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[Aquamarine]

Too many people in this thread are blindly trusting these numbers as if they inherently have the same accuracy as NPD numbers.

Personally I'm waiting for the CEO to answer my question to him before I make any comments on the substance of the "Top 10" in the OP:

What % of this January $263 million data point is sourced directly from POS receipts, and what % of this $263 million figure is sourced from extrapolations, estimates, or algorithms?

The NPD Group directly tracks 90-95% of the physical retail video game console market. What percentage of the digital video game console market do you directly track?

 

[sörine]

Let me know if I read wrong, but ...

Given that we're talking PS3+PS4 vs X360+XB1:

Playstation ecosystem: roughly 104m (85+19)

Xbox ecosystem: roughly 96m (85 + 11)

Differerential of instal base put on a 100 base: PS=52, XB=48

Actual digital software sale differential for the month (again, if the data presented here is accurate): PS=63, XB=37

That's a huge difference imo. If it's not due to PS ecosystem buyers actually being more digital oriented, the only other explanation I could see (beside the data being wrong) would be that somehow the PS+ offering is included in the "sales" on PS ecosystems.

PS ecosystem also includes PS Vita and PSP though doesn't it? Although perhaps they inexplicably aren't counted along with all the Nintendo platforms?

 

[jkanownik]

Is there any freely available/published data to back the claim up? I'd prefer detailed numbers rather than near-fanboy stuff like this.

EA reported $374M in console digital net (i.e. not gross) revenue in their last earnings call. That equates to ~$175M a month in gross revenue. The two titles in the SuperData top 10 from EA account for ~$18M.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...8B6D-908F402331B1/Q3_FY15_Earnings_Slides.pdf

 

[Elandyll]

PS ecosystem also includes PS Vita and PSP though doesn't it? Although perhaps they inexplicably aren't counted along with all the Nintendo platforms?

If you look at their top 10, it's majorly dominated by 3rd party titles that aren't on portables though, and the explanation below the graph with the 63% specifically mentions PS3+ PS4.

Too many people in this thread are blindly trusting these numbers as if they inherently have the same accuracy as NPD numbers.

Personally I'm waiting for the CEO to answer my question to him before I make any comments on the substance of the "Top 10" in the OP:

Oh nope. Not trusting.
Even if I "believe" there's a trend on PS4 to tend to buy more digitally, the differential shown here seems WAY too big, at least to me.

 

[tattooed_dwarf]

I can't trust these numbers yet, are they know entity of counting sales? Vetted or something?

 

[Barack Lesnar]

Math question for whoever:

20 million PS4s worldwide
10 million X1s worldwide

*Idk the exact numbers but it's around there and 20/10 should make it easier to calc

If:
43% of digital is PS4
20% is PS3 (I'm gonna ignore the Vita, sorry SmokeyDave)
37% is Xbox but I'm unsure of the X1/360 split

Are there enough variables to calc a proportionate ratio between PS4 and X1 or... you know what, I give up. Someone can figure it out. Typed too much to not click submit.

 

[1st Course]

EA reported $374M in console digital net (i.e. not gross) revenue in their last earnings call. That equates to ~$175M a month in gross revenue. The two titles in the SuperData top 10 from EA account for ~$18M.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...8B6D-908F402331B1/Q3_FY15_Earnings_Slides.pdf

Numbers seems very low all around. Pretty sure FIFA Ultimate Team alone make more than $18M/month. No FFXIV seems weird too considering the game has like 1M subscribers and good amount of those are from Japan where most people play on consoles.

 

[BlockheadBrown]

EA reported $374M in console digital net (i.e. not gross) revenue in their last earnings call. That equates to ~$175M a month in gross revenue. The two titles in the SuperData top 10 from EA account for ~$18M.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...8B6D-908F402331B1/Q3_FY15_Earnings_Slides.pdf

Thank you for the link. However, no specifics are given except mobile, console, and PC.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

...



...



lol, Officer What-if? in the house.

What if the Earth explodes, how are you going to play your games then?



Interesting. Hardcore gamers only buy PS4s, confirmed then.

I want to know where my digital licenses will vanish when earth ends in 5 billion years.

 

[thelastword]

There are many variables apart from (INSTALLBASE) which would lend some credence to the numbers. The PS ecosystem has a more robust plan that encourages sales many magnitudes higher than on other platforms.

There are massive sales on digital titles every passing week, I mean good sales with good prices, beyond that, there are always flash sales mixed in as well. The frequency with which these sales exists on the PS platforms makes the XBOX platform quite non-existential in comparison, plus you get further discounts when subscribed to plus.

Another reason is the ease with which you can change your storage capacity on the PS systems, you could easily put a 2tb hdd on either the PS3/4 for your digital needs. The fact is, Sony has made embracing the digital future much more enticing and easier for the consumer to transition to. So the numbers are not all too surprising on account.

Don't forget that PS plus has also played a huge role in making PS owners much more digital friendly and in the habit. You go every Tuesday to download your free games, you impulse purchase games you may even have on disc for relatively quick access to them "again because of ridiculous psn sales". Of course now the free games are every month, but it was all a means to a cause.

 

[Aquamarine]

There are many variables apart from (INSTALLBASE) which would lend some credence to the numbers. The PS ecosystem has a more robust plan that encourages sales many magnitudes higher than on other platforms.

There are massive sales on digital titles every passing week, I mean good sales with good prices, beyond that, there are always flash sales mixed in as well. The frequency with which these sales exists on the PS platforms makes the XBOX platform quite non-existential in comparison, plus you get further discounts when subscribed to plus.

Another reason is the ease with which you can change your storage capacity on the PS systems, you could easily put a 2tb hdd on either the PS3/4 for your digital needs. The fact is, Sony has made embracing the digital future much more enticing and easier for the consumer to transition to. So the numbers are not all too surprising on account.

Don't forget that PS plus has also played a huge role in making PS owners much more digital friendly and in the habit. You go every Tuesday to download your free games, you impulse purchase games you may even have on disc for relatively quick access to them "again because of ridiculous psn sales". Of course now the free games are every month, but it was all a means to a cause.

You can apply common sense wisdom to get at a "PlayStation has a higher digital % than Xbox" conclusion.

That doesn't connect with the credence of these numbers, which may very well be off the mark entirely through excessive estimation, like everyone's favourite VG Chartz.


I encourage everyone to study this data point carefully:

EA reported $374M in console digital net (i.e. not gross) revenue in their last earnings call. That equates to ~$175M a month in gross revenue. The two titles in the SuperData top 10 from EA account for ~$18M.

http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...8B6D-908F402331B1/Q3_FY15_Earnings_Slides.pdf

And then try and reconcile that data point with the numbers listed in the OP.

 

[FairXchange]

Wow, Sony have covered lots of ground in the digital space. Very interesting to see that they made up over 60 percent in January.

 

[jcm]

You can apply common sense wisdom to get at a "PlayStation has a higher digital % than Xbox" conclusion.

That doesn't connect with the credence of these numbers, which may very well be off the mark entirely through excessive estimation, like everyone's favourite VG Chartz.


I encourage everyone to study this data point carefully:

And then try and reconcile that data point with the numbers listed in the OP.

They have the break-out by type in those slides. Full game downloads were $140M of their $693M total digital sales. So that's $46M a month. Figure half of it is console, and you're in the ballpark.

 

[Aquamarine]

They have the break-out by type in those slides. Full game downloads were $140M of their $693M total digital sales. So that's $46M a month. Figure half of it is console, and you're in the ballpark.

The problem with this is that the revenue figures in the OP don't just count full game downloads, they count all revenue spent within the game as well.

So you can't use a $374 / $693 * $140 / 3 calculation, you have to focus on the $374 million quarterly console download sales only.

And in that respect, the $18 million represented in the Top 10 seems a bit illogical.

 

[jcm]

The problem with this is that the revenue figures in the OP don't just count full game downloads, they count all revenue spent within the game as well.

So you can't use a $374 / $693 * $140 / 3 calculation, you have to focus on the $374 million console download sales only.

And in that respect, the $18 million represented in the Top 10 seems a bit illogical.

Oh whoops, you're right. Seems low then.

 

[Alo0oy]

Two things are important to remember - PS4 has more games than Xbone, and PS4 install base is significantly higher.

That doesn't explain the PS3.

 

[MadHitz]

I just traded all 12 of my physical PS4 games in and converted to digital copies to join the rest of my luxurious digital library. I'm totally digital now this gen and forevermore.

I have a feeling you'll regret doing that years down the road.

 

[DOWN]

I have a feeling you'll regret doing that years down the road.

Why? Don't regret it with music or PC. If the digital becomes unavailable (a rather paranoid phenomenon) I would order a disc.

 

[joostvandreunen]

How are payment service providers providing this level of specifics on purchases? I know my credit cards do not have that level of detail, even when a fraud prevention dept contacts me for what may be an abnormal purchase. Plus, on these two consoles, isn't a sizeable portion of digital purchases not done by payment service providers but instead PSN points cards or similar?

We track data on a line-item level, which give us a unique identifier, type of item, time and date of the purchase, currency, payment type used, payment vehicle, and country of origin. Occasionally we also get some demographic information (e.g. gender, age).

Yes, prepaid game cards are central to the digital console sales, but show up as just any another payment option.

 

[joostvandreunen]

What % of this January $263 million data point is sourced directly from POS receipts, and what % of this $263 million figure is sourced from extrapolations, estimates, or algorithms?

The NPD Group directly tracks 90-95% of the physical retail video game console market. What percentage of the digital video game console market do you directly track?

Their accuracy still remains to be seen.

In an average month, we capture one in five, or around 15-20% of total receipts across digital consoles. But before you dismiss that as 'not enough', here's two thoughts:

(1) Yes, today NPD tracks 95% of retail-based software sales. Up until recently, Walmart did not share like GameStop did, forcing NPD to figure out the missing 30-50% via triangulation.

(2) NPD has long been the incumbent, providing it with strong relationships with retailers and publishers. I started this five years ago in a coffeeshop with a single spreadsheet, one phone call at a time. Considering how far we've come, I have no doubt we'll get everyone on board sooner or later.

 

[joostvandreunen]

So VISA tells you what we are buying? That seems like a privacy violation.

We employ a double blind methodology.

First, all data providers are responsible for anonymizing the data before it goes out to us. While we do have unique identifiers for single individuals throughout our dataset, we do not collect people's names, address, phone numbers, etc.

Second, with the exception of myself and the head of the data team, no one else in the company has access to the raw data. This ensures that our data providers can remain anonymous and share freely, and, quite simply, because our analysts don't need to have that level of access to do their job.

None of the data we collect, or have collected in the past, has violated any privacy regulations.

 

[joostvandreunen]

Welcome, and thanks for releasing your top 10 data and coming by to answer questions. Is your company attempting to count all worldwide sales revenue for PSN and XBL only? Why are you excluding Nintendo?

Again, thanks for coming by and speaking with us.

Hey there,

Excellent question. As a startup, we are building and growing in accordance with market demand. In other words, our customers tell us what's valuable to them and that allows us to invest into the development of particular data services and products. We've only just started coverage of digital console on a title-level, and so far the emphasis from our customers has been on the PS3, PS4, Xbox 360 and XOne.

Of course, the WiiU is arguably much smaller, but then you guys seem to be an excellent job with the eShop.

 

[spatenfloot]

I want to know where my digital licenses will vanish when earth ends in 5 billion years.

You can find them on the Saturn 3 relay station of the Datanet. All the cool froods will have the cyberchip enhancements to play them.

 

[joostvandreunen]

Too many people in this thread are blindly trusting these numbers as if they inherently have the same accuracy as NPD numbers.

Personally I'm waiting for the CEO to answer my question to him before I make any comments on the substance of the "Top 10" in the OP:

I share your skepticism. So as a fellow observer of game industry data, I'd warn you to not let any source of information blind you. Every industry source has its weakness, including NPD, Nielsen and GfK.

What makes us different from the trusted incumbents is that we get questioned all day, every day. We're the newcomer, and so we get challenged on everything. I'm sure you can imagine the questions we face re: compliance and methodology from the Wall street analysts that buy our data to make million dollar stock recommendations. Similarly, we deal with an army of middle-management at large publishers that are resisting the shift towards digital and feel insecure.

But five years in, we are leading the conversation on digital. Publishers, analysts, investors, developers, hedge funds and others all turn to us to learn about digital. Meanwhile the incumbents are mostly just loitering.

When's the last time you questioned their accuracy?

 

[joostvandreunen]

NPD also estimates digital sales, likely with more datapoints than SuperData.

Ask any of their paying customers and see what they tell you.

 

[JaggedSac]

We employ a double blind methodology.

First, all data providers are responsible for anonymizing the data before it goes out to us. While we do have unique identifiers for single individuals throughout our dataset, we do not collect people's names, address, phone numbers, etc.

Second, with the exception of myself and the head of the data team, no one else in the company has access to the raw data. This ensures that our data providers can remain anonymous and share freely, and, quite simply, because our analysts don't need to have that level of access to do their job.

None of the data we collect, or have collected in the past, has violated any privacy regulations.

Wow, had no idea these middle men provided this data to others. I'm assuming you pay for this data?

Thanks for answering these questions.

 

[joostvandreunen]

As others have mentioned, these numbers are just estimates. They just look at numbers already released to the pubic, and extrapolate sales from them. It's no more accurate then many Gaffers guesses in NPD threads. From their site (they are hiring for an intern atm):




Pretty much what we do here.

I think you missed the part where we explain that we receive the monthly spending on digital games across 37 million paying online gamers. Having that really helps us cut back our reliance on estimates.

It is true. We make interns read up on annual reports. They don't, however, deal with the primary data set.

 

[joostvandreunen]

Wow, had no idea these middle men provided this data to others. I'm assuming you pay for this data?

Thanks for answering these questions.

We employ a two-sided business model: by collecting the data from all these sources, we are also able to provide them with insight that helps their business. NPD and GfK do the same: they collect from retailers and provide them with reports in return. Then they sell the data to everyone else.

We are not some clever, innovative tech startup with a better mouse trap. We merely use a tried-and-true market research model and jumped on the change to digital years before anyone else.

 

[joostvandreunen]

Be careful, now.

SuperData Research is trying to sell you their data on their website. Clearly they're going to paint themselves in the best possible light.

But they're well known for providing...estimates. Nothing more...just estimates. They're trying to fill a niche. They are by no means definitive, and they have lots of gaps in their data.


Nintendo, Microsoft, and Sony do not provide them with any data, I will tell you that right now.

They go around to publishers and beg for data. If you know anything about that strategy, it's usually quite unsuccessful.

So SuperData's sources are a mix of publicly available tidbits through financial reports and developer PR, a couple of publishers who actually give them data, and a TON of extrapolation to fill in the gaps.

Seems like you're the most vocal opponent here. What is it, exactly, that you know about our data and methodology that I don't?

 

[joostvandreunen]

"Companies we work with" is a very loose definition.

That could mean anything from SuperData Research clients to one-time partners 7 years ago.

Just because they list those companies there, doesn't mean all of those companies give SuperData Research digital sales data on a regular basis.

Again...we're on their promotional website where they're trying to sell you on their data. Vague statements have to be closely scrutinised.

Let me make it easier for you: All of the companies presented here either are or have been paying, active clients in the past 12 months. Further, we currently capture data on six of them.

Because part of the work we do is sensitive in nature, we are forced to sign agreements that prevent us from advertising some of our clients' name or logos. Of the top of my head, last year we worked with over 70 different companies. Whenever we talk to prospective customers, we are always more than happy to put them in touch with existing clients for references.

 

[Dreams-Visions]

63%?

Makes sense considering the WiiU's marketshare and having more platforms to throw at the statistic than Microsoft.

 

[joostvandreunen]

Remember to be wary of SuperData's methodology.

A lot of their numbers are mostly projections, algorithms, and estimates...not hard data.


This isn't equivalent to data tracking like NPD or GfK.

Actually, yes it is, as I explained to you here:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153996611&postcount=224

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153997247&postcount=225

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153998339&postcount=227

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153998720&postcount=228

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=153999008&postcount=229