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Pachter - Next gen is last gen; projected console sales figures; Xbox to win next gen

Sakura

Member
Next gen being the last gen makes no sense. Why would all 3 companies suddenly decide to stop making consoles?

If Sony and Microsoft decided to not make another console for example, it would just allow Nintendo to make a new console and enjoy whatever is left of the market to itself. There would be no reason for the companies to all agree to not make another console.

Even if the market shrinks, a PS5 could still be very profitable with LTD of only say 50 million.

And if the technology gets to the point where people can just "stream" games without having to buy new hardware, all the companies have to do is release some gimmick you can only get with a physical console, like VR or something.

It just doesn't make any sense to me whatsoever that the next generation will be the last, unless the world ends. If there is money to be made, regardless of whether it is less than prior generations, someone will do it.
 

qko

Member
You might need to re-read the original post of his I quoted. He, along with many others in this thread, are looking at Pachter's lifetime predictions for the PS4/720 of 85-95 million and comparing them to the current PS3/360 numbers and wondering how he can predict such a huge improvement in sales over this generation. But in actuality, it isn't really a shocking unbelievable prediction since the PS3/360 will end up around those numbers when all is said and done for them. It only looks like a huge jump if you assume the PS3/360 are completely done selling. Oh, and if you take the high end of Pachter's 85-95 million prediction AND add 5 million on top of it to get to 100 lol.

Thing is, I'm not saying the PS3 or 360 won't reach those 90 mil numbers (I feel they won't because I think they will want their first party studios and third party pubs to focus on their new consoles). I'm saying that if Patcher is saying the next generation will reach 90 million sold, then that means that according to my opinion, they will have exceeded sales from this generation. Now, if the 360/PS3 do reach 90 million I believe it will come at the cost of PS4/Durango sales if both launch this holiday. The current market cannot sustain 5 consoles selling exceptionally well. So if the PS4 launches this holiday and the PS3 is still selling on track to reach 90 million, that means the PS4 is ultimate bomba extraordinaire meaning the PS3 is selling it's typical 150k a month with PS4 sales looking like Wii U January 2013 sales months upon months in 2014. I'd bet Sony does not want to see a repeat of PS2 vs PS3 again. If Microsoft is smart, they'll let holiday 2013 be the 360's swan song and launch Durango in Q1/Q2 of 2014. I can see that strategy lead to the 360 getting close to 90 million and give Durango a heathy future forecast.

It would be ludicrous that if what I'm saying is wrong (that PS3/360 reach <90 million and next gen console hits >90 million), that Sony, Microsoft and even Nintendo would pack up their bags in the console arena. Heck even if what I'm saying is totally off base and crazy and PS3/360 reach 90 million and PS4/Durango equal those numbers that saying consoles are gone is crazy talk.

If Nintendo sells less than 70million they'll probably make a portable/console hybrid and if Microsoft or Sony sells less than that they'll probably close up shop.
 
I can well believe the Wii U under performing the Wii's amazing performance this generation, GameCube LTD type numbers wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

I'm having a harder time seeing the NextBox and PSX4 increase their respective numbers over this generation. As I believe the PS4/ Nextbox generation will be shorter than this one.

The PS4 and Nextbox just won't have titles that are appealing to the casuals and especially not at £70 / $70 / &#8364;80 software price points which is looking all the more likely. Getting casual consumers to pay these prices will be incredibly difficult now they're used to paying nothing/$1 for their tablet and phone games.

The only thing that may boost the PS4/ Nextbox LTD numbers is if system prices are heavily discounted to go along with a cable TV like subscription model. Even then the subscription would need to be very good value - which knowing Microsoft and Live is unlikely.

I would say an across the board industry contraction is how I see things panning out at the moment as the casuals seek their gaming kicks on smartphones and tablets rather than spending on comparatively very expensive dedicated gaming systems.
 
No way this is the last generation of consoles, unless of course consoles as we know them get replaced in some way by some new gaming device that...would still be, effectively, a console. Perhaps the "cloud" will take over, but even then, there may be a Sony cloud and a Microsoft cloud. We haven't hit the computational or graphical limit for a console, not by a long shot, especially when we have PCs today with better specifications than the next-gen consoles. Five years from now they'll be that much better, and that right there would be another baseline for the next-next gen to reach in terms of hardware.

The difficulty of taking advantage of that power is the only real barrier I see to game advancement. Eventually there will be a paradigm shift in terms of game development, particularly in the creation of assets to be used in games. I suspect we'll see great innovation in the area of procedural generation that allows developers to take advantage of the technology without breaking the bank. Also in the area of converting real world assets into digital counterparts, much like we see in terms of motion-capture/LA Noire facial mapping but on a larger scale.
 

SummitAve

Banned
My brain hurts lol.

Man --- really shortsighted prediction in all areas.

He said that if they DID happen that it wouldn't be anytime soon.......in march 2009. It's 4 years later, which I wouldn't call soon. All it takes is reading the first couple lines rather then taking what he says out of context for your own entertainment. The whole damn article covers its own tracks safely rather than it being some list of bold Edgar Cayce prophecies.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
And I don't think these 'experts' are giving Nintendo's system selling software enough credit during the Wii U's lifespan either. The Wii U isn't going to replicate the success of the Wii last gen, but I can't see it being another N64 or GameCube in terms of installed userbase either. Somewhere in between sounds about right to me.

Are they honestly better at system selling software now then they were in the N64 and Gamecube eras? I'd argue they're even worse at that now.
 
I believe every new console generation hits the reset button.

None of the console makers carry their customers over. Sony has to sell the PS4 to all the PS3 owners, etc.

While on the surface, Pachter is predicting a modest decline in total console sold, he is really saying that all the growth of last gen was a result of the Wii (it was) and that both Sony and Microsoft are going to be able to sell their consoles to more people than they did this time. Is that basically saying they are going to sell to Wii only owners? I thought they all had Ipads now?

I just cannot see a scenario where Nintendo, Sony or Microsoft sell more than they did last gen. Sony and Microsoft are going to be competing very tightly on almost every level and will split the audience exactly the same way they just did. While I am pretty confident in Nintendo's ability to salvage a decent generation (~60 million) the chance at a Wii repeat is gone.

I think the bottom end of Pachter's predictions of total consoles sold (200 million) is the more realistic prediction.
 

Darryl

Banned
Are they honestly better at system selling software now then they were in the N64 and Gamecube eras? I'd argue they're even worse at that now.

the Wii was a thing that happened since then and it certainly wasn't third-parties moving those units

He said that this generation as well, in 2009. Someone has said this like every generation.

http://www.escapistmagazine.com/news/view/90443-Pachter-This-Is-The-Final-Generation

people really overestimate the ability of the general public to break habits. we'll be able to see it clearly coming before it happens, no need to ruin your reputation over it
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
While on the surface, Pachter is predicting a modest decline in total console sold, he is really saying that all the growth of last gen was a result of the Wii (it was) and that both Sony and Microsoft are going to be able to sell their consoles to more people than they did this time. Is that basically saying they are going to sell to Wii only owners? I thought they all had Ipads now?

Well the theory is that people that grew up with console games continue to buy games into their 30s, 40s, 50s, ext. while young people who grew up with games get old enough to get games of thier own through parents or themselves.

I'm not in touch with the just turned 13-16 year olds of the world, but I hope that group isn't solely Ipad now.
 

Alx

Member
From @geoffkeighley

1TUeJgy.jpg


F25tZ93.jpg

The only things bothering me in those slides are the PS4 parts :
- "huge RAM makes innovation likely". RAM doesn't make for innovation, but mostly performance. Had he mentioned the cloud, sharing or other specific features, I could have agreed, but RAM ? Sure you need some to run new software, but sheer quantity doesn't imply innovation.
- "CPU power allows huge improvement" (in multimedia features). Why would you need CPU for multimedia ? In that case too, connectivity and streaming are the features to consider, not CPU power.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
the Wii was a thing that happened since then and it certainly wasn't third-parties moving those units

That was Wii Sports and Wii Fit that did that though, not Mario and Zelda, and both of those were partly hardware related. Do you think they can recreate those hits?

Personally I'd be surprised if Wii Fit 2 creates a large sales boost.
 

sono

Member
Where is the justification for next gen being last?

Durango may have tv tuner is something I had not read before.
 
What does RAM have to do with innovation?

It's typically the least graphically impressive titles that are the most innovative as of late...

Wait, no, I get it now. Sony turned RAM into the next bits... Yawn...
 
So if console went away, what does that leave us? Tablets? Oh no! I don't wanna play with touchscreens the rest of my life!

We still have PC though sometimes that's a relief... I hope.
 

Spinluck

Member
"Huge RAM makes innovation likely"

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

No. Imagination breeds innovation, not RAM.

Less limitations = More imaginative ideas.

It's like saying better hardware doesn't lead to innovation, only *Spongebob Imagination gif* imagination does.
You don't always need some gimmick to be different, and I loved the Wii and love my Wii U.

A game like, say, RE4 wouldn't have been possible on consoles before that point.

Or Shadow of The Colossus, and even that had a couple of technical struggles.

God of War, Zone of The Enders and so on. At the time, those games offered very unique experiences, that didn't require some different controller input. Just good ideas, and good hardware.

So at the people saying we won't get better and more creative games or game scenarios at some point, LOL. Don't have such a closed mind.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
Where is the justification for next gen being last?

Durango may have tv tuner is something I had not read before.

The only thing I can think of is horrendous sales, or a transformation out of consoles into something like phones that use controllers and output wirelessly to tvs or something like that as a step forward. Given those numbers, I guess Pachter is predicting the latter of those two options.
 

Darryl

Banned
That was Wii Sports and Wii Fit that did that though, not Mario and Zelda, and both of those were partly hardware related. Do you think they can recreate those hits?

Personally I'd be surprised if Wii Fit 2 creates a large sales boost.

the Wii was a success before Fit ever came around, and i've never even noticed a sales bump when the game was actually released. i don't know where you get this stuff from. i'm not expecting a boost from the Wii U version at all.

Wii Sports U, on the other hand, might give it one. the original Sports was most definitely software. it isn't hardware just because it uses the controller. MK Wii moved tons of units as well with a huge push on the controller gimmick
 
I don't have much certainly either way.

To be honest, I doubt the Wii U will even do that badly. It merely has a slow start. I predict it will do better than the PlayStation 4 in the long run.

What I don't indeed predict, is for the PlayStation 4 or next XBOX to be massive launch successes. I see them both having a very slow first year.

Which may pick up. It may pick up for all of them, Wii U, PlayStation 4, new XBOX, all of them.

But if it doesn't, it is true that the console market is in trouble and this could very well happen.
 
I'm not in touch with the just turned 13-16 year olds of the world, but I hope that group isn't solely Ipad now.

I have a younger brother and my wife teaches high school so if you willing to accept some anecdotal evidence... they don't put their phones down. Last time I was at my mom's, my brother's PS3 wasn't even hooked up.

My pet theory about the upcoming generation is that they won't pay (much) for things. Music and movies are free to them (Youtube quality is just fine), and there are so many free (or really cheap) gaming experiences available in the app stores that they are able to scratch that itch without having to resort to spending $60 on a AAA game.

That is not to say they won't get a PS4, 720 or Wii U but I just don't see a lot of growth in the console market per se.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
the Wii was a success before Fit ever came around, and i've never even noticed a sales bump when the game was actually released. i don't know where you get this stuff from. i'm not expecting a boost from the Wii U version at all.

Wii Sports U, on the other hand, might give it one. the original Sports was most definitely software. it isn't hardware just because it uses the controller. MK Wii moved tons of units as well with a huge push on the controller gimmick

I seem to remember a Wii hardware sales bump after Wii Fit, but it's been so long I can't remember for sure.

In anycase I'm sure you'd agree that Wii Sports was mostly successful because of the way it used the hardware, and you admit Mario Kart Wii's success was largely about the way it used the hardware.

How could they possibly do the same thing with the Wii U? Maybe they have some great idea that no one's ever thought of, but if it's not obvious to even us, how will they sell that idea to the casual crowd who's not so good at imagining not so obvious gameplay concepts.
 

Reuenthal

Banned
His prediction that next gen is last gen is dumb and his console sales figures although more realistic than that seem rather conservative to me.
 

Alx

Member
Less limitations = More imaginative ideas.

That's true in theory, but it's rarely observed in facts. The more common scenario is that limitations do stimulate creativity, because when you're free to do what you want, you usually take the easiest path.
Game developers innovate mostly when they need to, because of hardware, competition or budget limitations.

Of course it doesn't mean that improving technology and removing limitations is bad. But you shouldn't expect innovation as a direct consequence of raw power.
 
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thepotatoman

Unconfirmed Member
I have a younger brother and my wife teaches high school so if you willing to accept some anecdotal evidence... they don't put their phones down. Last time I was at my mom's, my brother's PS3 wasn't even hooked up.

My pet theory about the upcoming generation is that they won't pay (much) for things. Music and movies are free to them (Youtube quality is just fine), and there are so many free (or really cheap) gaming experiences available in the app stores that they are able to scratch that itch without having to resort to spending $60 on a AAA game.

That is not to say they won't get a PS4, 720 or Wii U but I just don't see a lot of growth in the console market per se.

Interesting, I wonder if a netflix style subscription to any video game they want is what that generation needs, and what that model would mean to overall revenue.
 
I really am curious about these predictions, though.

As I cannot be sure one way or the other if they are true. It certainly seems logical that the PlayStation 4 will not do any better than the Wii U.

And perhaps I just wasn't paying attention to the industry enough then, but it seems like this certainty that consoles are going to become a thing of the past is very much increasing.

And then what? Phones? PC gaming? Tablets? Handhelds? Is that what will replace the console? What is going to happen to the developers who prefer the console for development, like Nintendo, Bandai Namco, and so forth?

I'd like to hear more expert opinions on what is actually going to happen.
 

AHA-Lambda

Member
I definitely don't buy those LTD figures for PS4 and Next XBox, I doubt that next gen there will be so much parity between them both in terms of sales.
 

Darryl

Banned
In anycase I'm sure you'd agree that Wii Sports was mostly successful because of the way it used the hardware, and you admit Mario Kart Wii's success was largely about the way it used the hardware.

How could they possibly do the same thing with the Wii U? Maybe they have some great idea that no one's ever thought of, but if it's not obvious to even us, how will they sell that idea to the casual crowd who's not so good at imagining not so obvious gameplay concepts.

i think that people are expecting the Wii U to pull a Wii, and that Nintendo is failing to grab the casuals because it's not selling like crazy. I think this is a part of the plan (not the low sales, but not chasing the casuals). I think that Nintendo is trying to pull an Xbox 360/PS3. They're going to lose the hardcore audience at around Holiday '14 to '15. That's the period where their titles are going to be losing graphical parity with their competitors. They go all out these two years releasing primarily Nintendo-core titles.

Then they launch Holiday '14 with a $249 Wii U Sports (just launched) Bundle. The library will be huge. The critically-acclaimed titles built up on the platform will be huge. It'll sell like crazy.
 
Interesting, I wonder if a netflix style subscription to any video game they want is what that generation needs, and what that model would mean to overall revenue.

Well, with PSN+ and Gaikai, Sony seems to setting itself up to have that model available. Whether they can provide the value, who know?

PSN+ doesn't have the option of backward compatibility (without the cost of porting) and I think bandwidth and data caps are huge roadblock for widespread usage of Gaikai.

If 720 has BC and Microsoft makes a Platinum-level Live with unlimited access to 360's library of XBLA games? Wow, that would be hard to pass up for me.
 

mclem

Member
His LTD predictions seem silly (too high). If the next-gen console LTDs are that, then why would it be the final generation? Makes no sense since it would like this generation.

Well, to be fair, if the PS4 nails all that streaming stuff... just how would Sony coax people into upgrading to a PS5?
 
So if console went away, what does that leave us? Tablets? Oh no! I don't wanna play with touchscreens the rest of my life!

We still have PC though sometimes that's a relief... I hope.
I would assume the PC. And maybe some going to tablet. But mostly the PC.

Also, by the time a new console generation could come out anyway microprocessor technology is about to hit a brick wall anyway, and there won't be much new consoles will be able to offer over a PC, like affordability.

Even in a few years time the cheapest laptops and maybe even netbooks will be more capable than the PlayStation 4. At this point I doubt people will be all that wowed by new consoles anyway.

And to be fair about that tablet thing, a lot of them are already getting keyboards from loads of manufacturers and are basically becoming netbooks with proprietary Unix OSes on them.

I am no expert, and would honestly like the opinions of an expert.

But what I personally see in the future from my limited perspective and understanding, is the console and PC worlds starting to fuse. Where consoles become more and more like PCs until they just fade away. And Japanese companies will have to start creating for a mixture of the PC and handhelds. Mostly moving into the handheld market. Handhelds will become more like phones and tablets and what you'll start seeing is lots of phones and tablets with buttons. Or basically tablets that look like the Wii U controller. And computers themselves will start to fuse with the tablet world, as tablets are so popular, the ultrabook, the netbook, and the tablet. And we'll start to see these kind of Ubuntu-y, Android-y, Windows-y operating systems on practically ever device because tablet annoyed by their netbook not running Android things and netbook owners annoyed that their Android tablet doesn't do Windows things.

If you'll notice, tablets and netbooks right now are already practically the same thing. The only difference is that netbooks majorly use x86 and Windows while tablets use ARM and Linux-based OSes. A tablet with a keyboard is basically a Linux netbook. Especially if you root it. Meaning that netbooks have a much richer history of software developed for them. While tablet OSes are a new bandwagon mostly flooded by software costing between $2-20 dollars. And generally inferior and less professional software than what is developed for Windows.

And technology with all become this samey sludge where phones, tablets, and laptops basically all do the same things. The only real war of the future seems to be between ARM and x86 architecture.
 

DieH@rd

Banned
The only things bothering me in those slides are the PS4 parts :
- "huge RAM makes innovation likely". RAM doesn't make for innovation, but mostly performance. Had he mentioned the cloud, sharing or other specific features, I could have agreed, but RAM ? Sure you need some to run new software, but sheer quantity doesn't imply innovation.

More ram = more freedom. More freedom = more innovation.
 

Darryl

Banned
So, Q4 of this year then.

we haven't even seen Nintendo's Holiday launch line-up yet.

it's also been the trend lately to save your big-hitters for the year following your console launch (because usually the console sells itself for the first launch). i haven't seen anything saying that Sony won't be sticking to this philosophy.
 

Taurus

Member
Less limitations = More imaginative ideas.

It's like saying better hardware doesn't lead to innovation, only *Spongebob Imagination gif* imagination does.
You don't always need some gimmick to be different, and I loved the Wii and love my Wii U.

A game like, say, RE4 wouldn't have been possible on consoles before that point.

Or Shadow of The Colossus, and even that had a couple of technical struggles.

God of War, Zone of The Enders and so on. At the time, those games offered very unique experiences, that didn't require some different controller input. Just good ideas, and good hardware.

So at the people saying we won't get better and more creative games or game scenarios at some point, LOL. Don't have such a closed mind.
Those are innovative games? Really, really bad examples to prove your point.
 
I would assume the PC. And maybe some going to tablet. But mostly the PC.

Also, by the time a new console generation could come out anyway microprocessor technology is about to hit a brick wall anyway, and there won't be much new consoles will be able to offer over a PC, like affordability.

Even in a few years time the cheapest laptops and maybe even netbooks will be more capable than the PlayStation 4. At this point I doubt people will be all that wowed by new consoles anyway.

And to be fair about that tablet thing, a lot of them are already getting keyboards from loads of manufacturers and are basically becoming netbooks with proprietary Unix OSes on them.

I don't think PCs are what people are talking about...

Within a few generations (as in Moore's Law), the computational power of a PS4 equivalent will be the size of your smartphone. Combine that with diminishing returns (which is why the brickwall isn't that important) and the ubiquity of mobile computers, you will not need a dedicated device to play videogames (of any kind - AAA or casual).

You will just stream the signal to your TV, pick up your generic controller (if you want buttons) or tap your phone's screen and have fun.

I don't think the next gen is the last but the end is coming. I personally believe that even the PC will die out. In ten years, your display could have a cheap CPU/GPU in it that would kick the shit out of most current mid-tier gaming PCs.

EDIT: and you edited :)
 

Coolwhip

Banned
I have a younger brother and my wife teaches high school so if you willing to accept some anecdotal evidence... they don't put their phones down. Last time I was at my mom's, my brother's PS3 wasn't even hooked up.

My pet theory about the upcoming generation is that they won't pay (much) for things. Music and movies are free to them (Youtube quality is just fine), and there are so many free (or really cheap) gaming experiences available in the app stores that they are able to scratch that itch without having to resort to spending $60 on a AAA game.

That is not to say they won't get a PS4, 720 or Wii U but I just don't see a lot of growth in the console market per se.

That's why someone like Apple could swoop the kids up if they offer cheap gaming on your tv.
 
EDIT: and you edited :)
I tend to make posts saying the bare minimum of what I want to say.

Then I build on them.
I personally believe that even the PC will die out.
I don't think the "PC" will die out because the PC is a concept. A concept that is universally needed ever since the computer was possible.

Consoles and tablets alike are computers, they are just heavily locked down. And while that is okay for some people, it will never be okay for enthusiasts or scientists.

If anything, the tablet or phone will disappear as much as the PC and both worlds might fuse into each other. Personalized computational devices will always be needed. The same, nobody wants to ditch decades of well built software for Windows and x86 architecture.

The concept of a PC is that we have the freedom to do what we want with our computers and not be beholden to a phone service or Google Play or anything like that. To do what we want with the hardware or software. That mentality isn't going to go away. No scientist is ever going to be beholden to iTunes to put out and publish and create software related to particle accelerators.

Whether or not it exists on x86 or ARM. Linux or Windows. A tablet or a desktop. The world needs computers which are free and personal.
Within a few generations (as in Moore's Law)
Moore's law is long dead and is about to hit a brick wall when we start making processors around 10nm in the next ten years.

More cores and 3D processors and things like that will not save us.

Doesn't mean that the different computers you see today, consoles, "PCs", phones, tablets, aren't all possibly just going to merge into the same sludge. Nearly the only thing separating these softwares and hardware is old traditions and exclusives. Or basically competing companies with different products and IPs trying to force different schools and incompatibility. And those aren't pillars that can last for very long.

Or at least, that's my prediction. I don't even know for absolute certain that this is the last console generation.
 
That's why someone like Apple could swoop the kids up if they offer cheap gaming on your tv.

If the next iphone/ipad have streaming tech in them (doesn't google have something like this?) they wouldn't even need to sell the Apple TV box - just boom and done!

I wonder what sort of patents Nintendo has on their streaming tech? It's fast, lag-free and seemingly pushes a decent chunk of data across. Given Miyamoto's recent comments, Nintendo seems pretty confident about their solution.
 
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