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Japanese Analyst PS5 to sell 200 million

Kenpachii

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Unlikely reasons for that.

- Better competition = less consumers
- more expensive box = less consumers
- longer expensive as a result = less consumers
- more expensive games = less consumers
- there demograph getting older, big chance there current pool of people just naturally drains
- Consoles aren't much of a focus for kids anymore these days
- PC space far more competitive then any before = less consumer
- Switch will probably fair well with the next consoles simple for the fact that price is king.
- Mobile keeps on trucking which most new kids sit on, they aint joining the ps5 space anytime soon.
- No indication of console consumer group is growing in general, it's been on a decline already vs new gamers for a while now. Money is up tho for simple fact they milk the remaining userbase much more money wise ( digital sales / digital brings in more money for a game / subscription model / online connections ) and are going to do this with next generation also with increased prices etc.

Gaming market is booming like nothing else, more and more consumers are playing games then ever before each year again yet the demograph isn't joining consoles. It gets even worse if you realize most gamers probably own multiple consoles on top of it which reduces it even more.

Just look at this:



PS3 was considered a dud last generation for most of its gen and crawled out of the shitter just at the end, PS4 is a massive juggernaut of a console success and barely sold more then the PS3 even while xbox one was a complete a total disaster on every level aka no competition ( add wii-u as disaster with it ). Now lets not even talk about the PS2 numbers in a market that was far far smaller gamer wise.

200m sales is laughable at best, there is absolute no indication there are even 200 million people next generation in the console market to start with let alone just the PS5. There is also no indication sony is doing anything to pump more players into their audience. And that's with a growing gaming consumer market every single year. They will milk the consumers more and more that they have left to keep sales up.

I expect if its a success and they start to realize sooner then later that they need to adjust some decisions they made, about 90-100m at best. As of now i probably think 70m is going to be the target they come out at. I could see them keep this generation short in general to move on to the next faster on top of it through the simple fact they will be outmuscled by xbox series X all gen on performance.
 
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jakinov

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Nintendo it's on the peak year of Switch lifecyle, starting next fiscal year will start to go down. Same year that some AAA multi games will start to be next gen only so decent Switch ports will be too difficult.

When mobile market grew a lot didn't negatively affect home console markets, only the portables. During the recent years PC, consoles and mobile markets grew, only that mobile grew faster. All 3 markets are expected to continue growing. So mobile growth won't affect consoles.

Regarding cloud streaming services, PS Now is the market leader and we know they are working on next gen updates. The other services as of now were just promises (xCloud, Luna) or failures (Stadia, Nvidia). I think MS will perform slightly better with Series X than with XBO but in the long term, during its first year will have a decent launch but PS5 will outsell it with a big margin during the first year, because MS will be focusing more on Game Pass than in Xbox.

I don't think it will. Nintendo has wiggle room with pricing to drive more sales. I think Nintendo is good job at leveraging YouTubers to convince kids to get Switches and also doing a good job at creating party games that make people want to have a Switch if they have friends. We'll see though.

It hasn't in the past strongly but I think as mobile gaming gets better. There are people that more people are completely satisfied with what they have. COD Mobile, Fornite and PUBG, aren't the kinds of games they had during the start of this generation (and we don't have one of them right now either :pie_wfwt:).I don't think that mobile will take a big chunk but I can see some people who would have traditionally bought a console decide to just play mobile games. Whether or not traditional gaming growing still, I dunno, but with PC and all the other stuff, we don't know if it will necessarily go to consoles.Now that people have 0 consoles and so many options available things can go differently than last gen when things were not the same starting off.

I think going forward the cloud services become more appealing when a new big game comes out that's next-gen only people have the opportunity to start playing at a much lower cost. I can't predict how big will be but I think it's have some kind of impact. Probably not a massive one. But with all the things I mentioned combined, I don't see console gaming growing like the analysts thinks because I don't see many factors on why people would want to adopt console gaming more in the future.
 

jigglet

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The only way it can reach 200 million is if Sony drops their knees and sucks China's cock. Otherwise it just can't happen.
 

jigglet

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I don't think it will. Nintendo has wiggle room with pricing to drive more sales. I think Nintendo is good job at leveraging YouTubers to convince kids to get Switches and also doing a good job at creating party games that make people want to have a Switch if they have friends. We'll see though.

Nintendo has had many opportunities to have a console sell enough to rival PS2 (if you include all the "refreshed" versions), however their tendency to burn the house to the ground every generation is what stops them. They hit the reset button their eshops. Barely anything transfers over. Backwards compatibility is meh. There are no persistent accounts that can smooth the transition - hell, even their whole account system was rebooted between Wii U and Switch...wtf? They pour gasoline on everything and start again, killing whatever momentum they had. I think we'll see a smartly designed Switch 4k, then after that they'll burn the house to the ground yet again...restart virtual console, reboot their account system, have nothing transfer over etc etc. Such a shambles of a company when it comes to long term continuity of their player base.
 
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Wizz-Art

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Quick, someone tell him that the new Elder Scrolls, Fall Out, Doom, Wolfenstein, The Evil Within and Dishonored won't come to PS5!
 
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Kagey K

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The only way it can reach 200 million is if Sony drops their knees and sucks China's cock. Otherwise it just can't happen.
The Chinese aren’t known for loving walking simulators, so I’m not sure how Sonys Cinematic view of gaming would go for them.
 
May 8, 2020
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Overexageration but 150m is doable. Xbox as a brand is still the weakest its ever been. The battle will be 2022/2023 and how ready Sony is with content for those years and how their marketing department shapes up to dominate the narratives for those years - which is abysmal atm and hopefully gets a course correction, if not personal correction (starting with the guy at the TOP).

They have the brand and the mind share. The question is, will their suits execute, specially marketing, since the other departments are doing a fine job (content, hardware, services).
 
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Kagey K

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Overexageration but 150m is doable. Xbox as a brand is still the weakest its ever been. The battle will be 2022/2023 and how ready they're with content for those years and how their marketing department shapes up - which is abysmal atm.

They have the brand and the mindshare. The question is, will their suits execute, specially marketing, since the other departments are doing a fine job (content, hardware, services).
I’d be willing to bet we see the PS5 contract from the PS4. Like barely hit 100mil.

Too many people are too content for Sony to just keep doing what they are doing, instead of seeing what they are doing wrong.
 

yurinka

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I don't think it will. Nintendo has wiggle room with pricing to drive more sales. I think Nintendo is good job at leveraging YouTubers to convince kids to get Switches and also doing a good job at creating party games that make people want to have a Switch if they have friends. We'll see though.

It hasn't in the past strongly but I think as mobile gaming gets better. There are people that more people are completely satisfied with what they have. COD Mobile, Fornite and PUBG, aren't the kinds of games they had during the start of this generation (and we don't have one of them right now either :pie_wfwt:).I don't think that mobile will take a big chunk but I can see some people who would have traditionally bought a console decide to just play mobile games. Whether or not traditional gaming growing still, I dunno, but with PC and all the other stuff, we don't know if it will necessarily go to consoles.Now that people have 0 consoles and so many options available things can go differently than last gen when things were not the same starting off.

I think going forward the cloud services become more appealing when a new big game comes out that's next-gen only people have the opportunity to start playing at a much lower cost. I can't predict how big will be but I think it's have some kind of impact. Probably not a massive one. But with all the things I mentioned combined, I don't see console gaming growing like the analysts thinks because I don't see many factors on why people would want to adopt console gaming more in the future.
I did work for 11 years on mobile gaming, in top companies. I heard that for many years that mobile was going to replace consoles and never happened and I'm sure it will never happen. I know that even if some players play or will play on both console and mobile, mobile will never replace console.

First because of the controls: console gamers want to play with a pad, not with a touchscreen. And the grip to use a gamepad on the mobile works at home but not in a bus, train or in the subway, even the more gamers play on the touchscreen.

Then because of the business model. Console gamers don't like aggresive gatchas, farming and ads stuff. They want a traditional paid game with no ads and this doesn't work on mobile for 99.99% of the games. Then there's the visibility: mobile markets are too saturated and only a few companies con survive there several years, because it requires an insane marketing budget. Even big companies struggle to compete against like a dozen or so of companies who dominate the market.

Then there's the demographics: traditional gamers are a minority in the mobile market, where a big majority are casual players, so the games that work there are more casual, and its controls and shorter game sessions natural for portable devices fit better with a casual audience. This makes several console genres to don't work well in mobile.

Streaming won't be big in the next 10-20 years because fiber optics have a poor global coverage and never will have a 100% coverage. 4G still has a poor global coverage right now, so 5G will take many years to have a great global coverage everywhere. Then some of the main gaming markets/countries have data caps on their internet connections. And around 2/3 of the players use wifi to play, so until wifi 6 becames the standard in both gaming devices or routers (first wifi 6 were released last year, they are too expensive right now) it will be difficult to introduce proper streaming in homes. An guess what, the newest high end phones and PS5 have wifi 6, while Series X and Switch don't.

I think game streaming and VR will grow this generation but will continue being secondary and limited to a few countries, won't be mainstream until maybe 5-10 years, and won't replace consoles until 10-20 years. And PS Now and PSVR2 will continue as the market leaders in these markets. Regarding streaming, because the DualSense will be the gamepad with the lowest input lag in the market and PS5 the only console with wifi6, in addition to PS Now having the largest game streaming catalag with a ton of exclusives and classics from several generations and PS4+PS5 will have a huge market share and PS Now is going to be the only streaming service available there. And well, PS Now will be available on mobile and PC too. So if you want to play on mobile you'll have it there too.
 
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dvdvideo

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They don't have stronger competitors, the only Series X launch game is an indie game with a hawk. The only Series X AAA exclusive during a year or almost two is going to be Halo. PS5 is going to have a way stronger catalog on exclusives during at least the first couple of years.

The real competition will start on late 2022 or 2023, once MS starts releasing their big games. It may be too late.


Apple already released 2 consoles: Pippin and Apple TV. Let's say they didn't perform very well. They are happy selling iOS devices and just collecting 30% of its games that other companies make. Switch 4k and Switch portable as of now are fanboy dreams. Oculus Quest has difficulties to compete against PSVR, so won't be able to compete with PS4 or PS5.

The PC market has been growing for years, and that didn't stop consoles and specially PS, growth. Specially because PC market is more focused on F2P games while consoles are more focused on paid games.


There are several PS5 selling points people still have to see or realize. One of them is PS5 loading times being smaller than 1 or 2 seconds. It will make a difference for many people.

Switch portable exists now and will continue to be a competitor. Switch 4k will release within a year, there is little doubt. Don't underestimate oculus now that its at a mass market price. Apple, Amazon and Google have never released a real console, and that could change at any time.
 
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I’d be willing to bet we see the PS5 contract from the PS4. Like barely hit 100mil.

Too many people are too content for Sony to just keep doing what they are doing, instead of seeing what they are doing wrong.

I can see it going the other way too as you described. Perhaps not strictly for those reasons.

I'm not confident in Eric Lempel as head of marketing, much less in BSer Jim Ryan realizing he has an image problem slowly metastasizing needing course correction before it gets out hand. As Microsoft suits love to say, it's about perception management.
 
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Orta

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Yeah, sure it will you daft cunts. Now get back to wanking over octopus porn.
 

Kagey K

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I can see it going the other way too. I'm not confident in Eric Lempel as head of marketing, much less in BSer Jim Ryan realizing he has an image problem needing course correction before it gets out hand. As Microsoft loves to say, it's about perception management.
That’s fine, there’s not right or wrong at this time.

I just dont see how they do almost 1.25 better now, than they did then.

It’s almost an impossible feat. (By my numbers they still don’t get close and that’s the absolute best they can hope to grow)
 
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Stilton Disco

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Ah, I do love the wildly misinformed opinions of people paid huge some of money, by companies that then blindly follow the advice off a cliff.

It's people like this that mean we end up with ridiculous sums of money invested in mad, obviously destined to never be as big as they're told schemes, like the Udraw Tablet, VR and Game Streaming.
 

ExKing

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I’m not sure they reach that. 90 is my top end for them and that’s only if they release a ton of special editions and possibly a mid gen refresh.

The problem for the PS5 is the biggest competition next 2 years will be the Switch/Switch Pro. And after that Microsoft will just be a beast with huge AAA every 2 months.
 
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Kagey K

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I edited the first statement.... read like in disagreement.
I get what you were trying to say now that you reworded it.
The problem for the PS5 is the biggest competition next 2 years will be the Switch/Switch Pro. And after that Microsoft will just be a beast with huge AAA every 2 months.

I, not even going to argue this shit anymore, if you can’t see the forest coming, that’s on you.

it’s certainly not worth my time.
 
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Stiflers Mom

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It's translated wrong.

He wanted to say that the PS5 will earn them 200 million yen lifetime sales. Which is around 2 million US $.
 

SkylineRKR

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The PS4 can reach 150m. Because AAA support will continue for a while and the system will likely see price reductions and won't leave the market anytime soon. The Pro supports 4K/HDR which is a nice budget option for many. After those announcements I kind of believe it can.

But 200m is impossible. It seems there is some sort of a cap. PS3 + 360 and PS4 + Xbone are the same totals. Even if you factor in Nintendo, who targets a different audience and its handheld solution is an option for PS4 or X1 users alike, the totals don't seem to differ that much.

With the Series X and S likely doing a better job than the X1 did, its unlikely that the PS5 will beat the PS4. Let alone sell 200 million.
 
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Aceofspades

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Nah, won't reach 200m , but it will be highest selling next gen console ... I say around ~100m
 

Aceofspades

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lol it would be lucky to hit 100 million. xbox isnt fucking around this gen, and sony has been fucking up left and right.

MS doesnt have any good exclusives coming out in the next few years though so 100 million might be possible if sony's exclusives are well received. especially if they look way better than their ps4 versions.

MS needs to start showing off starfield, elder scrolls and whatever else these studios are working on because while this is a marathon, MS has shown fuck all so far.

Quit with the drama Slimy 🤣
 
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jakinov

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I did work for 11 years on mobile gaming, in top companies. I heard that for many years that mobile was going to replace consoles and never happened and I'm sure it will never happen. I know that even if some players play or will play on both console and mobile, mobile will never replace console.

First because of the controls: console gamers want to play with a pad, not with a touchscreen. And the grip to use a gamepad on the mobile works at home but not in a bus, train or in the subway, even the more gamers play on the touchscreen.

Then because of the business model. Console gamers don't like aggresive gatchas, farming and ads stuff. They want a traditional paid game with no ads and this doesn't work on mobile for 99.99% of the games. Then there's the visibility: mobile markets are too saturated and only a few companies con survive there several years, because it requires an insane marketing budget. Even big companies struggle to compete against like a dozen or so of companies who dominate the market.

Then there's the demographics: traditional gamers are a minority in the mobile market, where a big majority are casual players, so the games that work there are more casual, and its controls and shorter game sessions natural for portable devices fit better with a casual audience. This makes several console genres to don't work well in mobile.

Streaming won't be big in the next 10-20 years because fiber optics have a poor global coverage and never will have a 100% coverage. 4G still has a poor global coverage right now, so 5G will take many years to have a great global coverage everywhere. Then some of the main gaming markets/countries have data caps on their internet connections. And around 2/3 of the players use wifi to play, so until wifi 6 becames the standard in both gaming devices or routers (first wifi 6 were released last year, they are too expensive right now) it will be difficult to introduce proper streaming in homes. An guess what, the newest high end phones and PS5 have wifi 6, while Series X and Switch don't.

I think game streaming and VR will grow this generation but will continue being secondary and limited to a few countries, won't be mainstream until maybe 5-10 years, and won't replace consoles until 10-20 years. And PS Now and PSVR2 will continue as the market leaders in these markets. Regarding streaming, because the DualSense will be the gamepad with the lowest input lag in the market and PS5 the only console with wifi6, in addition to PS Now having the largest game streaming catalag with a ton of exclusives and classics from several generations and PS4+PS5 will have a huge market share and PS Now is going to be the only streaming service available there. And well, PS Now will be available on mobile and PC too. So if you want to play on mobile you'll have it there too.
I think you misunderstood my original post. I don't think it will replace consoles. I think that there are going to be more (not more than just more) people that do mobile only who traditionally would get a console. How much that is nobody knows.

I don't agree with us being 10-20 years away. It probably won't get too big in the several years though But cloud gaming doesn't have to explode and be big to have an impact on console gaming.

Again my point is that there's a bunch of things that would take away from the PlayStation 5 selling 200M or even the 115M the PS4. I'm not saying it's going to be 0 sales I'm saying because of all the stronger (again not stronger than but stronger) alternatives to console gaming or just other console alternatives. That I don't think you are going to see the crazy growth the analyst is predicting and may even see stagnation or some sort of decline in raw units sold.
 

semicool

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Sure if you divide that 200 million number by 3, then yes, it's likely then.
 
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Endless Fluff

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I could see this happening if the console market was actually growing... but we still haven't seen consoles break 500 million (across all systems), we have been stuck at around 300 million for the past 3 generations, heck, we haven't even seen another console break PS2's record.

That analyst must've been high or something, or is a massive Sony fanboy who is blinded by their current success. lol
 
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Old Retro

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I could see sales of 200 million if they had a big explosion on the box that says:

Plays ALL Playstation, PS2, and PS3 games
 
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yurinka

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I think you misunderstood my original post. I don't think it will replace consoles. I think that there are going to be more (not more than just more) people that do mobile only who traditionally would get a console. How much that is nobody knows.

I don't agree with us being 10-20 years away. It probably won't get too big in the several years though But cloud gaming doesn't have to explode and be big to have an impact on console gaming.

Again my point is that there's a bunch of things that would take away from the PlayStation 5 selling 200M or even the 115M the PS4. I'm not saying it's going to be 0 sales I'm saying because of all the stronger (again not stronger than but stronger) alternatives to console gaming or just other console alternatives. That I don't think you are going to see the crazy growth the analyst is predicting and may even see stagnation or some sort of decline in raw units sold.
I remember when at the start of this generation I was saying that PS4 was going to sell at least 130-140M and people was laughing at me. I think that for several reasons PS5 will outsell PS4.

The main reason is that market console will continue growing since many years ago, and that now Sony is in a better position than when they did start the PS4 gen: bigger install base, smotther transition to next gen thanks to BC and free upgrade PS5 version for free in the main crossgen games and so on, bigger amount of 1st party teams, more important exclusive IPs thanks to the new ones released or rebooted this gen (Horizon, Days Gone, Spiderman, God of War, Bloodborne...), Nintendo and MS with a more different focus compared to Sony so competing less directly, way stronger launch day line-up and 1st year line-up of exclusive games than PS4 and way weaker in MS side (an indie as only next gen only console exclusive on launch day, Halo as only big console exclusive for its first year)...and then there are clues like Sony increasing their manufacturing compared to PS4, fixing/improving some small issues they had at PS4, etc.

Then in gaming there are the two main trends that are streaming and VR, both pioneered in consoles by Sony. They are the ones with the higher experience, game catalog and userbase. We still have to see their public announcement for next gen offerings on these markets, but from many sources we know they are working on PSVR2 and a next gen PS Now. They are in the best position to compete in these markets, and as we know they seem to be addressing the main issues these systems have and applying the logical next gen improvements that according to common sense they should do, as they did with PS5. One of them was to fix their shitty base PS4 wifi and to replace it with a state-of-the-art, future proof wifi6. And then to add Bluetooth 5.1 for the pad. This seems a detail, but it's going to be key for remote play and PS Now specially in the long term, once wifi6 routers become the norm. And this will give them a lead over Series X and Switch regarding streaming.

Until now, streaming and VR have been too small, an anecdote. During this gen, so in the next 7 years or so, we expect them to mature and grow. Yes, they will improve and become bigger, but I think they won't go full mainstream. In the case of game streaming, for the reasons I mentioned and because its business plan doesn't align well with the needs of platform holders and game publishers: in the platform holder side, the costs of servers are a huge moster, and to pay new or important old games to be put their games there is too high, and if instead of doing it in this way to pay them per downloads or play time (like in Spotify/Netflix way) isn't a good business for publishers because the money earned in this way is too low.

This means that they need to rework is business model before scaling it up, one of the reasons of why Sony didn't bring it to all countries (being the other ones the listed in my previous posts).

Sony knows that makes sense to put in subscriptions mostly old games to don't affect its sales and to consider game streaming as a support revenue source for the game once they stopped selling, it works for them, but to attract players adding new games to the subscription as MS does isn't a good business. So maybe they go with a mixed approach: old games streamed from a subscription and new games streamed but purchasing them separatedly of the subscription in a Stadia way, which would also allow players without the console to buy games.

This approach may make sense for both players, publishers and the platform holders. If they don't find something appealing for both 3, they won't be able to scale it, so it won't grow until the limits that the stuff I mentioned in the other post that is limiting the game streaming may allow (good enough internet connections with good fiber or 5G/6G in only a few places instead of worldwide, 2/3 players using wifi and shitty wifi version and shitty routers, important countries with internet data cap, etc).

So I think game streaming will grow this generation, but only until a moderate size. Won't be something big. Next gen PS Now may find the sweet spot in business terms and catalog offering, and at least did they work with wifi, bluetooth and compression (Kraken) hardware to reduce latency, and we'll see if they also did a good job on the codec part (resolution/framerate/image quality to at least match their competition) and in the servers side.

I'm pretty confident they will do a good job, so have an advantage on top of the ones they already have (the biggest game streaming catalog with many old classics, many big PS exclusives, the biggest work experience and knowledge, the biggest userbase and revenue of a game streaming service) to continue leading the game streaming market during this next gen.

I think being game streaming leaders or not won't help them to sell or not a big amount of consoles, because I think game streaming market still will be relatively small even if it's going to grow compared to the current gen. And I think that even if the quality will improve over the current gen, the experience will be noticiably worse than when playing offline for many players, so I think almost all game streaming players will continue also playing on console this gen.

In addition to this, I think that in the same way that the growth of the mobile market didn't stop the console market growth, I think the game streaming market growth won't stop the console gaming market growth. But as I said, I think PS5 won't sell 200M consoles. I expect PS4 to reach around 150M, and PS5 maybe slightly higher than that (maybe around 160M or slightly more). The console market will grow, PS5 will be a better product with a better offering and with competition more focused on other things, and a game streaming market that won't steal users because I think will continue being relatively small and compatible with also playing on the console, and it's likely that the game streaming market leader will continue being PS Now, which will be played best on PS5 due to being able to download games or due to wifi 6 and Bluetooth 5.1.
 
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THEAP99

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Not a chance so long they keep porting games to PC & lying to fans about next gen only games
 
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Zefah

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Is he banking on China embracing consoles or something?
 
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Azelover

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The bar is being set very high.

Will people lose their shits if the PS5 sells "only" 100 million?