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[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Seems like new predictions from him, as he usually gives them. Seems he gave them in a seminar in Tokyo.

PS3-Verkaufsprognose von Enterbrain (Famitsu)

13.10.06 - Hirokazu Hamamura, Präsident des Enterbrain Verlags (u.a. Famitsu), hat auf einem Seminar in Tokyo eine Verkaufsprognose für die PlayStation3 aufgestellt.

Bis Ende 2006 erwartet Hamamura, dass Sony 750.000 PS3 in Japan verkaufen kann; bis Ende 2007 sollen es 2.500.000 Einheiten sein.

Weltweit geht er davon aus, dass Sony 11.970.000 PS3 bis Ende 2007 verkaufen kann.

750.000 in Japan in 2006
2.500.000 in Japan in 2007 (so 1.750.000 through 2007)
11.970.000 worldwide in 2007 (I suppose it includes Japan)

Enterbrain (Famitsu) erstellt Wii-Verkaufsprognose

13.10.06 - Hirokazu Hamamura, Präsident des Enterbrain Verlags (u.a. Famitsu), hat eine Verkaufsprognose für Wii auf einem Seminar in Tokyo abgegeben.

In Japan erwartet Hamamura, dass Nintendo 1 Mio. Wii bis Ende 2006 verkaufen wird. Bis Ende 2007 sollen es 3.400.000 Einheiten sein.

Die weltweiten Wii-Verkaufszahlen sieht er bei 10.480.000 Einheiten bis Ende 2007.

1.000.000 in Japan in 2006
3.400.000 in Japan in 2007 (so 2.400.000 through 2007)
10.480.000 worldwide in 2007 (I suppose it includes Japan)

 

[DefectiveReject]

his 2007 numbers are a bit low.....!

 

[Merovingian]

11.970 hein?

Why not 11.975?

...

 

[Mr. TV Goggles]

This seems like one of the likely scenarios. Another likely scenario is that development will shift greatly towards Wii as developers see it as a viable platform. Which would turn consumers' heads (i.e. appealing software), which would make Wii the marketleader.

It's all up in the air, obviously, but I think when people do predictions, they simply look at the likely scenarios, and then take the likeliest scenario according to that person.

 

[mckmas8808]

Wii is too damn hard to judge. But 11.9 million for Sony isn't bad if it happened.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Seems there are X360 predictions too

Xbox 360-Verkaufsprognose von Enterbrain (Famitsu)

13.10.06 - Der Präsident des Enterbrain Verlags (u.a. Famitsu), Hirokazu Hamamura, hat heute auf einem Seminar in Tokyo eine Verkaufsprognose für die Xbox 360 erstellt.

Bis heute wurden in Japan insgesamt 150.000 Xbox 360 verkauft. Ende 2006 soll die Zahl nach Hamamuras Schätzung auf 250.000 Einheiten steigen, was u.a. durch gute Verkäufe von Blue Dragon und dem dazugehörigen Hardware-Bundle erreicht werden sein soll.

Er rechnet damit, dass 560.000 Xbox 360 bis Ende 2007 in Japan verkauft werden. Weltweit sollen bis Ende 2007 insgesamt 17.460.000 Einheiten der Konsole verkauft werden.

250.000 in Japan in 2006 (150.000 as of now)
560.000 in Japan in 2007 (310.000 in 2007 wow)
17.460.000 worldwide in 2007

 

[Fredrik]

11.970.000 worldwide in 2007 (I suppose it includes Japan)
10.480.000 worldwide in 2007 (I suppose it includes Japan)
17.460.000 worldwide in 2007

The 360 numbers are crazy, I just can't see that happening. What are the numbers so far, 5-6 million world wide?

 

[mckmas8808]

The 360 numbers are crazy, I just can't see that happening. What are the numbers so far, 5-6 million world wide?

:lol

No like 4.5 million.

 

[big_z]

PS3
750.000 in Japan in 2006

What!

650k in a month. i dont see it happening

 

[jarrod]

The 360 numbers are crazy, I just can't see that happening. What are the numbers so far, 5-6 million world wide?

Not so insane, at least the JP figures. All his worldwide estimates seem high I think though.

 

[plagiarize]

just a question, because my german isn't as it used to be, are those worldwide predictions total installed base or just 2007 sales?

they'd not be quite so crazy if it was the latter, but yeah. meine deustch ist gebrochnet.

 

[HocusPocus]

The 360 numbers are perfectly valid, and we should see our first next gen price cut just around April or May of next year. I think a lot of the real casuals are waiting for these consoles to drop in price more so this time than in the past. Should be a pretty dramatic spike with a $100 drop.

 

[KimiNewt]

What about DS predictions?
At this rate it could sell like 3 more million this year, not long till nintendo will have no more japanese to sell it to..

 

[The Innocent X]

just a question, because my german isn't as it used to be, are those worldwide predictions total installed base or just 2007 sales?

they'd not be quite so crazy if it was the latter, but yeah. meine deustch ist gebrochnet.

total installed base.

 

[Clever Pun]

What about DS predictions?
At this rate it could sell like 3 more million this year, not long till nintendo will have no more japanese to sell it to..

well, when the NeoDSLite is released they will all have to buy a second one, so I think Nintendo will be fine for a while.

 

[Fredrik]

Okay the 360 is out in like 30 countries now and there are no sales statistics for several of those countries, but 17 million world wide by the end of 2007? I think that sounds incredibly high.

 

[_Alkaline_]

What about DS predictions?
At this rate it could sell like 3 more million this year, not long till nintendo will have no more japanese to sell it to..

No need to worry, the Japanese will just buy extra DS's.

 

[Yoboman]

I think he underestimates PS3's Japanese appeal, and underestimates Wii's worldwide appeal esspecially. I can see PS3 being higher than that in Japan, maybe 5 million - with Wii a fraction higher in Japan and in worldwide figures.

 

[plagiarize]

I think he underestimates PS3's Japanese appeal, and underestimates Wii's worldwide appeal esspecially. I can see PS3 being higher than that in Japan, maybe 5 million - with Wii a fraction higher in Japan and in worldwide figures.

well he's just estimating as you are.

what's this guys track record like for predictions? is he usually close or what?

the ps3 is likely to have fierce competition from the Wii in japan... which would be good for everyone. at a much higher price though, i can't see sales being at ps2 speeds. what did the ps2 do in japan in a similar time frame? substantially more, about the same or substantially less?

 

[jimbo]

If the 360 is still the market leader world-wide in sales at the end of 2007, this forum is going to be very entertaining.

 

[plagiarize]

well it's hardly impossible... but it'll just be like the DS/PSP situation. Sony supporters will compare either the 360 sales for the period the PS3 has been out and declare the PS3 the winner, or, initial 360 sales with initial PS3 sales and declare the PS3 the winner, whichever makes the system look better, and people that want to see the PS3 fail will do the opposite.

 

[Yoboman]

well he's just estimating as you are.

what's this guys track record like for predictions? is he usually close or what?

the ps3 is likely to have fierce competition from the Wii in japan... which would be good for everyone. at a much higher price though, i can't see sales being at ps2 speeds. what did the ps2 do in japan in a similar time frame? substantially more, about the same or substantially less?

3.89 million on the first year anniversary

http://www.vgcharts.org/japweekly.php?date=36954

 

[Mithos Yggdrasill]

Seems like new predictions from him, as he usually gives them. Seems he gave them in a seminar in Tokyo.


750.000 in Japan in 2006
2.500.000 in Japan in 2007 (so 1.750.000 through 2007)
11.970.000 worldwide in 2007 (I suppose it includes Japan)


1.000.000 in Japan in 2006
3.400.000 in Japan in 2007 (so 2.400.000 through 2007)
10.480.000 worldwide in 2007 (I suppose it includes Japan)

...We'll see, but these estimation will not become reality in my opinion, overall what he predict about PS3 in Japan in 2006.

 

[cank stoochie]

the 360 estimates is far too high

 

[RaijinFY]

2.500.000 in Japan in 2007 (so 1.750.000 through 2007)

Would be around PSP first year numbers if i get it right. Not so great if you ask me and I could see (easily) this scenario happening...

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

More predictions...

6 Mio. PS3 bis März 2007 - Enterbrain zweifelt an Sony-Prognose

13.10.06 - Sony will nach eigener Aussage 6 Mio. PS3 weltweit bis Ende März 2007 ausliefern. Famitsu-Herausgeber Enterbrain steht dieser Ziel kritisch gegenüber.

Für wahrscheinlicher hält es Enterbrain laut der Mainichi Zeitung, dass Sony nur 4.130.000 PS3-Konsolen bis März 2007 ausliefern kann. Begründet wird diese Annahme damit, dass der Preis des 20GB Modells der PS3 mit Yen 49.980 (Euro 333 / USD 417) immer noch hoch ist; Sony hatte den Preis am 22.09.06 von Yen 59.800 (Euro 399 / USD 499) um fast 20 Prozent gesenkt.

Außerdem sei das amerikanische Software-Angebot mager. Sony Computer Entertainment sagt über Enterbrains Prognose, dass sich nichts am geplanten Absatzziel geändert hat und man weiterhin 6 Mio. PS3 bis Ende März 2007 ausliefern will.

Enterbrain doesn't believe Sony will manage 6m figure in FY2006 (until March). They say 4.130.000 and the reason is the price and such blablabla....

Japan: Erstes PS3-Magazin 'Dengeki PS3' startet im November

13.10.06 - Media Works gibt bekannt, dass man das PlayStation3-Magazin 'Dengeki PlayStation3' am 02.11.06 in Japan veröffentlichen wird; es handelt sich um das erste Magazin Japans, das sich ausschließlich um die PS3 kümmert.

In dieser Spezialausgabe sollen die Hardware und das Start-Lineup ausführlich vorgestellt werden, damit der Kunde eine entsprechende Kaufberatung erhält. Die Auflage liegt bei 100.000 Exemplaren, der Heftpreis beträgt Yen 500 (Euro 3,30 / USD 4,20) und der Umfang liegt bei 116 Seiten.

Media Works will have a Dengeki PS3 magazine special on 2nd November. 100.000 copies, 500Y and 116 pages.

Famitsu-Umfrage zu Next Generation Konsolen

13.10.06 - Die Famitsu hat über 1.000 Leute in der Zeit vom 22.09.06 bis 30.09.06 online in Japan zu den Next Generation Konsolen befragt. Auf die Frage 'Welche Spielkonsole der nächsten Generation wünschen Sie sich am meisten?' wurde geantwortet:

- 35,6 Prozent: PS3
- 13,6 Prozent: Wii
- 2,9 Prozent: Xbox 360
- 47,9 Prozent: Keine

Die Zeitung Yomiuri Shimbun kommentiert die 35,6 Prozent der PS3 und sagt, dass der Preis von Yen 49.980 (Euro 333 / USD 417) für das 20GB-Modell von den Leuten noch als zu hoch angesehen wird - gerade im Vergleich mit den Yen 25.000 (Euro 166 / USD 208) des Wii - und das Ergebnis gedrückt hat.

So sagten auch 59,6 Prozent der 1.000 Befragten, dass die PS3 selbst nach dieser Preissenkung immer noch teuer ist.

Well, 1000 people asked by Famitsu online. Question 'Which console do you wish for yourself the most?'

35,6%: PS3
13,6%: Wii
2,9%: Xbox 360
47,9%: None

Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper says that people still see the 20GB price expensive. (better translation needed here)

From the 1000 people, 59.6% said the PS3 price is still expensive after the pricedrop.

 

[sonycowboy]

Here's a reuters report on the subject

Sony PS3 to outsell Xbox 360, Wii -Japan publisher

TOKYO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Sony Corp. (6758.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) may fall behind rivals in the initial phase of the next-generation game console race, but is likely to grab the top spot eventually, Japan's top video game magazine publisher, Enterbrain, said on Friday.

Sony and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (7974.OS: Quote, NEWS, Research) will in November start rolling out their latest game gear, the PlayStation 3 (PS3) and Wii, setting a stage for a three-way showdown with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) already available Xbox 360.

"The PS3 will have a tough time globally at the initial stage. Its launch titles in Japan and exclusive software titles overseas are quite limited," Enterbrain President Hirokazu Hamamura told a seminar.

"But its overwhelmingly realistic graphics will give it a long life span. It will stay competitive even when a game console battle breaks out among a newer generation of machines in 2010. Sales should grow every time Sony cuts prices," he said.

Costs of manufacturing consoles come down as production yields improve, helping game makers cut prices to stoke fresh demand.

Enterbrain expects Sony to sell 4.13 million units of the PS3 worldwide in the current business year ending March 2007. Sony itself aims to ship 6 million units over the same period.

The publisher also expects Nintendo to sell 5.47 million units of the Wii by March, compared with Nintendo's own target to sell 6 million units.

Besides the lack of game titles at the start, PS3 sales will be hampered by its high price tag, Hamamura said.

Sony expects a model of the PS3 with a 20-gigabyte hard disk drive and a Blu-ray high-definition optical disc player to sell for $499 in the United States, about twice as much as the Wii price.

But in the longer term, Enterbrain expects the PS3 to outsell both the Wii and Xbox 360, helped by its lifelike graphics and a rich pool of potentially popular game software that will be released in 2007 or later.

Those software titles, many of which are sequels to existing games played on the blockbuster PlayStation 2, include "Metal Gear Solid 4 Guns of the Patriots" from Konami Corp. (9766.T: Quote, NEWS, Research).

By the end of 2009, Enterbrain expects Sony's PS3 sales to total 34 million units, surpassing an estimated 25 million Wii sales and 28 million Xbox 360 sales.

 

[elostyle]

just a question, because my german isn't as it used to be, are those worldwide predictions total installed base or just 2007 sales?

they'd not be quite so crazy if it was the latter, but yeah. meine deustch ist gebrochnet.

Install base.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

So he predicts the 360 to be the worldwide leader by the end of 07?

Peter Moore just did a backflip.

 

[Speevy]

So he predicts the 360 to be the worldwide leader by the end of 07?

Peter Moore just did a backflip.

It will definitely be the leader in the US. Worldwide though...

 

[KeithFranklin]

Sony PS3 to outsell Xbox 360, Wii -Japan publisher

TOKYO, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Sony Corp. (6758.T: Quote, NEWS, Research) may fall behind rivals in the initial phase of the next-generation game console race, but is likely to grab the top spot eventually, Japan's top video game magazine publisher, Enterbrain, said on Friday.

Sony and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (7974.OS: Quote, NEWS, Research) will in November start rolling out their latest game gear, the PlayStation 3 (PS3) and Wii, setting a stage for a three-way showdown with Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT.O: Quote, Profile, Research) already available Xbox 360.

"The PS3 will have a tough time globally at the initial stage. Its launch titles in Japan and exclusive software titles overseas are quite limited," Enterbrain President Hirokazu Hamamura told a seminar.

"But its overwhelmingly realistic graphics will give it a long life span. It will stay competitive even when a game console battle breaks out among a newer generation of machines in 2010. Sales should grow every time Sony cuts prices," he said.

Costs of manufacturing consoles come down as production yields improve, helping game makers cut prices to stoke fresh demand.

Enterbrain expects Sony to sell 4.13 million units of the PS3 worldwide in the current business year ending March 2007. Sony itself aims to ship 6 million units over the same period.

The publisher also expects Nintendo to sell 5.47 million units of the Wii by March, compared with Nintendo's own target to sell 6 million units.

Besides the lack of game titles at the start, PS3 sales will be hampered by its high price tag, Hamamura said.

Sony expects a model of the PS3 with a 20-gigabyte hard disk drive and a Blu-ray high-definition optical disc player to sell for $499 in the United States, about twice as much as the Wii price.

But in the longer term, Enterbrain expects the PS3 to outsell both the Wii and Xbox 360, helped by its lifelike graphics and a rich pool of potentially popular game software that will be released in 2007 or later.

Those software titles, many of which are sequels to existing games played on the blockbuster PlayStation 2, include "Metal Gear Solid 4 Guns of the Patriots" from Konami Corp. (9766.T: Quote, NEWS, Research).

By the end of 2009, Enterbrain expects Sony's PS3 sales to total 34 million units, surpassing an estimated 25 million Wii sales and 28 million Xbox 360 sales.

Think it is safe to say that if at the end of 2009 the numbers are anywhere near this both Nintendo and MS would be thrilled. This is a Win for MS and Nintendo and a loss for Sony overall. They would both have signifigantly more software sales then previous generation. With the numbers so close 3rd parties would be far less excited over PS3 exclusives.

 

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

It will definitely be the leader in the US. Worldwide though...

Microsoft needs to get its act together in Europe. They can't survive just being slightly ahead in one territory.

 

[quetz67]

Why do people still care about analysts? When it comes to gaming, they are always wrong (besides those coincidentally coming close to correct numbers as result of random distribution)

 

[bgassassin]

What good are sales predictions if the console makers can't produce enough to even meet those numbers?

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

New Famitsu survey

Mit der nächsten Frage wollte die Famitsu von 1.707 Personen wissen: 'Was würden Sie zum Jahresende kaufen, wenn Sie sich zwischen PS3 und Wii entscheiden müssten?':

- 35,8 Prozent: Wii
- 32,3 Prozent: PS3
- 4,3 Prozent: Ich würde beide kaufen
- 27,6 Prozent: Ich warte ab und schaue mir die Lage erstmal an

1707 people. 'Which console would you buy before THIS YEAR ENDS if you had to decide between a PS3 or a Wii?'

35,8%: Wii
32,3%: PS3
4,3%: I would buy both (& I am stupid because I didn't understand the question)
27,6%: I would wait to see the situation first

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Why do people still care about analysts? When it comes to gaming, they are always wrong (besides those coincidentally coming close to correct numbers as result of random distribution)

Well, actually, this one can manipulate the famitsu data we receive to match his predictions :lol

 

[open_mouth_]

I think the 360 will be the market leader by the end of '07 (worldwide) followed by Wii then PS3.

End of '07: 39% 360, 32% Wii, 29% PS3
End of '08: 33% all around
End of '09: too hard to predict

 

[apujanata]

Any prediction for NDS and PSP sales in 2006 and 2007, Ichigo ?

Summarized from Ichigo's post :

PS3 :
750.000 in Japan in 2006
2.500.000 in Japan in 2007 (so 1.750.000 through 2007)
11.970.000 worldwide in 2007

Wii :
1.000.000 in Japan in 2006
3.400.000 in Japan in 2007 (so 2.400.000 through 2007)
10.480.000 worldwide in 2007

X360 :
250.000 in Japan in 2006 (150.000 as of now)
560.000 in Japan in 2007 (310.000 in 2007 wow)
17.460.000 worldwide in 2007