Media Create Sales 2/19 - 2/25

Thraktor

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Roders5 said:
But why would shipments go up and down between 60 and 80 every other week?
Maybe consoles are produced on a 2-day basis, 7 days a week? That'd put even weeks at three production cycles per week and odd weeks at four, corresponding quite closely to what we're seeing in hardware sales (which would put it at 20,000 consoles per cycle).
 

PantherLotus

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Thraktor said:
Maybe consoles are produced on a 2-day basis, 7 days a week? That'd put even weeks at three production cycles per week and odd weeks at four, corresponding quite closely to what we're seeing in hardware sales (which would put it at 20,000 consoles per cycle).
Pikmin don't work on Sundays. They have prayers to answer.
 

Thraktor

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PantherLotus said:
Pikmin don't work on Sundays. They have prayers to answer.
I figured as much, but the same theory based on a five-day week would produce much bigger differences than we're seeing, so I went with what fit the data.
 

AlphaSnake

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Can we get a new thread for the new sales results, please? This is sort of stupid.
 

felipeko

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AlphaSnake said:
Can we get a new thread for the new sales results, please? This is sort of stupid.
We still don't have Media Create Numbers, software numbers will come out in 9-10 hours, hardware tomorrow, same time.
 

Jokeropia

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AlphaSnake said:
Can we get a new thread for the new sales results, please? This is sort of stupid.
There will be a new thread when the official Media Create figures get released. (~8 hours from now.) All we have so far are a few rounded Famitsu numbers.
 

Neomoto

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vanguardian1 said:
We hear about how special Nintendo's Wii in on a pretty regular basis, but now we are set to see some real action as a group of Japan's finest developers join forces for a new project. The latest issue of Famitsu magazine has revealed that Marvelous Interactive (Harvest Moon, Rune Factory, Luminous Arc), CING (Another Code, Hotel Dusk) and Townfactory are all working together on a new project that will be released on Nintendo's Wii. At present it is scheduled for a 2008 release and is simply titled 'Project O', being classed as a new genre along the lines of SimEarth.

For those wondering who Townfactory is, it consists of Kimura Shourou who worked on a few Lovedelic games like Moon and LOL, as well as Chulip on PlayStation 2. In addition there is Hideo Minaba, an ex-Square Enix art director who is currently working with Mistwalker for character designs on the highly anticpated RPG project Archaic Sealed Heat (aka A.S.H.). On top of this there is Kazuyuki Kurashima, a graphic artist that created monster and art designs for Square Enix on the Super Mario RPG (SNES) release, plus recently did animation work on Freshly Picked Tingle's Rosey Rupeeland (DS). Fact fans should note he worked alongside Shourou-san on Moon and LOL.
That's pretty awesome!


Nice sales for.. everything I guess :)
 

Thraktor

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I can't quite let this thread die without one last post filled with numbers, charts and questionable-extrapolation-of-current-trends, and I was looking at Wii Sports attach rate data for a post earlier, so here you all go:

First, the numbers and chart:

Code:
Week	Wii Hardware / Week	Wii Sports / Week	Attach Rate / Week	Wii Hardware / LTD	Wii Sports / LTD		Attach Rate / LTD
03/12/06	350358			176167			0.50				350358			176167			0.50
10/12/06	85439			72382			0.85				435797			248549			0.57
17/12/06	108237			69923			0.65				544034			318472			0.59
24/12/06	279277			152756			0.55				823311			471228			0.57
31/12/06	96332			95479			0.99				919643			566707			0.62
07/01/07	195331			166011			0.85				1114974			732718			0.66
14/01/07	93708			61399			0.66				1208682			794117			0.66
21/01/07	86395			57418			0.66				1295077			851535			0.66
28/01/07	83754			58886			0.70				1378831			910421			0.66
04/02/07	65740			48236			0.73				1444571			958657			0.66
11/02/07	78550			45897			0.58				1523121			1004554			0.66
18/02/07	63618			39128			0.62				1586739			1043682			0.66
25/02/07	78506			47053			0.60				1665245			1090735			0.65


As you can see, the week-to-week attach rate compared to Wii hardware sales has been constantly high, and the overall attach rate has actually climbed since launch. The game reached an LTD attach rate "plateau" of 66% over a seven-week period, and is now very slightly declining.

The big difference between the week of 24th December and the week of 31st December is an indication that the game was most likely supply-constrained on the first week, and a lot of people who bought the console the first week got the game when it came back in stock the second. Either that or many consoles were bought the first week as presents without games, and after receiving their new Wiis, people went off to buy Wii Sports the second week. Either way, the two weeks average out to a 66% attach rate, right in line with other weeks.

Now, the ridiculous prediction:

Due to the possibility of software supply-constraints affecting the first 6/7 weeks, I'm only going to consider the week of 14th January onwards, as that's the point weekly and LTD attach rates converged. Over this 6-week period, the game's LTD attach rate dipped by 0.20%. Presuming a five-year console cycle (that'd be 247 weeks left) and 20 million Wii console sales by the end of it (it's tracking fairly close to the PS2, so why not), the game will decline at a steady rate to an end-of-life attach ratio of 57.3%, or just under 11.5 million sales. This will make it not only the highest selling game of all time in Japan by quite a margin (beating out combined Pokemon Red/Green sales), but it will have double the attach rate of NSMB (which I believe is currently at the highest attach rate of any game on a popular system in Japan).

Note: the above prediction assumes that no significant new games will ever come out for the Wii, and that there is no such thing as market saturation.
 

Parl

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I disagree. My prediction is that Wii won't even sell close to 20 million and those who buy it will be more hardcore oriented gamers starting in October of this year. This will mean that because of Wii's market, Wii Sports's attach rate will decline to below 10% per week and with Wii selling a maximum of 7 million console by the end of its life cycle, Wii Sports will sell significantly less than 2 million when it's all said and done.

Note: The above prediction assumes that Microsoft will release a cultural phenomenon for the Xbox 360 in October that will sky-rocket Xbox 360 sales to an average of 140,000 per week, making Xbox 360 the clear winner of the console war in Japan.
 
farnham said:
60k is not that much for the leading platform..
? Compared to anything before DS, yes it is.
farnham said:
uh.. the PS2 consistantly sold over 70k when my knowledge is right with several bumps over 150k in its lifespan
See for yourself. Frequently above 70K? Yes. Usually? No.

Actually, try this one. I put a cap of 70K on it, so any week that actually shows up there is below 70K.
 
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Really, why do people expect a drop-off with the Wii? It's been selling on Wii Sports and Play. You think that Animal Crossing, Super Mario Galaxy, and the inevitable Brain Age/Nintendogs Wii ames won't make a difference?
 

Eteric Rice

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Parl said:
I disagree. My prediction is that Wii won't even sell close to 20 million and those who buy it will be more hardcore oriented gamers starting in October of this year. This will mean that because of Wii's market, Wii Sports's attach rate will decline to below 10% per week and with Wii selling a maximum of 7 million console by the end of its life cycle, Wii Sports will sell significantly less than 2 million when it's all said and done.

Note: The above prediction assumes that Microsoft will release a cultural phenomenon for the Xbox 360 in October that will sky-rocket Xbox 360 sales to an average of 140,000 per week, making Xbox 360 the clear winner of the console war in Japan.
:lol
 

SuomiDude

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DeaconKnowledge said:
PSP was at 100k for ONE week. It was an exception because of MHP2; nobody expected it to stay that high.

I agree that the Wii's drop isn't that bad, but it's the worst the Wii's ever been. (Or am I mistaken? Has the Wii been below 60k since launch?)
I didn't expect it to stay at 100K either, but saying 60K for PSP is good while for Wii it's bad, doesn't make sense. PSP sales dropped 40K according to those early (not official) numbers, Wii dropped "only" 20K. And as I said, Wii is still selling out (it does that in every part of the world it seems), and as is shown in those lately weekly numbers, Wii has been doing that 80K/60K/80K/60K for a while.
 

farnham

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SuomiDude said:
I didn't expect it to stay at 100K either, but saying 60K for PSP is good while for Wii it's bad, doesn't make sense. PSP sales dropped 40K according to those early (not official) numbers, Wii dropped "only" 20K. And as I said, Wii is still selling out (it does that in every part of the world it seems), and as is shown in those lately weekly numbers, Wii has been doing that 80K/60K/80K/60K for a while.

i did not know that the Wii was still supply constrained in japan.. and that the shipments were constantly at 80k , 60k.....

that means about 300 to 400k for one month doesnt it...

hmmm nintendo needs to bump up their production fast..
 

SuomiDude

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farnham said:
i did not know that the Wii was still supply constrained in japan.. and that the shipments were constantly at 80k , 60k.....

that means about 300 to 400k for one month doesnt it...

hmmm nintendo needs to bump up their production fast..
I can't say that for sure either, but that's what I've heard all around, and what I've witnessed myself. But wasn't Nintendo suppose to up the production, starting in March? I think they were, so next week or a week after, we could see even some 100K numbers for Wii.

Wish we would see some better numbers for XBox 360 and PS3 as well, though PS3 seemed to get decent boost from that Gundam Musou game. Now if it only could hold those sales for a while and then start getting higher.
 

KINGMOKU

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NintendosBooger said:
No, it's wait 'till Little Big Planet.
:lol Everything Sony showed looked great,but if the PS3 keeps selling poorly, how much time and effort will be put into these things down the road?
 

pswii60

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moku said:
:lol Everything Sony showed looked great,but if the PS3 keeps selling poorly, how much time and effort will be put into these things down the road?

From a first party perspective, I reckon we would see more play-safe games. But strangely enough, outside of Viva Pinata, MS have been 'playing safe' since day one. I'm surprised we haven't seen more innovation from MS considering the leadership position they are in - it should mean they can take more risks.

Little Big Planet is very refreshing.
 

djtiesto

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moku said:
:lol Everything Sony showed looked great,but if the PS3 keeps selling poorly, how much time and effort will be put into these things down the road?
Usually when a company is suffering in the marketplace, there is more of a focus on first party stuff, and the first party puts in a lot of extra effort and tries more niche/new IP titles. We saw this with both the N64 and the Dreamcast.
 

Mar

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I didn't expect PS3 numbers to be that low. That's kind of worrying.

So... Ridge Racer strike 1. Virtua Fighter strike 2. Gundam strike 3. Is Sony out'a there? Walking back to the dug out? What's the next game coming out for Sony where they can have another swing at the ball?

I'm starting to be concerned about where my next Silent Hill fix will be coming from. Or maybe that's just a preposterous thought... Maybe.
 

Parl

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NintendosBooger said:
No, it's wait 'till Little Big Planet.
We waited for Zelda and it didn't help N64 all that much. However, PlayStation 3 is simply magic. Every single big game will help it turn the console war around... Except for Virtual Fighter 5 and the VERY magical compound of Gundam and Mousu.
 

Moor-Angol

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SuomiDude said:
I didn't expect it to stay at 100K either, but saying 60K for PSP is good while for Wii it's bad, doesn't make sense. PSP sales dropped 40K according to those early (not official) numbers, Wii dropped "only" 20K.
Another point is: PSP was still trained by MHP2 hype, Wii didn't have any strong release in the week

In April Nintendo will raise Wii manufactoring, so let's prepare to see Wii sales at least at 60k per week for long time
 

chibcicylist

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An unnamed website says the Wii is actually in 2nd place and the PSP is back to third with just under 65K for the latter.

FE is at number 11 in the software charts, 1000 behind Brain Training 2's amazing legs.
 

Xeke

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chibcicylist said:
An unnamed website says the Wii is actually in 2nd place and the PSP is back to third with just under 65K for the latter.

FE is at number 11 in the software charts, 1000 behind Brain Training 2's amazing legs.
Unnamed huh...Gee I wonder what site that is...
 

legend166

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Do we have a release date for Dragon Quest Swords yet? Maybe every second week Nintendo hoards 20 000 Wii's to release when Dragon Quest Swords comes out.


I can dream, right?
 

verplant

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Xeke said:
Unnamed huh...Gee I wonder what site that is...
Hmm... I wonder how many dices ioi throws to get these numbers...



legend166 said:
Do we have a release date for Dragon Quest Swords yet? Maybe every second week Nintendo hoards 20 000 Wii's to release when Dragon Quest Swords comes out.


I can dream, right?
No release in march/april... may/june-lineup not offical yet.
 

KINGMOKU

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Can someone explain to me how Nintendo is splitting Wii's up for each territory?


If its selling out both in the U.S. and Japan, Jan Numbers average out to 90,000 a week for the U.S. , and 70,000 a week for Japan, 5week month, e.t.c.


How many are they producing/shipping around the world a month? 1-1.3million a month?

Can't they get at least 100,000 a week to both the States, and Japan? I dont get these numbers at all.

Maybe Europe/rest of the world is eating up a big portion of monthly Wii alotments or something.


It would seem the biggest problem with getting an accurate overall global picture is the lack of sales figures from everywhere not North America/Japan.
 

verplant

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moku said:
Can someone explain to me how Nintendo is splitting Wii's up for each territory?


If its selling out both in the U.S. and Japan, Jan Numbers average out to 90,000 a week for the U.S. , and 70,000 a week for Japan, 5week month, e.t.c.


How many are they producing/shipping around the world a month? 1-1.3million a month?

Can't they get at least 100,000 a week to both the States, and Japan? I dont get these numbers at all.

Maybe Europe/rest of the world is eating up a big portion of monthly Wii alotments or something.


It would seem the biggest problem with getting an accurate overall global picture is the lack of sales figures from everywhere not North America/Japan.
they shipped 3.2 mio on dec 31... and will ship 6 mio. on march 31... so there will be less than 1 mio. per month.
 

vanguardian1

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verplant said:
they shipped 3.2 mio on dec 31... and will ship 6 mio. on march 31... so there will be less than 1 mio. per month.
Uhm, no, their press release stated "produced 4 million, sold 3.2 million to consumers, missing 800k in transit/warehouse".
 

enishi

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Moor-Angol said:
In April Nintendo will raise Wii manufactoring, so let's prepare to see Wii sales at least at 60k per week for long time
They need more than that. Mario on April, considering the strong selling of NSMB, it could be the killer if it is promoted right (I didn't see any promotion of this game often...)
 

Frankfurter

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moku said:
Can someone explain to me how Nintendo is splitting Wii's up for each territory?


If its selling out both in the U.S. and Japan, Jan Numbers average out to 90,000 a week for the U.S. , and 70,000 a week for Japan, 5week month, e.t.c.


How many are they producing/shipping around the world a month? 1-1.3million a month?

Can't they get at least 100,000 a week to both the States, and Japan? I dont get these numbers at all.

Maybe Europe/rest of the world is eating up a big portion of monthly Wii alotments or something.


It would seem the biggest problem with getting an accurate overall global picture is the lack of sales figures from everywhere not North America/Japan.
They are probably producing arround a million at the moment, so that's only sth. like 225k per week. If USA and Japan ate up 160k of that for January, than that just leaves 65k for the whole rest of the world. ~6-10k alone probably went to Canada, another ~6-10k to Australia and NZ, so that only leaves ~50k for Europe (which is still also facing pretty huge shortages as it seems).

Short answer to your question: nope, they probably can't get 100k per week to the USA and Japan at the moment because that wouldn't leave enough units for the rest of the world.
 
legend166 said:
Do we have a release date for Dragon Quest Swords yet? Maybe every second week Nintendo hoards 20 000 Wii's to release when Dragon Quest Swords comes out.


I can dream, right?
While I would not be surprised to see some held back for that game's launch, it doesn't appear to be in the immediate future. I'm not sure if it was one of the recent Japanese magazine news threads or what, but I'm sure there was recent word the game was at ~80% completion.
moku said:
Can someone explain to me how Nintendo is splitting Wii's up for each territory?

If its selling out both in the U.S. and Japan, Jan Numbers average out to 90,000 a week for the U.S. , and 70,000 a week for Japan, 5week month, e.t.c.

How many are they producing/shipping around the world a month? 1-1.3million a month?

Can't they get at least 100,000 a week to both the States, and Japan? I dont get these numbers at all.
Latest word is that it's still at 1 million each month. Considering months average to about 4 1/3 weeks, if Japan and NA got 100K each week that would account for something like 867K each month.

moku said:
Maybe Europe/rest of the world is eating up a big portion of monthly Wii alotments or something.
Using your numbers of 70K/w Japan and 90K/w NA, that would account for 700K each month. Europe and the smaller markets are getting the short end of the stick if anything.