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BO 07•01-03•16 - Tarzan-a-doodoo can't Purge Dory, BFG = BOMBA FAIL GOOSE-EGG

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We have already had 6-7 low budget horror/thriller movies hit wide release this year. I'm sure that number will be well over a dozen by the end of the year. Most of them just don't stick in people's memory more than a week or two.

There's another coming this month - Lights Out ($5 million).
 
Yeah, Tarzan flopping is an absolute non-shocker to me.

It's sandwiched between Dory and Pets. It had disaster written all over it.

Yeah. Kinda feels like it was sent out to die (esp. since Dory is also from Disney/Pixar), ya know? It probably would had done moderately better as a fall release.

Yep. Compared to animated animal hi-jinks - especially one of those being a sequel to a super popular film - a film with a nice, gentle giant probably isn't likely to win out for most people.

It's definitely a film that seems weighted to those who have fond memories of the book, as none of the trailers I saw for it made it seem like a film I'd be thrilled to see if I was a kid.

Speaking as one has fond memories of the book, I can't disagree here. Doesn't help that Spielberg and co. have (according to reviews) moved away from replicating the book's darker aspects (i.e. the other giants) in their film adaptation, so the overall result reads as pretty light-hearted (even saccharine, depending on who you ask) in its tone and presentation.
 

kswiston

Member
Yeah, Tarzan flopping is an absolute non-shocker to me.

I dont really think that its ipening counts as a flop. It opened higher than Pacific Rim, and beat tracking by about 50%. This is pretty much a best case scenario for a film that could have been a Jupiter Ascending level disaster.
 
Out of all the Roald Dahl books I've read (Charlie & the Chocolate Factory, Charlie & the Great Glass Elevator, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Witches and the BFG) the BFG always seemed the hardest of all them properties to adapt.

And for people asking for the BFG's notoriety, getting your parents to read you Roald Dahl's books as you're going to sleep when you're young was the norm here.
 

starmud

Member
Disney really sent a few projects to die this year.

Alice, even for being a mediocre sequel was audience friendly and shouldn't have been a summer release...

The BFG needed a better campaign and time table, i still think it would have done better in the fall...

Sadly I think Petes dragon is next,
 
Spielberg is a great director, but his recent outputs are not appealing, not a fan of historical dramas. Wish he go back making movies like Minority Report
 
The title never made sense to me when watching the trailers.

Why is he called the "Big friendly giant" when he is clearly the smallest giant?
 
The art style that Spielberg uses for his CG films is just too damn creepy, I don't understand why he keeps going back to it

Did any of the previous uncanny valley films do well?
 
I want to see the BFG because of Spielberg, but damn does the movie artistically look gross and cheap. It just has that generic family movie look to it, it's weirdly throwing me off and just repelling my interest. I'd rather see it over Tarzan, but I think my friends may option to see Tarzan instead so I'm not convinced I'll even catch this in theaters.

I still need to see Finding Dory, and plan on seeing Swiss Army Man tomorrow.
 

EGM1966

Member
I love Dahl and BFG is a classic but I wouldn't sink $140 million into adapting it to a film.

I know Chocolate Factory did okay with relatively big budget but that's a really well known classic that can get by on name alone. BFG was clearly going to mystify the non-reading masses as a title.

I'll give it a watch as reviews seem solid although paint a picture of a film that works overall but has a number of flaws.
 

kswiston

Member
BO.com predicted 23M opening weekend for Tarzan, lol.
BO.com predicted 21M opening weekend for Purge, lol.
BO.com predicted 31M opening weekend for BFG, ahahahahaahaha

Facebook likes and Twitter tracking so scientific. Wow, them numbers. Wow ow ow.

You have been going on about this for around a year, typically only bringing it up when the numbers are significantly off.

Here is every prediction that boxoffice.com has made since the start of March, taken 1 week before release (42 films in all). I had to include estimates for the 4-Day takes for this weekend's films to match their 4-day predictions. Two of the estimates are official. Tarzan is mine, but I doubt it is off by more than 5%. Not enough to make any difference.

Code:
				BO OW prediction 1-week out		Actual Opening Weekend
Zootopia			$63M					$75M
London Has Fallen		$22M					$21.5M
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot		$10M					$7.5M
The Young Messaih		$7.5M					$3.5M
The Brothers Grimsby		$8M					$7M
10 Cloverfield Lane		$26M					$25M
Miracles from Heaven		$19M					$15M
Divergent Series: Allegent	$37M					$29M
My Big Fat Greek Wedding	$17.5M					$18M
Batman v Superman		$159M					$166M
God's Not Dead 2		$15M					$7.5M
Hardcore Henry			$10.5M					$5M
The Boss			$17.5M					$23.5M
Criminal			$8M					$6M
Barbershop: The Next Cut	$18M					$20M
The Jungle Book			$70M					$103M
The Huntsman: Winter's War	$28M					$19.5M
Ratchet & Clank			$7M					$5M
Mother's Day			$11M					$8.5M
Keanu				$20M					$9.5M
Captain America: Civil War	$213M					$179M
The Darkness			$5.5M					$5M
Money Monster 			$9.5M					$15M
The Nice Guys			$17M					$11M
Neighbours 2			$40M					$22M
The Angry Birds Movie		$42M					$38M
Alice: TtLG			$68M*					$33.5M
X-Men: Apocalypse		$95M*					$80M
Popstar				$8.5M					$4.5M
Me Before You			$18M					$18.5M
TMNT: Out of the Shadows	$42M					$35M
Now You See Me 2		$27M					$22M
Warcraft			$22M					$24M
The Conjuring 2			$38M					$40.5M
Central Intelligence		$35M					$35.5M
Finding Dory			$133M					$135M
The Shallows			$12M					$17M
Free State of Jones		$15M					$7.5M
Independence Day Resurgence	$50M					$41M
The Purge Election Year		$21M*					$34M est*
The Legend of Tarzan 		$23.5M*					$45M est*
The BFG				$31M*					$23.5M est*

*4-Day prediction

23 of 42 opening weekend predictions were within $5M
33 of 42 predictions were within $10M


Number of films that beat expectations by at least 50% - 3 (Money Monster, The Purge, and Tarzan)
Number of films that beat expecatations by at least 75% - 1 (Tarzan)

Number of films that were overpredicted by at least 50% - 8 (only 4 when the prediction was over $15M)

So 11 out of 42 predictions were significantly off.

If you want to discount the low grossing stuff that skew the results, 7 out of the 29 predictions of over $15M were significantly off. 16 of the 29 predictions were within 20% of the actual gross. The other 6 were somewhere in between.

If you know of public numbers that have a better hit to miss ratio than the above, let me know. Boxoffice.com's predictions have been on par or better than the tracking that Deadline quotes, and we have regular access to the predictions a lot earlier in most cases.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
That's a pretty good haul. I really liked the first one and hope to see the second one soon. Just wish they were allowed to have kept the original title lol

Same hahaha :p

There will most likely be a sequel based on China's gross solely.

Key markets in Europe, Mexico, Japan & South Korea haven't opened yet so it should achieve its predecessor's gross quite easily even with the domestic underperformance.
 

jmood88

Member
It's weird to me that so many people haven't heard of BFG. It's one of the few Roald Dahl books I haven't read but I knew the name/basics of the story and always thought that it was very well-known.
 
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