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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th

P

Primethius

Banned
Las7 said:
So any word on who is doing the PC port, SFV is the type of title that can do best on the PC if the port is not broken upon release.
Click to expand...

Sales wise? I doubt it. SFV is going to do better on PS4 simply by virtue of it being the defacto tournament version. How good of a PC port it is doesn't really factor into that. Not to mention a few other reasons why the PC version won't be the sales lead, but I feel like that's the biggest.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Welfare said:
Wrap it up folks. Cosmic has spoiled the thread.

Now Kev can't tease this month.
Click to expand...

I am pretty sure I could trick certain people by posting random gibberish.

I want to get SFV, but I need a PS4 fightpad (I don't think I need a stick). I haven't found a good one that I should be buying, but I also have no interest in paying $100 to play a game.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Y2Kev said:
I am pretty sure I could trick certain people by posting random gibberish.

I want to get SFV, but I need a PS4 fightpad (I don't think I need a stick). I haven't found a good one that I should be buying, but I also have no interest in paying $100 to play a game.
Click to expand...

This reminds me that I need to get a CronusMax. Definitely not buying a new fight stick if I can use the one I already have on my PS4.
 
V

Vena

Member
Mpl90 said:
One of the things I noticed in the past year on Amazon.com is that releases tend to rise in rankings much more as the release approaches. There can be titles that, while around top 100 at, like, 10 days before the release, can improve their placement a lot. Also, they can sell well despite earlier low positions in charts. I'd wait a bit more before making more-or-less definitive judgements on the game's performance.
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Oh I am just making observations off of the oft loved to be observed Amazon retail listings. :p I am not trying to make any conclusive statements, and the only reason I highlight SFV is because it is also non-existent in the Japanese pre-order market.

Unfortunately two data points... also just make a straight line, lol.

RED_RING said:
I say 480,000 for Street Fighter V on February NPD. [retail]

>600,000 including digital, but we will never know.

...Maybe i'm The only Guy here interested to Far Cry Primal, but any prediction?

Far Cry 4 Sold over 670,000 in November NPD 2014... I expect Far Cry Primal to Sell ~300,000.
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I'm currently pegging SFV at opening at retail on the NPD (PS4 only, obviously) at ~350-400k. Can't say I know how to judge the PC release in the current climate of shit-ports and such.

I am not optimistic about SFV at all, and I think its only going to sell to fans and that the rest of the market is spoken for from products that got out sooner and provided more (so weak legs). But I'll be glad to be proven wrong.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Vena said:
Oh I am just making observations off of the oft loved to be observed Amazon retail listings. :p I am not trying to make any conclusive statements, and the only reason I highlight SFV is because it is also non-existent in the Japanese pre-order market.

Unfortunately two data points... also just make a straight line, lol.



I'm currently pegging SFV at opening at retail on the NPD (PS4 only, obviously) at ~350-400k. Can't say I know how to judge the PC release in the current climate of shit-ports and such.

I am not optimistic about SFV at all, and I think its only going to sell to fans and that the rest of the market is spoken for from products that got out sooner and provided more (so weak legs). But I'll be glad to be proven wrong.
Click to expand...

I don't see this as being the case. Aside from MKX, what competition is there really for SFV? It's still going to have casuals flock to it. Perhaps not as many as something like MKX did or even SFIV (given that it was the resurgence of the franchise), but I doubt casuals are going to shun the game.

And with SFV, it's core market is now much more WW then SFIV's ever was.
 
S

StrongBlackVine

Banned
Vena said:
Oh I am just making observations off of the oft loved to be observed Amazon retail listings. :p I am not trying to make any conclusive statements, and the only reason I highlight SFV is because it is also non-existent in the Japanese pre-order market.

Unfortunately two data points... also just make a straight line, lol.



I'm currently pegging SFV at opening at retail on the NPD (PS4 only, obviously) at ~350-400k. Can't say I know how to judge the PC release in the current climate of shit-ports and such.

I am not optimistic about SFV at all, and I think its only going to sell to fans and that the rest of the market is spoken for from products that got out sooner and provided more (so weak legs). But I'll be glad to be proven wrong.
Click to expand...

I haven't played a fighting game in over decade and I jumped on the hype. It might attract more casuals than you think.

Primethius said:
I don't see this as being the case. Aside from MKX, what competition is there really for SFV? It's still going to have casuals flock to it. Perhaps not as many as something like MKX did or even SFIV (given that it was the resurgence of the franchise), but I doubt casuals are going to shun the game.

And with SFV, it's core market is now much more WW then SFIV's ever was.
Click to expand...

This.
 
V

Vena

Member
Primethius said:
I don't see this as being the case. Aside from MKX, what competition is there really for SFV? It's still going to have casuals flock to it. Perhaps not as many as something like MKX did or even SFIV (given that it was the resurgence of the franchise), but I doubt casuals are going to shun the game.

And with SFV, it's core market is now much more WW then SFIV's ever was.
Click to expand...

Smash. MKX is the "in-eco" competition, but Smash is a general competition. The casual audience is torn between those two, especially with the easy access to Smash3DS, so I see no reason to expect anyone to "flock" to SFV when it offers less than its own in-eco competition until months after launch, and less than general competition.

All the same I don't think the casuals will actively "shun" SFV, I just don't think that the extended audience outside of fans and FGC are interested. And, yes, SFV will gain benefits from strong WW performance (though not from Japan) and may find successes in new markets.

But as was noted, maybe everyone is just ordering/buying at GameStop for HotRyu, so the barometer is totally askew. /shrug
 
J

Jigorath

Banned
gtj1092 said:
Crazy capcom isn't launching SFV on 3DS after shipping 1 million copies of SFIV on 3DS launch.
Click to expand...

It's not crazy. And you should never use launch software sales as a good indication of anything. Knack shipped a million units.

gtj1092 said:
If anything they should delay it and do a simultaneous launch on NX/Ps4.
Click to expand...

That sounds like a horrible idea.

It's a good thing you're not in charge of Capcom.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
Unless something changes I'm thinking under 500k for SFV launch. Its still early / no reviews out yet though so that could change
 
V

Vena

Member
gtj1092 said:
Crazy capcom isn't launching SFV on 3DS after shipping 1 million copies of SFIV on 3DS launch. If anything they should delay it and do a simultaneous launch on NX/Ps4.
Click to expand...

Why would a Sony funded title end up on the 3DS or NX? Capcom is doing what they were paid to do, otherwise the title probably wouldn't have seen the light of day for years yet.
 
N

NateDrake

Member
Jigorath said:
It's not crazy. And you should never use launch software sales as a good indication of anything. Knack shipped a million units.



That sounds like a horrible idea.

It's a good thing you're not in charge of Capcom.
Click to expand...

Knack reached that number while "selling" 400k in Japan as a forced bundle. SFIV 3DS sold well as a launch title, and it is a shame Capcom didn't followup with another SFIV or fighter this gen for 3DS.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Vena said:
I'm currently pegging SFV at opening at retail on the NPD (PS4 only, obviously) at ~350-400k. Can't say I know how to judge the PC release in the current climate of shit-ports and such.

I am not optimistic about SFV at all, and I think its only going to sell to fans and that the rest of the market is spoken for from products that got out sooner and provided more (so weak legs). But I'll be glad to be proven wrong.
Click to expand...

It going to take years before we see how much legs SFV going to have .
Not to mention DD going to play a big part and we not going to get numbers unless from capcom .
Also what products got out before SFV ?
The only big one is MK all the others are niche .

EDIT seeing your next post you think the casuals that own a PS4 going to care about smash on 3DS .
They not going care about smash cause it not on a system they own .
 
J

Jigorath

Banned
NateDrake said:
Knack reached that number while "selling" 400k in Japan as a forced bundle. SFIV 3DS sold well as a launch title, and it is a shame Capcom didn't followup with another SFIV or fighter this gen for 3DS.
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I don't get the impression SSFIV sold all that well on 3DS. It launched in Japan with 44k and quickly fell off the charts. It didn't crack the top ten in it's NPD debut. It's launch sales were probably slightly inflated just due to being the one noteworthy title in the barren launch lineup but they have might have simply overshipped the game.

There's probably a decent reason why Capcom cut Street Fighter and Resident Evil support for 3DS after the first year or so.
 
V

Vena

Member
Jigorath said:
There's probably a decent reason why Capcom cut Street Fighter and Resident Evil support for 3DS after the first year or so.
Click to expand...

RE was because of engine capabilities and wanting to go episodic in delivery which the 3DS eShop had no way of supporting.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
CosmicQueso said:
Erm, no way LEGO Avengers takes #1 in January, right? COD or something would surely have to beat it?
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Look at those Call of Duty sales in January...

[2011] Call of Duty: Black Ops - 750,000
[2010] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 - 586,000
[2009] Call of Duty: World At World < 438,000
[2008] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare - 471,000


Even if we considering that in January NPD 2013 a game like DMC sold 187,000 and was only #6 with CoD at first place...

yeeeeeeah probabily nope lol.
 
R

Raist

Banned
ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
We dont know how successful either console is going to be this year. Things are on a tragetory but nothing is written in stone.
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l3kYm.gif
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Vena said:
Smash. MKX is the "in-eco" competition, but Smash is a general competition. The casual audience is torn between those two, especially with the easy access to Smash3DS, so I see no reason to expect anyone to "flock" to SFV when it offers less than its own in-eco competition until months after launch, and less than general competition.

All the same I don't think the casuals will actively "shun" SFV, I just don't think that the extended audience outside of fans and FGC are interested. And, yes, SFV will gain benefits from strong WW performance (though not from Japan) and may find successes in new markets.

But as was noted, maybe everyone is just ordering/buying at GameStop for HotRyu, so the barometer is totally askew. /shrug
Click to expand...

I don't see Smash as competition given that it's a Nintendo title which has always had its own audience.
 
V

Vena

Member
Primethius said:
I don't see Smash as competition given that it's a Nintendo title which has always had its own audience.
Click to expand...

Its available to ~70 million units of hardware and sold ~12 million units of software, and I'd be rather shocked if there weren't at least a meaningful amount of cross-over somewhere, and its obviously tapped into casuals. You may think of it as isolated to "a Nintendo audience" but I think that's too narrow a view. The franchise, both in software and simple growth as a major FGC game, is too big to just to be looked at as a tertiary, isolated existence than a direct competitor.

And, frankly, we live in a era where casual interest can be shown and satiated through watching Twitch. I can't speak of SF, but Smash has a lot of viewers who don't own a WiiU or Smash, they either play it a clubs or they just watch it from a cursory interest in FGC and Smash.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Vena said:
Its available to ~70 million units of hardware and sold ~12 million units of software, and I'd be rather shocked if there weren't at least a meaningful amount of cross-over somewhere, and its obviously tapped into casuals. You may think of it as isolated to "a Nintendo audience" but I think that's too narrow a view. The franchise, both in software and simple growth as a major FGC game, is too big to just to be looked at as a tertiary, isolated existence than a direct competitor.

And, frankly, we live in a era where casual interest can be shown and satiated through watching Twitch. I can't speak of SF, but Smash has a lot of viewers who don't own a WiiU or Smash, they either play it a clubs or they just watch it from a cursory interest in FGC and Smash.
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I don't think the sales have any bearing because Smash has always existed even prior to SFIV and it has always been prominent.

Sure there's probably some cross-over but it's not meaningful to any degree. Melee fans are sticking with Melee, fans of Wii U are with that and I can't imagine any great number of fighting game fans who like the SF style of gameplay giving up the game due to Smash.

MKX is the only real competition the game has.
 
V

Vena

Member
Primethius said:
I don't think the sales have any bearing because Smash has always existed even prior to SFIV and it has always been prominent.

Sure there's probably some cross-over but it's not meaningful to any degree. Melee fans are sticking with Melee, fans of Wii U are with that and I can't imagine any great number of fighting game fans who like the SF style of gameplay giving up the game due to Smash.

MKX is the only real competition the game has.
Click to expand...

Smash has always been a big game, but its rise too its highs as a outward facing pro-game is only rather recent and it had before then existed more as a side road than a direct FGC event. Street Fighter was king for a long time in its own world. Smash as a pro-game really started to fire off its engine in 2013 with the resurgence of Melee, and then the positive and forward reaction to Sm4sh.

This is all rather recent stuff.

And, largely besides the point.

I wasn't claiming or even saying that SF players/fans would give up or head over to Smash. I said, rather specifically, that SF would in actuality largely sell, and for lack of a better quantifier "only", to fans. (So you repeated what I said.) And that casuals/extended audience with cursory interest may have already been, in large part, lost to MKX and Smash. The former offering more hooks and options for the wider audience in-ecosystem, and the latter being an outsider but still relevant competitor in mindshare and general appeal with the 3DS version being an easy-access/low barrier to entry path for any less core fan or kid or whatever.

The casual gamer has no real allegiances to "style of play" hence being casual or extended, rather than a "series fan".
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Vena said:
Smash has always been a big game, but its rise too its highs as a outward facing pro-game is only rather recent and it had before then existed more as a side road than a direct FGC event. Street Fighter was king for a long time in its own world. Smash as a pro-game really started to fire off its engine in 2013 with the resurgence of Melee, and then the positive and forward reaction to Sm4sh.

This is all rather recent stuff.

And, largely besides the point.

I wasn't claiming or even saying that SF players/fans would give up or head over to Smash. I said, rather specifically, that SF would in actuality largely sell, and for lack of a better quantifier "only", to fans. (So you repeated what I said.) And that casuals/extended audience with cursory interest may have already been, in large part, lost to MKX and Smash. The former offering more hooks and options for the wider audience in-ecosystem, and the latter being an outsider but still relevant competitor in mindshare and general appeal with the 3DS version being an easy-access/low barrier to entry path for any less core fan or kid or whatever.

The casual gamer has no real allegiances to "style of play" hence being casual or extended, rather than a "series fan".
Click to expand...

No, I understand full well where you are coming from. And MKX is the competition that took away from SF. I just am failing to see how Smash is taking away from the audience in anyway.

Smash plays drastically different then typical fighters and its relegated to a platform that has sold terribly. I just don't see how twitch numbers factor into it. Smash Melee gets more viewers then Smash Wii U. I just don't see how you can draw conclusions about Smash taking away from SF when the audiences have never meshed and to me, still don't mesh.
 
R

Ryng_tolu

Banned
Primethius said:
I don't think the sales have any bearing because Smash has always existed even prior to SFIV and it has always been prominent.

Sure there's probably some cross-over but it's not meaningful to any degree. Melee fans are sticking with Melee, fans of Wii U are with that and I can't imagine any great number of fighting game fans who like the SF style of gameplay giving up the game due to Smash.

MKX is the only real competition the game has.
Click to expand...

But Smash and Mortal Kombat aren't that difference.
1.0
 
J

jbluzb

Member
[3DS] 64,960
[PS4] 252,800
[WIU] 51,856
[XB1] 154,560

Hope to start the prediction thread with a good number :D
 
J

Jarod McChicken

Member
The FGC has grown quite a bit since the release of SFIV, especially in the middle-east. And I wouldn't be surprised that the ROTW steps in to give SFV a comparable if not bigger opening then SFIV.

Aside from MKX, what competition is there really for SFV? It's still going to have casuals flock to it. Perhaps not as many as something like MKX did or even SFIV (given that it was the resurgence of the franchise), but I doubt casuals are going to shun the game.

And with SFV, it's core market is now much more WW then SFIV's ever was.
Click to expand...

A widened market, a bigger FGC and the lack of competitors are fair and encouraging selling points.

But I suspect the need for SFV is simply not so big outside of the fighting game real enthousiasts. The context seems so much different from SF4 launch.

Street Fighter IV is old, but Ultra Street FIghter IV isn't, and I feel like SFV's launch is not perceived as the huge event it's supposed to be. I'm not even talking about Japan here, that market is a tragedy.

I'm not speaking for myself since the game will be downloaded in my PS4 next week. And again, if Steam is hot enough, I think the 2 million target is achievable in time.
 
S

Shenmue

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Okay, we have Mortal Kombat and maybe Smash as competition for Street Fighter.
Why did noone mention Killer Instinct?
Click to expand...

Cause it didn't even have more participants than Persona 4 Ultimax at last year's evo. It's not competition at all for street fighter.
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
slavesnyder said:
Okay, we have Mortal Kombat and maybe Smash as competition for Street Fighter.
Why did noone mention Killer Instinct?
Click to expand...

Killer instinct was the only next gen fighter on the block from launch and only had a poor port of injustice that barely anyone knew about to contend with.

It has already had 2.5 years in the spotlight.

Besides that, its essentially a digital only title
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Jarod McChicken said:
Street Fighter IV is old, but Ultra Street FIghter IV isn't, and I feel like SFV's launch is not perceived as the huge event it's supposed to be. I'm not even talking about Japan here, that market is a tragedy.
Click to expand...

Ultra Street FIghter IV is old if you want a change in certain game play aspects , same for gfx etc etc.
The big difference with this SF is that the community get to play it threw out it's development .
Which might not make it seem so hype compare to it just coming out in one country and everyone else having to wait .
Still the character threads, DLC and beta threads were very active .
 
A

Alo0oy

Banned
RED_RING said:
Too much first month. Too low lifetime.

It's legs are not gonna be so bad. Imo, of course.
Click to expand...

I don't think 3 million is too low at all, that's how vanilla SFIV did, and that was a big resurgence to Street Fighter and fighting games in general.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Alo0oy said:
I don't think 3 million is too low at all, that's how vanilla SFIV did, and that was a big resurgence to Street Fighter and fighting games in general.
Click to expand...

Still you have to remember it only going to have one version .
So all the legs going to come from that over the years .
 
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