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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It

Also why kill corn if last night was sawneek's night of vulnerability?

That doesn't make sense to me at all, unless despair was worried going to kill her would reveal themselves...

Food for thought, but that nugget makes me think about locations and mechanics.
 
More thoughts:

Two of our top three posters have been despair


Of the five posters that have posted more than our fearless monokuma, only makai is still left alive...
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
If Pau did not see Rest, then he did not do the kill. He could still be Despair, but I think if this is the case we should look elsewhere today.

This is another point: Why did the kill Corn? To put doubt on Ty4on and Pau? The lucky buddies? Sawneeks? Maybe it wasto avoid truly confirming the Cop's investigations.

These thoughts lead to only to the list of those who we already suspect.

So in that instance, why Corn? Rest and Christina could have killed Swamped and stay out of sight easier than taking out Corn. Yet, Corn is the one who is dead.

Because of this, I propose we narrow our search to

Swamped

And

Royal_Flush.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Another note: why not kill Sawneeks after a practical confirmation yesterday? Rest and Christina could have easily done it with out being seen, yet they didn't. swamped and Royal_Flush, however, would definitely be seen. But tonight, when Sawneeks goes for another swim,she would be ripe for the picking, and no one would see who did it.

This is a further reason why I feel we should narrow today's search between the two.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
My vote for now while we wait for people to show up:

VOTE: Royal_Flush

If you wonder why, I like Swamped for a gut read, and the voteing record was pretty tied... Until I remembered you heavily critisized the empty room defence of *Splinter... Yet voted for Ty4on.
 

Swamped

Banned
I have very little time right now and promise to post more in a few hours. But this death is quite puzzling, will need to take a closer look at the map to understand. Honestly thought Sawneeks was dead today.

Anyway, going off what i said at the end of the previous day phase.

Who here does NOT believe the dual Luckster and Pau/Ty4on claims? I personally can't find any evidence that suggests either pair is lying. But i am willing to listen if someone had ideas that can change my mind.

Basically, if you believe those four people, then our list of suspects is very small (AB cleared some people). I'll let you guys figure it out, but if there are still 2 or 3 Despairs, we can win no matter how badly we mislynch. If there's only one Despair, then we've already won, even if we keep mislunching.

Why would Despair kill Corn? He could have been a suspect for them for today.

Other thoughts - i think we've confirmed Despair must have a hacker, but I'd they remained in their own rooms the entire game then it's the same thing as a regular scum hunt. Unless Splinter was trying to mislead us into thinking the hacker doesn't move? Will have to think that one through, but in a rush now, byeeeee!
 

Swamped

Banned
^ it's day 7 and i don't see any evidence of third party killers, that makes me more sure of what i said above. Promise to post more details soon
 

Swamped

Banned
Also, again very quickly, is there a reason to discount that a Despair member could show up as ordinary in the role cop reports? Could be a way to combat the cop.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Also, again very quickly, is there a reason to discount that a Despair member could show up as ordinary in the role cop reports? Could be a way to combat the cop.
It would be possible, however according to my above posts, the only person that would add to the imidiate discussion would be Zippedpinhead. Both goshujinsama and I could have killed Sawneeks without being seen, but once again, Corn is the one that is dead.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Firstly, good job with yesterday's work everyone! We got 2 Despair down, possibly 1 or 2 more to go! We have this in the bag.

But more importantly, why the hell did Corn die? After outing my role yesterday I was convinced tonight would be the night I got axed. Seems like a weird person to go after. Still, rip Corn. I'm going to miss our arguments. :(

I agree with the idea that maybe Despair didn't go after me because they might have been caught by Pau. It's the only small lead we really have at the moment. I will be able to look at the map more later in the day and I will see what I can figure out. Going to be a little bit though, I honestly didn't expect to still be alive so I need to get back in the Mafia mindset and start questioning everything anyone has ever done. :p
 
Scum team would be something like:

CzarTim
Sawneeks
Royal_Flush
Rest
Christina
I wonder how much Reverse Psychology was in this post... In zeroth order he of course would name non-Despair players. But he isn't dumb he knows that we know that, so at least one person on that list should be Despair.
Except he thought that we would think so and he really dd put only Hope players on there)
. I want you to especially focus on Rest, Christina and me as I don't think Sawneeks is Despair after yesterday. In addition we should focus on Swamped due to her proximity to CB's room.

*Rest.

Also, why did they kill Corn of all people? All they did was give us more info to work with...
I agree. It doesn't make sense. Maybe they didn't want to be seen? But the only one that could see them anyway was Pau, so why not try to kill those two?

Anyway, let's just clear this up. I would have had to have passed Pau. Pau, did you see me?
That's convenient... Whom did you target and whom else did you see?

My vote for now while we wait for people to show up:

VOTE: Royal_Flush

If you wonder why, I like Swamped for a gut read, and the voteing record was pretty tied... Until I remembered you heavily critisized the empty room defence of *Splinter... Yet voted for Ty4on.
When I came back to the thread I didn't realize at first there was a page 88 that ended the day early, so I wrote a small novel on how I don't think that that *Splinter/Sawneeks misunderstanding could be faked from either side and so the only possible conclusion (if the room theory was indeed bullocks) was that Ty4on was Despair. After I had written it, shortly before submitting, I saw that the day already ended. I'm not the biggest reader (in the sense of how reading is used in here), so I repeadetly stressed that *Splinter was the safe choice but he had convinced me that he was not the Despair player.

Who here does NOT believe the dual Luckster and Pau/Ty4on claims? I personally can't find any evidence that suggests either pair is lying. But i am willing to listen if someone had ideas that can change my mind.
Now that *Splinter turned out to be the Despair player I do believe Ty4on/Pau. I don't think Makai/Kingkitty are telling the whole truth but they aren't anywhere near the top of my suspects at the moment (I have them at like 35% Despair). Just always keep in the back of your mind that Immunity is an easy claim for scum.

Basically, if you believe those four people, then our list of suspects is very small (AB cleared some people). I'll let you guys figure it out, but if there are still 2 or 3 Despairs, we can win no matter how badly we mislynch. If there's only one Despair, then we've already won, even if we keep mislunching.
I thought a bit about the Despair PRs. The two revealed so far have been very powerful and give Despair effectively two free NKs (CzarTim) and an almost guaranteed mislynch (*Splinter) which also leads to an additional free NK. Therefore I highly doubt we have 3 Despair left. I'm leaning towards 1 left, but 2 could also be possible.

Other thoughts - i think we've confirmed Despair must have a hacker, but I'd they remained in their own rooms the entire game then it's the same thing as a regular scum hunt. Unless Splinter was trying to mislead us into thinking the hacker doesn't move? Will have to think that one through, but in a rush now, byeeeee!
If you are telling me that *Splinter did this yesterday without actually knowing where Sawneeks was going then this was the boldest (or most desperate) play I have seen in my short career as mafia player so far.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
If we do consider the idea that one of Makai and KingKitty/both are lying, than the only person that would add to the imidiate discussion would be kingkitty. Once again, makai, as part of the bottom row, would've been able to kill Sawneeks with out being caught, therefore there was no reason to kill Corn.
 

Pau

Member
Also, looking at the map again, Rest could have killed CornBurrito if he went left. The two routes were equidistant. The only person we can really discount is Sawneeks. (Unless she's some sort of ninja. :p)

I agree with the idea that maybe Despair didn't go after me because they might have been caught by Pau. It's the only small lead we really have at the moment. I will be able to look at the map more later in the day and I will see what I can figure out.
That would leave: Royal_Flush, Swamped, kingkitty (maybe: equidistant routes left or right), and Zippedpinhead (maybe: equidistant routes left or right).
 

Ty4on

Member
If Pau did not see Rest, then he did not do the kill. He could still be Despair, but I think if this is the case we should look elsewhere today.

This is another point: Why did the kill Corn? To put doubt on Ty4on and Pau? The lucky buddies? Sawneeks? Maybe it wasto avoid truly confirming the Cop's investigations.

These thoughts lead to only to the list of those who we already suspect.

So in that instance, why Corn? Rest and Christina could have killed Swamped and stay out of sight easier than taking out Corn. Yet, Corn is the one who is dead.

Because of this, I propose we narrow our search to

Swamped

And

Royal_Flush.

What if to kill Sawneeks (she should have been in her room last night) they need to Head past Pau's room? This limits us to Royal Flush, Swamped, Kingkitty and Zippedpinhead (Kitty and Zipped would have a 50/50 chance of passing Pau). It seems very implausible though because if we have just four Despair in total that means both of the remaining ones are in the worst possible spot on the map right now.
You and Rest would risk passing by Pau's room while Sawneeks would had to.

They could be waiting for the next night to catch Sawneeks in the pool and are maybe hoping that there will be someone else in there as well. That seems unlikely given that Sawneeks would see anyone entering and has yet to see anyone, but who knows.

I think I'm still a high priority target, but they missed N4 and aren't taking chances for the time being. Same with Pau, I dunno who they targeted. I will always be vague about my role because of that.
 

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
I don't think KingKitty would be lying, because if they were, Makai would've gone to kill Sawneeks. At least if they were both Despair. If kingkitty is lying, then he could still be Despair.

I guess what I'm trying to say is that Makai is all but confirmed town for me at this point.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
I asked this before, but does anyone think Makai/kingkitty might be neutral survivors?

If they are then they win along with Hope/Despair as long as they aren't killed. Seeing as they are nk immune they only have to fear a day Lynch, meaning Despair can't really go after them all too well. It would be in their best interest to work with Town at this point so they can win.

Still, the "think of the different angles" part of me says they could be Despair and are playing the lucky buddy angle to stay safe. If it comes to it we shouldn't actively stay away from voting for them as nothing is concrete and everything could be a lie.

But I'm willing to believe they are neutral tbh.
 

Pau

Member
Ah, okay, I wasn't sure if they had to be like the last ones left or something. What you guys are saying makes sense since they don't seem to have a killing role like Kark did in the first game.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Ah, okay, I wasn't sure if they had to be like the last ones left or something. What you guys are saying makes sense since they don't seem to have a killing role like Kark did in the first game.

Yeah. From what I understand they just have to live until the end of the game and they win.
 

Makai

Member
DunsF23.png

Aw, man! I totally wanted to lynch Corn today.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Aw, man! I totally wanted to lynch Corn today.

Corn was actually the next person I wanted to actively investigate, especially after he defended *Splinter yesterday. >.>;

And as far as we know Pau only goes and stays to the right of the school.
 

Makai

Member
VOTE: Rest

Doesn't say much and voted with *Splinter a lot. Pretty garbage voting record in general. Made sure Launchpad was counting his vote 15 minutes before *Splinter ended the day.

Launch, I see you updating the spreadsheet. I think you missed my vote on *Splinter.
 
Wow, that was kind of unexpected.

Also I find myself in quite an unenviable position but going through list of confirmed/strong Hope players I can't really argue against it.

Who here does NOT believe the dual Luckster and Pau/Ty4on claims? I personally can't find any evidence that suggests either pair is lying. But i am willing to listen if someone had ideas that can change my mind.

Yeah, I'll bite.

Makai, how do you know for sure that kingkitty is your lucky buddy?
 

Makai

Member
Corn seems like a bad person to night kill when they could have gone after one of the three Ordinary Students cleared by AbsolutBro - Gosh, Terrabyte, or Zipped.

This is probably a stretch, but...

Different colour on Corn/Kitty?

I fucked up the colors on Corn and Kitty. Kitty revealed to be my buddy. Maybe Despair thought the three of us were bound somehow?
 
If you are telling me that *Splinter did this yesterday without actually knowing where Sawneeks was going then this was the boldest (or most desperate) play I have seen in my short career as mafia player so far.

He was familiar with the source material or he guessed it.

http://danganronpa.wikia.com/wiki/Aoi_Asahina

Terrabyte20xx was also about to guess Sawneeks role. Given that she earlier mentioned that she only ever moves left and assuming not into student rooms since AB already did so, that leaves the workshop and pool.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Alright boys and girls, looks like were are back to good ol' fashioned scum hunting for today. B)

Rl2aFKK.png

( needs to be updated but Splinter/Corn are dead )

So, went over the map a bit. The only people that can arguably be cleared of the kill are myself, Ty4on, Pau, Rest, and Terrabyte. Unless Pau is lying ( which I doubt ), she didn't see anyone and she isn't the killer herself, meaning she is clear. Ty4on is also clear by association to her and wasn't seen by Pau. I was not seen by Pau during the night, meaning I couldn't have killed Corn because I would have passed by Pau's room in order to do so. Rest/Terrabyte are a little iffy here as they both sit in the middle and could have gone left or right to get to Corn. They weren't seen by Pau, meaning they didn't go right, but they could have possibly gone left. Everyone else are all possibly the killer as they wouldn't have had to pass by Pau in order to kill Corn. So, honestly, not much to really be found here.

Going from most-likely-scum to probably-not-scum, my list currently sits at:

-Rest
-Royal_flush
-Terrabyte
-Christina
-Zipped
-Swamped
-KingKitty
-Makai
-Goshu
-Ty4on
-Pau

Quick glance at my notes and I realized that both CzarTim and Splinter never really went after Rest which fits in with Splinter never voting against his Despair buddy, CzarTim. As far as I remember he never actively went after the other two either, meaning all 3 kind of avoided each other for most of the game. I'm not sure if this is necessarily a scum tell but I found it odd.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Scum could also be using the room next to the pool (workshop?).

He never proved that he knew where she was unless I'm mistaken though.

Nope, Splinter did not. It was why I voted for him because I specifically asked him where he saw me and he gave me the wrong answer, meaning he was lying.
 

Makai

Member
Which phrases specifically?
I imagine in this diversion I will have to explain how the phrases fit into my role PM and then Launchpad steps in to chastise me for quoting it. Kingkitty is definitely my lucky buddy. I mean, what's the alternative? If Kingkitty were an impostor, the real lucky buddy would have counterclaimed.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
I imagine in this diversion I will have to explain how the phrases fit into my role PM and then Launchpad steps in to chastise me for quoting it. Kingkitty is definitely my lucky buddy. I mean, what's the alternative? If Kingkitty were an impostor, the real lucky buddy would have counterclaimed.

As long as you don't actively quote Launch ( like how I am quoting you now ) you should be fine. Pointing out the lines that King said in that post shouldn't get you in trouble with the Teacher.
 

Makai

Member
As long as you don't actively quote Launch ( like how I am quoting you now ) you should be fine. Pointing out the lines that King said in that post shouldn't get you in trouble with the Teacher.
Well, I already know the next step is "Huh? How does that fit in your role PM?" And then I have to quote my role PM to explain the context.
 

Makai

Member
Going from most-likely-scum to probably-not-scum, my list currently sits at:

-Rest
-Royal_flush
-Terrabyte
-Christina
-Zipped
-Swamped
-KingKitty
-Makai
-Goshu
-Ty4on
-Pau
Gosh, Terrabyte, and Zipped claimed Ordinary Student and were cleared by AbsolutBro. If Despair has a role that appears Ordinary Student when investigated...it's weirdly specific and would give away that Hope have a role cop.
 

Sawneeks

Banned
Well, I already know the next step is "Huh? How does that fit in your role PM?" And then I have to quote my role PM to explain the context.

Fair enough. Looking at that post you linked to just doesn't really make any sense to be honest. I can see where you dropped some stuff but not really anything from King.

Gosh, Terrabyte, and Zipped claimed Ordinary Student and were cleared by AbsolutBro. If Despair has a role that appears Ordinary Student when investigated...it's weirdly specific and would give away that Hope have a role cop.

Did he ever say they were Ordinary Students? I remember he wouldn't ever really vote against any of them but I still don't feel like it clears them of suspicion, even if they were investigated. All of the confirmed roles ( Czar, Salva, Splinter, etc. ) have been relatively vague on what alignment they could be just going by their role name.

I could just be remembering things incorrectly though. :(
 

Makai

Member
Did he ever say they were Ordinary Students? I remember he wouldn't ever really vote against any of them but I still don't feel like it clears them of suspicion, even if they were investigated. All of the confirmed roles ( Czar, Salva, Splinter, etc. ) have been relatively vague on what alignment they could be just going by their role name.

I could just be remembering things incorrectly though. :(
He claimed sleep walker and said which rooms he's visited. He did not contradict anyone's role claims.

AbsolutBro, what rooms have you visited?

Again:

N1: Franconp
N2: Terrabyte
N3: Zipped
N4: Goshujinsama
 

Makai

Member
If he investigated them and found that they lied about their role, he would have done something about it - claimed role cop and exposed them as lying scum.
 

Swamped

Banned
Did he ever say they were Ordinary Students? I remember he wouldn't ever really vote against any of them but I still don't feel like it clears them of suspicion, even if they were investigated. All of the confirmed roles ( Czar, Salva, Splinter, etc. ) have been relatively vague on what alignment they could be just going by their role name.

I could just be remembering things incorrectly though. :(

I'm still busy, but just passing through here.

I have seen explicit posts by AB saying he firmly believed TB and Zipped were Hope aligned (i think he even says 'ordinary' in one of those posts). He even outed 'Kalor' because he didn't want us voting for what he thought was a Hope student. But i went through the D5 posts during the night and i don't see any posts from him about Goshu. Unless someone can link me.

In the Star Wars game, there was an alignment cop and a Godfather who appeared Rebel if investigated. That's why i think Despair might have a similar power to combat the role cop. But what are the chances AB hit that player lol, he only investigated 4 people!

I still want to consider the possibility they could be Despair, if it makes sense with the 'cleared' players posting style and voting style. It is dangerous to have blind spots this late in the game.
 

Makai

Member
I'm still busy, but just passing through here.

I have seen explicit posts by AB saying he firmly believed TB and Zipped were Hope aligned (i think he even says 'ordinary' in one of those posts). He even outed 'Kalor' because he didn't want us voting for what he thought was a Hope student. But i went through the D5 posts during the night and i don't see any posts from him about Goshu. Unless someone can link me.

In the Star Wars game, there was an alignment cop and a Godfather who appeared Rebel if investigated. That's why i think Despair might have a similar power to combat the role cop. But what are the chances AB hit that player lol, he only investigated 4 people!

I still want to consider the possibility they could be Despair, if it makes sense with the 'cleared' players posting style and voting style. It is dangerous to have blind spots this late in the game.
Keep in mind all the power roles are like "Super High School Level _______." There's no reason for a Despair role with the ability to pass as Ordinary Student when investigated. They could just be given a benign role name like CzarTim. It's easy for Despair to claim Ordinary Student and AbsolutBro has verified that Gosh, Terrabyte, and Zipped told the truth.
 

Swamped

Banned
Keep in mind all the power roles are like "Super High School Level _______." There's no reason for a Despair role with the ability to pass as Ordinary Student when investigated. They could just be given a benign role name like CzarTim. It's easy for Despair to claim Ordinary Student and AbsolutBro has verified that Gosh, Terrabyte, and Zipped told the truth.

But did he make an explicit post stating his belief in Goshu? I couldn't find one.
 

Makai

Member
But did he make an explicit post stating his belief in Goshu? I couldn't find one.
Why should he? He also has to avoid revealing to Despair that he's a cop. His sleepwalker scheme was pretty smart - he has a reason for going out in the halls and he tells us which rooms he's "stumbled" into so we can figure it out if he's night killed. He wouldn't have kept his mouth shut if he knew Gosh was lying.
 
Well done, Hope! We successfully identified and punished another Despair member! With *Splinter and CzarTim out of the game, I believe we may have at least two more Despair to discover amongst our ranks. Judging from the size of the game of 23 players, 4 Despair would be a proportionate numbers.

To be honest, I did not expect CornBurrito to have died over night. Like many of you, I thought that Sawneeks would not survive the night. This is a strange development. However, it has given me a few pointers to work with.

First of all, I agree with the paths of thoughts that some of you have identified for today. Terrabyte20xx and Makai, in particular, have presented a list of suspects that closely resemble my own. My top suspect for Despair for today is: Swamped.

There are a number of reasons for my suspicion, and I shall list them as such:

1. A few times she seems to have alluded to have the intention to go back and reread some of the players (Post. 3405, 4071, 4082, 4097), which reads to me as pro-Hope intentions but she never quite presented her findings to us, even after the night phase has ended and the new day has began. The lack of the follow up repaints her good intentions as attempts to assume a pro-Hope profile. All bark and no show.

2. Swamped is also persistent in her attempts to insinuate uncertainty and doubt against a few players who have not only been cleared by the confirmed Hope cop, but also who had consistently proved that they are pro-Hope in terms of their contributions and votes. She has tried many times to muddy up the waters by suggesting that Pau and Ty4on are uncertain factors in Day 6 and even today in Post No. 4406. The pair of lovers have done nothing but volunteered information when they needed to and contributed with valid theories. She even voted for AbsolutBro in Day 5.

She has also tried to keep revisiting me as a questionable player though I believe she has not come up with supporting explanation for this behavior. Again, her lack of presentation of actual reasoning behind her throwing suspicion every other way reeks of Despair to me.

3. I reviewed the few numbers of successful night-kills that Despair had managed to perform and I believe that excepting Night 1's kill, they have the pattern of killing their immediate neighbors - to minimize the chance of being sighted at night.

Night 1 was unique, I suppose, because no players had actually understood the implication of movements in the corridors at night. But once Despair had grasped the concept, they became much more cautious about the distance they traveled during nights. In other words, I believe CzarTim took out SalvaPot on Night 2 (adjacent room), *Splinter took out AbsolutBro on Night 5 (adjacent room), and Swamped took out CornBurrito on Night 6 (adjacent room).

With that, I will cast my vote accordingly -

Vote: Swamped

As a closing, I would like to also point out that CornBurrito's list is another list that mirrors Terrabyte20xx's, Makai's, and mine own (Post No. 4196).

Ok real talk if we choose to believe every outed PR and trust in ABs skill at interpreting role names:

Swamped
Barrylocke - Mackzenie
CornBurrito
ViviOggi - Royals
Rest

those are the only people left. And I know I'm not Despair which leaves: Swamped/Mackenzie/Royals/Rest.

I really think someone's lying. Whether that be Splinter or Pau/Ty4on.

I am thankful that CornBurrito was astute enough to leave a clear pointer on his thoughts before the day ended early yesterday. It was unfortunate that the day had ended prematurely for two reasons; firstly, it deprived other players the chance to chime in with their inputs just in case they would not survive the night, and secondly, it provides a convenient smoke-screen against voting analysis. Had Hope wished to question a suspicious player's vote for Day 6, the player may simply state that he or she did not have a chance to cast his or her vote for the day. For this reason, I also found that it was the players outside the voting block that feels more suspicious to me. In short, I believe *Splinter hammered the day early to shield his team members from future voting analysis.

To safeguard against another early day's end, and just in case I will not survive the night, I would like to suggest that if Swamped is found to be a member of Despair, we should look into analyzing her pattern of camaraderie. This may be a long shot, but I noticed how she had jested with *Splinter when TL21xx departed from the game, and in post no. 2944 she seemed to have praised the Despair team in a backhanded manner. I reiterate, a definite long shot. But, if there is anyone she has particularly spoke for or defend in the course of the game that falls within Hope's small list of suspects, on the occasion that Swamped has been found Despair, then I believe we will have found our last Despair.

Curiously, one thing to note would be that CzarTim and *Splinter had never had their votes on Swamped.
 

Swamped

Banned
This weekend is going to be another one of those busy ones for me, but I promised a post on my theory on 'No Matter How Badly We Play, We've Already Won', so here it is.

I believe we have essentially won the game. There are several assumptions that go into this theory, and one piece of evidence.

Assumptions:

1. I believe Makai and KK’s roleclaims that they are both hope-aligned, night-kill immune students

2. I believe that the current PRs we have are also Hope aligned (Sawneeks and Pau – and by extension Ty4on since she vouches for him). It’s definitely strange that Sawneeks is alive, but somehow after Splinter and Sawneeks’ interaction from D6 I think it’s unlikely that she is Despair (but can I just say that the ‘first letter of the facility’ thing was really clumsily done, I was definitely on Splinter’s side on that one :p)

3. There are a maximum of 5 Despair.

If there are 3 Despairs, we have already won. If there 4, we have essentially won. If there are 5 we can still easily win with very little effort.

The evidence for presentation: Despair’s win condition as outlined in CzarTim and Splinter’s PMs. They need to kill all non-Despair players to win. I’ve brought this point up before, and dropped it thinking I was on the wrong track. Usually the win condition is that Mafia numbers need to match Town. If it’s not, it’s usually because there is some 3p killing force that could kill Mafia too. At first I was puzzled by the lack of multiple deaths per night – in fact we were getting deathless nights! So I brought up the possibility of an arsonist-type role, but even that seems highly unlikely given that it’s now Day 7 and that there isn’t even the slightest indication of one.

The reason for the win condition is that Despair cannot kill the lucksters at night. This is why I believe Makai and KK’s claims. If there is only one remaining Despair, they have already lost, you may as well hilariously role claim at this point. If there are two Despairs then the best they can do is tie the game.

Lots of people have been confirmed already, or have confirmation from other players. The ones who haven’t:

Rest
Swamped
Goshujinsama
Royal_Flush
Christina Mackenzie

I’m keeping Goshu on my list because I went through AB’s posts from D5 and I don’t see any outward confirmation of Goshu’s role by AB himself during Day 5.
If we believe the 5 current PRs are all Hope, then literally all we have to do is pick someone from this list at random and lynch them. It doesn’t matter how much we mislynch (as long as we don’t lynch the Lucksters. Even if there are 3 despairs in that list, the probability that we don’t lynch one of them, even chosen at random, is pretty small. Essentially, we would have to mislynch two days in a row (the chance of this happening is very small).

Tbh, that’s not how I want to play the game, randomly picking a player and lynching them is no fun. My goal for today is to vote out another Despair this day phase. If we don’t we’ll still win the game, but we won’t have ‘won’ the game.
Also, I'm quite excited about season 4 lol, both the other games are done, let's hurry it up!

Who’s with me?

VOTE: Rest [/highlght]

His posting style has changed a lot since the first few day phases. His was also the last vote before Splinter hammered his own death. This was coming at a point when it was almost certain that Splinter would get lynched. Even on D5 his vote for Kalor is one of the last ones, very bandwagony behavior. Vote out the person most likely to get lynched.
 

Swamped

Banned
1. A few times she seems to have alluded to have the intention to go back and reread some of the players (Post. 3405, 4071, 4082, 4097), which reads to me as pro-Hope intentions but she never quite presented her findings to us, even after the night phase has ended and the new day has began. The lack of the follow up repaints her good intentions as attempts to assume a pro-Hope profile. All bark and no show.

It's not my fault that you guys ended the day phase early,,,
Also, two of those people on my list were Splinter and CornBurrito, both are dead so there's no point in me going through them.
Ok, I'm going to give you a really weak excuse for the other two: We've been playing this game for nearly two months now. I'm kind of tired of going back and re-reading people in great detail, tearing apart their posts and such. The next time I play Mafia I'm going to be the lazy Ordinary Student instead. This is a lot of work...

2. Swamped is also persistent in her attempts to insinuate uncertainty and doubt against a few players who have not only been cleared by the confirmed Hope cop, but also who had consistently proved that they are pro-Hope in terms of their contributions and votes. She has tried many times to muddy up the waters by suggesting that Pau and Ty4on are uncertain factors in Day 6 and even today in Post No. 4406. The pair of lovers have done nothing but volunteered information when they needed to and contributed with valid theories. She even voted for AbsolutBro in Day 5.

Ummmm not sure if you read my post 4406? I specifically state that I have no reason to believe Pau/Ty and Makai/KK are lying.

She has also tried to keep revisiting me as a questionable player though I believe she has not come up with supporting explanation for this behavior. Again, her lack of presentation of actual reasoning behind her throwing suspicion every other way reeks of Despair to me.

I have not said you are a 'questionable' player. I am saying that I don't have proof that AB actually saw your role title as an ordinary student. I also don't have enough proof from D5 to say that AB definitely thought you were Hope aligned. I still haven't re-read you. But you are a player with few posts so maybe I'll find the time this weekend. We'll see, I'll be fairly busy with other stuff.

3. I reviewed the few numbers of successful night-kills that Despair had managed to perform and I believe that excepting Night 1's kill, they have the pattern of killing their immediate neighbors - to minimize the chance of being sighted at night.

Night 1 was unique, I suppose, because no players had actually understood the implication of movements in the corridors at night. But once Despair had grasped the concept, they became much more cautious about the distance they traveled during nights. In other words, I believe CzarTim took out SalvaPot on Night 2 (adjacent room), *Splinter took out AbsolutBro on Night 5 (adjacent room), and Swamped took out CornBurrito on Night 6 (adjacent room).

Can't really retort much. According to Map Mechanics, I could definitely have been the killer N6 and Pau and Saw wouldn't have seen.

Curiously, one thing to note would be that CzarTim and *Splinter had never had their votes on Swamped.

This is a very interesting point. I'm looking to see is there are any other players they don't vote for. Remember that CzarTim was only around for 3 game days though lol (ok 4...). Cursorily looking through the voting sheet, it seems that neither voted for TL21xx either. This is a game with a lot of players, even I haven't voted for every player, and I generally give out votes like candy.

Thanks for keeping your promise of analyzing me though :3
 

Swamped

Banned
2. Swamped is also persistent in her attempts to insinuate uncertainty and doubt against a few players who have not only been cleared by the confirmed Hope cop, but also who had consistently proved that they are pro-Hope in terms of their contributions and votes. She has tried many times to muddy up the waters by suggesting that Pau and Ty4on are uncertain factors in Day 6 and even today in Post No. 4406. The pair of lovers have done nothing but volunteered information when they needed to and contributed with valid theories. She even voted for AbsolutBro in Day 5.

Also, I had AB pegged as Despair for days, (ever since that Day 3 Gambit), and I never really let go of the idea, when I probably should have given that he was indeed Hope Aligned. I've never said I don't make mistakes. I truly believed he was a Despair wandering PR.
 
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