Nintendo it's on the peak year of Switch lifecyle, starting next fiscal year will start to go down. Same year that some AAA multi games will start to be next gen only so decent Switch ports will be too difficult.
When mobile market grew a lot didn't negatively affect home console markets, only the portables. During the recent years PC, consoles and mobile markets grew, only that mobile grew faster. All 3 markets are expected to continue growing. So mobile growth won't affect consoles.
Regarding cloud streaming services, PS Now is the market leader and we know they are working on next gen updates. The other services as of now were just promises (xCloud, Luna) or failures (Stadia, Nvidia). I think MS will perform slightly better with Series X than with XBO but in the long term, during its first year will have a decent launch but PS5 will outsell it with a big margin during the first year, because MS will be focusing more on Game Pass than in Xbox.
I don't think it will. Nintendo has wiggle room with pricing to drive more sales. I think Nintendo is good job at leveraging YouTubers to convince kids to get Switches and also doing a good job at creating party games that make people want to have a Switch if they have friends. We'll see though.
I’d be willing to bet we see the PS5 contract from the PS4. Like barely hit 100mil.Overexageration but 150m is doable. Xbox as a brand is still the weakest its ever been. The battle will be 2022/2023 and how ready they're with content for those years and how their marketing department shapes up - which is abysmal atm.
They have the brand and the mindshare. The question is, will their suits execute, specially marketing, since the other departments are doing a fine job (content, hardware, services).
I did work for 11 years on mobile gaming, in top companies. I heard that for many years that mobile was going to replace consoles and never happened and I'm sure it will never happen. I know that even if some players play or will play on both console and mobile, mobile will never replace console.I don't think it will. Nintendo has wiggle room with pricing to drive more sales. I think Nintendo is good job at leveraging YouTubers to convince kids to get Switches and also doing a good job at creating party games that make people want to have a Switch if they have friends. We'll see though.
It hasn't in the past strongly but I think as mobile gaming gets better. There are people that more people are completely satisfied with what they have. COD Mobile, Fornite and PUBG, aren't the kinds of games they had during the start of this generation (and we don't have one of them right now either ).I don't think that mobile will take a big chunk but I can see some people who would have traditionally bought a console decide to just play mobile games. Whether or not traditional gaming growing still, I dunno, but with PC and all the other stuff, we don't know if it will necessarily go to consoles.Now that people have 0 consoles and so many options available things can go differently than last gen when things were not the same starting off.
I think going forward the cloud services become more appealing when a new big game comes out that's next-gen only people have the opportunity to start playing at a much lower cost. I can't predict how big will be but I think it's have some kind of impact. Probably not a massive one. But with all the things I mentioned combined, I don't see console gaming growing like the analysts thinks because I don't see many factors on why people would want to adopt console gaming more in the future.
They don't have stronger competitors, the only Series X launch game is an indie game with a hawk. The only Series X AAA exclusive during a year or almost two is going to be Halo. PS5 is going to have a way stronger catalog on exclusives during at least the first couple of years.
The real competition will start on late 2022 or 2023, once MS starts releasing their big games. It may be too late.
Apple already released 2 consoles: Pippin and Apple TV. Let's say they didn't perform very well. They are happy selling iOS devices and just collecting 30% of its games that other companies make. Switch 4k and Switch portable as of now are fanboy dreams. Oculus Quest has difficulties to compete against PSVR, so won't be able to compete with PS4 or PS5.
The PC market has been growing for years, and that didn't stop consoles and specially PS, growth. Specially because PC market is more focused on F2P games while consoles are more focused on paid games.
There are several PS5 selling points people still have to see or realize. One of them is PS5 loading times being smaller than 1 or 2 seconds. It will make a difference for many people.
I’d be willing to bet we see the PS5 contract from the PS4. Like barely hit 100mil.
Too many people are too content for Sony to just keep doing what they are doing, instead of seeing what they are doing wrong.
That’s fine, there’s not right or wrong at this time.I can see it going the other way too. I'm not confident in Eric Lempel as head of marketing, much less in BSer Jim Ryan realizing he has an image problem needing course correction before it gets out hand. As Microsoft loves to say, it's about perception management.
I’m not sure they reach that. 90 is my top end for them and that’s only if they release a ton of special editions and possibly a mid gen refresh.
I get what you were trying to say now that you reworded it.I edited the first statement.... read like in disagreement.
The problem for the PS5 is the biggest competition next 2 years will be the Switch/Switch Pro. And after that Microsoft will just be a beast with huge AAA every 2 months.
lol it would be lucky to hit 100 million. xbox isnt fucking around this gen, and sony has been fucking up left and right.
MS doesnt have any good exclusives coming out in the next few years though so 100 million might be possible if sony's exclusives are well received. especially if they look way better than their ps4 versions.
MS needs to start showing off starfield, elder scrolls and whatever else these studios are working on because while this is a marathon, MS has shown fuck all so far.
I think you misunderstood my original post. I don't think it will replace consoles. I think that there are going to be more (not more than just more) people that do mobile only who traditionally would get a console. How much that is nobody knows.I did work for 11 years on mobile gaming, in top companies. I heard that for many years that mobile was going to replace consoles and never happened and I'm sure it will never happen. I know that even if some players play or will play on both console and mobile, mobile will never replace console.
First because of the controls: console gamers want to play with a pad, not with a touchscreen. And the grip to use a gamepad on the mobile works at home but not in a bus, train or in the subway, even the more gamers play on the touchscreen.
Then because of the business model. Console gamers don't like aggresive gatchas, farming and ads stuff. They want a traditional paid game with no ads and this doesn't work on mobile for 99.99% of the games. Then there's the visibility: mobile markets are too saturated and only a few companies con survive there several years, because it requires an insane marketing budget. Even big companies struggle to compete against like a dozen or so of companies who dominate the market.
Then there's the demographics: traditional gamers are a minority in the mobile market, where a big majority are casual players, so the games that work there are more casual, and its controls and shorter game sessions natural for portable devices fit better with a casual audience. This makes several console genres to don't work well in mobile.
Streaming won't be big in the next 10-20 years because fiber optics have a poor global coverage and never will have a 100% coverage. 4G still has a poor global coverage right now, so 5G will take many years to have a great global coverage everywhere. Then some of the main gaming markets/countries have data caps on their internet connections. And around 2/3 of the players use wifi to play, so until wifi 6 becames the standard in both gaming devices or routers (first wifi 6 were released last year, they are too expensive right now) it will be difficult to introduce proper streaming in homes. An guess what, the newest high end phones and PS5 have wifi 6, while Series X and Switch don't.
I think game streaming and VR will grow this generation but will continue being secondary and limited to a few countries, won't be mainstream until maybe 5-10 years, and won't replace consoles until 10-20 years. And PS Now and PSVR2 will continue as the market leaders in these markets. Regarding streaming, because the DualSense will be the gamepad with the lowest input lag in the market and PS5 the only console with wifi6, in addition to PS Now having the largest game streaming catalag with a ton of exclusives and classics from several generations and PS4+PS5 will have a huge market share and PS Now is going to be the only streaming service available there. And well, PS Now will be available on mobile and PC too. So if you want to play on mobile you'll have it there too.
I remember when at the start of this generation I was saying that PS4 was going to sell at least 130-140M and people was laughing at me. I think that for several reasons PS5 will outsell PS4.I think you misunderstood my original post. I don't think it will replace consoles. I think that there are going to be more (not more than just more) people that do mobile only who traditionally would get a console. How much that is nobody knows.
I don't agree with us being 10-20 years away. It probably won't get too big in the several years though But cloud gaming doesn't have to explode and be big to have an impact on console gaming.
Again my point is that there's a bunch of things that would take away from the PlayStation 5 selling 200M or even the 115M the PS4. I'm not saying it's going to be 0 sales I'm saying because of all the stronger (again not stronger than but stronger) alternatives to console gaming or just other console alternatives. That I don't think you are going to see the crazy growth the analyst is predicting and may even see stagnation or some sort of decline in raw units sold.