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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
thefro said:
There's literally someone on the way home who has a Trump/Pence, Gregg (D candidate for Gov), Ritz (D Sec. of Education), Bayh, then all the local Republican candidates' signs in their yard.
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I have zero problem with this. Yeah, it kind of makes no sense, but at least the person is willing to vote for sonebody outside of one party.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Amir0x said:
Ive always sort of viewed it a blessing we are where we are, considering i started this election season thinking Supreme Court nominations were all we could accomplish. We win back Senate, we already further than i expected. But i do genuinely believe polls will all be understating Hillary's final tally. We have never had such a large gap between campaigns in terms of data/gotv.
Click to expand...

I've been pretty confident we have the house now for a few weeks, and see no reason to change that prediction.

Back in the summer there were a fair amount of "what would it take for dems to win the house" articles, and consensus had that figure at +6 to +8 nationally. That's exactly where Wang was, in fact. The most pessimistic was Kyle kondik at +10 and Wang was sour on that estimate.

We're now in a situation where Hillary is comfortably POLLING at +10 among LV. not factoring in ground game from unlikely voters which gave Obama another 3 points to the final tally in 2012.

Still, there's been no change in the narrative that "dems can't win the house" despite credible polls rolling in well over +10 and early voting smashing records. It goes directly against where everyone whose job it is to predict these things put the bar back when +6 or +7 was a pipe dream, not a low level outlier.

Why? I think no one wants to be the first guy to stick his neck out on something impossible, then have to eat crow on November 9th.

It's far easier to hedge bets and play it conservative and act surprised when a flip happens, then have to walk back a narrative like Gallup did in 08 or Nate bronze did in the primaries.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
NYCmetsfan said:
This article has some good bits but again, its an article which completely divorces civil rights and the potential beneficiaries of that policies. How many black store owners were protected in that mom-and-pop store bill, what about the giant expansion of government that probably did more to lead to prosperity rather than anti-monopoly power (medicare, medicaid, Social security, military expansion, war contracts and subsidies, the dearth of Asian and European competition due to the war)

Again, this is a conclusion in search of some historical justification for their claim to being the real Democrats

The economic populists never left (again, these always ignore that Black legsilators have constantly been one of the strongest voices for these same things but they're ignored in favor or the white leaderships view), the country movie right as a whole not some sell out democrats.

These analysis really really want to ignore so much of the world in favor of the idea that anti-corporate stuff is going to unite the working and middle class and lead to... hell I don't even think they know what... its just about reducing power.

I mean paragraphs like this illistrate the point


None of these are issues the American people want fixed. None of these are things people complain about or even believe need to be fixed by and large. In fact many of these HAVE lowered prices (especially Amazon) and just randomly smashing them up isn't going improve lives even if it improves competition, its a type of vanity project of having your goals and pretending people care.
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The part that the article is trying to make that I think is that there is historical precedent for smashing those kinds of companies up leading to greater economic progress due to the competition. For all of those mom and pop store bill that were protected earlier on, most of them are dead because of what Amazon has become (and I like Amazon for the most part) - those temporary pro social justice measures have arguably come at the price of economic policy that suppress new small business creation (which has a much higher benefit to the US then new jobs in large businesses, where the work may not be done in the US, and are predominantly likely to give jobs to local minorities, as being seen in the few cities that are thriving), drive gentrification (often by those liberal big business titans - see SF and Seattle), extreme economic inequality during the recovery, and often contain of direct gains to social equality at the cost of indirect economic losses to those who gain social equality.

Entrepreneuriship: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/st-louis-is-the-new-startup-frontier/

dramatis said:
Read it two days ago, but I think the thrust of the article was centered around economic populism, so I didn't dock it point for not talking about civil rights. The writer concedes that there was significant progress on the social front, and says that these gains have to be kept.

While Wright Patman was praised for his populism in the piece, the author noting that Patman supported segregation stained Patman plenty in my eyes. In a way, by arriving to the diverse coalition of today, we have the mind and care to implement economic policies and legislation with careful thought for minorities as well from this starting point, which is better than what it was before. I think that's a good thing and the author encourages thinking about economic policies with the Democratic coalition in mind as well.
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If you want to be super mean / squint really hard to the Democrats about this; you could argue the ascendancy of Clinton over Warren (Sanders was a proxy for Warren, let's be honest) are the Democrats making the same bargain that the Republicans did in 2000. Rather than being a party of economic elites (big businesses in 2000) and social policy (evangelicals and christians), we're moving towards a party of economic elites (Silicon Valley, big businesses located in typically liberal areas) and social justice (equality for minorities). Just as it was apparent to Democrats in the 2000s that big businesses were taking advantage of evangelicals to vote for tax policy (and then kept putting off the social policy changes they swore were coming); there is the possibility that the same thing is happening now for the Democrats. Which is sort of the Warren / Sanders argument, that the economic wing is also really important, even if it doesn't directly lead to the Obama coalition, and that we can't abandon the economic wing for the social policy wing.

It's an interesting plot point moving forward, how well the Warren wing and the Clinton wing get along. Post Trump, does the economic argument arise with new gusto, or has the ascendancy of Trump pushed social equality / immigration issues to the top of the list? (And are the two mutually exclusive?)
 
T

TestOfTide

Banned
Amir0x said:
Ive always sort of viewed it a blessing we are where we are, considering i started this election season thinking Supreme Court nominations were all we could accomplish. We win back Senate, we already further than i expected. But i do genuinely believe polls will all be understating Hillary's final tally. We have never had such a large gap between campaigns in terms of data/gotv.
Click to expand...

Yep. As I said earlier in this thread, the bar is very high for a high house flip, but we might just have all the ingredients to flip it:

- GOTV gap between Dems and GOP. In fact early voting data shows that Dem GOTV is getting a lot of unlikely voters to the polls.
- Civil War within the GOP, causing a few deplorables to only vote for the top of the ticket as a "protest"
- Our biggest gains in the polls have come from suburban areas, which is exactly what we need to flip more seats.
- Split-ticket voters are an ever decreasing group, meaning that there is a decent chance of most Hillary voters voting straight ticket Dem.
- Voter enthusiasm is down among the GOP and up among the democrats, which was enough for us to win the house in 2006 MIDTERMS. This is further magnified by Trump claiming the election is "rigged", which makes GOP voters less enthusiastic and Dem voters more confident in their votes mattering.
- GOP is set to take historic losses among Hispanics and Women and even college educated white people.
- Evidence and logic suggest that it's not "shy Trump voters" that we should expect, but actually "shy Clinton voters" and possibly a David Duke 1991 effect.
- The current speaker of the house, Paul Ryan, is now hated by both sides. And that hate of Paul Ryan is going to play a role in whether they vote for a Dem or GOP candidate for their US House Districts.
- Obama is enjoying very good favorables right now, which can help downballot Dems.
- The "woodwork" effect is starting to kick in right now where more and more democrats come out of the woodwork to help the campaign.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Manmademan said:
I've been pretty confident we have the house now for a few weeks, and see no reason to change that prediction.

Back in the summer there were a fair amount of "what would it take for dems to win the house" articles, and consensus had that figure at +6 to +8 nationally. That's exactly where Wang was, in fact. The most pessimistic was Kyle kondik at +10 and Wang was sour on that estimate.

We're now in a situation where Hillary is comfortably POLLING at +10 among LV. not factoring in ground game from unlikely voters which gave Obama another 3 points to the final tally in 2012.

Still, there's been no change in the narrative that "dems can't win the house" despite credible polls rolling in well over +10 and early voting smashing records. It goes directly against where everyone whose job it is to predict these things put the bar back when +6 or +7 was a pipe dream, not a low level outlier.

Why? I think no one wants to be the first guy to stick his neck out on something impossible, then have to eat crow on November 9th.

It's far easier to hedge bets and play it conservative and act surprised when a flip happens, then have to walk back a narrative like Gallup did in 08 or Nate bronze did in the primaries.
Click to expand...

your high on hopium. I like that. Optimistic Aaron 2.0. I hope you are right.
 
lyrick

lyrick

Member
johnsmith said:
Um. What's this about

screen-shot-2016-10-25-at-4-36-01-pm.png



Right wing spin is she was drunk st 4:30 in the afternoon
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These emails are so fucking boring unless you take them out of context. I bet Emails from Bannon or Manafort would be Crazy town, Bigly.
 
D

DontBeThatGuy

Member
When Trump says we will shun every Syrian REFUGEE, and the crowd goes fucking nuts, I want to smack every single one of them. Deplorable little shits. (first time I've listened to any of his speeches in quite a few months)
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
DontBeThatGuy said:
When Trump says we will shun every Syrian REFUGEE, and the crowd goes fucking nuts, I want to smack every single one of them. Deplorable little shits. (first time I've listened to any of his speeches in quite a few months)
Click to expand...

Those four year olds and widows are too dangerous to let into the United States, obviously. They must die instead from Russian bunker bombs.

Trump should be exiled to Aleppo.
 
S

Skiptastic

Member
Plinko said:
I have zero problem with this. Yeah, it kind of makes no sense, but at least the person is willing to vote for sonebody outside of one party.
Click to expand...
Indiana has shown it is willing to vote split over the past few elections more than one might think. So, it doesn't necessarily make sense, but it kind of does.
 
T

tbm24

Member
DontBeThatGuy said:
When Trump says we will shun every Syrian REFUGEE, and the crowd goes fucking nuts, I want to smack every single one of them. Deplorable little shits. (first time I've listened to any of his speeches in quite a few months)
Click to expand...

Pretty sure any type of immigrant triggers them.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
TumblingHippo said:
lol I just got whiplash watching that cut from spooky-scary horror-warning Trump to positive Present and Future Queens on CNN
Click to expand...

Such a sharp contrast. Donald Trump is angry. His supporters are angry. Vote for Trump if you are angry. What are you angry about? Well, mostly dog whistles but also Killary Clinton. Oh and things also that are outside of any President's control that Donald will magically fix because magic.

Clinton wants to bring everybody together. Is calm. Wants to improve life. Some sadness and maybe disappointment directed at Trump, but, no raging anger.
 
H

Hooligan69

Member
sturgboski said:
God I hate the GOP, fucking terrible.

Edit:
@Blader above:

That's assuming Dems get and keep Senate. With all the gerrymandering, good luck.
Click to expand...

If we're lucky enough to get it this year, I fear nothing will happen due to GOP obstruction until they win it back in 2018. We're proper fucked until some real 3rd party redistricting happens. I guess we'll have the presidency for a while, but nothing else.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
So some Florida early voting things:

Dems are now tied in the early vote after 3 days. This is a good thing. GOP usually has a massive lead in absentee. They did not this year. But, the fact that the party registration is 41/41/18 doesn't tell the whole story. A plurality of Puerto Rican voters are registered as no party affiliation. Also, 20% of African American voters are NPA.

The counties in which Democrats are over performing our registration (I included the total number of votes out of each county from 2012)

Alachua (120k)
Sarasota (207k)
Palm Beach (601k)
Broward (757k)
Orange (464k)

The counties in which Republicans are over performing their registrations

Holmes (8k)
Dixie (6.9k)
Okeechobee (12k)
Glades (4k)
Baker (11k)

We're also turning out more voters who wouldn't pass a likely voter screens than the GOP is.
 
W

Wolfgunblood Garopa

Member
Hooligan69 said:
If we're lucky enough to get it this year, I fear nothing will happen due to GOP obstruction until they win it back in 2018. We're proper fucked until some real 3rd party redistricting happens. I guess we'll have the presidency for a while, but nothing else.
Click to expand...

Obama is making redistricting his primary political goal after he leaves office, and he's already been getting that effort off the ground. It will take time, but eventually the Dems are going to be in good shape.
 
R

rjinaz

Member
Yeah I'm not worried about Florida at all. Well I'm not actually worried period, because Trump has no path. I think there will be closer states than Florida.
 
T

thebloo

Member
dramatis said:
Well, Vox did try to look into the possibility of making it a more 'sellable' policy to the public.

Climate legislation is going to be a pain in the ass :(
Click to expand...

People truly don't give a shit. It's almost never part of political discussion, just a talking point like "oh, the rare animals dying, it's so, so bad".

The only way to get things done is to scare the bejeezus out of people. It's not a nice strategy, but it's the only one that would get something done.
 
G

GhaleonEB

Member
15.5m early votes cast, according the midday update. It's going to crush the 2012 figure at this point.

Manmademan said:
I've been pretty confident we have the house now for a few weeks, and see no reason to change that prediction.
Click to expand...
The boundaries drawn for the districts Dems need to take would like to have a word with you. I really don't think looking at national trends helps when so many were walled off to concentrate what are now Trump die hards.

Zukkoyaki said:
Pew:

Clinton 46
Trump 40
Click to expand...

Still way too many undecideds in these polls. Who are these people?
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Political Polls
‏@PpollingNumbers
National PSR/associate international Poll

Clinton 49 (+11)
Trump 38

Steve Koczela ‏@skoczela 38m38 minutes ago
New @BostonGlobe poll of MA:
Clinton 57%
Trump 25%
Johnson 4%
Stein 3%
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
HylianTom said:
FLOTUS chair-dancing behind Hillary:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SteveKopack/status/791711747614904321/photo/1
Click to expand...

Better than what Trump was doing to that chair in the town hall debate.

thebloo said:
People truly don't give a shit. It's almost never part of political discussion, just a talking point like "oh, the rare animals dying, it's so, so bad".

The only way to get things done is to scare the bejeezus out of people. It's not a nice strategy, but it's the only one that would get something done.
Click to expand...

And this is why republicans are so effective with their marketing.
 
J

Joeytj

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hillary's plans for Syria are really vague, it's kind of odd.

Not sure what she plans to do.
Click to expand...

Not much to do except continue the current strategy of pushing ISIS out of Iraq, which is working. About Syria itself, it will probably be resolved before Hillary is sworn in or the facts on the ground would have changed significantly by then.
 
R

RoKKeR

Member
Just picked up on the fact that Trump's cronies are now attacking McMullin... how absolutely telling.

Sent my ballot in today, hope that orange hack gets embarrassed in Utah.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Following the news that Chaffetz continues to be a spineless cowardly shit, I feel it's time to quote that HuffPo article again:

Your voters elevated Trump nearly to the White House, and he may yet make it there, in spite of everything. They did so because you have primed them for Trump for more than half a century. Half a century of barely concealed appeals to racism, of fomenting fear and hatred and coaxing the worst instincts out of enough voters to gain power. Years of nurturing ― on AM radio and cable TV and the internet ― a propaganda machine that encourages ignorance, mistrust and anger.

You have lost control of the golem you created.

You made promises you knew you couldn’t keep, and your voters finally lost faith in you. Now, they’re turning on you.

They follow a man who doesn’t even share your beliefs. You’re learning just how little those voters cared about conservatism and how very much they cared about stomping their boots on the throats of people who don’t look like them or love like them or think like them. You made this possible by making villains out of African-Americans, Latinos, LGBTQ people, the poor.

When this is all over, you may win your own re-elections. You may retain control of Congress and of governors mansions, state legislatures, county councils and school boards all across the nation. You may sigh in relief that you survived. You may even ― and not terribly long from now ― regain the presidency and resume carrying out your agenda. Your own careers may be successful.

But history will condemn you. History won’t forget your cravenness. Because you knew.
Click to expand...
 
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