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Rakuten analyst ups his prediction, "PS5 will sell 200M-300M units in 5-6 years, data suggests 700M units long term is possible"

Kadve

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Even the ps2 ended up at ~160 million, consoles haven't changed much in terms of culture since then....
 

UnNamed

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300 million consoles per gen is the entire videogame market.
PS3 (85)+360 (82)+Wii (101) sold 270million consoles.
Ps4 (112)+XBO (40?) +WiiU (13)+Switch (61) sold (approximately) between 186 and 230 million consoles.
350millions is probably the top level of saturation of the videogame market.
 
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yurinka

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someone tell this creackhead that even PS2 didn't do 200mil and probably nothing will beat ps2 numbers
Launch aligned, PS4 is outselling PS2 since the first year. It still has room for big price counts, on its 7th year continued breaking different historical records, has big games coming, this generation is way easier/cheaper to make crossgen games and it has ongoing revenue generations that don't require new games (PS Plus, PS Now, Netflix, etc). Sony said they will support it for years, and they support their home consoles for at least 10 years.

It's pretty likely that PS4 may end outselling total PS2 numbers, and that at least on its first year PS5 will outsell PS4 aligning launches, and the console market has been growing every year since forever so it will continue growing. But I highly doubt PS5 may pass the 200M mark.

 
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yurinka

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300 million consoles per gen is the entire videogame market.
PS3 (85)+360 (82)+Wii (101) sold 270million consoles.
Ps4 (112)+XBO (40?) +WiiU (13)+Switch (61) sold (approximately) between 186 and 230 million consoles.
350millions is probably the top level of saturation of the videogame market.
I'd bet XBO should be closer to 55-60M as of now. Fixed the numbers with wikipedia numbers and added previous gens to see better the evolution:

NES (61.91) + MS (13) = 74.91M
SNES (49.10) + MD (30.75) + PCE (5.8) = 85.65M
PS1 (102.49) + N64 (32.93) + Saturn (9.25) + others (~2M) = 146.67M
PS2 (155) + XB (24) + GC (21.75) + DC (9.13) = 209.88M
PS3 (87.2) + 360 (84) + Wii (101.63) = 272.83M
PS4 (112.3) + XBO (~55-60) + WiiU (13.56) + Switch (61.44) = ~245M until now and counting, Switch and PS4 still have almost half of its lifetime to sell many more units.
 
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Codename: Classified

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May 8, 2020
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All predictions predict one thing: Sony stomping Microsoft Xbox Series X/S (even in the U.S) and to an extent eating into the casuals Nintendo is milking right now. That's how you get the now "conservative" 150 million.
 
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EverydayBeast

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It'll continue PS4's success, as of now the consoles aren't available and people will travel to where they are in a hurry, I think the games will separate PS5 from the pack.
 

martino

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Launch aligned, PS4 is outselling PS2 since the first year. It still has room for big price counts, on its 7th year continued breaking different historical records, has big games coming, this generation is way easier/cheaper to make crossgen games and it has ongoing revenue generations that don't require new games (PS Plus, PS Now, Netflix, etc). Sony said they will support it for years, and they support their home consoles for at least 10 years.

It's pretty likely that PS4 may end outselling total PS2 numbers, and that at least on its first year PS5 will outsell PS4 aligning launches, and the console market has been growing every year since forever so it will continue growing. But I highly doubt PS5 may pass the 200M mark.

dunno china is an untapped market with a fast expanding middle class that has potential in 10's of millions
 

Alphagear

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I doubt PS5 will reach 100 million units. This has nothing to do with Sony or how good or bad the PS5 is. Sony's simply going to be facing stiffer competition next gen. This is true in any industry. If a Tesla competitor came out with better specs and comparable price, quality and features, it's a fact that Tesla won't sell as many cars as they did previously.

I said it before and I'll say it again: Every generation that Sony had a 2:1 marketshare, they had some type of advantage. They either launched a year earlier or their competition made huge screw-ups. Sony has never faced competition like this before.


If I was a betting man, I'd look at the 360/PS3 situation to get a better idea how things will go this time around. Yes, Sony screwed up early in the generation but that ended up being a wash with Xbox screwing up at the end of the generation with the Kinect falling off a cliff. Sony was able to catch up and surpass MS with a strong first party lineup. But they still lost 50% marketshare from the previous generation while Microsoft almost tripled theirs. So Microsoft won that generation.

This time Microsoft has the pricing advantage and the games advantage. You can argue how we haven't seen shit from Microsoft first parties yet, but if only half of the 23 studios put out hit games that's a regular cadence of AAA games throughout the year. You can talk as much shit as you want about this, but when the next Elder Scrolls game drops it's going to make an impact and sell consoles. Starfield is going to sell boxes. Sony has never faced competition like this.

I've been gaming long enough to know that kings come and kings go. Thirty years ago I would have laughed in your face if you told me Sega would go out of the hardware business and the Walkman and VCR company would be the market leader one day. I thought the Playstation was the next Philips CDi or Panasonic 3DO. Shit, 3DO even had Naughty Dog making games for them.

Kings come and kings go. Sony won't sell 400 million consoles. They might not even reach 100 million.

Playstation 2 destroyed everything before and after it was released.
 

yurinka

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If the PS5 sold 700 million consoles, it would be terrible for gaming.
No, it would be great. Devs would have more money to make games, so they would make more and better games.

I doubt PS5 will reach 100 million units. This has nothing to do with Sony or how good or bad the PS5 is. Sony's simply going to be facing stiffer competition next gen. This is true in any industry. If a Tesla competitor came out with better specs and comparable price, quality and features, it's a fact that Tesla won't sell as many cars as they did previously.

I said it before and I'll say it again: Every generation that Sony had a 2:1 marketshare, they had some type of advantage. They either launched a year earlier or their competition made huge screw-ups. Sony has never faced competition like this before.

If I was a betting man, I'd look at the 360/PS3 situation to get a better idea how things will go this time around. Yes, Sony screwed up early in the generation but that ended up being a wash with Xbox screwing up at the end of the generation with the Kinect falling off a cliff. Sony was able to catch up and surpass MS with a strong first party lineup. But they still lost 50% marketshare from the previous generation while Microsoft almost tripled theirs. So Microsoft won that generation.

This time Microsoft has the pricing advantage and the games advantage. You can argue how we haven't seen shit from Microsoft first parties yet, but if only half of the 23 studios put out hit games that's a regular cadence of AAA games throughout the year. You can talk as much shit as you want about this, but when the next Elder Scrolls game drops it's going to make an impact and sell consoles. Starfield is going to sell boxes. Sony has never faced competition like this.

I've been gaming long enough to know that kings come and kings go. Thirty years ago I would have laughed in your face if you told me Sega would go out of the hardware business and the Walkman and VCR company would be the market leader one day. I thought the Playstation was the next Philips CDi or Panasonic 3DO. Shit, 3DO even had Naughty Dog making games for them.

Kings come and kings go. Sony won't sell 400 million consoles. They might not even reach 100 million.
For sure they will reach 100 million, it's realistic to expect PS5 to outsell PS4 so probably PS2 too. It makes sense to expect it to end selling between 150 and 200M. First, the console market grows every generation.

Second, this generation Nintendo will be less direct competition with Switch than in the previous ones, as happened with PS4. And Microsoft isn't focused on their consoles but instead of putting their games elsewhere, and players now know before the console release that it won't have 1st party exclusives so some XBO users will move from Xbox to PC, or if already were PC gamers maybe, from Xbox to PS5 if they have a powerful console as second gaming device just for the exclusives.

PS5 BC will make many of their existing and future PS4 fucking huge userbase migrate to PS5 just to keep the games, and will incentivate some people who didn't have a PS4 to buy a PS5 to also can play PS4 games. The XBO userbase is like half of that, and non XBO users will be less interested on jumping to Series X in if they already can play the games elsewhere (PC, mobile, etc).

And third, home PS consoles always dominated all their generations. The only time they didn't do it was their own fault, because released the console like a year later, at launch its online network sucked compared to the competition, some key exclusives like GTA went multi and was super expensive, price cuts took a lot of time and it was alien hardware too difficult to learn to develop for it. They fixed all these mistakes with PS4 and seems they also did it with PS5. Plus they pioneered and are the market leaders (because are the only ones) and built a big catalog and experience in console VR and console game streaming, so also have an advantage in these secondary markets. They will dominate again this generation.
 
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longdi

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Even the ps2 ended up at ~160 million, consoles haven't changed much in terms of culture since then....
people buying tech seems to move faster. ie. the longevity of each gen of tech has been greatly reduced.

Yes this analyst is on crack. Sony will be excite if PS5 sold the same frequency as PS4. 🤷‍♀️
 

Kagey K

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people buying tech seems to move faster. ie. the longevity of each gen of tech has been greatly reduced.

Yes this analyst is on crack. Sony will be excite if PS5 sold the same frequency as PS4. 🤷‍♀️
This gen is going to be more front loaded than ever. Expect gangbusters out the door.

Its going to be interesting to see who has legs once the next gen hype dies and people start buying for actual games.
 

ethomaz

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PS5 is more popular than PSand it will break the past PS4 records.

But to be 2-3 times more popular is really hard to believe.

I won’t even talk about 6-7 times more popular lol

Edit - Fixed.
 
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N1tr0sOx1d3

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If you like to gamble, I tell you I'm your man
You win some, lose some, it's all the same to me.
The pleasure is to play, makes no difference what you say.

Ace of Spades - Rakuten Analyst
 

SegaSnatcher

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Why are so many analysts so out of touch with reality when it comes to video games. They make some of the dumbest predictions.

My prediction is unless Sony does something really stupid the PS5 should be another 100 million selling console for sure. 200 million is just not happening and 300 million is just a lol.
 

fermcr

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No, it would be great. Devs would have more money to make games, so they would make more and better games.
If there isn't competition, gaming won't advance, won't improve, won't change for better. Without competition, a monopoly would be in place and the the consumers and developers would suffer, gaming would stagnate and get much worse. Gaming is like any other product out there... IT NEEDS COMPETITION to evolve.
A person incapable of seeing that is very narrow minded.
 
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Daymos

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If the gaming market expands to 1 billion people or whatever games aren't going to be made for people like us anymore. Hoard your discs and cartridges now!! The future is always bleak when you get old.

If china becomes a big place to sell consoles then we're looking at a flood of titles like Genshin Impact.
 
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Tomeru

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I dont think it will get 200 mil. Maybe above what ps4 sold, but almost 100% more than this gen? Nah. Nah uh. No way.
 

yurinka

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If there isn't competition, gaming won't advance, won't improve, won't change for better. Without competition, a monopoly would be in place and the the consumers and developers would suffer, gaming would stagnate and get much worse. Gaming is like any other product out there... IT NEEDS COMPETITION to evolve.
A person incapable of seeing that is very narrow minded.
There would be competition. PC, mobile and Nintendo will continue there. As you can see in the graph I posted above, launch aligned Switch is performing above PS2 numbers, getting almost PS4 numbers. I expect PS5 to perform a bit better than PS4, but not much more.

I think that during this generation Nintendo with DS will merge their portables and home consoles market and benefit a bit of the console market growth, and PS5 will add on top of the PS4 userbase some extra from the console market growth and from PC gamers who had a Xbox for the AAA exclusives but since all the 1st party games of the new one will be on PC they'll pick a PS5 for that, or people who had an XBO only this gen but will switch to PS5 to play the PS4 and PS5 exclusives. I expect this number to be way higher than the PS4 only users who this gen will move to Series X to play XBO and Series X exclusives or for getting the best console version for multis if it is the case.

Regarding GamePass I think it will be one of the main Series X selling points plus BC for existing XBO users but this increase will be compensated with people moving to use GamePass on PC instead, or with people moving to PS5. This gen PS4 had ~2x-2.5x times the sales of XBO, I expect PS5 to have ~2.5-3x times the Series X|S sales. I also think the difference to be bigger during the first couple of years and then in late 2022 or 2023 once MS starts releasing their big next gen only AAA exclusives they will start to reduce the difference, which I predict to end with a ~2.5x+ difference in favor of PS5 at the end of their full generation lifecycle.

As a mid gen refresh I think MS will buy someone with a VR headset (like Valve, this would help them to dominate the PC western market) to compete with PSVR2, that I think will be released in 3 years from now and I think will fix most of the issues PSVR1 had, which will help the VR market grow but still will continue being a secondary market.
 
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MrA

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Totally possible, creating partnership with apple, raise price of all I phones by 800 usd,because their costumers won't care, bundle digital only ps5 with each Iphone, says it is a deluxe stand that also plays games, bam 1 billion ps5s long term
 

Ixiah

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Does this guy usualy make predictions on how high Biden will win ?
 
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May 22, 2018
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Why are so many analysts so out of touch with reality when it comes to video games. They make some of the dumbest predictions.

My prediction is unless Sony does something really stupid the PS5 should be another 100 million selling console for sure. 200 million is just not happening and 300 million is just a lol.
What about 700 million tho?!
 

Memorabilia

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Oct 25, 2013
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JFC I can't wait until after both consoles launch so we can finally see an end to the batshit crazy threads...

Oh, who am I kidding? It's about to go full on Cuckoos Nest up in here.
 

StormCell

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Launch aligned, PS4 is outselling PS2 since the first year. It still has room for big price counts, on its 7th year continued breaking different historical records, has big games coming, this generation is way easier/cheaper to make crossgen games and it has ongoing revenue generations that don't require new games (PS Plus, PS Now, Netflix, etc). Sony said they will support it for years, and they support their home consoles for at least 10 years.

It's pretty likely that PS4 may end outselling total PS2 numbers, and that at least on its first year PS5 will outsell PS4 aligning launches, and the console market has been growing every year since forever so it will continue growing. But I highly doubt PS5 may pass the 200M mark.

PS2 enjoyed an extended life as a very affordable DVD player that also plays games. I doubt that will be the case for PS4 because it doesn't offer anything like that. It has all the streaming apps, but what TV doesn't already do this out of the box? I would say it plays 4K blu-ray, but strangely PS4 Pro doesn't. I doubt people are going to buy PS4 for a blu-ray player when there are much cheaper alternatives that also run streaming apps. What is the common person appeal to buy cheap PS4?

As a secondary support argument, I also offer the Wii's success story. There were a few reasons Wii sold so well. Early on, it offered the most fun at a lower price. It had a great library of games for the first couple of years. Then I discovered something I had never expected... lots of older people were buying the Wii to use it to stream Netflix/etc. They weren't buying just one Wii. They were buying one for every room of the house because by this time you could buy them for $100. Of course, this selling point was always going to be short-lived as HD TV's became Smart TV's.

I think that in order for a console to continue to sell long after its successor is on the market, it takes more than price reductions and requires some feature that isn't out of date. 4K TVs are increasingly common, so who wants a blu-ray player that won't play 4K blu-ray? That is like the only common feature, and even that has less value due to streaming. Why is PS4 going to sell to people with only a passing interest in the games? They have their phones. They have their TV that does all the things. I'm just looking for that reason that a non-gamer would keep a PS4 by their TV like so many people did with PS2.