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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding
- Thread starter Jezbollah
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Huw_Dawson
Member
Looks like the Yougov poll wasn't an outlier.
We're through the looking glass, people.
May's campaign will have to restart next week. She's facing a Corbyn-lead Labour movement that is now snapping at her heels and she has no real answer to beyond "Corbyn's a lunatic!"
Which is a point I can empathise with, but it's abundantly clear that that isn't working.
...
And the Yougov poll:
We're through the looking glass, people.
May's campaign will have to restart next week. She's facing a Corbyn-lead Labour movement that is now snapping at her heels and she has no real answer to beyond "Corbyn's a lunatic!"
Which is a point I can empathise with, but it's abundantly clear that that isn't working.
...
And the Yougov poll:
Huw_Dawson
Member
No, these are based on normal weightings AFAIK - there's been no adjustment to change the demographics mid-campaign.
FlammableD
Banned
Hi from British WrassleGAF
Code:
[IMG]https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t31.0-8/p720x720/18699714_10158705370860048_514234328806943179_o.jpg?oh=68a6bd05c7fb1f857256faf1979f230c&oe=59B467F4[/IMG]Royal_Phalanx
Member
Anecdotally all the youth in my circles are regular voters. All are either Labour/Lib Dem. Can't really do anything else to "do my part" to encourage voting, fortunately. Thought of trying canvassing but I'm socially awkward and can't pitch things to people.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Here's one projection I'm playing with:
40/36/10/4/2 (SNP 43% in Scotland) - weighting LDs in London and SE up to 12% each to reflect Yougov's regional polling.
If Corbyn and Labour can re-focus their media fire on Tory policy, I think getting the Tories to 40% is possible.
Southport loses on swing here, but it's close and Southport Lib Dems are one of the best campaign teams in the country. Considering that this represents a hold of Carshalton, I think RP would be held too...
Don't forget that the DUP may lose one or two seats this election - one to Alliance, one to SF.
So suppose the LDs hold all their seats including Richmond Park (difficult but not impossible). By the numbers above that would mean the Tories were short 5. DUP have, say, 7 seats, so that means the Tories+DUP get a majority of nine. (The Government gains 7 MPs, the Opposition loses 7 MPs)
To get rid of a majority of nine, the LDs would need to win five seats from the Tories, maybe:
Twickenham
Lewes
Eastleigh
Bath
Kingston and Surbiton
And boom, Tories lose a workable majority.
40/36/10/4/2 (SNP 43% in Scotland) - weighting LDs in London and SE up to 12% each to reflect Yougov's regional polling.
If Corbyn and Labour can re-focus their media fire on Tory policy, I think getting the Tories to 40% is possible.
Southport loses on swing here, but it's close and Southport Lib Dems are one of the best campaign teams in the country. Considering that this represents a hold of Carshalton, I think RP would be held too...
Don't forget that the DUP may lose one or two seats this election - one to Alliance, one to SF.
So suppose the LDs hold all their seats including Richmond Park (difficult but not impossible). By the numbers above that would mean the Tories were short 5. DUP have, say, 7 seats, so that means the Tories+DUP get a majority of nine. (The Government gains 7 MPs, the Opposition loses 7 MPs)
To get rid of a majority of nine, the LDs would need to win five seats from the Tories, maybe:
Twickenham
Lewes
Eastleigh
Bath
Kingston and Surbiton
And boom, Tories lose a workable majority.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
CON: 44% (-2)
LAB: 38% (+4)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
(via @ORB_Int / 24 - 25 May)
Looks like Tory lead is about 7 percentage points at the moment, averaging what we're having in.
LAB: 38% (+4)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 5% (-2)
(via @ORB_Int / 24 - 25 May)
Looks like Tory lead is about 7 percentage points at the moment, averaging what we're having in.
The issue is I'm not sure what that subtle difference could be?
A position that "Oh, terrorists undoubtedly use our dodgy foreign policy decisions to drive recruitment for terrorism, but that doesn't mean our dodgy foreign policy positions cause any terrorism!" seems rather untenable.
Nobody, certainly not even Corbyn, is suggesting that Islamist terrorism only exists because of our many interventionist fuckups, merely that those fuckups play a part in the causes of Islamist terrorism and should be considered as part of any broader solution to Islamist terrorism.
Also the last paragraph is just bonkers, and it's an act of gross historical vandalism the Tories are guilty of too. We've been fucking up the Middle East for a long fucking time before Iraq or 9/11, so to act like any history of Islamist terror should start there is absurd. It's like taking the Brighton Bombing as the start of The Troubles and trying to work from there, you're ignoring hundreds of years of British/Irish history and wondering why nothing makes sense.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Farron's argument is that we didn't cause the ideology that drives modern terrorists via interventions in Libya/Iraq/Syria and so on. You'd still have terrorists wanting to kill Brits.
But he does believe that foreign policy has been a recruitment tool.
That's not controversial at all. Overall there's - as Farron says - subtle but important differences between what the Lib Dems think and what Corbyn thinks.
I do wish he'd come out with that yesterday. It's become apparent this campaign that Farron's at his best when he's given a bit of time to come up with a comment, rather than doing the standard press routine of trying to come up with a tabloid's byline.
The logic does go further than that. Lib Dems don't believe that intervention is always a bad idea. We pressed for intervention in Bosnia. Corbyn's speech was very anti-interventionist in tone - which lead to questions about what it'd take for folks to go in.
Standard Liberal problem - a view that takes more than five seconds to explain is a view the press don't care about.
But he does believe that foreign policy has been a recruitment tool.
That's not controversial at all. Overall there's - as Farron says - subtle but important differences between what the Lib Dems think and what Corbyn thinks.
I do wish he'd come out with that yesterday. It's become apparent this campaign that Farron's at his best when he's given a bit of time to come up with a comment, rather than doing the standard press routine of trying to come up with a tabloid's byline.
The logic does go further than that. Lib Dems don't believe that intervention is always a bad idea. We pressed for intervention in Bosnia. Corbyn's speech was very anti-interventionist in tone - which lead to questions about what it'd take for folks to go in.
Standard Liberal problem - a view that takes more than five seconds to explain is a view the press don't care about.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Oh come on, I don't think Corbyn's a lunatic. I think he's a member of the so-called "looney left" - but that's beside the point. (I think if I was a Tory and looked at Corbyn, I'd think he was a lunatic - such is the difference in beliefs)
Corbyn and the Lib Dems have agreed on the problems with UK foreign policy for a long time, but he doesn't advocate intervention that often, whereas we believe intervention for humanitarian reasons is right, and he has a more pacifist view of international politics and the use of force, whereas we believe that there can be situations where force is justified.
Corbyn and the Lib Dems have agreed on the problems with UK foreign policy for a long time, but he doesn't advocate intervention that often, whereas we believe intervention for humanitarian reasons is right, and he has a more pacifist view of international politics and the use of force, whereas we believe that there can be situations where force is justified.
Aye that I can agree with. I'm not a pacifist either.
Huw_Dawson
Member
Yup. I regret getting so adamant yesterday now - I should have just waited until Farron got a chance for a proper response to the speech as given. I'm too defensive - he's from my neck of the woods and a similarly poor background, so I'm a bit more rabid to his defence than other Lib Dems.
Coriolanus
Banned
fwiw corbo's position on intervention, from what ive seen, has been quite consistent: he's for it, so long as the diplomatic channels have been exhausted and it doesn't consist mostly of "bomb the fuck outta them and let the deities sort them out". Wants, like, a long term plan with clear goals, UN auth and stuff.
Vile.
Monty Mole
Member
I see what YouGov is doing now.
i think that means you, huw_dawson.
i dunno if this strategy is gonna work out as well for them as they assume it will, though. the polls have come in that the majority 'agree' with corbyn's (and fucking everyone else's) assessment that 'FOREIGN POLICY INFLUENCES TERRORISM' (highlighted to emulate headline effect on people who don't read but do vote). may attacking him, boris saying it was monstrous, and even farron coming out against it despite the second two having said the exact same thing fairly recently (dunno about may, has she?') made them look like idiots, and so in the barely conscious public's minds that people like rudd imagine they are appealing to, this might just sound like 'corbyn is still wrong though!!!', while the tide has shifted towards him on this issue due to headlines like may reducing police numbers and the aforementioned hypocrisy of the conservatives.
so i think, y'know, have at it. it's an interesting thing to start an election with absolutely no hope it will go your way, when the side you sympathise with puts up an actual fight, and you see the opposition kind of convulse like this, it's a funny thing.
Huw_Dawson
Member
It's midnight in Richmond Park.
Zac Goldsmith wakes up at his desk, screaming.
His campaign agent, busy preparing Zac's 2am snack, drops the toasting fork. "What's wrong!", they proclaim, alarmed.
Zac is sweating. He takes out a silk handkerchief and mops his brow.
"I had a horrible dream. Another Tory pulled the 'vote Labour, get terror' card. They were... they were desperate. It was horrible."
"There, there", his agent says, with an understanding smile. From the rack next to the mini-fridge they pull out a £200 bottle of wine, and pours the shaking Zac a glass. "It was just a dream. No Tory will ever try that old wheeze again."
It doesn't work in metropolitan london. I'm not so sure about it not working in the areas of the country where they are looking for seats though. Like the 'jobs for boys and girls' comment, it shocks and appals us but plays extremely well to certain population groups I think.
Are ICMResearch good?
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
how thin would it have to get for a minority conservative government?
Huw_Dawson
Member
"Vote Corbyn, get terror" is an awful campaign headline, though. We can debate if foreign policy and terror are linked until the cows come home, but there's a special brand of horrible for someone that links the opposition directly to acts of terror.
@Bonen no Max'd, a minority government would need May to slip three or four more points.
@Bonen no Max'd, a minority government would need May to slip three or four more points.
Monty Mole
Member
It depends whether their results fit your agenda or not.
I was hoping we'd see a more grown-up and considered campaign from all sides following the shocking events of this week, but no..
I don't have one apart from seeing the truth.
Monty Mole
Member
In that case you'll need to wait until June 9th.
eh man y'know, we have been seeing a grown up campaign from one particular side. i'm not even gonna vote labour, but if there is a way to respond to an attack during an election campaign, that was it.
i dunno how much resistance i'll find to this idea here, might just be accepted, but the right do tend to reveal themselves as willing to stoop to any level when it comes to persuading an uneducated public to elect them so that they can enact their underlying, less sensationalist ideas. the reason the left is perceived as weak is because, in general, it doesn't go for the gutter headline and tries to encourage an element of nuance into the public discussion.
Huw_Dawson
Member
The latter. Crosby wants no more discussion of policy this campaign - it's all "Corbyn is awful" and "Only we can deliver Brexit".
TomWaitsForNoMan
Banned
Massive "fuck the tories" chants at PROGRESS today. Really lovely stuff
Edit in case that reads as sarcastic: I am sincerely happy that people were chanting that
Interesting. Crosby is a supreme bile-thrower so I figured he'd be behind it all, but it seems possibly not...
Royal_Phalanx
Member
Outside the cities which don't vote Conservative anyway the fearmongering will work.
OverBlood 3
Banned
Well I've heard from Aaron Bastani he said 3 hours ago on twitter that Crosby is 'now heading up Tory Campaign' and Paul Mason 2 hours ago on twitter was quoting someone who said that Crosby has 'endorsed a new strategy' for Theresa May.
Edit:
Apparently the guy previously was called Jim Messina
Jesus H Fuck. Is there a source/transcript for that interview? Because even though I deeply dislike Rudd I'm prepared to give her the benefit of the doubt where the Mail is involved.
EDIT: Seems legit, though the worst quotes aren't included in the little video summary. http://www.*****************/news/article-4548626/Home-Secretary-Amber-Rudd-goes-warpath.html
I think it's possible for her to win just a minority government with somewhere between 3.5 and 5 percent of the vote.
SporeCrawler
Member
so is ther still a chance that labor may win?
There was never really a chance in the first place, but it's still looking likely for Labour to exceed expectations, give the Conservatives a fright, and possibly cost May her job if she doesn't get a large enough majority.
The days are numbered for Conservatives in Government, I think. An increasingly shaky record, mounting problems with numerous domestic issues, probably economic disaster incoming...
If they're having trouble with a guy like Corbyn, who they'd written off as easy pickings from day one, then they're absolutely fucked if Labour gets someone more organised and harder to smear, but keeps the same grassroots fire that gave Corbyn his bounce.
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