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Betting time: Do you think the Switch will be a success?

Will the Switch be a success?


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I know the pricing sucks, but I think to make it a hit it needs games that can capture beyond the Wii U audience. I don't think the switch has that, at all.
 
I think it'll do well in Japan. It's clearly a Japan-focused console with a library that really focuses on gamers in that area. I haven't seen anything besides Mario/Mario Kart that is a huge title for the West (Zelda debatable). Old (and inferior) ports shouldn't be brought to the forefront as big titles for a new system launch, especially when other offerings are delayed.

I don't think it'll do well in the West though. Wouldn't mind eating crow when the Pokemon and other major 3DS franchises come to it, but even then 3DS wasn't a wild success, and didn't hit it off with gamers until it hit $169 and had several major titles.
 

Zemm

Member
It has one of the worst launch Windows I've ever seen, you'd have to go back to the 90's to see one as bad. That and the price means it's going to get very bad for Nintendo. Ambassador 2.0 incoming.
 
For what it's worth I think if they had Mario Odessey ready for launch, been $50 lower and the Online subs message has been much better than 'lol have a free NES or SNES game for a month', GAFs overall hype-ometer would be beating a lot louder.

Literally all I wanted.

Hopefully it's $249.99 or less by Christmas, when Odyssey is out.
 

mackattk

Member
I don't think it is going up against those systems really though. I mean yes if one was to compare and contrast switch will have comparatively less market share but they seem to be diverging more in to their own niche generation by generation. They can pull it round


Yeah I just don't know what the target audience is.. The switch will be a great secondary system, but that seems to be all of what Nintendo home consoles are these days. You get them for the Nintendo IP's and buy third party on your more powerful consoles. I am really hoping the Switch will be a success, but it just seems like they are doubling down on the Wii U here.

They really needed Super Mario Odyssey within the month of release. Zelda is certainly something to get excited for, but for anyone who is on the fence and already has a Wii U (like myself) will buy the game for the Wii U and I will just hold off on purchasing a Switch until much later.
 

Elios83

Member
No this seems an other Wii U to me. That means zero appeal outside of the usual group of Nintendo fans willing to buy a console just to play Mario and Zelda. Price is not there, hardware power is not there, third party support is not there, battery life is poor (although most people are going to use it docked), they can't ask people to pay for online when they are 10 years behind the competition on this front.
Best case scenario I see for this product is a Gamecube level of success.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
Nintendoomed lol... actually is it?

The $299 models are almost sold out online less than 12 hours after start of sales.... thats only a few weeks quicker than it took for the ps4 for what it is worth..

Launch sales don't mean much in the long term. Wii U did well at launch too.
 
From what's been shown including pricing I can't see it happening. It will sell well to the faithful and curious at launch and there seems very little in its lineup to see it through the quieter months. It'll pick up again at Xmas with Mario and die off again until Nintendo decides to release another of its big franchises some months later. We'll see lots of WiiU ports to fill in gaps but it's the same old same old; little Western third party support and bare bones releases of new titles from Nintendo.

It'll sell a bit better than the WiiU if Japan carries it as a handheld and games support but I can't see its appeal beyond the core in the West.

Unfortunately the Switch just feels very WiiU 2 and Nintendo hasn't learned from any of its mistakes but is adding to them more so.

There seems little to no reason for anyone who didn't buy a WiiU to get a Switch. It feels deja vu and the games line up is very worrying with what's announced (or rather not) thus far. The motion control casual market moved on and another tablet (albeit truly portable this time) wasn't hot first time.

If it is to succeed it'll be down to Japan taking to it as a handheld (but Nintendo will completely have to kill the 3DS) and Pokemon helping it in the West. But it's hella expensive. It's going to have to have a second wind to succeed like the DS/3DS. I don't see how it'll sell well with that lineup and price in its first year or so.
 

Sponge

Banned
Nope. Not in the first year, anyway. It'll be the same situation as the 3DS where early adopters will pay a high price and once a price cut and Pokemon hit the console it'll pick up steam.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
I think it'll do well in Japan. It's clearly a Japan-focused console with a library that really focuses on gamers in that area. I haven't seen anything besides Mario/Mario Kart that is a huge title for the West (Zelda debatable). Old (and inferior) ports shouldn't be brought to the forefront as big titles for a new system launch, especially when other offerings are delayed.

I don't think it'll do well in the West though. Wouldn't mind eating crow when the Pokemon and other major 3DS franchises come to it, but even then 3DS wasn't a wild success, and didn't hit it off with gamers until it hit $169 and had several major titles.

If it was Japan focused it would be much cheaper.
 

Bgamer90

Banned
It has one of the worst launch Windows I've ever seen, you'd have to go back to the 90's to see one as bad. That and the price means it's going to get very bad for Nintendo. Ambassador 2.0 incoming.

Wii U's launch line-up was far worse. You don't have to go back that far at all.
 
I agree, but there's already 50+ million of those households that already have a PS4/X1.

Like the Wii U vs PS360, the value proposition simply isn't there to act as an "upgrade" for people already gaming on existing hardware. Worse, online play has a domino effect, so more popular consoles attract more online- leaning players due to their larger player bases.

The audience for Switch is

- fans of dedicated gaming handhelds
- diehard Nintendo fans
- the last remnants of console motion gamers

All of which are shrinking gradually, but may be enough to eke out one last decent seller.
 
Nintendoomed lol... actually is it?

The $299 models are almost sold out online less than 12 hours after start of sales.... thats only a few weeks quicker than it took for the ps4 for what it is worth..

Nintendo's notorious for under-shipping.

Their products "selling out" doesn't mean they're selling well.
 

weekev

Banned
Im confident it will be a success. The portability and randomness of some of the games will get good word of mouth. The price point will be a sticking point but I expect a price drop before Christmas. Im gonna predict 40-50 million so a modest success.
 

KJRS_1993

Member
There are plenty of third party games that are better than Nintendo games. Stop glorifying their shit like they're divine. It's annoying and not true. Slobbering their knob only makes you sloppy.

Are you telling me that Mario Party 17 wasn't a sublime experience? Dat Nintendo Magic.
 

Trago

Member
You need compelling games to sell your hardware, and Zelda isn't enough to tide over any kind of momentum over months. It's crazy that we waited so long for this.
 
It amazes me people still think "Sold out fast at Retailers" is any kind of gauge for long-term success. Especially with Nintendo who are famous for under shipping. PSVR sold ot quick too, so did Oculus.
 
You can already get a PS4 slim bundle or Xbox One S bundle for $299. Soon they'll be $249. If they don't remain competitive with pricing/bundling, they're in big trouble. They're already way behind with third-party support and they no longer have the advantage of having free online. Which probably means people are less likely to buy it as a secondary console. Who wants to pay an online subscription to two or three different services? The launch lineup is not great and the accessories are WAY too expensive.

Right now - I'm going to say no, it will not be a success but I think that can change in a few years if they're smart with pricing and redesigns and consider releasing a portable only & console only versions to get the price down.

I am looking forward to Pokemon, Xenoblade 2 and Mario. I'm not pre-ordering a Switch, but will probably pick one up when I can buy one off the shelves at Best Buy.
 
As someone who enjoyed tank! tank! tank! i can safely predict this game will be shit

source.gif

If this was a Warioware game, it would've been less weird.
 
I want to write this down to quote myself in the future in case I'm right.

I think this thing will be enormously successful in Japan. The hardware design, the game lineup, the just-enough-battery-for-a-commute-to-and-from-work, it all speaks for a hardware designed with the Japanese market in mind. And unlike previous console unveil presentations, this one was clearly Japan-first.

Maybe the Switch will find a niche elsewhere but it would be playing second fiddle to whatever Microsoft and Sony have going forward in the rest of the world.

Personally I'd just like it to be smaller. It's just too big. I don't know how it would work with the joycons, but I want something Vita sized, preferably with non-detachable controllers that I can still dock for TV use. So I'll be waiting. Mario looks cool but I can get Zelda on Wii U.

I dont think it will sell too well after the launch is out of the way.

It's basically a $400-ish system when you add a game and tax.

The Wii was $275-ish with game and tax

That's a huge difference for a large amount of people.

And if you add in the cost of an HD-DVD player and a year of Xbox Live the 360 is actually more expensive than a PS3!

This line of arguing doesn't really stand up to any scrutiny.
 

Jacknapes

Member
In it's current state, and if things don't change it'll be a flop. Not in terms of WiiU sales, but this will hurt them.

I want it to be a success, but i have a feeling it won't be.
 
There are plenty of third party games that are better than Nintendo games. Stop glorifying their shit like they're divine. It's annoying and not true. Slobbering their knob only makes you sloppy.
The only developer I can think of that even comes close to the polish, quality, and consistency of Nintendo first party is Blizzard. Which developers do you think are better?
 

Juno

LIAR and a FELON
No, Die hard Nintendo fans are trying to do damage control when not understanding the system is not fucking available for preorder on amazon right now. It's available at Bestbuy, Gamestop and target currently if there' s more someone update me.

The reason it's on the chart is it's being viewed and people are putting their email notifications in to get notified when it becomes available which is traffic that I guess amazon's system tracks.

Yeah, I'm struggling to believe a limited/collectors edition is currently the 3rd best selling videogame product on Amazon... and then 4th as a different SKU!

Doubt they even are going to have many allocated, so it doesn't really add up!
 
I agree that GAF feels very strongly one way or the other about things, and it does not represent the sentiment of the greater market.

I think their biggest mistake was adding all this great technology to the joy cons mean that your price went up by a lot. To the point where we see where those controllers are priced at and that makes me understand more why it's priced at $300. They know they had hype in the sales and had too much tech also to sell it at a loss, so here we are at $300. This one's up on the air.

I absolutely agree 110% with the point on joy-con controllers and the tech in their unnecessarily raising the cost.

The Joy-con is the second "gimmick" to this thing that is going to weight it down. They also did not explain well enough why we should care about that expensive tech.

I truly believe the hybrid approach is a good one, but not at $300
 

TrueBlue

Member
Probably not, if only because of the price.

I think it will be fine in terms of games. Mario, Zelda, Splatoon and Xenoblade are all slated for the first year, and we still have E3 to consider.
 
There are plenty of third party games that are better than Nintendo games. Stop glorifying their shit like they're divine. It's annoying and not true. Slobbering their knob only makes you sloppy.

I wouldn't necessarily interpret him saying Nintendo games are actually better, but the experiences are unique.

Why should a statement like that cause so much offense, anyway?
 
I think Splatoon 2 is going to be the big test. Obviously, everyone who played the original is going to flock to the Switch to play it. Beyond that, who knows.
 

TheOfficeMut

Unconfirmed Member
The only developer I can think of that even comes close to the polish, quality, and consistency of Nintendo first party is Blizzard. Which developers do you think are better?

I'm not going to entertain this stupid ass idea. No 3rd party games being of quality like Nintendo games, which is untrue and an insult to people who actually aren't part of Nintendo and develop games, is a dumb thing to say.

I wouldn't necessarily interpret him saying Nintendo games are actually better, but the experiences are unique.

Why should a statement like that cause so much offense, anyway?

Because it suggests that 3rd party developers don't put forth as much effort as Nintendo developers. Glorifying Nintendo games like they're the only ones that exude quality is silly. I'd argue that the only thing that makes Nintendo games special is the fact that many of the IPs are very old and positively influence a person's psychology when thinking about them.
 
For me, I view the Switch as a failure of a concept with how Nintendo operates. To me, the problem with the Switch is it wants to please everybody, but by doing so they'll please nobody. Making a portable/home console hybrid at a reasonable price with good specs and good battery life is asking for disaster. And what we got is what I'd consider mediocore as hell. Poor specs, poor battery life, and it's bulky as hell. If Nintendo focused on making purely a portable console, the could've made it less bulky with far better battery life. If Nintendo focused on making it purely a home console, they could've cut costs significantly by dumping the screen, then using that to put in better hardware and not have to waste time with the Joycons and just made the Pro controller standard. The end result is is a system that does nothing truly well and a lot mediocre to poorly. And I wouldn't even call its portability as something it does really well, as it's not exactly a small system. I doubt it'll fit into many jacket pockets, ignoring entirely pants pockets. And the battery life is not very good at all. 3 hours for Zelda? Not a fan. Would've been fine if they could've packed better hardware and a better battery but then it might be a $500 system. But Nintendo's not the kind of company that would sell a product that expensive.

I really wish they just would've focused on either making a new home console or making a new portable. Make it the best system they could create at a certain price point, put as many bells and whistles as possible and make it a true home console experience.

I'm sure Nintendo's idea is Zelda will carry the system for the first couple of months, then as games trickle out through the holiday season, like Splatoon through Mario, more and more gamers will be looking to buy the system. Unfortunately, I just don't see enough. Where's Star Fox? Where's Metroid? Where's Kirby? Where's Pokemon? I'm happier with the 3rd party support, but I just don't know if it's enough.

Essentially, the next 12 months are crucial for Nintendo, and I'm not exactly super excited. I am worried for them as a company. We're at a point where this may be the last generation of traditional home video game consoles. We could be looking at the PS4 Pro and Scorpio as the norm. We could be looking at upgradeable home consoles. This really feels like Nintendo's last shot at a home console. And if Zelda, for whatever reason, isn't the masterpiece we expect it to be, they're fucked beyond belief. I am almost positive it will be at least an excellent game, if not fantastic to masterpiece level, but if it isn't as good as we expect it to be, that's a big fucking problem.
 
People thought the DS, 3DS, Wii, and Wii U were going to be failures too. They all got a ton of internet hate. Only the Wii U ended up being one. Their track record makes me think it's more likely to succeed than fail.
 

MarioLinkSamus

not a fan of Ashley Madison. Digs her website tho
  • It's already sold out online at GameStop, Amazon, Best Buy and Target (neon version).
  • It seems to have greater appeal to ALL audiences than its competitors (larger pool of customers).
  • More than 80 games are currently in development.


It may struggle out of the gates, but it will have legs.
 

UV-6

Member
I think it'll do better than the Wii U but apart from early adopters and Nintendo fans, I just can't see it appealing to anyone else.
 

Papacheeks

Banned
I know it's super not relevant but I literally spit my coffee out:

Harambe likes Nintendo guys/gals! From Best Buy site, under reviews. LOL.

harambe_like_nintendo.png
 

W-00

Member
My reaction to the Switch turned negative when I saw the recommended selling price ($300), but if it had the software I could see it surviving and doing respectably even at that price.

I have seen nothing to convince me that it has the software to justify that price. Given the amount of time spent talking about Suda51's game, which didn't have any video, I'm thinking they just don't have anything better to show off. As for Mario, Xenoblade, Splatoon, and Zelda all coming out in the first year... I remember the delays on the Wii U. Nintendo really should have been less focused on secrecy and more focused on getting dev kits out to anyone who wanted to develop for the Switch.

As it stands, I expect the Switch to be DOA. But since it's region-free, I might still pick one up when I can get a good deal on one. Or, if we see more signs of Vita-supporting third parties migrating to the Switch (NIS is a decent start, provided that they continue support), I might not wait for a sale.

It wouldn't be the first time I bought a dead handheld with almost no first-party support that was bolstered by Japanese third-party games. *Hugs Vita.*
 
Launch sales don't mean much in the long term. Wii U did well at launch too.

And yes, if the PS3, Wii U and Xbox One have taught us nothing else, diehard fans (and scalpers) will buy anything in great numbers at launch no matter how ridiculous the pricing. But you need more than them to have success outside of the very brief launch window. MS was dead set on keeping Kinect and the $499 pricepoint...until Kinect Sports Rivals flopped and TitanFall managed only a minor uptick in sales.

I'm sure Nintendo will be making some "adjustments" to the Switch value before the end of the year. Along with a few apologies.
 
Its been less than 12 hours since pre orders went live and there are already 1650 listings up on ebay selling a switch, goddamn. Averaging around $450 which is a bit weird, after seller fees (13%) and taxes you are looking at $50-70 profit there.

Not many selling though, almost all the ones that have actually sold were Zelda Master editions which have been confirmed to be limited quality and once its gone its gone.
 
if it had come at $250 or even better $199, it would have been a guaranteed success though profit margins would have been low or negative.

At $300, I think, if they can polish the whole click for ads, it still has a good chance. This one's definitely going to come down to marketing.
 

Bolivar687

Banned
I do not want to antagonize anyone who rightfully supports Nintendo but I see 9-10 million lifetime.

It will underperform the Wii U as more diehards continue to become disenchanted with the brand. It's not a viable handheld replacement when it costs as much as a Full HD console, most people will see it and use it as the Wii U+.

Nintendo needs to be raked over the coals for the third party support. I want to play Infinite Warfare and The Division Year 2 on the go. I'm afraid Nintendo would rather pack up its bags and close up shop before they ever cater to third parties like MS and Sony.

I sincerely hope I'm wrong and this post makes it to the wall of shame one year later.
 

SmokedMeat

Gamer™
Wii U's launch line-up was far worse. You don't have to go back that far at all.

Wii U launched with games. Day one game's, not wait for a few months "window" game's.

Tekken Tag Tournament 2, Blops 2, ZombiU, Nintendoland, and a Mario platformer!

Switch has nothing. I can't remember a launch this bad in all of my years in the hobby!
 
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