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PoliGAF 2012 |OT4|: Your job is not to worry about 47% of these posts.

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P

pigeon

Banned
I can't believe I missed jamessinclair trolling us about California. Stupid real life!

Nate finally posted his article, in which he says that Romney's chances this moment are probably better than 15%. I'm not convinced -- he's been arguing for the horse race all year. We shall see!
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
HylianTom said:
I can agree with that. I'd never claim that Obama won. But Romney "won" mainly by virtue of being a dishonest ass.

Apparently Obama's initial reaction to the debate wasn't very nice either..
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82091.html

How Obama reset his campaign
Click to expand...

That's the type of piece a campaign basically helps a site right, so I'm not going to put much weight into it; still, it's at least good Obama realizes he got his ass kicked. I don't see him becoming a great debater next time, but at least he'll show up and be aggressive. Plus he'll have some new economic data to play with, and a few zingers of his own.

Plus I'd imagine social issues will come up during the town hall, and it's hard to see Romney moving to the center on any of those. Still you gotta admit: it would be hilarious if Romney suddenly came out for civil unions at the town hall debate
 
P

Puddles

Banned
RIP Manos and Kosma.

Good title. I'm surprised I didn't even make the top 20 in OT3, but then I remembered that I barely posted at all last month.

Great job by jamessinclair adopting the PD/Oblivion shtick. All three of these guys have been performing brilliantly, but I have to applaud Oblivion in particular for such a sustained, diverse run. He manages to get an anti-Obama comment into just about every thread he posts in these days, which is amazing.
 
D

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
PhoenixDark said:
That's the type of piece a campaign basically helps a site right, so I'm not going to put much weight into it; still, it's at least good Obama realizes he got his ass kicked. I don't see him becoming a great debater next time, but at least he'll show up and be aggressive. Plus he'll have some new economic data to play with, and a few zingers of his own.

Plus I'd imagine social issues will come up during the town hall, and it's hard to see Romney moving to the center on any of those. Still you gotta admit: it would be hilarious if Romney suddenly came out for civil unions at the town hall debate
Click to expand...

Do not read the comments on that article, jesus christ :0
 
K

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
Doc Holliday said:
Do not read the comments on that article, jesus christ :0
Click to expand...

At this point, given how much rabid Tea Party Overdrive comments stuff the channels at every internet news, and political, site, it is becoming hard for me to not think there's paid astroturfing going on.
 
M

markatisu

Member
Yeah new topic, but lord I have as many posts as Diablos. Must be my semi daily "where is diablos and cartoon soldier" posts lol
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
Kaijima said:
At this point, given how much rabid Tea Party Overdrive comments stuff the channels at every internet news, and political, site, it is becoming hard for me to not think there's paid astroturfing going on.
Click to expand...

YouTube shows us that there is an abundant supply of stupid racist pieces of shit who will perform this work gratis.
 
C

Concept17

Member
Found this on my car tonight.

ck7wZ


Not surprising given that I live in Montana and work at the busiest restaurant in the state. Have A LOT of super conservatives here, and I have personally known quite a few racist people as well.

Its just sad to see someone so bitter and evidently so emotionally childish to go through the work of typing this up (with surprisingly good grammar) and actually placing it on people's cars and calling them idiots.
 
I

ISOM

Member
PhoenixDark said:
That's the type of piece a campaign basically helps a site right, so I'm not going to put much weight into it; still, it's at least good Obama realizes he got his ass kicked. I don't see him becoming a great debater next time, but at least he'll show up and be aggressive. Plus he'll have some new economic data to play with, and a few zingers of his own.

Plus I'd imagine social issues will come up during the town hall, and it's hard to see Romney moving to the center on any of those. Still you gotta admit: it would be hilarious if Romney suddenly came out for civil unions at the town hall debate
Click to expand...

I wonder if I can ask since you have the most post in this topic who do you think is going to win the election?
 
P

Puddles

Banned
Kaijima said:
At this point, given how much rabid Tea Party Overdrive comments stuff the channels at every internet news, and political, site, it is becoming hard for me to not think there's paid astroturfing going on.
Click to expand...

Oblivion should see if he can make a few bucks with one of those jobs.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Amir0x said:
It is, but those are the stakes in an election like this. He cannot afford to be knocked over time and time again due to a perpetual defensive strategy. Obama needs to be proud of his accomplishments and equally familiar with his opponents near endless tap dancing to try to appeal to every demographics while promising everything to no one and nothing to everyone.

If in the end Obama doesn't hit him hard, the election is going to be much closer than it has to be.
Click to expand...

I think Obama is royally pissed now. I'm more optimistic about the second debate.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
Concept17 said:
Found this on my car tonight.

ck7wZ


Not surprising given that I live in Montana and work at the busiest restaurant in the state. Have A LOT of super conservatives here, and I have personally known quite a few racist people as well.

Its just sad to see someone so bitter and evidently so emotionally childish to go through the work of typing this up (with surprisingly good grammar) and actually placing it on people's cars and calling them idiots.
Click to expand...
ck7wZ.jpg

-------------------------------------------
Fixed.
 
S

StopMakingSense

Member
Concept17 said:
Found this on my car tonight.

ck7wZ


Not surprising given that I live in Montana and work at the busiest restaurant in the state. Have A LOT of super conservatives here, and I have personally known quite a few racist people as well.

Its just sad to see someone so bitter and evidently so emotionally childish to go through the work of typing this up (with surprisingly good grammar) and actually placing it on people's cars and calling them idiots.
Click to expand...

Oh man I can imagine the passive aggressive hard-on he must have been sporting when he left that,
 
A

adamsappel

Member
StopMakingSense said:
Oh man I can imagine the passive aggressive hard-on he must have been sporting when he left that,
Click to expand...

I don't put political bumper stickers or magnets on my car. I figure a magnet will get taken off and tossed and a sticker might get my car keyed. I wish I could trust my fellow citizens to not cross that line, but the unwarranted vitriol directed at Obama makes me wary.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
IGSaint said:
I wonder if I can ask since you have the most post in this topic who do you think is going to win the election?
Click to expand...

I've been consistent:

-I believe Romney will win

-I believe Scott Brown will defeat Elizabeth Warren

- I believe Todd Akin will defeat Claire McCaskil

The only one I'm not confident (at all) with is the Brown one. Warren has come back pretty big, and this racist Native American shit isn't doing Brown any favors
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I've been consistent:

-I believe Romney will win

-I believe Scott Brown will defeat Elizabeth Warren

- I believe Todd Akin will defeat Claire McCaskil

The only one I'm not confident (at all) with is the Brown one. Warren has come back pretty big, and this racist Native American shit isn't doing Brown any favors
Click to expand...
Still high on Tommy Thompson or has that one fallen off the list?

I seem to remember taking my fair share of ribbing for suggesting it was winnable by Baldwin and she's now up by 10 points.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I've been consistent:

-I believe Romney will win

-I believe Scott Brown will defeat Elizabeth Warren

- I believe Todd Akin will defeat Claire McCaskil

The only one I'm not confident (at all) with is the Brown one. Warren has come back pretty big, and this racist Native American shit isn't doing Brown any favors
Click to expand...

Can you show us your predicted electoral map? I'm curious.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Still high on Tommy Thompson or has that one fallen off the list?

I seem to remember taking my fair share of ribbing for suggesting it was winnable by Baldwin and she's now up by 10 points.
Click to expand...

I just assumed Tommy had that in the bag...dunno what the hell happened. I read he didn't have any money after the primary but that still doesn't explain how a liberal lesbian is beating someone as popular as Tommy Thompson in a state that is getting redder. No disrespect to liberal lesbians, obviously but I didn't expect Wisconsin to give her the chance she deserves
 
I

ISOM

Member
PhoenixDark said:
I've been consistent:

-I believe Romney will win

-I believe Scott Brown will defeat Elizabeth Warren

- I believe Todd Akin will defeat Claire McCaskil

The only one I'm not confident (at all) with is the Brown one. Warren has come back pretty big, and this racist Native American shit isn't doing Brown any favors
Click to expand...

I see, well here's mine I believe obama will win and by a larger margin than most people are assuming.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
PhoenixDark said:
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=EJR

Obama is clearly ahead in Ohio but I don't believe the race is over there. All Romney needs is a hail mary there, and voter suppression/GOP sec of state can do the rest.

Colorado seemed to be heading to Obama but has tightened recently, and I think Virginia will be razor thin
Click to expand...

Yeah, because that news coming out of Ohio today (in regards to voter suppression) is conveniently being ignored by you.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
I just assumed Tommy had that in the bag...dunno what the hell happened. I read he didn't have any money after the primary but that still doesn't explain how a liberal lesbian is beating someone as popular as Tommy Thompson in a state that is getting redder. No disrespect to liberal lesbians, obviously but I didn't expect Wisconsin to give her the chance she deserves
Click to expand...
I freely admit that it sounded like damage control at the time and it kind of was, but Thompson's flaws as a candidate have become pretty clear since winning the primary. One, he's a terrible fundraiser (running in a contested primary against a self-funder didn't do him any favors), two, his laughable run for presidency and the weirdness that came from it is manifesting itself in the Senate race (attacking Baldwin for being a lesbian, "No one better than me to get rid of Medicare!"), and three, his governorship was so long ago that any goodwill he had has fizzled out since then.

It's kind of funny that he passed on running against Feingold in 2010 when everyone was clamoring against him and assuming Russ was safe otherwise, then he lost to a rich nobody. Now he's running against a Madison liberal, lesbian, rah rah rah and getting his butt kicked.

Obama is clearly ahead in Ohio but I don't believe the race is over there. All Romney needs is a hail mary there, and voter suppression/GOP sec of state can do the rest.

Colorado seemed to be heading to Obama but has tightened recently, and I think Virginia will be razor thin
Click to expand...
You're probably the most optimistic person about Romney's chances and the most even you can produce is a relatively small win for Romney, one that disappears if Ohio, Nevada+Colorado, Florida, or Virginia swing to Obama, and he leads in all of those states (for the record I'm discounting Rasmussen because they are, as has been iterated countless times, fabricated bullshit). Yeah, we can wait and see how the debate impacts the polls, but it's going to take an extremely drastic turnabout for Romney to win it.
 
C

Cloudy

Banned
I went back and looked at the 2008 Town Hall debate. That format is much better for Obama cos he has more time to give thoughtful answers to specific questions. Most liars are quick on their feet and Romney is no exception. Obama is a more deliberate guy and when you add in his reluctance to attack Romney, it didn't look good stylistically.
 
R

ryutaro's mama

Member
PhoenixDark said:
That's not the only from of voter suppression, obviously.

And no, Romney has no chance in California; I was joking
Click to expand...

Dude, Obama has been living in Ohio and Florida and his ground game there is pretty good.

I don't think the Obama campaign is gonna let people think they can't vote when they actually can, i.e. that shit going on with Vote PA in Pennsylvania.

And that bullshit of trying to destroy 'Souls to the Polls' on that Sunday before Election Day failed too.

But again, you have this belief that Romney's goons are going to be everywhere doing everything.

Shit, why even bother trying to suppress the vote? Just have the GOP Secretary of State throw out all the Obama votes.

You have to create a scenario where the combination of the GOP thugs and retroactive Bradley Effect happens for your dream of a Romney Presidency happens.

I bet part of you secretly wants Romney to win (against your own wishes) just to be right.
 
S

Stinkles

Clothed, sober, cooperative
ryutaro's mama said:
Dude, Obama has been living in Ohio and Florida and his ground game there is pretty good.

I don't think the Obama campaign is gonna let people think they can't vote when they actually can, i.e. that shit going on with Vote PA in Pennsylvania.

And that bullshit of trying to destroy 'Souls to the Polls' on that Sunday before Election Day failed too.

But again, you have this belief that Romney's goons are going to be everywhere doing everything.

Shit, why even bother trying to suppress the vote? Just have the GOP Secretary of State throw out all the Obama votes.

You have to create a scenario where the combination of the GOP thugs and retroactive Bradley Effect happens for your dream of a Romney Presidency happens.

I bet part of you secretly wants Romney to win (against your own wishes) just to be right.
Click to expand...

I literally laughed.
 
P

Particle Physicist

between a quark and a baryon
Jackson50 said:
I intended to post these earlier, but I had to leave abruptly. And when I returned a new thread had been created. So I'm posting here.Not all online polls warrant disregard. YouGov (Polimetrix) has developed an algorithm that enables them to conduct scientific online polls. Their performance is comparable to traditional pollsters.
Click to expand...

I will have to look at their methodology and track record, but I have serious issues with how online polls are conducted in general, and I am not sure how reliable the information they gather is.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
Jackson50 said:
Indeed. If you're reasonable and cordial, you'll distinguish yourself. If you have insight on a particular topic as a few do, then indulge it. But don't force it.

No. You're a quality poster, though. Some shticks heavily detract from the thread; e.g., Kosmo, PhoenixDark, and GhaleonEB.
Click to expand...
So I gotta know what I did to get lumped in with Kosmo and PhoenixDark. I am self aware enough to know that I have not been able to contribute to the threads as substantially as I would prefer - my work schedule has been bananas - but I gotta say, that stings. If I'm really that bad, I'll be happy to bow out.
 
P

PhoenixDark

Banned
ryutaro's mama said:
Dude, Obama has been living in Ohio and Florida and his ground game there is pretty good.

I don't think the Obama campaign is gonna let people think they can't vote when they actually can, i.e. that shit going on with Vote PA in Pennsylvania.

And that bullshit of trying to destroy 'Souls to the Polls' on that Sunday before Election Day failed too.

But again, you have this belief that Romney's goons are going to be everywhere doing everything.

Shit, why even bother trying to suppress the vote? Just have the GOP Secretary of State throw out all the Obama votes.

You have to create a scenario where the combination of the GOP thugs and retroactive Bradley Effect happens for your dream of a Romney Presidency happens.

I bet part of you secretly wants Romney to win (against your own wishes) just to be right.
Click to expand...

Romney and Obama are in a dead heat in TPM's Florida tracker. He's up 4 points in Ohio on average but I don't believe that can't be overcome, especially after that debate. Again, I'm sure we'll see some new OH polls next week to see whether that's a realistic assumption or not.

I don't want Romney to win, but I wouldn't be devastated if he did. In fact I think we'd be more likely to get some decent stimulus passed with him in office as opposed to Obama, who is unwilling or unable to work with either side (Bob Woodward's book paints quite an ugly picture); I'm not dismissing the GOP's effort to block most of his moves, but ultimately Obama has not handled negotiation or compromise well; he's not a leader, and his style seems best suited in a world that includes sane people on both sides (like, president of a university). Will Romney govern as a right wing ideologue? If given the chance, yes to a degree. But more likely he'll have to deal with a democrat senate, which means he'll also have to deal with tea party absolutists in the house.

Regardless, I am most invested in seeing Hillary Clinton run and win in 2016
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
PhoenixDark said:
Romney and Obama are in a dead heat in TPM's Florida tracker. He's up 4 points in Ohio on average but I don't believe that can't be overcome, especially after that debate. Again, I'm sure we'll see some new OH polls next week to see whether that's a realistic assumption or not.

I don't want Romney to win, but I wouldn't be devastated if he did. In fact I think we'd be more likely to get some decent stimulus passed with him in office as opposed to Obama, who is unwilling or unable to work with either side (Bob Woodward's book paints quite an ugly picture); I'm not dismissing the GOP's effort to block most of his moves, but ultimately Obama has not handled negotiation or compromise well; he's not a leader, and his style seems best suited in a world that includes sane people on both sides (like, president of a university). Will Romney govern as a right wing ideologue? If given the chance, yes to a degree. But more likely he'll have to deal with a democrat senate, which means he'll also have to deal with tea party absolutists in the house.

Regardless, I am most invested in seeing Hillary Clinton run and win in 2016
Click to expand...
If Romney wins there WILL be a Republican Senate.

No way there isn't. And the first thing McConnell will do is nix the filibuster.
 
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