I have gone back and forth so much on whether or not to even post my predictions for this "next Gen" because when I have posted it, it's been met with a mixed response. However, like so many others here, after years of watching this stuff play out I think I can take a reasonably realistic crack at this. I don't have ANY insider connections or access to info. This is all just from watching these companies, and the massive market shift that's happened over the last several years and is still happening.
First off, just in my opinion, it's WAY too early to be making E3 predictions. It's 5 months out yet. The year is just 4 days old. Was kind of hoping this kind of thread would come a bit later this year, like in March or April but oh well. It is what it is.
Now for what I honestly expect "Next Gen" to look like:
Microsoft- Having watched them the last few years shift their focus from games to wanting to really get a huge multimedia initiative going, I'm going to say this much. MS will be releasing a box, that's for sure. Will people be happy with what they see at it's unveiling? I get the feeling not so much. YES, it will play games but I honestly think they are going for a set top box a la Apple TV with an enormous emphasis on multimedia. If I were them, I'd be going for a huge multimedia presence too. Any company who puts out a box at this point needs multimedia capabilities. It's just smart. Look at how Netflix and Hulu have both taken off. While the 360 can certainly do both currently, they're probably wanting something that will unify all of that..plus their own video and music services together. As I said, it will still play games but I think the gaming aspect is going to take a huge backseat in Microsoft's mind. The core of their gaming initiative going forward is probably going to be expanding Live onto PCs and tablets. Again, very smart move. Live has a massive install base on the 360 right now, expanding to PCs/tablets will give them an even bigger audience and give you lots of ways to access and use it. I don't see the "core" gamers being too thrilled with MS's direction at all. In fact when that thing is unveiled I fully expect to see plenty of fits thrown. It's a pretty good hunch where they're headed though.
Nintendo- I am gonna be honest, the Wii U launch has shocked the crap out of me. I disagree strongly with all these people online going "Wii U flopped! Plenty in stores!" It IS true there's plenty in stores but I think Reggie and Scott Moffitt did an excellent job of keeping their word on plentiful supply for the holidays. I'm really impressed by that. They said everyone that wanted one for Christmas would be able to find one and that's what happened. I think what people are seeing (area dependent of course) is constant restocking. Not in all locations but definitely the areas where it's doing well. In 2013, everyone that has been begging to get sneak peeks at Retro's project, SSB4, and the next 3D Mario will get that. I'd suspect at least 2 of those 3 will be Holiday 2013 games. It's anyone's guess what they're cooking up for 2014 though for Wii U. I expect 3DS to have a good year. I think some of the localizations people want will happen, others not. I have a feeling we'll see DQ7 at the very least. I think their smartest bet is to convince those who still don't want a Wii U why it's worth buying. If they can do that they'll be fine.
Sony- That company.. is in serious crap. There's no two ways around it. I'm not a financial expert or armchair analyst. Not gonna pretend to be. I hate to put it that bluntly but they are in for the fight of their existence right now. The next year to 18 months and what they do will seal their final fate, be it good or bad. They haven't got a lot of time to fix their mess and they'll only get one chance to do it-if they're lucky. I'll get the easiest part of this out of the way now: Vita. Vita's pretty much done folks. I hate to say that, too. It's a great portable that just came a few years too late. I think Vita got as close to a miracle as it's gonna get in November with that astounding 250k boost. IF it had launched at that price, with a memory card..it would have had a better fate. Right now, I suspect Sony and 3rd parties will honor all current Vita projects. After that it's done. Sony's aim will be to get Tearaway, Warriors Lair, and Dragon's Crown out at least. I expect discontinuation will come by mid year. Late year absolute latest if they want to just drag this out for some insane reason. Next is PS4...Guys, I think Sony was able to afford to build and distribute dev kits, I believe that much. But the bottom line is I do not expect them to be able to afford to mass produce a PS4. With their situation I just don't see it. IF I end up wrong come E3, I'll eat my hat and maturely admit I was wrong. With the shape they're in though a PS4 in any form will be suicidal. They cannot afford even the slightest risk of a loss with something like that. They can't take that kind of loss. They simply can't afford it in monetary terms. Playstation has had an amazing 15 year history. People need to be grateful for and celebrate that. I just think their mess is beyond the point of no return. If it's not there yet, it will be soon. Management doesn't want to face hard reality or make the changes needed for whatever reason. How much longer they have depends on what they do this year. Whatever that involves will have to have PS3 at the center.
Before I get to my last prediction, I'd like to vent a concern of mine that I see ALL over on forums, not just this one. People think this whole "System Wars" thing is some eternal battle with these 3 companies, that it must include these 3 and no others, and they are exempt from the laws and rules of business. As you're seeing in Sony's case, that last part isn't true. Everything's changed and shifted so much in the last 6 to 7 years that it's affecting all 3 of those companies greatly. Yes, even the house of Mario. That's thanks to tablets in general and specifically Apple which brings me to my final prediction.
People say "Hell no!" and "They're not wanted" to Apple entering the gaming space but the reality is they've been watching this whole generation play out, looking for an ideal opportunity to jump in and I do think they've found it finally. At first, I thought they'd do a traditional console like MS and Sony. Over time though I've become convinced their plans involve Apple TV. Just a few weeks ago, there was that article talking about Apple's Smart TV and the next gen Apple TV. People need to pay really damn good attention to it because I think they're gonna jump in with the next gen of Apple TV. It WILL have some sort of physical controller, whether that be your iPhone or iTouch we'll have to wait and see. The bottom line is, they've already got the infrastructure in place needed to whoop Live's ass. They don't need to do it from the ground up. How will they do it? Marry and fuse together iTunes, App Store, and Game Center into a streamlined system like Live. I'm not sure if it'll include things like Voice/Party chat but you can bet your ass they'll fuse those 3 things together. If they make it intuitive and easy to use/navigate-well MS is going to have their fiesta crashed needless to say. Let's say they launch it at $99 bucks...they're going to sell a frickin crap ton of the things at that price guaranteed. Even if they launch at 150 or 200 they'll still do well. This is the smartest thing they could possibly have come up with. Just imagine, your full iTunes music/movie/tv show library, Netflix, Hulu, Game Center plus App store with games that take advantage of the new Apple TV's power-can't see any reason why that won't sell. All they need to do is fuse those 3 things together, unified accounts that cover iTunes, App Store, and Game Center, package it up in a great UI and yeah MS will be the first ones to hurt. It's coming. If it launches this Christmas hooooo boy that's gonna disrupt MS big time.
I do not believe Valve has the complete resources needed to jump into the console space. Eventually, yes. Right now, no. Right now it's like a puzzle that's a third to half way done.
Those are my predictions, which I stand by and are very strong guesstimates on what I think will happen. If I'm wrong on any of em I'll admit it later maturely but we'll see. It's going to be an...interesting year to say the very least.