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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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Yoda

Member
Lost most of my gains on PredictIt tonight! That annoys me less than Bernie teaching his disciples bad math.



Most people moved by Bernie alone won't even start voting in midterms. They are worthless.

Patronizing new voters to your party sounds like a sure-fire way to increase turnout in midterms!
 

Grief.exe

Member
If Hillary can get ~10-12% of registered Republicans and only lose ~5-6% of registered Dems, that would be an amazing coup.

But that still means that 88-90% of Republicans will fall in line.

Don't forget the amount of Republicans that just aren't going to vote at all or vote third party, I'm sure it will be a significant amount.
 
Trump to the GOP...

WzKQNoi.gif

GOP to Trump

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I can't wait for months of substance free "Trump can win this" articles from Politico.

Make white women hate you (35% of voters)
Make non-white men hate you (15% of voters)
Make non-white women think you are actually Hitler (15% of voters)
Oh, and Jews and Mormons and church-going evangelicals hate you too (>5% of voters)

<30% of voters can stand Trump!
 
Make white women hate you (35% of voters)
Make non-white men hate you (15% of voters)
Make non-white women think you are actually Hitler (15% of voters)
Oh, and Jews and Mormons and church-going evangelicals hate you too (>5% of voters)

<30% of voters can stand Trump!

Yeah, but they'll have articles! With quotes! From both Democratic and Republican sources! Making vague statements!

How can you argue with that?
 
I know I was defending voting for Trump yesterday because I believe you can support him without being racist but Ann Coulter is like the biggest and longest outed racist in American politics.

smdh
 

pigeon

Banned
Holy shit people, it does not matter that Bernie hasn't dropped.

He can't win. The mainstream media is over him. Hillary didn't spend a dime in Indiana and she's pivoted to the general like two weeks ago.

Everything is okay. It's okay to be nervous a little bit about the <1% chance that Trump wins but don't sublimate that anxiety into anger at Bernie because nothing he can do will change that.
 

pigeon

Banned
I'm on my phone rIght now but I would otherwise link back to the Democracy Corps dive into the GOP electorate and specifically that 20% or so of the GOP base that is actually moderate and marginalized by the party.

One of their observations was that Hillary actually went almost 50/50 among moderate Republican women against generic R.

Donald Trump is a lot of things, but he's no generic R.

I think people need to recognize that this is the end of the current GOP.

It's much more likely that the GOP gets less than 100 electoral votes than it is that they get 270.
 

Ecotic

Member
Nor should she. I've been saying it for a while, but I think that anyone saying Bernie or Bust is in one of two camps. Either they're a voter who would vote Democrat, but wants the most liberal option, in which case, they'll have like 5 months to come to their senses in the general as they usually do, or they're a voter who has never been particularly involved in politics, but is now psyched because of the anti-establishment "revolution" candidate is revving them up, in which case they're votes have never been necessary for Democrats to win in the past, so I'm not worried about them now.

I mean, I'm basing this on a lot of anecdotes, but this is all I've ever seen of the Bernie or Bust movement. Angry people that will eventually get over it, and people who weren't going to vote anyway. Either way, it's not people worth stressing out about.

I think there's a third group, which is 19-22 year olds who have time on their side and feel they don't have to settle. They're the political equivalent of people with 'standards' who won't marry until they meet Mr. Right. They're committed, but they derive no utility from a bad relationship.
 
Honestly, I don't think the media will be able to pretend that Trump is a normal candidate instead of a David Duke like person and here's why:

-Hillary is a woman and Trump hates women so Trump will say something sexist.
-The media will have female writers do the "Trump calls Hillary a hag" article and the female writers will likely say some negative things about Trump just because that's how articles go.
-The Alt-Right will immediately flood the inboxes of these female writers with child porn and death threats for days on end.

Basically every female reporter and journalist is going to face such an impossible level of abuse this general election that all media outlets will have to face employee revolts to cover Trump "neutrally."
 

Cipherr

Member
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-05-04/gop-establishment-nightmare-ted-cruz-2020.

Cruz argued that his nomination in 2016 would have spurred a conservative turnout that would win the party the presidency. Walsh disputed that, saying conservatives turned out in 2008 and 2012.

"The problem is we lost with young voters, we lost with women, we lost with minorities," he said.

After the 2012 election, the GOP establishment formally concluded that the party must modernize and expand its appeal with Hispanics and unmarried women.

Conservative activists disagree, saying a victory requires nominating an ideological purist who will excite the base and supercharge conservative voter turnout.


The bolded and highlighted is fascinating to me. I thought that after 2012 EVERYONE on the Conservative side finally admitted that they had issues with young voters, women and minorities. But apparently there was resistance to that even STILL after that ass whipping in 2012.

To be so steadfast in the wake of that landslide is a little .... curious. I don't really even know what to expect from them after this year.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I'm on my phone rIght now but I would otherwise link back to the Democracy Corps dive into the GOP electorate and specifically that 20% or so of the GOP base that is actually moderate and marginalized by the party.

One of their observations was that Hillary actually went almost 50/50 among moderate Republican women against generic R.

Donald Trump is a lot of things, but he's no generic R.

I think people need to recognize that this is the end of the current GOP.

It's much more likely that the GOP gets less than 100 electoral votes than it is that they get 270.

I've said that a few times. Hillary Clinton, the politician with presidential aspirations, has always represented the end of the GOP. It's why they've gone after her as hard as they have for the last 25 years. If America is at the point where we can elect a woman to the presidency it means that it's the end of the coalition they've used nationally for the last 50 years or so.
 
Ben Sasse is the only actual #NeverTrump politician who will run in 2020. This is his only defining characteristic other than wanting to privatize Social Security. With those two traits, along with being young and being able to talk, he's basically a media dreamboat.

Sasse is going to get so much hype for the next four years and he's going to get crushed so badly.
 

pigeon

Banned
Clinton has the women, latino, and black vote. Those are three key demos for the democrats. I just don't know if the lack of the young vote is yet to be a concern.

Remember that the Obama coalition wasn't young people, it was millennials.

I think Hillary will do fine with them in November. The youth that won't vote for her probably wouldn't have voted much in any case.
 
Clinton has the women, latino, and black vote. Those are three key demos for the democrats. I just don't know if the lack of the young vote is yet to be a concern.

Basically the issue for Trump is that you can't win an election with just white men any more, and he has very little appeal outside those groups. There's a reason George W. Bush and his team put so much effort into getting the Hispanic vote.
 
My dad said he's gonna have to vote hillary now because 'trump is the worst'. He voted republican every time this century. Although I'm worried he will change his mind in the next 7 months. Hopefully there's more conservatives that do the same.
 

Teggy

Member
Honestly, I don't think the media will be able to pretend that Trump is a normal candidate instead of a David Duke like person and here's why:

-Hillary is a woman and Trump hates women so Trump will say something sexist.
-The media will have female writers do the "Trump calls Hillary a hag" article and the female writers will likely say some negative things about Trump just because that's how articles go.
-The Alt-Right will immediately flood the inboxes of these female writers with child porn and death threats for days on end.

Basically every female reporter and journalist is going to face such an impossible level of abuse this general election that all media outlets will have to face employee revolts to cover Trump "neutrally."

The response to the woman who wrote the Melania story in GQ was certainly a sign of things to come.
 

studyguy

Member
Not worried about Sanders campaign, it's just a fly buzzing about her head at this point.

Had no idea they agreed to a debate before cali though. Literally no reason to bother any longer with the zombie campaign.
 

Drakeon

Member
Clinton has the women, latino, and black vote. Those are three key demos for the democrats. I just don't know if the lack of the young vote is yet to be a concern.

Young people don't vote in very large numbers, so it's not a huge concern. It'd be nice if they came back around, but they have never been very active voters.
 

Bowdz

Member
I really think the difference will be how much popular institutional support Clinton gets compared to the adversion to Trump from Senators and Representatives. McCain simply is not going to campaign with Trump because he is toxic to his reelection. Likewise with Ayotte and Jonson, and Grassely and Toomey.

Good luck taking PA from the Dems when we've got Biden, Perez, Warren, and hopefully Sanders barnstorming the state.
 
The response to the woman who wrote the Melania story in GQ was certainly a sign of things to come.

I mean, #GamerGate was roughly 1000 losers and there aren't many female journalists in the gaming industry and #GamerGate wasn't affiliated with the biggest story in gaming day after day so the gaming industry could plug their ears and pretend nothing was happened, but fuck, they just abused women that spoke against them.

Trump has probably 100k online loser warriors, there are tons of female writers in political journalism, and Trump's losers are connected to Trump who is the most important story in politics. This will be impossible to ignore for media outlets and women will get far more abuse than even the women attacked by #GamerGate got. Some female, Jewish writer will probably get SWATted by the middle of September, people might die.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
My dad said he's gonna have to vote hillary now because 'trump is the worst'. He voted republican every time this century. Although I'm worried he will change his mind in the next 7 months. Hopefully there's more conservatives that do the same.

Expect this to happen with the more economic and business focused Republicans. Some will just rationalize, but those who really know what's up will jump the fence.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
TONIGHT IS THE BEST NIGHT OF THE YEAR

@DKElections
Daily Kos Elections Retweeted Igor Bobic
GOP operative signs in to Twitter for 1st time in 2 years to tell other GOP operative he worked for a pedophile

ChlOMTZUYAAPljg.jpg
 

Holmes

Member
Well, sucks for tonight. Even so, Clinton has won a vast majority of counties bordering Kentucky, so that should bode well for her there. West Virginia is gone, though.

She should win South Carolina - I mean Guam on Saturday.
 

Chichikov

Member
Holy shit people, it does not matter that Bernie hasn't dropped.

He can't win. The mainstream media is over him. Hillary didn't spend a dime in Indiana and she's pivoted to the general like two weeks ago.

Everything is okay. It's okay to be nervous a little bit about the <1% chance that Trump wins but don't sublimate that anxiety into anger at Bernie because nothing he can do will change that.
I generally agree (assuming he doesn't do something stupid and concede at the end).
Though I still think if you care about the policies that he pushes (like I do) the best move here is to drop out of the race and endorse and campaign for Hillary in the general.
It will create some good will toward him and the progressive wing of the party which will help getting shit done. Not to mention that the money he has on hand could be much better use post the election trying to push policies.

On the flipside, if Hillary somehow lose (and I don't think it particularly likely) and he played it hardball people will probably pin the loss on him, right or wrong (and I think it almost certainly be wrong) and that can set progressive causes back in this country. Just like Nader in 2000.
 

User1608

Banned
My dad said he's gonna have to vote hillary now because 'trump is the worst'. He voted republican every time this century. Although I'm worried he will change his mind in the next 7 months. Hopefully there's more conservatives that do the same.
I said this in another thread but anyway, my boss has indicated as such too. He's conservative but he's incredibly friendly and I consider him a good friend (he knows I'm trans, etc) so I do have a feeling, and will also make the prediction some will not have the heart to vote for someone as blatantly racist as Trump, stay home or they may even cross over to the other side for this election. Maybe just enough to make a small but crucial difference.
 

Kangi

Member
Well, sucks for tonight. Even so, Clinton has won a vast majority of counties bordering Kentucky, so that should bode well for her there. West Virginia is gone, though.

She should win South Carolina - I mean Guam on Saturday.

I can say as a resident of "Guam Carolina" that those in Guam proper should definitely turn out for Clinton.

Thanks Tim Robbins for connecting me to my heritage.
 

benjipwns

Banned
http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/434906/pre-planning-my-i-told-you-so
Remember, You Asked for This
by KEVIN D. WILLIAMSON May 3, 2016 10:20 PM @KEVINNR
I want to leave a note here, because I expect to have many occasions to link back to it in the next several months.

Americans and Republicans, remember: You asked for this. Given the choice between a dozen solid conservatives and one Clinton-supporting con artist and game-show host, you chose the con artist. You chose him freely. Nobody made you do it.

I will be reminding you all of that, from time to time.

NRO's twitter feed:
https://twitter.com/NRO/lists/nr-primary-tweets
Byron Tau &#8207;@ByronTau 4h4 hours ago
Cruz volunteer just told me "We just lost the constitution because of the media — because people like you."
 
Holy shit people, it does not matter that Bernie hasn't dropped.

He can't win. The mainstream media is over him. Hillary didn't spend a dime in Indiana and she's pivoted to the general like two weeks ago.

Everything is okay. It's okay to be nervous a little bit about the <1% chance that Trump wins but don't sublimate that anxiety into anger at Bernie because nothing he can do will change that.

I don't think he's going to win or hurt hillary in any real way but I worry about how he's making people feel about politics

Quote from a few days ago.
I still believe that this fear of the "Bernie or Bust" Democratic tea-party movement is completely overblown and driven mostly by media speculation and the nature of social media that skews our ability to tell truth from reality. The small percentage of Bernie's voters that actually subscribe to that idea are overly active on the Internet, and the nature of Twitter, Facebook, GAF etc. makes it easy to think that the whole world (or in this case group) thinks one way because of the behavior of what is probably no more than a couple hundred people.

This is the first election where social media is really a thing, it's incredibly important to keep perspective.

Twitter and facebook were a huge thing back in 2012 and 2014.

It might be overblown but I have real fear, especially with young people all he's contributing is building distrust when young people are forming their political ideologies. Obama built it on trust and the idea we can do better, bernie is reinforcing the idea that you don't matter when you lose. That's dangerous for democracy and democrats. DIsillusionment is how we went from LBJ to all those republican presidents after watergate. I don't want that repeated and that's my issue with bernie. He can't take a lose well and he's telling his supporters you didn't lose, you were stolen from.

That's not a way to build a progressive legacy, its building a apathetic generation which just bitches and moans when things don't go their ways, which is inevitable in a democracy. Look at clinton's glass ceiling speech when she conceded in 08. She didn't complain that the system was rigged, she said we lost now but we'll fight harder next time. And she took to task those that weren't going to follow her in supporting Obama

I think this comes from his fundamental want of revolution. He didn't choose those words haphazardly. I'm not saying he's a jacobin but I do think he has fundamental disagreements about how the US government works. I get the feeling he doesn't respect many aspects of the consitution when they can't be used for his own desired goals (his comments about the Supreme Court and Citizens show that IMO). He's not a warren who wants change but understands how government works in America. He's toned himself down from his days in berlington but I think a lot of this stubborness comes from a general disgust and moral certitude which is poisonous in a two party system of periodic elections, federalism, checks and balances, etc.
 

pigeon

Banned
Yay, benji's back!


Unclear whether he means because OF people like you or because people don't hate the media enough.

Either way.

Also consistently astonishing to me that as the conventional media becomes steadily less relevant they also get steadily blamed more for the stuff that happens. Why aren't people firebombing Twitter headquarters?*


* I do not advocate this. It would be super hard to take credit for the bombing and list your demands in only 140 characters.
 

User1608

Banned
Bernie certainly isn't the most politically savvy person. Seems to be kind of short-sighted to be honest. Pretty shocking considering how long he's been in the game.
 
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