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Bitcoin is going to ruin a ton of people mainly millennials

gatti-man

Member
I see BTC topics on my Facebook, gaming forums, investment forums and it seems like this hot sure thing. It's actually becoming so persuasive and the bubble has been so resilient people are throwing in their life savings when to me, and older investors in general, the end of bitcoin is actually pretty obvious.

BTC energy consumption will force governments to outlaw btc. This will relegate it to a black market currency/commodity only. Price will crater quickly. Many will stay in because BTC has mini crashes frequently.

The people who say blockchain will force economies to adapt don't understand economics or world fiscal policy or taxation or any of it really. It all exists because of backing and trust. If BTC had no energy or illegal transaction drawbacks I could maybe see Btc having a chance. As it stands I see it as the worlds largest financial catastrophe that will effect a specific subset of humanity that is already set to be the poorest generation yet. I am very concerned about the incredible lack of foresight people are displaying in the face of past historical gains.
 

jadedm17

Member
I thought that at $300.

I thought that again at $800.

Again $1200.

Edit : Again when that main site lost millions of coins when it shut down.

It's, how much, $8800 now?

I wouldn't put my money - and you shouldn't play more than you can afford to lose - but I honestly don't know anymore.
 

gatti-man

Member
I thought that at $300.

I thought that again at $800.

Again $1200.

Edit : Again when that main site lost millions of coins when it shut down.

It's, how much, $8800 now?

I wouldn't put my money - and you shouldn't play more than you can afford to lose - but I honestly don't know anymore.

I always thought it was an interesting idea but a gamble. Now it’s flat out dangerous. The writing is on the wall for BTC and it astounds me that so many are putting everything they have behind it. Millennials trust technology too much and current BTC value means exactly the same thing as it did when it was .01 per BTC. That’s what people don’t understand. BTC value is entirely up for interpretation all the time. Its not like gold or stock or currency backed by a govt.

What I’m trying to say is when BTC goes away, and it will because of the energy requirements, the harm done to an entire generation is concerning to me.
 

DonMigs85

Member
It does look a lot like a giant Ponzi or MLM scheme. A lot of Bitcoin investment scams going on in various countries which are likely the reason it's surged so much just this past year. Perhaps it's safer to put money into Ethereum or Litecoin, but again only what you can afford to lose.
 

gatti-man

Member
It does look a lot like a giant Ponzi or MLM scheme. A lot of Bitcoin investment scams going on in various countries which are likely the reason it's surged so much just this past year. Perhaps it's safer to put money into Ethereum or Litecoin, but again only what you can afford to lose.

When BTC dies it will kill the other coins too. It’s been going up largely because it makes illegal and illicit transactions much easier. That’s been the backbone of support and if that was it I don’t think BTC would be in trouble. What’s going to force governments to shut it down is the wasteful energy consumption of BTC. It’s a major pollutant at this point and BTC doesn’t have a single lobbyist or SUPERPAC for it. It’s doomed.
 

RainblowDash

Gold Member
I bought about 24k DogeCoins which cost about $20 when it first became available.

That was probably a bad idea lol

I have a spare AMD GPU (R9 270X) that I've thought about making a mining rig out of.
 

MultiCore

Member
I bought about 24k DogeCoins which cost about $20 when it first became available.

That was probably a bad idea lol

I have a spare AMD GPU (R9 270X) that I've thought about making a mining rig out of.
It's unlikely to be profitable unless energy costs you nothing.
 

Mikey Jr.

Member
One thing I don't get.

Lets say I bought bit coin at $100. And now its at $8000.

How the fuck do you cash out? Is someone buying $8000 of bitcoin? Sorry, super naive about the subject.
 

gatti-man

Member
One thing I don't get.

Lets say I bought bit coin at $100. And now its at $8000.

How the fuck do you cash out? Is someone buying $8000 of bitcoin? Sorry, super naive about the subject.

Probably not but someone somewhere would probably pay 6500-7k. There are also many people who lose their bitcoins or get ripped off. Many people use exchanges which themselves are totally unregulated.
 
I thought that at $300.

I thought that again at $800.

Again $1200.

Edit : Again when that main site lost millions of coins when it shut down.

It's, how much, $8800 now?

I wouldn't put my money - and you shouldn't play more than you can afford to lose - but I honestly don't know anymore.

Crossing 10k soon.

I wouldn't put my savings in purely speculative things but the rise has been just insane. If only I had put in like 5k early this year I could try to cash out now with 40k or whatever win. That's not rich people money but for me it would be v what i can otherwise save up in within a year or so...

I thought it coudn't go up more but it did every time... Maybe because of mainstream people and because cashing out isn't as simple usually as buying.
I think I'll wait for another drop that just leads to a rise again like throughout this year.

The key thing is probably to not be greedy. E.g. selling some of the share early on with the goal to just get the initial investment back to have zero risk gambling from them on.
But i would not hesitate to cash everything out if it increased by 10x again... Sure you will feel bad if it continues to increase but it's just not a longterm investment.
 

Dhx

Member
When BTC dies it will kill the other coins too. It's been going up largely because it makes illegal and illicit transactions much easier. That's been the backbone of support and if that was it I don't think BTC would be in trouble.

The majority of investment is not to hide illicit activity. Bitcoin is rather traceable with a modicum of effort.

What's going to force governments to shut it down is the wasteful energy consumption of BTC. It's a major pollutant at this point and BTC doesn't have a single lobbyist or SUPERPAC for it. It's doomed.

It's a real problem. Thankfully, Proof of Work isn't the only option and the problem is being worked on extensively. One such alternative could be Proof of Stake:

https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/a-proof-of-stake-design-philosophy-506585978d51

One thing I don't get.

Lets say I bought bit coin at $100. And now its at $8000.

How the fuck do you cash out? Is someone buying $8000 of bitcoin? Sorry, super naive about the subject.

You cash out by selling on an exchange which uses a bid/ask system just like anything else.

Probably not but someone somewhere would probably pay 6500-7k. There are also many people who lose their bitcoins or get ripped off. Many people use exchanges which themselves are totally unregulated.

You would easily be able to sell your BTC at any point within a few dollars of the current "price" and do so instantly by accepting an ask.

Also, most exchanges are absolutely regulated and US exchanges even follow arcane banking regulations such as Know Your Customer.

https://support.coinbase.com/customer/en/portal/articles/2689172-is-coinbase-regulated-
 
This is just pure speculation from my part, I am not expert at anything.

Wouldn't more government regulation actually help BTC value to rise higher?Thereotically because of FCC, it is going to be harder to acquire one,but not impossible, so it's just going to explode in terms of value.
 

iamblades

Member
When BTC dies it will kill the other coins too. It's been going up largely because it makes illegal and illicit transactions much easier. That's been the backbone of support and if that was it I don't think BTC would be in trouble. What's going to force governments to shut it down is the wasteful energy consumption of BTC. It's a major pollutant at this point and BTC doesn't have a single lobbyist or SUPERPAC for it. It's doomed.

Governments can't shut it down though, that's the whole point of the technology. They can make it harder to use, but it is impossible to even do that much in a relatively free society. You would need a world wide totalitarian government shut it down effectively, and even then it would survive in the underground niches.

Which is not to say that I think BTC will be the currency that succeeds or the best use of the technology, in fact I think it will end up being a temporary bubble that gets supplanted by better and more efficient technologies.

I certainly wouldn't be speculating any amount of money I wasn't willing to lose, but that's why it is speculation and not investment. I doubt it's effects will be any different than any other speculative bubble though.
 

llien

Member
I thought that at $300.

I thought that again at $800.

Again $1200.

Edit : Again when that main site lost millions of coins when it shut down.

It's, how much, $8800 now?

I wouldn't put my money - and you shouldn't play more than you can afford to lose - but I honestly don't know anymore.

When people speculate on gold/oil/whatever prices, there is something of value behind it. You can burn oil to generate energy. You can turn it into fuel. You can use gold in electronics. But bitcoin? Bitcoin is nothing. It only costs something, because people buying it hope to sell it at a higher price.

Isn't it "how financial pyramids work 101"?



Governments can't shut it down though, that's the whole point of the technology. They can make it harder to use, but it is impossible to even do that much in a relatively free society. You would need a world wide totalitarian government shut it down effectively, and even then it would survive in the underground niches.

How many servers are there? (Yeah, it is decentralized, but there still are servers maintaining that tens of gig blockchain file, aren't there?) How many of those servers are in China, 80%+?
Even if server network would not be vulnerable (it is), nothing stops governments from equating bitcoin operations as money laundering.
 

ProudClod

Non-existent Member
ITT: a whole bunch of ignorance and misunderstanding.

Millennials trust technology too much and current BTC value means exactly the same thing as it did when it was .01 per BTC. That's what people don't understand. BTC value is entirely up for interpretation all the time. Its not like gold or stock or currency backed by a govt.

This is one of the funniest, most misinformed criticisms of BTC I've ever heard. I'm actually 90% sure you're trolling. But I'll bite.

Where does gold gets it value from? Outside of looking pretty (and some fringe applications like semiconductor manufacturing), it's actually pretty worthless. It's a soft, malleable ore with a cool yellow tinge. You can't build anything worthwhile out of it (but you can use it as a coating to make something look cool). You can't eat it. You can't drink it.

So what is it about gold that makes it a worthwhile medium of exchange?

Well, for one, it's scarce. If you could just spawn unlimited gold at will, it wouldn't have much value, now would it?

It's also not very easy to fake. God knows people still try. But even the most novice of jewelers will be capable of spotting a fake. And that works quite well for a medium of exchange. What value could it possibly have if people could counterfeit it easily?

But most importantly, it has value because people have decided it does. That's pretty much it.

Now let's apply that same sort of analysis to BTC.

Is it scarce? Copy. Only 21 million units will ever be mined.

Is it hard to counterfeit? Double copy. It's actually near impossible. It would take a massive miner attack to add fake transactions to the blockchain. We're talking hundreds of billions of dollars worth of mining equipment just to subdue the core process. And there's no real incentive to do so. As soon as the main blockchain is compromised, the value of BTC will drop as more secure forks are developed. So, once again, yes. BTC is very hard to counterfeit.

Do people think it has value? The market is proving that to be a resounding yes. Beyond the speculation, BTC has incredible value as a protocol (distributed, trustless ledger) and as a "peg" currency to every single other crypto in existence (some of which are already multi-billion dollar enterprises themselves). There are an incredible wealth of cryptos with real world use cases (Sia & Maidsafe for decentralizing hosting, SONM and Golem for decentralized supercomputing), the price of which is pegged directly to Bitcoin. You simply can't purchase the vast majority of these cryptos directly with dollars.

Plus, it's "shiny." It's a cool technology that does cool things.

If that's not a good enough justification of its value, there is no good justification for any intermediate store of value.
 
BTC has little purpose outside criminal applications where anonymous transactions are a requirement and speculation. The idea of a blockchain is fantastic in theory but runs into problems once applied to the real world where thousands of transactions happen every second. Inevitably you have to set up trusted nodes to lighten the load and you end up with what we call a bank.
 

Crema

Member
Don't stress too much. I only got in last month and have already made 100% and cashed out my initial investment.

You'd have to be incredibly bad with money to lose money on crypto.

I do enjoy watching old dinosaur investors shaking their fists at "those damn kids" though. Just accept you missed out on a tonne of money because you got it wrong.
 

iamblades

Member
When people speculate on gold/oil/whatever prices, there is something of value behind it. You can burn oil to generate energy. You can turn it into fuel. You can use gold in electronics. But bitcoin? Bitcoin is nothing. It only costs something, because people buying it hope to sell it at a higher price.

Isn't it "how financial pyramids work 101"?





How many servers are there? (Yeah, it is decentralized, but there still are servers maintaining that tens of gig blockchain file, aren't there?) How many of those servers are in China, 80%+?
Even if server network would not be vulnerable (it is), nothing stops governments from equating bitcoin operations as money laundering.

A bitcoin node is not a server and there are thousands of them, only a small portion of which are in China:

https://bitnodes.earn.com/

Note that these numbers are listening nodes that have responded recently, the total number of full nodes is likely at least an order of magnitude higher.

Which is not to say that the size of the BTC blockchain is not a issue and one of the reasons BTC probably isn't going to be the primary implementation of the technology, it's just not a major one.

BTC has little purpose outside criminal applications where anonymous transactions are a requirement and speculation. The idea of a blockchain is fantastic in theory but runs into problems once applied to the real world where thousands of transactions happen every second. Inevitably you have to set up trusted nodes to lighten the load and you end up with what we call a bank.

That assumes the primary purpose for a blockchain currency will be consumer transactions, which probably won't be the case in places with relatively stable currencies, certainly not for a while anyway.

The places where blockchain technology will probably make the biggest impact first are places where there are large transaction costs imposed because of the difficulty in verifying ownership of the thing being sold. Things like real property, stocks, etc. It will of course take the longest to get to places that already have established legal infrastructure for these goods along with high enough asset prices that the overhead leaves acceptable margins, but the technology has the potential to be a great improvement over current methods of accounting for those types of things.
 
Bitcoin is the first of its kind really but with newer technology it will show its age. However, that doesn't make it redundant or useless. There's still a lot that isn't known. If someone wants to bet on that technology so be it. It's no different to the underlying technology that drives the Internet. A big unknown then and now look at it.
 

llien

Member
A bitcoin node is not a server and there are thousands of them, only a small portion of which are in China:

https://bitnodes.earn.com/

Note that these numbers are listening nodes that have responded recently, the total number of full nodes is likely at least an order of magnitude higher.

Which is not to say that the size of the BTC blockchain is not a issue and one of the reasons BTC probably isn't going to be the primary implementation of the technology, it's just not a major one.


Node is not a server?

Interesting, I have heard from my colleague (who had to dive into blockchain because some managers got convinced it must be something very cool and universally useful) that 80% were in China.
How does the server discover them? Could it be that it doesn't see Chinese nodes because of Great Chinese Firewall.
 

iamblades

Member
Node is not a server?

Interesting, I have heard from my colleague (who had to dive into blockchain because some managers got convinced it must be something very cool and universally useful) that 80% were in China.
How does the server discover them? Could it be that it doesn't see Chinese nodes because of Great Chinese Firewall.

He may have confused miners with nodes, basically all the mining occurs in a handful of places with highly subsidized electricity prices, as that's the only way it is economical.

Which is the reason for the insane amount of power consumption by the network, if all miners had to pay market rates for electricity there would hardly be any mining going on anymore. The speculative boom combined with the electricity subsidies in places like China have expanded the scale of the network way beyond what the level of transactions actually demands at this point in time.

Rumors have been going around that China is going to end electricity subsidies because of this, which would be a positive, but we will see.
 

llien

Member
He may have confused miners with nodes, basically all the mining occurs in a handful of places with highly subsidized electricity prices, as that's the only way it is economical.

Just clarified with him, yes, it was mining capacity.
 

gaming_noob

Member
We may see a major correction once BTC reaches over 10k and a lot of people will lose money. But it’s going to bounce back. I’ve been gambling with this since August and it does feel like Ponzi scheme. All the legit good alts with actual use cases not doing as well as obvious scam coins is hilarious. It seems everyone thinks they can be a millionaire over night.
 
We may (or may not) see a correction at 10,000 and should see one in early January when people sell to pay their taxes. After that, I expect prices to keep going up. A lot of institutional support is coming.
 

Xisiqomelir

Member
BTC is and always has been a currency. Any trade in BTC is a forex trade.

I'm not surprised people are getting skinned treating it as an asset class.
 

gatti-man

Member
The majority of investment is not to hide illicit activity. Bitcoin is rather traceable with a modicum of effort.



It's a real problem. Thankfully, Proof of Work isn't the only option and the problem is being worked on extensively. One such alternative could be Proof of Stake:

https://medium.com/@VitalikButerin/a-proof-of-stake-design-philosophy-506585978d51



You cash out by selling on an exchange which uses a bid/ask system just like anything else.



You would easily be able to sell your BTC at any point within a few dollars of the current "price" and do so instantly by accepting an ask.

Also, most exchanges are absolutely regulated and US exchanges even follow arcane banking regulations such as Know Your Customer.

https://support.coinbase.com/customer/en/portal/articles/2689172-is-coinbase-regulated-

Coinbase is not regulated lol. Read your own link. Nothing in that says if Coinbase closes your money doesn't disapppear. Because it will. Coinbase is the biggest exchange and no it's not like a bank what so ever. Those are insured by FDIC.

Your post is exactly what I'm talking about. There is a real false sense of security around BTC that is absolutely misplaced.

Also you're wrong about BTC and illicit activity. I said the majority of transactions as in real transactions are for illicit activity. That's a simple googlable fact.
https://www.deepdotweb.com/2017/11/...-bitcoin-money-laundering-darknet-drug-trade/

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/5gq3ga/bitcoin-testimonials-black-market-dispatches

BTC is and always has been a currency. Any trade in BTC is a forex trade.

I'm not surprised people are getting skinned treating it as an asset class.

For it to be a real currency it would need to be regulated and backed by something. BTC isn't an asset either but it's closer to that. I refer to it as a commodity.
 

gatti-man

Member
Don't stress too much. I only got in last month and have already made 100% and cashed out my initial investment.

You'd have to be incredibly bad with money to lose money on crypto.

I do enjoy watching old dinosaur investors shaking their fists at "those damn kids" though. Just accept you missed out on a tonne of money because you got it wrong.

Eh there are risks like that in the stock market too. I could have quadrupled my money in HMNY in a week a few weeks back but I didn’t believe in the company so I stayed out. Gambling isn’t the same thing as investing. Don’t feel bad about HMNY don’t feel bad about BTC and many many people are going to get crushed by it. Those old timers won’t be bothered because they won’t be in it.
 

Slayer-33

Liverpool-2
Eh there are risks like that in the stock market too. I could have quadrupled my money in HMNY in a week a few weeks back but I didn’t believe in the company so I stayed out. Gambling isn’t the same thing as investing. Don’t feel bad about HMNY don’t feel bad about BTC and many many people are going to get crushed by it. Those old timers won’t be bothered because they won’t be in it.

How is this gambling, you are buying a digital piece of technology, why not treat it like a stock? Not all coins are the same.

Shit coins exist just like shit penny stocks
 

iamblades

Member
Could the bubble burst seriously affect those of us who simply stayed away?

No

As an asset class, the entire cryptocurrency market is a rounding error compared to the total economy.

It has at least two orders of magnitudes worth of growth left before it is on the same level as the precious metals market, which still wouldn't have huge effects on the rest of the economy.

How is this gambling, you are buying a digital piece of technology, why not treat it like a stock? Not all coins are the same.

Shit coins exist just like shit penny stocks

Because a stock (in theory) returns a yield in it's own denomination. The vast majority of cryptocurrencies don't. This is the definition of investment vs speculation.
 

Atrus

Gold Member
Like a lot of schemes, it benefits early adopters who then cash out near the peak. Once the FOMO crowd adopts it, the scheme undergoes massive growth, more scrutiny and then collapses quite dramatically. Happens time and again.

Its not an investment as it is speculation. Like Gold, it requires all of those virtuous 'good' guys who will give you this magical store of economic value and growth for your icky and nasty $USD, $Euro, etc.
 

Aintitcool

Banned
Honestly. If you can afford to buy 10k of bitcoin, do it. Sell it in 6 months and enjoy that small boost to your finances.

Anything less and more is risks that are not fun losing or winning with.
 

LordOfChaos

Member
Ethereums Proof of Stake is set to solve the energy consumption problem, and meanwhile other developments will bring its transaction capability up to Visa levels. I'm quite excited about it.

Bitcoin, we'll see, the core devs are slow AF in comparison.




I'm a millennial and I do hold both (and litecoin and several alts), but it's my shit around money, my real investments are in index funds and crypto is well under 10% of it. I just assume it's already lost as my risky potential hyper growth fund. It's not going to ruin me because I'm not stupid about it, if it does continue to rocket to the moon it's a great bonus though.
 

gatti-man

Member
How is this gambling, you are buying a digital piece of technology, why not treat it like a stock? Not all coins are the same.

Shit coins exist just like shit penny stocks

A stock is ownership in a company. Bitcoin and the like are ownership in essentially a stream of code. Companies actually exist and have asssets/revenues things that allow for valuation. BTC and the like are at best a commodity never a stock. And I'd argue they are all more or less the same just with varying degrees of arbitrary popularity.

Could the bubble burst seriously affect those of us who simply stayed away?

Absolutely. Imagine an economy where the savings of a large subset of people suddenly evaporated. House sales, auto sales, business investment, retirement, tons of things could affect the overall economy.

Ethereums Proof of Stake is set to solve the energy consumption problem, and meanwhile other developments will bring its transaction capability up to Visa levels. I'm quite excited about it.

Bitcoin, we'll see, the core devs are slow AF in comparison.




I'm a millennial and I do hold both (and litecoin and several alts), but it's my shit around money, my real investments are in index funds and crypto is well under 10% of it. I just assume it's already lost as my risky potential hyper growth fund. It's not going to ruin me because I'm not stupid about it, if it does continue to rocket to the moon it's a great bonus though.

And yet etherium is worth much less. The energy consumption problem will most likely never be solved in a world where btc and crypto actually takes off and is used. Which is one of the big things against it. There is no time line I see where crypto is actually a real thing used for legal transactions normally.
 

LordOfChaos

Member
And yet etherium is worth much less. The energy consumption problem will most likely never be solved in a world where btc and crypto actually takes off and is used. Which is one of the big things against it. There is no time line I see where crypto is actually a real thing used for legal transactions normally.

It's also up 2000% this year. The price of one coin doesn't matter, the growth does, I don't understand why anyone thinks otherwise. 500 dollars * 200 is more than 500 dollars * 50, whether the latter was a coin worth 10x more or not.

It's trading for less because bitcoin is to crypto what Kleenex is to napkins, but as people find alternatives it's firmly second in line. You should look into PoS more on the second line, when you do a Visa or debit transaction that doesn't cost zero energy either, and PoS, Casper, and a bunch of other eth innovations should make it comparable. You seem to have concluded the energy use is an unsolvable problem without looking into what development work is being done here.


People have been saying for 8 years this whole thing would implode, it may, I don't deny that. But I've been quite content watching my magic internet money multiply for now. Not risk tolerant, don't get in. Want big gains, need some risk. It's that simple. Don't put in everything because that's stupid, but like I said, as your hyper risky fund that you assume you've already lost, it's been quite ok.
 
Nothing stops this train.

I said this in 2016 and i say it now.

In 2018/9 it WILL reach ~50k $ and everybody will cry "bubble burst?" upwards and i will say "No".
 

MilkyJoe

Member
One thing I don't get.

Lets say I bought bit coin at $100. And now its at $8000.

How the fuck do you cash out? Is someone buying $8000 of bitcoin? Sorry, super naive about the subject.

Ding ding ding ding...

This is what I am trying to explain to people.
 

LordOfChaos

Member
One thing I don't get.

Lets say I bought bit coin at $100. And now its at $8000.

How the fuck do you cash out? Is someone buying $8000 of bitcoin? Sorry, super naive about the subject.


Transfer it into an exchange and sell. That easy.

It's worth 8000 because people are buying at 8000. You don't have to worry about finding the buyer, the same as a stock. People have cashed out a LOT more at once. Like, Tesla Model S cashout, houses, probably more.



If it's trading at X, you press a button to sell at X, there's no issue there. It's price reflects what the market is buying at, so there's never a miscommunication in selling. You can sell Apple at 173 because people buy at 173. Same idea.

Ding ding ding ding...

This is what I am trying to explain to people.

Which is?
 

gohepcat

Banned
It will be a problem for all the people who are on this forum crying "It will never burst!"

I see it as a very risky bet, so like all risky bets, I use money that I can absolutely afford to lose. Yes I will be sad to see that number drop, but I won't be ruined.

People have been stupid investors before Bitcoin. They will be stupid after Bitcoin.
 
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