2011-12-31 4.66 5.47 4.91 15.03 125.0%

The price drop happened in July which is the beginning of Q3. As you can see the sales definitely did increase in Q3 (54.6% so sales doubled from previous quarter)

3D Land and Mario Kart 7 launched in Q4 2011, November 3 and December 1 respectively. As you can see, Q4 sales were once again over double Q3 sales. Q4 had the biggest growth.

So yes, the price drop increased sales but MK7 and 3D Land had a much larger impact on an increase in sales, the snowball effect if you will.

Edit: Chart formatting is messed up no matter how many spaces I added so I bolded the totals for each quarter.
 

bomblord1

Banned
Well if Nintendo cared about the perfect time to announce it then they should have announced it last month after Sony totally botched their PS4 Slim/Pro conference and the high from Super Mario Run was still in effect.

EDIT:



We might be looking at something closer to half. Still a big difference but not quite as much.

A stock pascal tegra is close to 2/3 just counting flops and not taking architectural advantages (on the side of the tegra) into account.
 

MuchoMalo

Banned
That's undervaluing the price cut's effect quite a bit tbh. It essentially stopped the freefall 3DS sales were experiencing single handedly, during the summer season of all times, and allowed software to take off that snuck in before the Mario holidays (like Senran Kagura for example). It wasn't a short lived spike, it was the start of viability.

I'm not saying that the price cut wasn't important, but it needed software to back it up before it could do anything meaningful.

Give we're looking at about what, 300-500 (MAX) GFlops in the handheld. To get close to PS4 it'd have to be one hell of a dock; basically an XB1 in the dock. All that for $350-400?

There's already a graphics card available for $100 with more performance than PS4's GPU. Granted, it's an AMD card, but Nvidia has a competitor on the way in a few weeks. You have the dock, a fan, and a PSU to add. You can definitely manage all of that for $400 or even less. This is before considering that there's a ~10% advantage in favor of Nvidia when looking at performance between an AMD GPU and an Nvidia GPU with the same compute performance on paper.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
It really isn't. Here's some sales data I pulled up from Wikipedia (its sourced from Nintendo's financial statements so its accurate)


The price drop happened in July which is the beginning of Q3. As you can see the sales definitely did increase in Q3 (54.6% so sales doubled from previous quarter)

3D Land and Mario Kart 7 launched in Q4 2011, November 3 and December 1 respectively. As you can see, Q4 sales were once again over double Q3 sales. Q4 had the biggest growth.

So yes, the price drop increased sales but MK7 and 3D Land had a much larger impact on an increase in sales, the snowball effect if you will.

Edit: Chart formatting is messed up no matter how many spaces I added so I bolded the totals for each quarter.

Someone doesn't understand how holiday season works for Nintendo.

Edit:

Check this doc, it has a nice breakdown on quarters for 2013, as an example:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2013/130131e.pdf

3Q for fiscal year (edit for Bronetta: in the doc) is Q4 for calendar year (Oct-Dec).
 

Instro

Member
It really isn't. Here's some sales data I pulled up from Wikipedia (its sourced from Nintendo's financial statements so its accurate)


The price drop happened in July which is the beginning of Q3. As you can see the sales definitely did increase in Q3 (54.6% so sales doubled from previous quarter)

3D Land and Mario Kart 7 launched in Q4 2011, November 3 and December 1 respectively. As you can see, Q4 sales were once again over double Q3 sales. Q4 had the biggest growth.

So yes, the price drop increased sales but MK7 and 3D Land had a much larger impact on an increase in sales, the snowball effect if you will.

Edit: Chart formatting is messed up no matter how many spaces I added so I bolded the totals for each quarter.

I think that's too broad a view. Q4 is always big, particularly for Nintendo. If you look at the monthly NPDs from prior to the drop, compared to post drop, it was selling 2-3x as much after the drop. Similar numbers can be found in the weekly Media Create threads. Yes the holidays, and holiday software, had a big impact, but people denying that price was a factor are ignoring the facts.
 

L Thammy

Member
I can't believe that multiple people are still acting like the price was the main problem on the 3DS back when its big games were Steel Diver and Pilotwings Resort. Do you think the price dropped and people were all like "oh man now I can finally try out this Face Raiders I've been hearing so much about"?
 

maxcriden

Member
I can't believe that multiple people are still acting like the price was the main problem on the 3DS back when its big games were Steel Diver and Pilotwings Resort. Do you think the price dropped and people were all like "oh man now I can finally try out this Face Raiders I've been hearing so much about"?

I agree with you that the lack of desirable product was a major factor--the biggest, for sure--but the price point hurt them as well.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
I can't believe that multiple people are still acting like the price was the main problem on the 3DS back when its big games were Steel Diver and Pilotwings Resort. Do you think the price dropped and people were all like "oh man now I can finally try out this Face Raiders I've been hearing so much about"?

Sure, if you ignore the big increase in sales that came immediately with the price drop you can say the price didn't matter.

3ds was a gaming device that got a very good reception up until the price was announced. It was a good product. An attractive one. With a foreseeable good future. Just launched at a price that was considered by the market to be too big even if the product was good.

The games capitalised on an already good basis and a good price.

The good games never did anything for Wii U.
 

Bronetta

Ask me about the moon landing or the temperature at which jet fuel burns. You may be surprised at what you learn.
Someone doesn't understand how holiday season works for Nintendo.

Looking at the dates, you should be able to understand its a calendar year and not a fiscal year.
 

L Thammy

Member
Sure, if you ignore the big increase in sales that came immediately with the price drop you can say the price didn't matter.

3ds was a gaming device that got a very good reception up until the price was announced. It was a good product. An attractive one. With a foreseeable good future. Just launched at a price that was considered by the market to be too big even if the product was good.

The games capitalised on an already good basis and a good price.

The games never did anything for Wii U.

There are going to be people to buy just about anything when the price goes down. The sales immediately following the price drop don't tell us anything about the problems the 3DS was actually facing. If a bag of chips goes on sale then people will rush to buy it, it doesn't mean that the bag is normally overpriced. The question was whether the sales growth from the price drop was sustainable and whether it set the 3DS back on course. The price drop did neither of those things, but the games did.

I'll agree with you that games didn't save the Wii U, but the Wii U had greater problems that went beyond those that the 3DS had. Trying to act like the Wii U not selling because it got games while the 3DS did is deliberately disingenuous; the 3DS has much better third party support and its "gimmicks" are much less intrusive.
 

NathanS

Member
They'll more than hesitate, they just won't do it. There's more important things for families to spend money on than multiple consoles.

Yeah I don't understand releasing it so soon after the holiday season, even if they announce it now with a huge marketing blitz and a ton of great games announced parents will not hold off on buying a console for the holiday season if that's really what they want to get their kids, and then expecting them to buy another only months later?
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top Bottom