Moor-Angol
Banned
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
i think they could, cause they already did with Minna no Golf 4 The Best
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Media Create Sales 3/17 - 3/23
- Thread starter Cheesemeister
- Start date
i think they could, cause they already did with Minna no Golf 4 The Best
Phife Dawg
Member
No word on the release date iirc.kottila said:
splattergnome
Member
I am just curious how successful Fatal Frame IV will be. On the one hand, it -is- a hardcore franchise, which will probably limit its success - on the other hand, it is niche enough that its core fanbase will probably buy a Wii to buy it. And since it is being published by Nintendo, it will probably be very well promoted. I think that Fatal Frame will be a major test whether original games of "traditional" hardcore franchises can success on the Wii or not.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
splattergnome said:
(pre-wii sequel's total sales)*(.80)*(wii's install base)*(.005)=(sequel's LTD)
If you include (wii's install base) in your formula, don't you need to include the previous platforms' there as well for it to make sense?PantherLotus said:
And anyway, install base is massively overrated when it comes to this type of game. (See e.g. Disgaea 3's 60% (at least) sales on <10% base)
Durante said:
I'm not sure how reliable install base is for any specific game, actually, and definitely not for this type, I agree.
The relevance of install base is only apparent in the larger scheme, when you zoom out far enough. Lots of Wii titles have bombed in Japan, for example -- the third party's lack of success is a constant worry. But if you zoom out farther and include first party, whaddya know? The Wii has sold a very solid amount of software given its LTD install base.
Not to suggest that those smaller sample sizes can't be important -- just that I don't think install base can really be a strong indicator of a game's success/failure until you're looking at the macro level.
It will depend on how Famitsu decided to treat the reprint. With Famicom Mini: Super Mario Bros., Nintendo did a reprint of the game 18 months after release, and Famitsu treated the reprint as though it was just a new shipment of the original release, and its sales were counted towards the original release. So at this point, we don't know if MHP Best Price reprint was treated as a separate SKU, or if it was just counted as an extra shipment of the original Best Price release.Rock_Man said:
Someone might have to compare the boxarts of the Best Price release and the reprint, but if it was really just a new shipment of the original Best Price release, then I would guess that it was not tracked separately by Famitsu. However, if it was a brand new product with a new SKU, then we might see it in the Top 500 chart at the end of the year. But I'm leaning towards the former.
Psychotext
Member
That's right. 8,659 in May 07.m3k said:
Dalthien said:
According to GameFAQs, it was a reprint of the regular version as opposed to a reprint of the BEST version. What does that mean? No clue. It's too bad we weren't getting Famitsu outside the top 30 numbers back in April (that I know of). It might've given us an idea if Famitsu counted it as a new release.
Until Rock_Man mentioned it, I didn't realize there was a reprint of the first Monster Hunter Portable. In that case, cvxfreak's desire to see a 2007 Top 500 to see if the total of the three went over 1 million is well-founded.
On a side note, DS9 is my favorite TV Trek series.
donny2112 said:According to GameFAQs, it was a reprint of the regular version as opposed to a reprint of the BEST version. What does that mean? No clue. It's too bad we weren't getting Famitsu outside the top 30 numbers back in April (that I know of). It might've given us an idea if Famitsu counted it as a new release.
Until Rock_Man mentioned it, I didn't realize there was a reprint of the first Monster Hunter Portable. In that case, cvxfreak's desire to see a 2007 Top 500 to see if the total of the three went over 1 million is well-founded.
On a side note, DS9 is my favorite TV Trek series.
There were others?
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Just checked some more and I think there's going to be a new SKU.donny2112 said:According to GameFAQs, it was a reprint of the regular version as opposed to a reprint of the BEST version. What does that mean? No clue. It's too bad we weren't getting Famitsu outside the top 30 numbers back in April (that I know of). It might've given us an idea if Famitsu counted it as a new release.
Until Rock_Man mentioned it, I didn't realize there was a reprint of the first Monster Hunter Portable. In that case, cvxfreak's desire to see a 2007 Top 500 to see if the total of the three went over 1 million is well-founded.
On a side note, DS9 is my favorite TV Trek series.
Minna no Golf 4 The Best! - 3,800Y - 8th July 2004
Minna no Golf 4 The Best! - 2,800Y - 2nd November 2005
Famitsu took them as different SKUs (different price, also cover due to the price...). See also different region code, SCPS19301 and SCPS19319.
Monster Hunter Portable The Best! - 3,129Y - 3rd August 2006
Monster Hunter Portable The Best! - 2,079Y - 26th April 2007
As you can see, there's no difference in the cover (because it doesn't say the price) but the price IS different, also if you see the links they have different codes, ULJM08010 and ULJM08014.
Also I doubt it sold 0 in the last 6 months of 2007, thats what the original The Best! re-release did, the reprint with lower price should have sold something in those 6 months to add to the time it was available in the first 6. If its 40,132 or more, PSP will have its second million seller.
Oh, and what about Ryu ga Gotoku?
http://www.jp.playstation.com/software/title/slpm74234.html
http://www.jp.playstation.com/software/title/slpm74253.html
Same price, different cover, different codes :lol
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
That's exactly what I was thinking. As I said, I've seen the reprint edition in the weekly top 50 both in 2007 and 2008, so the game is still selling and it's very likely that it has sold 40k too.
On the other hand, it's still possible that MC/Famitsu overtracked the original release so that the actual sales haven't quite reached a million yet. A lower shipment number would imply that, but I don't know what it is.
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
PantherLotus said:
Durante said:
I'm saying it will sell 80% of what FF3 did with an addition 5/1000'ths to account for the total install base of the Wii. The assumption is that the previous title already has the install base of its home console figured into it.
Anyway, install base, while highly overrated, is not irrelevant. Few games on a dominant console EVER reach 1% sell through, so I think my shot-in-the dark of 0.05% (literally less than one-tenth of one percent) is a pretty arbitrary addition, as is my entire post.
I would like to see how far off from reality it would be by potentially using other games with sequels from one console to the next.
Nice detective work Kurosaki!
I knew the boxarts were the same between MHP Best Price and the reprint, but I wasn't sure if there might be some difference in small print, or on the back of the case or something. But from your searching, it looks like the reprint has a different UPC code from the Best Price version, so in that case, it was probably tracked separately.
I knew the boxarts were the same between MHP Best Price and the reprint, but I wasn't sure if there might be some difference in small print, or on the back of the case or something. But from your searching, it looks like the reprint has a different UPC code from the Best Price version, so in that case, it was probably tracked separately.
yankeeforever2
Member
I refuse to buy a Square Enix game until they do something with this license.......they only Square Enix game I have ever bought was FFT.Dascu said:
PantherLotus
Professional Schmuck
PantherLotus said:
donny2112 said:
I must've missed this. Thanks donny.
With my ridiculous equation:
69k*.8 = 55200
+ 5,600,000*.005= 28000
===========
83000
Yeah that's a bit high. I would change the .005 and vary it between .001 and .005 to get the proper range of expected results. I think the person that mentioned install base for the previous console being important has a valid point now. We'd need to know what the install base at the time of release would be to really test this.
Let's test out my Sequel Estimator on various other games. This could be fun!
A = Previous Game's LTD
B = Previous Game's Console Install base at time of release
C= Sequel
D= Sequel's Console Install bast at time of release
x= variable based on the idea that sequels garner less sales (.70-.90?)
y= variable based on the idea that console install base matters (.001-.005?)
Proposed equation:
(Ax)-(A/B)+(Dy)=C
PepsimanVsJoe
Member
I think with a half-decent advertising campaign Fatal Frame 4 could pull in about 100k (LTD). Not much more than that I'm afraid.
That reminds me though, I really should get back to playing FF2 sometime(really dig the combat, very deep stuff).
That reminds me though, I really should get back to playing FF2 sometime(really dig the combat, very deep stuff).
Pureauthor
Member
Y2Kev said:
They'll want it to act as a bolster for the faltering PS3 sales, so the PSP should be up there for a while yet.
Starchasing
Member
Neomoto said:
Nintendo are just making friends amongst 3rd parties
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Well, that's about wraps it up, there must a be a new SKU for MHP The Best lower priced edition.donny2112 said:
Quickly had a look at sinobi to find some info from upcoming releases next week.
About Pro Yakyuu Spirits 5, last year (4) it did 180k on PS2 and 50k on PS3. So 74%:26%. PS2 release did really good (best selling entry ever) mostly thanks to continued sales after first week, see below for weekly sales...and total for the 3 weeks:
PS2: 39k → 48k → 24k: 111k
PS3: 18k → 15k → 6k: 39k
sinobi compares it with Winning Post to say PS3 is expected to gain some ground.
「2007」PS2：PS3＝62%：38%
「2008」PS2：PS3＝51%：49%
Musou Orochi sequel is also released next week, the original did pretty well with a 380k opening and reaching half a million (650k LTD actually).
Interestingly enough, sinobi also cites 100k as Enix expectations for Star Ocean Second Evolution. He also mentions that because of price collapse of the previous title, the new one is short of stock.
Also, this...
Perhaps it's also because it's cheaper to moneyhat.Neomoto said:
So rather than trying to get the main giant franchises like Resident Evil or Silent Hill, they decided that the smaller franchises like Fatal Frame and Monster Hunter (console version, not portable) will be more profitable.
I guess they're also betting on the Wii owners thirst for hardcore games such as these - it seems to have worked for Grasshopper's NMH.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
So thinking again of how many million sellers remain in the Famitsu Top 30 these days, I was wondering what the record is. Or for that matter, what's the record for, say, number of 3-million sellers in the Top 30. So I made some SQL queries to find the tops; at least from PS2 and on.
1+ million sellers (Current record: 13 on 2008-01-07)
2+ million sellers (Current record: 7 on 2008-01-07)
3+ million sellers (Current record: 5 on many occasions; mostly first half 2007)
4+ million sellers (Current record: 4 on many occasions; mostly mid-2007)
5+ million sellers (Current record: 2 on 2008-01-07; NSMB and Diamond/Pearl)
1+ million sellers (Current record: 13 on 2008-01-07)
2+ million sellers (Current record: 7 on 2008-01-07)
3+ million sellers (Current record: 5 on many occasions; mostly first half 2007)
4+ million sellers (Current record: 4 on many occasions; mostly mid-2007)
5+ million sellers (Current record: 2 on 2008-01-07; NSMB and Diamond/Pearl)
You can use 'between ... and' instead of two separate statements to do a range including the endpoints.
Also, the most 1+million sellers before the PS2 in a single Famitsu Top 30 (post-1996) was six.
Edit:
Also, the closest to two 5+ million sellers before the DS was the week of Jan 3-9, 2000 when Pokemon Red/Green/Blue (5.6 million) and Pokemon Gold/Silver (4.4 million) were both in the Top 30.
Also, the most 1+million sellers before the PS2 in a single Famitsu Top 30 (post-1996) was six.
Edit:
Also, the closest to two 5+ million sellers before the DS was the week of Jan 3-9, 2000 when Pokemon Red/Green/Blue (5.6 million) and Pokemon Gold/Silver (4.4 million) were both in the Top 30.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
http://ir.capcom.co.jp/english/news/html/e080401.html
Looks like they got a second shipment quite soon.
MisterHero
Super Member
Metroid Prime 3 is still hanging on! Wow!