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[charlequin]

There are a few key facts that need to be taken into account here when we think about what Sony will do for their next console.

• Their high launch price fundamentally puts them on a longer timetable than previous generations. We know for certain now that launching at a price like $600 is a disaster -- Sony has only been able to position the PS3 as a successful console after firesale-like cuts from that initial price, and even now they're still riding noticeably above Microsoft in price. Since they have to aim much lower for a launch price next generation ($400 at the absolute highest, probably lower than that) they can't very well launch anything until PS3 is quite a bit lower -- and it'll probably take until 2012 for PS3 to be down to $150.
• Similarly, the high prices also hurt the possibility of adoption by a large segment of the community. Because people are still buying $400 systems today, there are fewer people who will want to invest immediately in next-gen when it does begin. Someone who jumps into PS3 today is not going to get their money's worth if the system is replaced (and killed, as all losing consoles are upon their successor's release) in three years.
• Game budgets have become high enough that cash outlay has outstripped system power as the biggest determinant of how good games look. Companies that can afford to spend the cash on AAA titles (either due to platform-holder subsidies or aggressive multiplatforming) make games that look amazing, but most companies need to cut back on content, aggressively reuse assets, or simply turn in games that are visually underwhelming or rely on tricks. Developers have already been failing as a result of this cost increase and raising the bar too high will just make the situation worse.
• Similarly, the time needed to develop games has increased. MGS4 took four years to develop; FF13 is leaning towards five. If PS3 is aimed at 2011, many developers will have only had time to create a single title before moving on to a new generation -- thereby losing a huge advantage of console development (the ability to reuse your tools and engine on later titles, letting you improve your polish and performance by building on a known platform.)
• The Wii's disruptive strategy has successfully disrupted the market. Wii is already weaker than existing systems and still sells like hotcakes. You can't compete with it just by launching a yet stronger system. To compete with it you really need a new approach altogether with a unique selling point to the broader market.
• This is a side point, but 2160p? Really? Really? :lol

If this news pans out, it means Sony has learned two lessons (don't charge $600 for a console, make a smaller hardware upgrade that reuses a familiar architecture) but made a big mistake on their overall strategy: the only problem with trying to stretch the PS3 out to a ten-year system is that Microsoft might launch a successor first, and there's no broader strategic benefit to Sony to trying to "beat" them to the punch instead of focusing their efforts on competing in the new marketplace Wii has opened up.

 

[Kccitystar]

I just hope it's ONE SKU next gen. None of this multiple "flavor of the month" stuff....and:

Faster BD drive
More RAM
Cell-optimized GPU
Improved OS

 

[Brimstone]

Sony and Nintendo will have a hard time competing with Microsoft if they make massively parallel game machines. The heart and soul of computer languages are serial in nature. To address that problem is a huge undertaking.


Building parallel computer chips like a GPU is a moderate challenge.

Creating an intuitive to program general purpose parallel platform is extremly hard.


J Allard has been correct all along.

 

[Mustaphadamus]

I don't see what the problem is with keeping the cell. I mean, isn't Toshiba/IBM or whoever still working on the cell, refining it, making it better? So why not put that newer version of cell in. Add more RAM, MAYBE a physics card in and dual Nvidia graphics cards (isn't Sony and Nvidia working together?). I mean the cell is a beast as it is. they are showing games that outshine the competition and they continue to improve as time goes on. So its not like the cell is some half assed piece of kit. Also as others have mentioned developers wont have the steep learning curve and that will surely cut down on some production cost. I also would say, dedicate a chip and RAM to online functionality i.e. voice, messaging, blah blah blah like the 360 has done. Besides, How much better can graphics really get? Heavy rain and a few others are approaching ridiculous levels as is. I don't think we need to see a totally new kraken level chip set to be able to peak our heads in and say hello to the uncanny valley.

just my two cents.

 

[Guy Legend]

Some people are defending Sony's 10 year life cycle mantra by saying it's ok that the PS4 launches and the PS3 continues on after. The problem is that the PS3 isn't the PS2. If the PS3 install base isn't that large by the time the PS4 hits, then third party companies may not be as supportive for the PS3 down the road. If Sony sticks with the cell processor, it probably makes it easier to develop games for both platforms, but who knows really how simmilar they would be.

With games now on a minimum 2 year development schedules, how many cycles of third party games will we get on the PS3 before they begin to shift? I really hope Sony isn't rushed to get their next system out, rather recoup their costs in the PS3 which is what I think most people including myself expected them to do. Unless it's 2012 at the very earliest, I don't want to see them race with MS to bring out the next gen console.

 

[Elios83]

IGN has their own article which is probably the most accurate so far:

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/914/914584p1.html

Impress Watch technology writer Hiroshige Goto has posted his latest "Weekly Overseas News" at the Japanese game and computing site. The subject, believe it or not, is PlayStation 4!

According to Goto, who doesn't cite any sources, Sony has started investigating the possibility of using the Cell Broadband Engine, the same CPU that powers the PS3, as a base for the new system and is currently seeking developer feedback. While it's possible that Sony will move away from the Cell, says Goto, Sony does appear at the moment to be moving towards an upgraded version of the current PS3 chipset as a basis for the next generation system.

The plan to use variants of Cell in future PlayStation iterations was always in place, explains Goto, which is why Sony invested so heavily in the chipset. However, while the use of the Cell in the PS4 may seem like Sony just sticking with its original plan, the real reason could be that the company in its current form doesn't have the reserves to create another chipset and build all the requisite development tools above it.

Going with Cell has the benefits of keeping production costs down for the PS4 and also allowing cutting game development costs due to a consistent architecture. Sony would also be able to include a smaller chip size from the start, potentially reducing the system's retail price.

The rest of Goto's article is mostly speculation as the highly respected writer considers how much of a performance increase we can expect from the PS4. According to Goto, Moore's Law suggests that Sony could go about including as many as 32 cores in the system (compared to the current 8). However, he doesn't think this is likely. Due to cost concerns, he thinks its more possible that Sony will stop with somewhere between 10 and 20 cores along with a small increase in clock rate. Looking at just the CPU, he says, the PS4 would have 2.x times as much power as the PS3.

Goto also feels that an early PS4 launch could be reasoning for the reuse of the Cell architecture. Assuming Sony wants to launch the PS4 earlier than it did the PS3 in comparison to the competition, going with a new architecture could be tough. According to Goto, it takes at least three years, and more usually four, to go from the start of chip development to an actual product. If Sony wanted a 2011 launch, for instance, they'd have to speed up the process, and one method for that, says Goto, is to use an existing architecture.

This will help people who have not clear what is real, what fake, what speculation,etc

 

[BobsRevenge]

If there is no real power increase than why would anyone buy it?

edit: post above this one makes much more sense.

 

[davepoobond]

now game consoles are going to become vcrs, they stay the same for 40 years until someone is brave enough to make new technology.


2x the ps3 is kind of a lot...i dont know how much more we'd really expect for something coming in 5 years. 32x?

 

[Pistolero]

Everybody acts surprised, but hasn't this been the plan all along ? I would have questionned it had they thrown the Cell structure and dissipated the R&D that went into the project. Isn't this the whole argument of the chip : A flexible, scalable and very powerful design ?
What is laughable is the suggestion that the PS4 would end up "slightly" more powerful...Ridiculous.

 

[snatches]

I think it is probably more likely that this is a "slim style" makeover of the current ps3. If the ten year cycle is to be believed, then 2011 would be a good time to release this. Perhaps Sony feels some pressure to keep the box up to competition with the next xbox on the tech side so cross platform stuff holds its own, while staying price competitive, their big problem so far this gen IMO.

No way is this going to be branded as a new console or complete departure from ps3. If this thing is as powerful as the next xbox but price competitive but holds on to the ps3 moniker then sony can spin it that the "ps3" was the best selling console of the gen, so to speak, and stay committed to the 10 year life cycle angle.

This, of course, would splinter the userbase somewhat but this might be an acceptable thing for Sony under the circumstances. They would also have the freedom to iterate other parts of the tech as surely the next xbox will have motion control and Sony will have to keep up with Nintendo and MS on that front considering the market response to Wii.

This might be the only way that Sony can keep up with both competitors concurrently.

Interesting news IMO.

 

[antiloop]

Sony and Nintendo will have a hard time competing with Microsoft if they make massively parallel game machines. The heart and soul of computer languages are serial in nature. To address that problem is a huge undertaking.


Building parallel computer chips like a GPU is a moderate challenge.

Creating an intuitive to program general purpose parallel platform is extremly hard.


J Allard has been correct all along.

True, but Intel, AMD and IBM are all going that route. Parallel is the future. Microsoft will have to step it up or they will be left out in the cold.

 

[davepoobond]

thing about the 10 year cycle is that in the ps2's 7th year is when the PS3 came out. its not 10 years until the NEXT console, its 10 years of having the console on the market, like PS2 will be, since it has 2 years to go to meet that mark.

 

[Diablohead]

If there is no real power increase than why would anyone buy it?

Think about what you just said for a moment...

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

thing about the 10 year cycle is that in the ps2's 7th year is when the PS3 came out. its not 10 years until the NEXT console, its 10 years of having the console on the market, like PS2 will be, since it has 2 years to go to meet that mark.

Well, yeah, but for some reason some people have trouble comprehending that.

 

[pestul]

Well, given the massive increases in power from PS2-PS3 and Xbox-360.. this would be a disappointment. Now I believe MS would not leap as much as with the 360, but you've got to think they're going to make a pretty significant technological leap with their next system. God knows what Nintendo have planned.. they might just fuck everyone up.

 

[Psychotext]

Think about what you just said for a moment...

 

[Doc Evils]

IGN has their own article which is probably the most accurate so far:

http://ps3.ign.com/articles/914/914584p1.html



This will help people who have not clear what is real, what fake, what speculation,etc

IGN for the win.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

Well, given the massive increases in power from PS2-PS3 and Xbox-360.. this would be a disappointment. Now I believe MS would not leap as much as with the 360, but you've got to think they're going to make a pretty significant technological leap with their next system. God knows what Nintendo have planned.. they might just fuck everyone up.

With what Nintendo has shown this generation, both MS and Sony have no real huge incentive to become loss leaders again next generation. They both could cram in $400 work of tech by 2011 and at the very least break even at around that prcie and it would be more powerful than both PS3/360 easily, though the leap would not be as substantial as PS2/Xbox-->PS3/360.

 

[Guy Legend]

I think it is probably more likely that this is a "slim style" makeover of the current ps3. If the ten year cycle is to be believed, then 2011 would be a good time to release this. Perhaps Sony feels some pressure to keep the box up to competition with the next xbox on the tech side so cross platform stuff holds its own, while staying price competitive, their big problem so far this gen IMO.

No way is this going to be branded as a new console or complete departure from ps3. If this thing is as powerful as the next xbox but price competitive but holds on to the ps3 moniker then sony can spin it that the "ps3" was the best selling console of the gen, so to speak, and stay committed to the 10 year life cycle angle.

This, of course, would splinter the userbase somewhat but this might be an acceptable thing for Sony under the circumstances. They would also have the freedom to iterate other parts of the tech as surely the next xbox will have motion control and Sony will have to keep up with Nintendo and MS on that front considering the market response to Wii.

This might be the only way that Sony can keep up with both competitors concurrently.

Interesting news IMO.

You can't splinter the userbase and still call it a PS3. Either it will be a slim version with extra features and the same specs or it will be a new console with new branding (PS4) with backwards compatibility to be almost certain if a simmilar architecture is used.

 

[DangerStepp]

I don't see what the problem is here, console life cycle's have always almost followed a 5 year run. Even if it was two times more powerful it would still make some pretty impressive games.

Yeah, five year life cycles based upon the past. As expensive as this generation has been, it'd better go a little longer. Plus, Sony is still trying to escape becoming the butt of everyone's jokes.

 

[Dali]

now game consoles are going to become vcrs, they stay the same for 40 years until someone is brave enough to make new technology.


2x the ps3 is kind of a lot...i dont know how much more we'd really expect for something coming in 5 years. 32x?

[PPE]           [PPE]                         [PPE]             [PPE]
   |                  |                                |                    |
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>> [EIB]<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
                                        |
                                        |
         [SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE]
         [SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE]
         [SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE]
         [SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE][SPE]

We want more... MOAR!!! 4 PPEs, 32 SPUs, SLI top of the line graphics cards, liquid based direct brain interface, wireless floating bubble displays, sleek transparent organic design. MOAR!!

 

[Walshicus]

now game consoles are going to become vcrs, they stay the same for 40 years until someone is brave enough to make new technology.


2x the ps3 is kind of a lot...i dont know how much more we'd really expect for something coming in 5 years. 32x?

Wouldn't Moore's Law imply an 8x increase from 4.5 years, 16x increase from 6 years?

 

[XiaNaphryz]

thing about the 10 year cycle is that in the ps2's 7th year is when the PS3 came out. its not 10 years until the NEXT console, its 10 years of having the console on the market, like PS2 will be, since it has 2 years to go to meet that mark.

And it was only the 6th year in the US market. Same thing happened with PS1 to PS2.

Yeah, five year life cycles based upon the past. As expensive as this generation has been, it'd better go a little longer. Plus, Sony is still trying to escape becoming the butt of everyone's jokes.

But they're leveraging their existing tech as the starting point for the next gen, like what Nintendo did. It's not like they're going to throw everything away this gen and R&D something new, so they're still using their current investment to further recoup their losses from the current generation.

 

[HomerSimpson-Man]

[PPE]           [PPE]                         [PPE]             [PPE]
   |                  |                                |                    |
    >>>>>>>>>>>>>> [EIB]<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
                                        |
                                        |
                                        | 
[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]

[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]

[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]

[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]----[SPE]

We want more... MOAR!!! 4 PPEs, 32 SPUs, SLI top of the line graphics cards, liquid based direct brain interface, wireless floating bubble displays, sleek transparent organic design. MOAR!!

Hmmm....how big would a 32 SPE Cell at 45nm be compared to the PS3's 8 SPE at 90nm?

 

[Rapping Granny]

:lol IGN said it best. Stop talking about next gen you dicks.

 

[kiUNiT]

SE must have used this info for their decision to bring FF to the 360 and it's more powerfull successor.

 

[snatches]

You can't splinter the userbase and still call it a PS3. Either it will be a slim version with extra features and the same specs or it will be a new console with new branding (PS4) with backwards compatibility to be almost certain if a simmilar architecture is used.

we are now in the ipod/cell phone age, etc. Iterations are bound to cross over into the console business. wii hd has been bandied about and nobody minds. I think sony has a case for doing exactly that.

 

[Anerythristic]

I have said this all along. If people would clear the shit from their eyes and ears they would see that developers and publishers have been complaining about costs already and the platform holders are losing money hand over fist.

This has nothing to do with the Wii and everything to do with the bottom line. I will not presume to say the next console generation will be this much more powerful but I guarantee the days of leaps and bounds are over. Welcome to step by step. The next consoles will have the least noticable visual improvment ever.

We are going to be pointing out resolution and how the tectures and water look better rather than "mind blown!" "Look at those graphics!"

 

[mentalfloss]

Well, this might be a good thing. Graphics are starting to hit their limit in terms of marketable pushing power. It's only the geeks and Mark Rein who really require a substantial increase in horsepower.

 

[davepoobond]

Wouldn't Moore's Law imply an 8x increase from 4.5 years, 16x increase from 6 years?

This Moore guy didn't take into account people who never play games who want to buy things for cheap so they can play one game and never play them again while the rest of us actual gamers are left out in the cold with our dicks in our hands waiting for a real game

Well, this might be a good thing. Graphics are starting to hit their limit in terms of marketable pushing power. It's only the geeks and Mark Rein who really require a substantial increase in horsepower.

i fail to see how this is in any shape or form a good thing. why wouldn't it matter to the end-user? having more horsepower allows for developers to just do more things they couldn't do before. Its why we have computers that fit on a desk rather than a huge room that needed liquid nitrogen to cool down.

why would we ever need to add anything but 2 + 2?

 

[Kagari]

I wouldn't actually mind this. That way it can be reasonably priced. If they upped the GPU and RAM, I don't see the problem.

 

[DangerStepp]

:lol IGN said it best. Stop talking about next gen you dicks.

Oh well. Maybe they'll Twilight Princess Killzone 2 to PS4. lol!

In all honesty, if we're hitting a 'graphics peak', then why develop a new console with possible exsisting tech? Why not just concentrate on developing software, which will pay off as the price of the hardware decreases? Doesn't that make more sense than blowing the bank on a new box that is tailing on the end of a terrible generation and rapidly decreasing goodwill!?

 

[AndyD]

I just hope it's ONE SKU next gen. None of this multiple "flavor of the month" stuff....and:

Faster BD drive
More RAM
Cell-optimized GPU
Improved OS

Once removable hard drives entered the equation, the one SKU world was gone. Storage is a cheap way for them to improve constantly, and they do.

 

[Crayon Shinchan]

I don't care if they reuse the same architecture.

I'd just be cut if 1080p 4xAA, 8xAF 60fps no tearing, isn't the standard next generation (at least for Killzone 2 level graphics at least).

 

[AndyD]

I don't care if they reuse the same architecture.

I'd just be cut if 1080p 4xAA, 8xAF 60fps no tearing, isn't the standard next generation (at least for Killzone 2 level graphics at least).

It will be easily possible but not standard. The Madden engine will never improve...

 

[xKilltheMx]

When did PS3 come out 2006, right? And they are discussing releasing the PS4 in 2011 at the LATEST!? Come on let the PS3 get its first chest hair, go through puberty and have its first crush before discussing the PS4.

 

[News Bot]

PSX4 is a Wii-tized

Exactly what I was hoping they would never do.

Farewell, console gaming.

 

[Forsete]

I wouldn't actually mind this. That way it can be reasonably priced. If they upped the GPU and RAM, I don't see the problem.

I dont get this. Its a one time deal, you buy the system once.. Therefore I dont mind paying more for better state of the art hardware, it shouldnt be a problem. You have 5-6 years to prepare for it.

This is doomed. Sony does not have the will-buy-branded-poo apple/nintendo type of fanbase.

 

[charlequin]

we are now in the ipod/cell phone age, etc. Iterations are bound to cross over into the console business.

Do you people who keep repeating this soundbite like it means something not understand that iPods and cellphones have no platform cost associated with new iterations (every iPod ever released will play a song you ripped to MP3 or downloaded from iTunes to play on the first generation iPod) while new consoles do?

IGN has their own article which is probably the most accurate so far:

So basically the "Sony is (thinking about) sticking to an expanded version of their old architecture" (the part of the story that makes sense) is real, accurate reporting, while the "Sony is trying to accelerate their new platform and launch quickly" (the part that makes no sense) is entirely speculation on the part of the author?

Good to know!

 

[Vinzer Deling]

thing about the 10 year cycle is that in the ps2's 7th year is when the PS3 came out. its not 10 years until the NEXT console, its 10 years of having the console on the market, like PS2 will be, since it has 2 years to go to meet that mark.

Only the dominant system in each generation have long market life. PS3 is not the dominant system.

 

[[Nintex]]

It's strange that Nikkei and watch.impress.co.jp are filed under "rumor" and IGN is considered reliable.

 

[davepoobond]

Only the dominant system in each generation have long market life. PS3 is not the dominant system.

we haven't had a good enough example to make this shown. barely enough evidence to make it a concrete statement, especially since i don't think any other console maker has said "this product will be on the market for 10 years." All the other console makers in the past have just been like "oh good things are coming this year." Has Nintendo or Microsoft stated how long their console will be life-cycle-wise? No. We just assume that things are going to be a certain way until a date we guess and one of our guesses will be right.

let's just wait and see if Sony actually does drop the PS3 out of retail before saying that only the dominant system in each generation has a long market life.

 

[godhandiscen]

I saw this coming a mile away. It seems we won't be seeing much graphical improvements in any fronts for a while. I am pretty sure that PC GPU's will also stop destroying their predecessors with each new generation.

 

[ElFly]

thing about the 10 year cycle is that in the ps2's 7th year is when the PS3 came out. its not 10 years until the NEXT console, its 10 years of having the console on the market, like PS2 will be, since it has 2 years to go to meet that mark.

That only works for the winner of the past generation, though.

Second place and below are quickly killed. See: Master System, Genesis, N64/Saturn, Gamecube/Xbox.

 

[btkadams]

we're already talking about the ps4 when there's still people calling ps3 next-gen?

WTF

... well i guess, judging from the article, ps3 and ps4 are the same thing so it technically is next-gen.

 

[Vinzer Deling]

we haven't had a good enough example to make this shown. barely enough evidence to make it a concrete statement, especially since i don't think any other console maker has said "this product will be on the market for 10 years." All the other console makers in the past have just been like "oh good things are coming this year." Has Nintendo or Microsoft stated how long their console will be life-cycle-wise? No. We just assume that things are going to be a certain way until a date we guess and one of our guesses will be right.

let's just wait and see if Sony actually does drop the PS3 out of retail before saying that only the dominant system in each generation has a long market life.

then you must have been born in 1999 or stupid. or both.

Whether they claim it or not is irrelevant. They sure as hell assumed they were gonna steamroll the competition like the PS1 and PS2 era. Hence why they were confident that their PS3 would be another dominant system with a long shelf life. :lol

But I guess technically, if the article is true.. PS4 would extend it to 10 years since it's practically the same system with a waggle wand. :lol

 

[Mr.Squirrel]

Graphics/Tech whores, go with the PC. Leave the consoles for us "casuals" who don't want to pay $4-600 for a new machine. I see no real problem with them doing that. Graphically the PS3 is pretty impressive; FF13, MGS, GT5, Uncharted, etc. They need to focus on giving the developers the tools they need so they don't view the PS3 as a coding nightmare anymore. I'm hoping for a 199-250 pricepoint, but I doubt that'll happen.

 

[Pistolero]

Read the IGN article guys before freaking out...god !

 

[Dali]

then you must have been born in 1999 or stupid. or both.

Whether they claim it or not is irrelevant. They sure as hell assumed they were gonna steamroll the competition like the PS1 and PS2 era. Hence why they were confident that their PS3 would be another dominant system with a long shelf life. :lol

But I guess technically, if the article is true.. PS4 would extend it to 10 years since it's practically the same system with a waggle wand. :lol

I don't think any other manufacturers actually support their console like Sony has though. Great effort is being put fourth for the purpose adding value to their product. They also have a lot of 1st party developers so they aren't 100% dependent on 3rd party support. Contrast that to the Xbox and its support which was dead and buried almost the second the first 360 rolled off the assembly line. I think Sony and its relationship with its hardware is unlike anything we've seen so far so I've got to agree with Dave in that it's hard to say either way what will happen based on what we know.

 

[-COOLIO-]

if the wii had better graphics than the ps3, more precise motion controls, and developers making epic-intense games for it, gaf wouldnt like it?