Primethius
Banned
[3DS] 65K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 35K
[XB1] 170K
[PS4] 190K
[WIU] 35K
[XB1] 170K
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January 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes February 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Y'all are forgetting one thing about SFV. It basically being designed around the idea of increased ARPU via character packs and costume packs. It's being treated like a long term money making platform. We've seen this focusing on increasing ARPU a few times this gen already when publishers are concerned about a potential unit sales decrease over prior entries (see Halo 5 and UC4 microtransactions). While it might sell less units than SFIV it stands a chance of being significantly more profitable.
Edit: Beaten by Bgamer
Edit: Beaten by Bgamer
ethomaz
Banned
I don't think Halo 5 will ever cover what ir didnt sell... it is a huge difference.
Welfare
Member
The REQ system is really popular. A portion of the money made from them went to increasing the HCS prize pool, which at last update (December 3rd) was over $2,000,000 (original was $1m). They also recently added a lot of options for people to buy with real money, going all the way to a $99 option. Halo 5 also has the best player retention in the series since Halo 3.
The ARPU for Halo 5 is most likely the highest in the series. As long as the game continues to sell, add content, and get good word of mouth, it'll more than make up the drop of total sales from Halo 4.
Final Verdict
Member
[PS4] 215K
[XB1] 177K
[3DS] 65K
[WIU] 55K
[XB1] 177K
[3DS] 65K
[WIU] 55K
ferrasvansen
Member
[PS4] 219k
[XB1] 184k
[3DS] 72k
[WIU] 59k
[XB1] 184k
[3DS] 72k
[WIU] 59k
Obliterator
Member
Now that is something pretty interesting I was unaware of
Welfare
Member
Going to find the post. It was on the competitive Halo forum by one of the heads at 343.
Here it is, this is Josh Holmes.
Obliterator
Member
Very interesting. Its entirely possible micro transactions may help off set the loss in total sales volume by quite a bit. I dont see how it could ENTIRELY make up the gap as Halo 3 for example will sell several millions of more copies LT than Halo 5, but if retention is that good it could help a lot.
I know a lot of my uni friends, who crashed really hard on Halo 4 and were left with a bad taste in the mouth, are very positive on Halo 5 and the way it handles maps vs. req packs. I think they've all spent at least another 20$ on top (for those who have picked up the game, still a few have 360 still) and I don't think they ever bought map packs in the past since most, if not all, of our play was local or friend multi.
Retention rate measures % of players regularly playing so I can see how %age wise it might be up there because basically only the hardest of hardcore Halo players bought it this time. Halo 3 was MASSIVE and its retention rate is all the more impressive despite the crazy high numbers it was pulling sales wise. It lot easier to maintain a high retention rate with a smaller more dedicated fanbase than it is with a massive audience. So, like most MS PR this gen, that statement might be true but it is substantially less impressive/meaningful than what they seem to imply when putting it into the proper context.
That said I have 0 doubt Halo 5 has some insanely high ARPU and stands a chance to be the most profitable game in the series to date its just adjusted to a much smaller market base than it has had in the past in order to do so. Nothing wrong with that. Its incredibly unlikely that Halo will ever put out the units sold figures weve seen from past entries again.
BlackBuzzard
Banned
[3DS] 65K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 110K
[PS4] 180K
[WIU] 40K
[XB1] 110K
ethomaz
Banned
I'm just guessing now but less players means that population is more hardcore and less casual... that put the retention at high % levels.
I don't think the population playing and buying these micro transaction will ever cover the revenue/profit lost with the low sales.
We are talking here at something like 7 million copies difference lifetime unless Halo 5 get a huge boost in sales before Halo 6.
Welfare
Member
Yeah, the more hardcore audience bought the game at launch and stuck with it. This is much better than what Halo 4 accomplished with trying to cater to the casuals and then having what has to be the lowest retention rate in the series. It's the smaller victories.
7 million? How low of a LTD do you think Halo 5 has right now or will have later, and which game are you comparing it to? Halo 4 was the last main game, and it's doubtful if it even hit 10 million sold, and if it did, a majority of those copies were sold for much lower than $60. The digital release even fell down in price really quickly, hitting $30 within I wanna say half a year. Might've been earlier than that. Halo 5 is still $60 digital which really surprises me and it's hovering around $40 at retail, when Halo 4 was around that or lower.
Halo 5 is most likely making either the same amount or even more money for MS at this point in the games life than Halo 4 did, and later on, it's only going to get worse for Halo 4. Halo 5 is a bad mark on the series in sales figures, but it is making up for it in ARPU.
slavesnyder
Member
All predictions seem pretty close. I wonder how we will get our numbers this time.
Nature will find it's way.
Nature will find it's way.
EventHorizon
Member
[3DS] 67k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 49k
[XB1] 145k
[PS4] 210k
[WIU] 49k
[XB1] 145k
Obliterator
Member
Soooo....rumor mill of course but MS may have something interesting bundle wise for April
Gotta be something involving Quantum Break.
DeadOnions
Member
If the player retention for Halo 5 is based on no of players in relation to sales then it's not a particularly great stat.
The plus side is that the player base is more likely to buy into micro transactions.
The plus side is that the player base is more likely to buy into micro transactions.
FullMetaltech
Member
Doesn't Uncharted 4 come out in April as well? That would be a great month for both.
Yep (late April) -- an even greater reason to have a solid bundle that's a good price.
I wonder if they do another temporary price drop.
mejin
Member
Maybe they will be agressive in this bundle ($300) since Sony will charge $400 on Uncharted's 4 limited bundle.
slavesnyder
Member
MS marketing brainstorming
Oh, almost forgot to make my software prediction!
Well, boring month for sure, i at least hope Paper Jam will do fine, but why not:
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront (XBO; PS4; PC)
3) Lego Marvel: Avengers ( 360; XBO; PS4; PS3; 3DS; Wii U; PSV; PC)
4) Madden FNL 16 (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
5) NBA 2K16 (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
6) Fallout 4 (PS4; XBO; PC)
7) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3; PC)
8) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
9) Minecraft: Story mode: a Telltale Game Series (360; XBO; PS4: PS3)
10) Tom Clancys Rainbow SIX siege (XBO; PS4; PC)
Lego Marvel: Avengers < 200K [Retail]
Mario and Luigi: Paper Jam > 60K [Retail]
Final Fantasy Explorers < 50K [Retail]
Imo, Lego is the harder to guess, the "kids audience" is moving from old gen, for example in UK the PS4 version was the best selling version, but i think in the US the 360 version will still win.
Well, boring month for sure, i at least hope Paper Jam will do fine, but why not:
1) Call of Duty: Black Ops III (XBO; PS4; 360; PS3; PC)
2) Star Wars: Battlefront (XBO; PS4; PC)
3) Lego Marvel: Avengers ( 360; XBO; PS4; PS3; 3DS; Wii U; PSV; PC)
4) Madden FNL 16 (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
5) NBA 2K16 (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3)
6) Fallout 4 (PS4; XBO; PC)
7) Minecraft (360; XBO; PS4; PS3; PC)
8) Grand Theft Auto V (PS4; XBO; 360; PS3; PC)
9) Minecraft: Story mode: a Telltale Game Series (360; XBO; PS4: PS3)
10) Tom Clancys Rainbow SIX siege (XBO; PS4; PC)
Lego Marvel: Avengers < 200K [Retail]
Mario and Luigi: Paper Jam > 60K [Retail]
Final Fantasy Explorers < 50K [Retail]
Imo, Lego is the harder to guess, the "kids audience" is moving from old gen, for example in UK the PS4 version was the best selling version, but i think in the US the 360 version will still win.
Chobel
Member
QB bundle (with or without AW) doesn't sound interesting at all, unless it involves a price cut, but then anything bundled will be interesting.
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EDIT: Oops almost forgot to put my prediction:
[3DS] 85K
[PS4] 179K
[WIU] 50K
[XB1] 145K
Primethius
Banned
I vote for another push of the TR bundle.
Anyone else? Anyone...?
Anyone else? Anyone...?
Chobel
Member
Even worse than QB bundle, maybe both games bundled?
The Uncharted bundle won't do shit, Sony are making the same mistake MS did with Halo, they're pricing the bundle at a premium.
Lego always did better on the PS4 in the UK, you're confusing it with Disney Infinity.
Too high, except Lego, I agree there.
FF:E =< 45k
M&L: PJ =<60k
Also LEGO break down seems unusual given past precedent in NPD and I don't think a few months would have made that large of a difference:
(Aug) 5.) Lego: Jurassic World (360, 3DS, Wii U, PS3, Xbox One, PS4, Vita)
(Sep) 7.) Disney Infinity 3.0 (360, Wii U, Xbox One, PS4, PS3) (for reference on children)
slavesnyder
Member
I think the "chose your game" bundle is still the best option. Also: it will not age.
Lego will outsell Star Wars.
That's true, but Halo bundle was $100 more expensive. I think should help more, but i agree that all considering that bundle won't do much.
Nope.
Code:
03 (NE) 360 LEGO JURASSIC WORLD (WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE)
04 (NE) PS4 LEGO JURASSIC WORLD (WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE)
05 (NE) XBO LEGO JURASSIC WORLD (WARNER BROS. INTERACTIVE)I am more optimist about Mario and Luigi, it has an intere month of sales after all. If sells less than 60K... that's fucking bomb.
DriftingSpirit
Member
The PS4 just got a cut from $400 to $350. The X1 was $350 to $499. I don't think that is an apt comparison.
I think there is a good chance they will also release standard bundle [black console + game]. They did the same standard+premium treatment for Battlefront.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
A limited edition console for 50USD more than the standard price? You are right they all bombed. Except Destiny. And Batman. And Star Wars. Wait a minute....
Unknown?
Member
Yeah but the BO3 bundle was $429, now there's a non limited bundle for $349. I suspect they'll do a standard UC4 bundle as well.
A standard seems given at this point... black ps4 Uncharted 4 349 id be legit shocked if it didn't happen
slavesnyder
Member
Hell, throw in the trilogy on top. It costs them nothing.
freefornow
Gold Member
QB bundle including Alan Wake & AW: American Nightmare BC X360 codes.
Maybe a Monarch Industries branded controller as well.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Yep, this is what I was thinking.