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[firehawk12]

A meaningful third party in a parliamentary system isn't really pointless. They have been able to help set the terms for public debate on policy.

It'll be at least a decade before the inevitable Liberal scandals start appearing and we have an election where the government might change, but until then, I really don't know what the NDP offer. The Tories are the default "the Liberals are corrupt; we can stop government overspending" people, so what do the NDP have now especially when they're afraid of being too left-leaning?

I saw this video with Nathan Cullen today where he addresses the topic of getting really close, but failing. It might not cheer you up, but I liked his optimistic tone.

https://www.facebook.com/AlthiaRaj/v...5626483785329/

Essentially Cullen compares the loss to getting to the Stanley Cup finals and losing. Continuing this analogy the significant thing for the NDP is that in previous elections they got to the first round and lost, and never dreamed of or really planned on getting to the finals let alone winning. Now the NDP know that they can potentially win. They also know that, from the success of the Liberals this last election, that a large majority of Canadians share progressive values that the NDP have always supported.

Or maybe the NDP are like the Leafs. They bought their way in to a deep playoff run and now incompetent mismanagement and the realities of the rest of the league means that they'll never make the playoffs ever again.

Spoiler

Leafs suck! lol

 

[matthewwhatever]

I don't think the CPC leader matters that much for who the NDP pick (they need to win back Liberal switchers before they even think about fighting the CPC), but I do think picking after we find out what (if any) electoral reform gets chosen would have been better. I think the latter will have a much more significant effect on the next election.

Looks like we'll both get our wishes: he's sticking around for 24 months, by which time we'll definitely know the next CPC leader (which I think is important, since even if they're not directly competing for a lot of votes, it still plays a big role in setting the terms of the debate -- i.e. they'd respond to Kevin O'Leary a lot differently than they'd respond to Peter Mackay or Lisa Raitt), and we should know what electoral reforms are going to be implemented.

For most of its history, the NDP has been more about moving the Overton Window of Canadian politics leftward than contending for power, and has done that with a fair degree of success. It can still do that.

I'd never heard of the Overton Window concept before now, but...yep. Even if I may not want an NDP government, I still want them pulling things leftward.

Idiot party. The only two people I would care to see become leader are Cullen or Leslie.

Leslie is great, but probably not realistic for all the reasons Sean listed. She's also apparently said she wants to take time off politics for awhile, so she may sit this one out. Same could be said for Paul Dewar, right down to the unilingual part (which is astounding, seeing as his mother was mayor of Ottawa and he grew up here).

I think Cullen would've been the perfect candidate for them to pick in 2012. He'd have carried on Layton's Happy Warrior legacy, and he'd have contrasted with Harper the same way that Trudeau did, only he'd have gotten there a year earlier. He also would've put a lot of pressure on the Liberals to merge as the cooperation candidate. Even if Trudeau was opposed, I think having someone like Cullen as Opposition Leader pushing for the parties to get together to unseat Harper would've gone over pretty well. Now, though? I don't know that his pitch would be as effective against Trudeau. He's a bright guy and a good speaker, but I think he missed his chance.

Looking at their caucus, I'm not sure if they have anyone there who fits. I think Niki Ashton runs for sure, and I know some diehard NDPers who are extremely high on her, though I find her to be an incredibly dull speaker. I think Alexandre Boulerice runs too, though I can't imagine his separatist past will help him much. Beyond them...maybe Daniel Blaikie? He's young and inexperienced, but he's got a good pedigree, he seems to be a decent speaker judging from YouTube, and if they're taking a long view and really want to rebuild the party, he'd be able to stick around for awhile.

Thinking outside the box a little, if they're going to be running on the Leap Manifesto, maybe one of its authors will step up and enter parliamentary politics. Avi Lewis has certainly been all over the news the last few days, and the fact a CBC story talked about him as leader (even if it was for him to say he had no interest at this time) suggests he's at least thought about it. I don't know if he speaks any French (and personally, I find him super-grating), but if they want to go for someone comfortable on TV who has no problem with what's in the Leap Manifesto, he'd be an interesting candidate.

 

[Walpurgis]

Blaikie would be awesome but this riding can be dangerous. It would be epic to have the party leader as my MP though.

 

[gabbo]

Leslie is great, but probably not realistic for all the reasons Sean listed. She's also apparently said she wants to take time off politics for awhile, so she may sit this one out. Same could be said for Paul Dewar, right down to the unilingual part (which is astounding, seeing as his mother was mayor of Ottawa and he grew up here).

I think Cullen would've been the perfect candidate for them to pick in 2012. He'd have carried on Layton's Happy Warrior legacy, and he'd have contrasted with Harper the same way that Trudeau did, only he'd have gotten there a year earlier. He also would've put a lot of pressure on the Liberals to merge as the cooperation candidate. Even if Trudeau was opposed, I think having someone like Cullen as Opposition Leader pushing for the parties to get together to unseat Harper would've gone over pretty well. Now, though? I don't know that his pitch would be as effective against Trudeau. He's a bright guy and a good speaker, but I think he missed his chance.

Looking at their caucus, I'm not sure if they have anyone there who fits. I think Niki Ashton runs for sure, and I know some diehard NDPers who are extremely high on her, though I find her to be an incredibly dull speaker. I think Alexandre Boulerice runs too, though I can't imagine his separatist past will help him much. Beyond them...maybe Daniel Blaikie? He's young and inexperienced, but he's got a good pedigree, he seems to be a decent speaker judging from YouTube, and if they're taking a long view and really want to rebuild the party, he'd be able to stick around for awhile.

Thinking outside the box a little, if they're going to be running on the Leap Manifesto, maybe one of its authors will step up and enter parliamentary politics. Avi Lewis has certainly been all over the news the last few days, and the fact a CBC story talked about him as leader (even if it was for him to say he had no interest at this time) suggests he's at least thought about it. I don't know if he speaks any French (and personally, I find him super-grating), but if they want to go for someone comfortable on TV who has no problem with what's in the Leap Manifesto, he'd be an interesting candidate.

I don't know how Charlie Angus would do as a leader, but he's one of their best

 

[Sean C]

It'll be at least a decade before the inevitable Liberal scandals start appearing and we have an election where the government might change, but until then, I really don't know what the NDP offer. The Tories are the default "the Liberals are corrupt; we can stop government overspending" people, so what do the NDP have now especially when they're afraid of being too left-leaning?

Did you miss the part where they're debating endorsing the Leap Manifesto?

Thinking outside the box a little, if they're going to be running on the Leap Manifesto, maybe one of its authors will step up and enter parliamentary politics. Avi Lewis has certainly been all over the news the last few days, and the fact a CBC story talked about him as leader (even if it was for him to say he had no interest at this time) suggests he's at least thought about it. I don't know if he speaks any French (and personally, I find him super-grating), but if they want to go for someone comfortable on TV who has no problem with what's in the Leap Manifesto, he'd be an interesting candidate.

Well, if Avi Lewis were to be elected leader of the NDP we'd just need to scrounge up a descendent of Robert Stanfield to lead the Conservatives and the 2010s' mimicry of the 1970s would be completed.

 

[maharg]

Leslie is a very good politician and well-liked, but I'm dubious that it makes sense for the NDP to elect as leader somebody who lacks a seat in Parliament. They'd have to have one of their incumbents step aside and hold a by-election somewhere else in the country (since Leslie's an Anglophone, probably in one of their southern Ontario seats, or Vancouver Island), and, well, I'm not sure that's something the NDP would really want to do at this point. They don't really have much in the way of safe seats at this point that could take a parachute candidate of that nature.

Well, I don't think this is that big of a deal -- especially with Mulcair staying on as interim leader for longer than is usual in this sort of situation. One of the things people are generally positive on Mulcair for is his presence in the House, so they wouldn't be stuck with a limp rag leading them in the house while a leader with no seat built up for a run in the house either in the next election or before, Layton-style.

I'm glad they're not picking a separate interim leader. I think this is something that always causes problems and I'm surprised it happens so often. The Liberals, for example, would have done so much better coming out of Ignatieff without the Will-He-Won't-He of Bob Rae running, imo. Having an interim leader who almost certainly won't run again any time soon is a good thing, and the most obvious candidate for that is often the leader who just lost.

 

[Sean C]

I'm glad they're not picking a separate interim leader. I think this is something that always causes problems and I'm surprised it happens so often. The Liberals, for example, would have done so much better coming out of Ignatieff without the Will-He-Won't-He of Bob Rae running, imo. Having an interim leader who almost certainly won't run again any time soon is a good thing, and the most obvious candidate for that is often the leader who just lost.

Having an interim leader rarely ever causes problems. Rae flirted with running at one point, but on the whole his tenure was widely praised and he got the ball rolling on a lot of the renewal work done.

 

[Walpurgis]

Well, I don't think this is that big of a deal -- especially with Mulcair staying on as interim leader for longer than is usual in this sort of situation. One of the things people are generally positive on Mulcair for is his presence in the House, so they wouldn't be stuck with a limp rag leading them in the house while a leader with no seat built up for a run in the house either in the next election or before, Layton-style.

I'm glad they're not picking a separate interim leader. I think this is something that always causes problems and I'm surprised it happens so often. The Liberals, for example, would have done so much better coming out of Ignatieff without the Will-He-Won't-He of Bob Rae running, imo. Having an interim leader who almost certainly won't run again any time soon is a good thing, and the most obvious candidate for that is often the leader who just lost.

I think interim leaders make sense in some cases. If Harper stayed on as party leader, that be bad for the Cons after their evil campaign. Mulcair, on the other hand, didn't piss anyone off and just quietly failed. No one (other than gutter) minds him sticking around until a new leader is decided on.

 

[firehawk12]

Did you miss the part where they're debating endorsing the Leap Manifesto?

I'm sort of done with the environmental left. Ever since Suzuki called Trudeau an idiot or whatever it was back during the campaign. lol

Then again, they've lost most of the social left issues to the Liberals, so I guess they have no choice. (Still waiting for nationalized day care from someone)

 

[gutter_trash]

besides the salary and the need to pay off debts, I don't get why Mulcair is sticking around,
no other Federal leader has ever had such a harsh leadership review at convention than he did, he made history today of getting the worst federal leader review.

as for the Leap Manifesto, dreamers must comes to grips that Alberta is Alberta and that the oil, gas industry is here to stay. Wishing it away is one thing but the reality is that it is a big industry that is tied to the economy to three Provinces

 

[Holmes]

I don't know how Charlie Angus would do as a leader, but he's one of their best

That's my MP. He's polarizing here but great. Lack of French skills may be a determining factor though.

 

[firehawk12]

besides the salary and the need to pay off debts, I don't get why Mulcair is sticking around,
no other Federal leader has ever had such a harsh leadership review at convention than he did, he made history today of getting the worst federal leader review.

as for the Leap Manifesto, dreamers must comes to grips that Alberta is Alberta and that the oil, gas industry is here to stay. Wishing it away is one thing but the reality is that it is a big industry that is tied to the economy to three Provinces

To be fair, the market solved that problem temporarily at least. Surely Alberta must know that tying your entire economy to the oil industry is a recipe for disaster... much like Ontario learned when the manufacturing sectors were completely gutted.

 

[SRG01]

To be fair, the market solved that problem temporarily at least. Surely Alberta must know that tying your entire economy to the oil industry is a recipe for disaster... much like Ontario learned when the manufacturing sectors were completely gutted.

To be fair though, many of these problems are further exacerbated by WCS being priced significantly lower than WTI/Brent. Getting bitumen out east will ease the shocks from shale producers, if the NDP manage to get Alberta's financial house in order.

 

[thelongestj]

I just watched the Stephen Lewis video on CBC. After being so disappointed with the NDP for moving to the right during the election, it was nice to see a return to the left. Now that the LEAP manifesto is adopted, it makes me excited for the future of the party.

EDIT: Just read not adopted, but will be recognized and supported and debated. Okay well it's still progress.

 

[Tapejara]

Eleven First Nations people attempted suicide on Saturday

An indigenous community in northern Canada has declared a state of emergency after 11 people attempted to take their own lives in one day.

The Attawapiskat First Nation in Ontario saw 28 suicide attempts in March and more than 100 since last September, Canadian media said, with one person is reported to have died.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called the news "heartbreaking".

Canada's 1.4 million indigenous people have high levels of poverty.

Their life expectancy is also below the Canadian average.

Canadian Attawapiskat First Nation suicide emergency - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36012578

 

[Sean C]

besides the salary and the need to pay off debts, I don't get why Mulcair is sticking around,

It makes sense for him to remain leader (and I don't believe third-party leaders get more money; if you mean why he's staying as an MP, I'd say the reason is pretty obvious: the NDP would lose Outremont if he stepped down now). It's been determined he's not going to lead them into the next election; the interim leader for the next two years will mainly be focused on question period-type stuff, which is what he's good at.

 

[Kifimbo]

Eleven First Nations people attempted suicide on Saturday

Canadian Attawapiskat First Nation suicide emergency - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36012578

Am I reading that right ? One death in about 100 attempts ? This is...weird to say the least.

 

[Sean C]

In terms of potential NDP leadership contenders, one name I've been mulling: Ruth Ellen Brosseau.

She's bilingual, she's got a great biographical narrative, and the performance reviews she's gotten for her work as an MP have been pretty much universally laudatory. Her age is the only real potential drawback (she'd be 35 as of the 2019 election), but if the party is more focused on energetically presenting its ideological case than pursuing power, maybe that doesn't matter so much? And there are similarly young people in the mix (e.g., Niki Ashton, who was even younger than Brosseau is when she ran in 2011).

 

[Apathy]

In terms of potential NDP leadership contenders, one name I've been mulling: Ruth Ellen Brosseau.

She's bilingual, she's got a great biographical narrative, and the performance reviews she's gotten for her work as an MP have been pretty much universally laudatory. Her age is the only real potential drawback (she'd be 35 as of the 2019 election), but if the party is more focused on energetically presenting its ideological case than pursuing power, maybe that doesn't matter so much? And there are similarly young people in the mix (e.g., Niki Ashton, who was even younger than Brosseau is when she ran in 2011).

100% with you here in brosseau. She really worked hard for her riding, having to go learn French and getting over the stupid "Vegas girl" name the media gave her. Her constituents love her and reelected her even after the orange wave died because they saw the effort she put in.

For me, I would like to see her or Nikki Ashton run and be leader (either one). Young blood in the party leadership position and capable women.

 

[Sean C]

Also, if the whole Leap Manifesto thing happens, Linda Duncan is toast in the next federal election (if she runs again).

 

[gutter_trash]

It makes sense for him to remain leader (and I don't believe third-party leaders get more money; if you mean why he's staying as an MP, I'd say the reason is pretty obvious: the NDP would lose Outremont if he stepped down now). It's been determined he's not going to lead them into the next election; the interim leader for the next two years will mainly be focused on question period-type stuff, which is what he's good at.

if they really want a transitional Party identity re-adjustment, they are better off picking an interim leader who embodies an average NDP face than sticking with the face of loserdom

Ruth Ellen Brosseau would not be a good pick because she was a lamp post candidate in 2011 who did not expect to win.

Niki Ashton is more ideologically in belief with her motivations of running as an MP than 90% of the Quebec MPs who ran as lamp posts who end up winning in 2011 out of surprise

 

[maharg]

besides the salary and the need to pay off debts, I don't get why Mulcair is sticking around,

I love how this "Mulcair is a mercenary!" narrative you have in your weird head is based on him *turning down* more money and the fact that he's taken out mortgages when interest rates are at historic low levels, as many many people have done.

Never mind that he's already entitled to a pretty hefty pension for his time in parliament, afaik, let alone whatever he gets from his time as a MNA and Quebec cabinet member. He probably doesn't have to work another day in his life if he doesn't want to.

To be fair, the market solved that problem temporarily at least. Surely Alberta must know that tying your entire economy to the oil industry is a recipe for disaster... much like Ontario learned when the manufacturing sectors were completely gutted.

Alberta does know that, but it doesn't mean the province is eager to lose even more jobs when we're already in a recession due to factors outside our control. I think the Alberta NDP is interested in diversifying, just not tanking one of the bigger economic sectors of the province to do it.

That said this could really be pretty schismatic for the NDP, and I'm not really sure where that will wind up.

 

[gutter_trash]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...s-him-to-collect-full-pension-at-55-1.3095572

Under new pension rules for MPs passed in 2013, all politicians elected for the first time in the next election must wait until age 65 before they can draw a pension.

Thomas Mulcair age = 61 years, October 24

So if I were Trudeau, I would call for an election a few weeks before Mulcair's 65th birthday hahahaha

 

[maharg]

If you were Trudeau, Trudeau would never have won the election.

 

[Silver Arrows]

If you were Trudeau, Trudeau would never have won the election.

welcome to arguing with gutter

 

[maharg]

Oh I've been doing that for a long time. It's like a skeet shooting, it can be cathartic.

Thankfully he's basically a LINO and Trudeau would probably want nothing to do with him.

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-...s-him-to-collect-full-pension-at-55-1.3095572



Thomas Mulcair age = 61 years, October 24

So if I were Trudeau, I would call for an election a few week before Mulcair's 65th birthday hahahaha

Maybe you don't know much about Canadian politics or Tom Muclair, but he's been an MP since 2007. Or maybe you're just not good at dates, so I'll help you out - that was before 2013.

 

[matthewwhatever]

Well, if Avi Lewis were to be elected leader of the NDP we'd just need to scrounge up a descendent of Robert Stanfield to lead the Conservatives and the 2010s' mimicry of the 1970s would be completed.

Catherine Clark for CPC leader!

It makes sense for him to remain leader (and I don't believe third-party leaders get more money; if you mean why he's staying as an MP, I'd say the reason is pretty obvious: the NDP would lose Outremont if he stepped down now). It's been determined he's not going to lead them into the next election; the interim leader for the next two years will mainly be focused on question period-type stuff, which is what he's good at.

Leaders of officially recognized parties get an extra $58k. I doubt he's sticking around just for that, though.

Well, I don't think this is that big of a deal -- especially with Mulcair staying on as interim leader for longer than is usual in this sort of situation. One of the things people are generally positive on Mulcair for is his presence in the House, so they wouldn't be stuck with a limp rag leading them in the house while a leader with no seat built up for a run in the house either in the next election or before, Layton-style.

I'm glad they're not picking a separate interim leader. I think this is something that always causes problems and I'm surprised it happens so often. The Liberals, for example, would have done so much better coming out of Ignatieff without the Will-He-Won't-He of Bob Rae running, imo. Having an interim leader who almost certainly won't run again any time soon is a good thing, and the most obvious candidate for that is often the leader who just lost.

The Liberals didn't really have a choice, though. Iggy lost his seat, so having him stay as interim leader until they picked a replacement would've meant having no leader in the House. I know that would've been entirely with the rules, but it wouldn't have made a lot of sense. Rae tip-toeing around the question of whether he'd run again was a little annoying to watch, but it obviously didn't hurt them in the long run -- as Sean notes, he started the party on the path to rebuilding, plus he was strong enough in Question Period and had enough of a media presence that he kept them relevant (no easy thing to do when you're leading the third party).

Since Mulcair is still in the House, it makes sense to keep him as interim leader. He has some credibility there, and anyone else who'd be a viable choice would probably want to keep their options open in terms of making a run for the permanent job.

 

[Sean C]

Ruth Ellen Brosseau would not be a good pick because she was a lamp post candidate in 2011 who did not expect to win.

Why does that make her a bad pick? That's a great narrative -- average Jane becomes successful parliamentarian and proves all the (justified) doubters wrong.

 

[gutter_trash]

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/04/10/writing-was-on-the-wall-for-mulcair-hbert.html
Chantal Hébert opinion piece on the Toronto Star,

she does a good job explaining to readers the differences inside the party that we outside might not get

They already tried to be Liberal-lite in 2015 and it did not work out for them, I have a feeling that they are going to swing Hard Left and try to imitate Bernie Sanders

 

[Kifimbo]

Why does that make her a bad pick? That's a great narrative -- average Jane becomes successful parliamentarian and proves all the (justified) doubters wrong.

She improved tremendously, but she is still far from ready to be the leader of a party.

 

[maharg]

Rae tip-toeing around the question of whether he'd run again was a little annoying to watch, but it obviously didn't hurt them in the long run

I think this is an inside-ball perspective on things. I definitely think it hurt them, though obviously they did recover. I just think in spite of Rae and not because of. In the end his main contribution to me looks like that he eventually decided not to run and that cleared the way for Trudeau, but that's kind of like giving a kid a cookie for not hitting someone.

A lot of the time in conversations with you I feel like where we differ is in the importance of optics. If he did useful stuff inside the party to end the sectarian bullshit that tore it apart, that's cool, but on the outside we don't see that. All we saw was a legacy Liberal taking a ceremonial position and then threatening to turn it into an advantage for the real thing. It looked like a mess from the outside and very much continued the narrative of internal bullshit crippling the party that dominated the last 15 years of the Liberal Party.

She improved tremendously, but she is still far from ready to be the leader of a party.

The potential problem with going for a 'young and fresh' leader right now is that it risks a Kim Campbell/ "cleaning up the mess" situation. Choosing a woman is great, but not if it's just because all the people with real experience who could be running (many of whom would also be women) are sitting it out and waiting for her to fail.

And the long timeline to the actual leadership convention means there won't be much time for the new leader to be in the house as leader to gain experience for the next election.

 

[Walpurgis]

Eleven First Nations people attempted suicide on Saturday



Canadian Attawapiskat First Nation suicide emergency - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-36012578

Oh my god. This has been happening in a bunch of different places. What in the world is going on?

 

[maharg]

Oh my god. This has been happening in a bunch of different places. What in the world is going on?

Decades upon decades of neglect, from politicians of all stripes, capped off with the particularly awful neglect of the CPC for 10 years. It's not rocket science, and I think it's important that we all recognize that our ignorance has enabled it to happen.

 

[Walpurgis]

Decades upon decades of neglect, from politicians of all stripes, capped off with the particularly awful neglect of the CPC for 10 years. It's not rocket science, and I think it's important that we all recognize that our ignorance has enabled it to happen.

I know that the living conditions are bad and the history even worse but I don't understand what is causing this rash of suicide attempts in the past few months. I would think the ousting of Harper would make people at least cautiously optimistic.

 

[maharg]

I know that the living conditions are bad and the history even worse but I don't understand what is causing this rash of suicide attempts in the past few months. I would think the ousting of Harper would make people at least cautiously optimistic.

This is why I pointed out the neglect comes from all stripes of politics. A happy new face in Ottawa has never really done them much good before, I don't know why they'd think it will this time. It's actually a kind of privilege to have hope because of a change in guard.

I mean, keep in mind that when Harper took power he actually said a lot of very good things about federal-indigenous relations, including apologizing for the residential schools, which was huge. But talking and doing are very different things. I think Trudeau will do *better*, but it remains to be seen by how much.

This particular reserve is the one that's been in the news a lot over the last few years, iirc. It is in particularly dire straights. Until things *actually* improve for them the politics of why are not relevant to them.

 

[Kifimbo]

Welp, the Liberals lied about that Saudi Arabia arms deal.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...to-saudis-in-april-documents/article29612233/

Foreign Affairs Minister Stéphane Dion quietly granted Ottawa’s crucial approval for a controversial $15-billion shipment of armoured combat vehicles to Saudi Arabia in early April – even though the Liberals insisted they could not interfere with a “done deal” clinched under the Harper government.

 

[Stumpokapow]

As part of my research into last summer's "foreign voting" debate (restrictions against Canadians who have been living abroad for over 5 years being enforced thanks to an appeals court ruling, then subsequent efforts by Poilievre and other turds to crack down on foreign voting practices, then a significant amount of public debate culminating in editorial pieces in the Globe and National Post as well as op-eds, especially one popular one from Donald Sutherland), I requested detailed foreign voter data from elections Canada last fall. I got it today.

6 months is not the worst turnaround time I've had from a government agency, but I recently did work with an electoral office in another small country and they responded much much faster even during a nation-wide referendum and even though the data I requested from them was pre-computer era. If anyone here is considering academic political science at the graduate level, always factor in lag response time when you're retrieving data from the government. LOL.

Currently elections Canada does not report the number of foreign voters. Rather, for each riding they report several groups of "Special Voters". "Group 1" includes three components: Canadian Forces members voting abroad, incarcerated Canadians voting from correctional facilities, and foreign voters. The data I have disaggregates these three groups. This data may be of interest in people studying voting patterns of the incarcerated as well. Obviously for privacy reasons I do not know who these people voted for, and attempts to infer much about who they voted for are subject to ecological inference problems (there is no reason to believe that foreign or incarcerated voters are randomly distributed with respect to ideology or party).

The next step for my work is to ascertain whether and under what conditions it was possible that foreign votes actually materially impacted riding-level results. For example, a riding with a 10 vote margin and 50 international voters could plausibly have been impacted by international voters.

The step after that is to ascertain whether there are higher foreign voter turnouts in ridings according to any pattern--past competitiveness (foreigners vote if they have reason to believe their riding is competitive); party victor; star or high profile candidates.

There's not enough here for a journal article, especially in light of the fact that the theorized conclusion here is a null result--the expected impact of foreign voters is nil and people who were worried about them were shitheels--but if I find interesting results I'll be workshopping at least a Letter to the Editor or Research Memo on the subject. Canada does not have an epidemic of excessive turnout that necessitates action to divide or exclude small groups out of fear. The initial appeals court ruling was misguided, but subject commentary on the subject exposed a gross nativism, nationalism, and bigotry and I think it's important to push back and make it clear that was all affect and nothing grounded in rational problems.

 

[matthewwhatever]

I think this is an inside-ball perspective on things. I definitely think it hurt them, though obviously they did recover. I just think in spite of Rae and not because of. In the end his main contribution to me looks like that he eventually decided not to run and that cleared the way for Trudeau, but that's kind of like giving a kid a cookie for not hitting someone.

A lot of the time in conversations with you I feel like where we differ is in the importance of optics. If he did useful stuff inside the party to end the sectarian bullshit that tore it apart, that's cool, but on the outside we don't see that. All we saw was a legacy Liberal taking a ceremonial position and then threatening to turn it into an advantage for the real thing. It looked like a mess from the outside and very much continued the narrative of internal bullshit crippling the party that dominated the last 15 years of the Liberal Party.

I see where you're coming from and I don't totally disagree: I would've been pretty furious if Rae had reneged and run for permanent leader. But I still think that just his presence saved the Liberals from oblivion post-2011. He kept them relevant in the House of Commons and on TV, he stood against a merger when there were some pretty powerful voices calling for one, and he kept their fundraising relatively stable in the middle of a leadership race when they'd fallen back to third party status in the House. I don't think any of that counts as inside baseball.


Anyway, speaking of third party leaders, did anyone see this story in Vice recapping the NDP convention? It's pretty amazing: Thomas Mulcair Was the First Victim of the Great Schism That’s About to Swallow the NDP

Because all the political machinery in Canada is greased with booze, there were several hospitality suites in Edmonton the first night of the NDP convention. There was a $300-a-ticket reception with Thomas Mulcair at a cocktail lounge overlooking the city's scenic river valley, a few floors above the convention hall where he would be soundly rejected on Sunday. There was an invite-only shindig hosted by the Alberta Federation of Labour and the Canadian Labour Congress at the Citadel Theatre, the hub of Edmonton's fine arts establishment. Elsewhere, several MLAs from the Alberta NDP schmoozed at a downtown drag show to raise money for the party's LGBTQ caucus. And in a dingy hipster bar across the street from a Greyhound bus station, a small cadre of Dipper insurrectionists were getting together to share "Beers For Renewal".

Straining away from each other that night across north Edmonton, these were the four vectors tearing the party apart.

It is no word of a lie that the party collectively spent more time arguing about the Sunday morning timeline than any other single item up for debate in Edmonton this weekend. I'm not even sure the Leap Manifesto generated as much acrimony as whether the leadership vote would be held at 10:30 AM or 11. Almost every time the floor was open, someone would go up to the microphones to argue about the agenda.

It's impossible to say whether Mulcair really had a chance to plead for his job when he got up on stage that morning. If he did, he blew it, because the speech he gave to the party was a steaming pile of shit.

The Edmonton convention kicked the party's fatal self-confrontation a little further down the road. But as delegates spilled out onto Jasper Avenue on Sunday afternoon, they could feel it coming. A house divided against itself cannot stand; it will become all one thing, or all the other. The only question now is which pole of the party is going to find itself shut out in the cold.

There's also an amazing dissection of the speeches by Rachel Notley and Stephen Lewis that needs to be read in full. I have no idea who could bridge the gap between the activists and the more mainstream-minded NDPers, but it's going to be really interesting to watch from the outside.

 

[Sean C]

Nathan Cullen is mulling a run for the NDP leadership. Among the Anglophone MPs I think he's the strongest choice.

 

[gutter_trash]

That Vice article was insightful depicting the mood and divide inside the NDP for the rest of us.

The Leap Manifesto people seem like purists who ignore the Only NDP success story: Rachel Notly and the Alberta NDP

It's not a matter of Left vs Right but more à matter of differences of regional priorities that includes jobs in sectors tied to that region.

Mulcair was a fence sitter who did not want to take sides between the energy sector jobs people and the Leap Manifestations

Being a fence sitter, he lost support from both competing schools of thought

 

[SRG01]

The NDP always had two "main" wings: prairie populists and urban socialists. It's not a surprise that the two sides are in conflict at this point, especially when one side essentially "fell from grace".

 

[Sean C]

The NDP always had two "main" wings: prairie populists and urban socialists. It's not a surprise that the two sides are in conflict at this point, especially when one side essentially "fell from grace".

Prairie populism hasn't been a real force in the NDP for a while -- the only rural prairie ridings they've had for a long time are northern ones full of Aboriginal people.

 

[Pedrito]

Scrap the Saudi arms deal, says Clement

Haha. You can't make this up...

In alternate universe in which arms deal is scrapped:

Liberals destroy another sector of canadian economy, says Clement.

Opposing for the sake of opposing...

 

[Sean C]

Megan Leslie says she's not running for the NDP leadership. That would have been a challenge when she lacked a parliamentary seat, like I said earlier.

 

[gutter_trash]

The NDP always had two "main" wings: prairie populists and urban socialists. It's not a surprise that the two sides are in conflict at this point, especially when one side essentially "fell from grace".

the Leap Manifestations would be better off defecting to the Greens

that's what I call them from now on: Leap Manifestations

 

[SRG01]

Prairie populism hasn't been a real force in the NDP for a while -- the only rural prairie ridings they've had for a long time are northern ones full of Aboriginal people.

Well, the NDP did rule Manitoba for around 10 years, and Saskatchewan before that... But you're right in that their influence has been massively curtailed.

 

[Sean C]

Well, the NDP did rule Manitoba for around 10 years, and Saskatchewan before that... But you're right in that their influence has been massively curtailed.

The provincial wings, yes, but I mean federally (and while notionally the same party, the provincial governments in practice have a pretty marginal connection to the federal).

 

[matthewwhatever]

Megan Leslie says she's not running for the NDP leadership. That would have been a challenge when she lacked a parliamentary seat, like I said earlier.

I was going to say that that story seemed like there could be some wiggle room in there, but then I saw this on CBC: Megan Leslie rules out NDP leadership bid: 'I don't want it'

"I'm tired. My energy has gone. I don't have the passion in me right now for politics," Leslie said. "The NDP deserves a leader who has that passion, who wants it. And I don't want it."

That's about as definitive as you can get!

Cullen said he's leaning towards no, Topp ruled himself out, Notley's spokesperson said she wouldn't be going for it, and now Leslie is out. With no obvious frontrunner, this could be a really interesting race to watch.

 

[Morrigan Stark]

Tories blast Trudeau for not having an offshore shell corporation

xD Love Beaverton