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[OldJadedGamer]

As best as I can tell from he shitty machine transcription, operating income for gaming was flat, even though sales decreased. Also, I'm pretty sure that "Red in the fiscal year" is supposed to be "rest of the fiscal year". And they think they are targeting a different market with PSV than Nintendo is with 3DS. Not especially newsworthy.

The same thing was said from them about the DS when they launched the PSP. Also, surprised that they mention a lack of games and only mention third party since there were 2-3 first party games that were released in the reporting period.

 

[Massa]

The same thing was said from them about the DS when they launched the PSP. Also, surprised that they mention a lack of games and only mention third party since there were 2-3 first party games that were released in the reporting period.

And they were.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

And they think they are targeting a different market with PSV than Nintendo is with 3DS.

I'm not sure what that market is.

 

[AgentChris]

I'm not sure what that market is.

Rich teenagers.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Rich teenagers.

Any of those left?

 

[OldJadedGamer]

And they were.

At first, then they shifted their marketing focus to little kids once they realized the older market wasn't buying the system. That's when we got stuff like the pink Hanna Montana system and Marcus in marketing ads.

"We think there's a lot of opportunity for us to drive the average age younger for the platform," SCEA hardware marketing director John Koller tells Gamasutra. Specifically, the initiative's aiming to expand the PSP further into the 12 to 14 year-old age range.

"We in the last few years have been centered around this 16 year-old range," he explains. "There's various strata in the demographic, but 12-14 seems like it has a lot of opportunity, in terms of software sales and in terms of overall hardware install base."

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/news/28771/Interview_Sonys_Koller_Talks_Trending_Younger_Fighting_Piracy_With_New_PSP_Initiatives.php

 

[RukusProvider]

Rich teenagers.

So a niche within a niche. I expect the Vita sales to be in line with PSP sales. It'll do fine in Japan. The Sony diehards in the West and Europe will pick it up initially and then sales will fall off dramatically.

 

[FieryBalrog]

PS 2

 

[Massa]

At first, then they shifted their marketing focus to little kids once they realized the older market wasn't buying the system. That's when we got stuff like the pink Hanna Montana system and Marcus in marketing ads.

The market was buying the system, PSP sold pretty well. What happens with every Sony platform is that they eventually move their focus from just core gamers to everyone. For example there have been bundles of Lego, Disney and Star Wars games with the PS2 once it reached a similar point in its life.

This is said to be different with the Vita, where they're going for broad audience from the start. With the PS4 that one guy from SCEE hinted at the same thing.

So a niche within a niche. I expect the Vita sales to be in line with PSP sales. It'll do fine in Japan. The Sony diehards in the West and Europe will pick it up initially and then sales will fall off dramatically.

70 million is your prediction then?

 

[Azih]

I seriously cannot fault Stringer for the financial crisis of 2008 or the tsunami in 2011. Plus the PS3 was pretty far in development by the time he came on board and I can't blame him for that either. FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE US DOLLARS and all.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

This is said to be different with the Vita, where they're going for broad audience from the start. With the PS4 that one guy from SCEE hinted at the same thing.

Broad audience from the start? I don't think so as we've seen from the 3DS, $250 hardware and $40 games may be too high for the general consumer right now. Sure, we can all talk "value" till we are blue in the face but sales trends show that consumers care more about initial cost than they do about the value they are getting for the money. But that is a whole other thread...

70 million is your prediction then?

Software numbers never really matched the hardware though for games not named Monster Hunter. I'm not sure how many of those units were just for piracy so it will be interesting to see how well the Vita sells when it's not hacked.

I seriously cannot fault Stringer for the financial crisis of 2008 or the tsunami in 2011. Plus the PS3 was pretty far in development by the time he came on board and I can't blame him for that either. FIVE HUNDRED AND NINETY NINE US DOLLARS and all.

He entered into the company when a lot of things were happening that he couldn't control at the time. He has been putting out fires since he got there and the poor guy has taken the blame for a lot of stuff he shouldn't have.

 

[RukusProvider]

70 million is your prediction then?

Not at all. I'm going by current pace. I believe that after the initial flurry by Sony and handheld loyalists, the sales will fall off dramatically only blipped by price cuts and big bundles. 40mil in 5years would be my most optimistic estimate for sell through.

My take is that the smartphone, itouch and tablet market will eat up the handheld market. Now I'm sure someone will jump in say "well, you can't play a certain game with just touch screen!" And I agree with that but instead, the end user had many other options that they will be able to play. For them, life moves on.

 

[madmaxx350]

Not at all. I'm going by current pace. I believe that after the initial flurry by Sony and handheld loyalists, the sales will fall off dramatically only blipped by price cuts and big bundles. 40mil in 5years would be my most optimistic estimate for sell through.

My take is that the smartphone, itouch and tablet market will eat up the handheld market. Now I'm sure someone will jump in say "well, you can't play a certain game with just touch screen!" And I agree with that but instead, the end user had many other options that they will be able to play. For them, life moves on.

What's your prediction for the 3DS then?

 

[TheRagnCajun]

So a niche within a niche. I expect the Vita sales to be in line with PSP sales. It'll do fine in Japan. The Sony diehards in the West and Europe will pick it up initially and then sales will fall off dramatically.

'rich teenagers' were the ones buying PSP. I'm one of the few on GAF who doesn't think smart phones will bite into handhelds much. Smartphones are for adults, primarily. Handheld gaming devices are for kids and teens, primarily. Granted there's some overlap, but I don't know how noticable those loss of sales are going to be.

Sony has an opportunity to take the ball and run with it. The market is DS-saturated, and not necessarily responding well to 3DS (effect of new pricepoint remains to be seen). Vita is a very attractive upgrade from DS, from a hardware standpoint. Its just a matter if $250 is low enough, this thing might not really take off until its first price cut.

 

[demosthenes]

Broad audience from the start? I don't think so as we've seen from the 3DS, $250 hardware and $40 games may be too high for the general consumer right now. Sure, we can all talk "value" till we are blue in the face but sales trends show that consumers care more about initial cost than they do about the value they are getting for the money. But that is a whole other thread...



Software numbers never really matched the hardware though for games not named Monster Hunter. I'm not sure how many of those units were just for piracy so it will be interesting to see how well the Vita sells when it's not hacked.



He entered into the company when a lot of things were happening that he couldn't control at the time. He has been putting out fires since he got there and the poor guy has taken the blame for a lot of stuff he shouldn't have.

I'm split on what really hurt the 3DS the most.

You have the smart phones, iPod touch, etc but you had those 2 years ago still. Stuff like Angry Birds were out for over a year last Christmas and a ton of other games and the DS still managed 2.5 million in just America in December.

You also have the 3D. I lump parents being worried about 3D (anecdotal evidence: 2 parents here @ work, have 5 kids between them, with all kids owning their own DS. Both parents aren't buying 3DS for their kids b/c they've heard of the eye issue. Kids range from like 4 to 12). Also, the actual 3DS. To some parents I bet they think it's just a DS w/ 3D, so they can get the cheaper model.

Both have hurt the 3DS gain traction.

 

[RukusProvider]

What's your prediction for the 3DS then?

I'd say around 50mil for the same time period. The key difference being Nintendo's ability to generally market really well.

 

[RukusProvider]

'rich teenagers' were the ones buying PSP. I'm one of the few on GAF who doesn't think smart phones will bite into handhelds much. Smartphones are for adults, primarily. Handheld gaming devices are for kids and teens, primarily. Granted there's some overlap, but I don't know how noticable those loss of sales are going to be.

The hand downs is what will hurt sales. The smartphone and tablet market is moving at rapid pace and people are getting into aggressive upgrade cycles (in comparison to consoles and hardweare refresh cycle atleast.) It's becoming quite common for parents to pass down their smartphones and tables to their kids. Similar for siblings.

Please note that my predictions are still 40mil for the Vita and 50mil for the 3DS meaning they will still a decent amount. It's just that they'll be forced to compete with a new and very HOT market whether they like it or not.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I'm split on what really hurt the 3DS the most.

You have the smart phones, iPod touch, etc but you had those 2 years ago still. Stuff like Angry Birds were out for over a year last Christmas and a ton of other games and the DS still managed 2.5 million in just America in December.

You also have the 3D. I lump parents being worried about 3D (anecdotal evidence: 2 parents here @ work, have 5 kids between them, with all kids owning their own DS. Both parents aren't buying 3DS for their kids b/c they've heard of the eye issue. Kids range from like 4 to 12). Also, the actual 3DS. To some parents I bet they think it's just a DS w/ 3D, so they can get the cheaper model.

Both have hurt the 3DS gain traction.

The Vita being released will show which is which. If smart phones really have eaten way too far into the handheld market or the 3DS is just a shitty product. Only time will tell but I bet the thought is keeping some execs at Sony awake at night.

 

[demosthenes]

The Vita being released will show which is which. If smart phones really have eaten way too far into the handheld market or the 3DS is just a shitty product. Only time will tell but I bet the thought is keeping some execs at Sony awake at night.

I'm sure it is!

 

[RukusProvider]

The Vita being released will show which is which. If smart phones really have eaten way too far into the handheld market or the 3DS is just a shitty product. Only time will tell but I bet the thought is keeping some execs at Sony awake at night.

Sony's lack of direction in combining their resources for a true contender that could dominate the smartphone and handheld markets is what should keep them awake. They have the tools and talent. Just no firm direction.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

The hand downs is what will hurt sales. The smartphone and tablet market is moving at rapid pace and people are getting into aggressive upgrade cycles (in comparison to consoles and hardweare refresh cycle atleast.) It's becoming quite common for parents to pass down their smartphones and tables to their kids. Similar for siblings.

Please note that my predictions are still 40mil for the Vita and 50mil for the 3DS meaning they will still a decent amount. It's just that they'll be forced to compete with a new and very HOT market whether they like it or not.

Thats a valid point, but I'd argue the family who can afford to upgrade their iPad every couple years is the family that could afford a Vita if they wanted one.

 

[demosthenes]

Thats a valid point, but I'd argue the family who can afford to upgrade their iPad every couple years is the family that could afford a Vita if they wanted one.

Very good point, Sony needs that software.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Thats a valid point, but I'd argue the family who can afford to upgrade their iPad every couple years is the family that could afford a Vita if they wanted one.

It's not the iPhone or the iPad eating into it as much as the iPod Touch. Also, remember when parents personally upgrade their iPhones and cut off service, it basically becomes an iPod Touch which they can then give to their kids to play with and all the apps bought still work and future apps work for all devices in the house.

If you, your brother, and dad all want to play the same Vita game, you need 3 different versions which means 3 times the price. You can sync multiple iOS devices to one computer.

 

[Johann]

Rich teenagers.

Funny story.

I once met a man during a dental appointment and we ended up making small talk. Lo and behold, he told me he worked at a firm (he quit a few years ago) that was involved with SCEA marketing for the PSP in America. We talked and he shared an anecdote with me about the first few years about marketing campaign and demographics for the PSP. Do you know the most significant demographic for the PSP in North American up until late 2007?

Lower/working-class black males between the ages of 13-25.

Sony had noticed early on that blacks made a significant portion of the PSP userbase. Many of them came from sub-$30,000 income households. In other worlds, these were poor teenagers with poor parents. Anyway, black youths were attracted to the shooters, sports, and racing games on the handheld. In particular, they would go on to become a significant market for the GTA PSP games.

Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories would become a major PSP system-seller for young black males since they have always been a significant demographics for the franchise. Sony got got wind of this and began publishing of their own games involving shooting or gang warfare, such as Gangs of London. Coincidentally, Sony discovered that DS owners were older and substantially wealthier than PSP owners. It's speculation on my part but I think Brain Training had an effect on that.

You might have noticed that a number of Sony's marketing campaigns have targeted the black community, such the PSP 'rap' viral video or the Squirrels speaking ebonics for the Daxter game/nut ad. I was told there were ads in magazines and websites targeted toward blacks. Then, there is the PSP spin-off of the Kevin Bulter ad campaign with Marcus. Of course, it's possible that Marcus is just a coincidence since the PSP demographics have changed since then.

 

[Parmenides]

PS3 sales are up, shipments are down...makes sense.

I have shown you retail sales data (NPD,Media Create,Nintendo) and shipments (aka Sony's sales)

The most recent three months are down 25% and that is the only info that really matters since we are discussing a fiscal year projection.It doesn't actually matter if sales are slightly outpacing shipments this year because the ground they have to make up isn't changed.

-PS3 sales at retail were better than ever during the first half of 2011,but shipments (aka Sony’s sales) dropped sharply during the same period.There are several explanations.For instance:

-Sony oveshipped PS3 during the second half of 2010

-Sony was making room for the new PS3 slim model


Anyway,retail sales during the first half of 2011 were healthy,therefore we know this cannot be the underlying reason.

PS3 10% Ahead of 360 This Year Worldwide

They have to ship 1.3 million more units over the next 9 months than they did the year before.That isn't happening without a price cut

Sony shipped 14.3 million last year,and the PS3 sold better than ever at retail in the first half of 2011 without the help of price drops.Of course we don't know if the PS3 can keep this positive momentum and we don't know anything about the PS3 inventory situation.

especially when sales are declining in the us ...

PS3 Hardware Sales

          NPD 2009     NPD 2010        NPD 2011

Jan        203k          277k           267k

Feb        276k          360k           403k

Mar        218k          314k           365k


Tot        697k          951k           1035k

PS3 Hardware Sales

          NPD 2009     NPD 2010        NPD 2011

Apr        127k          180k           204k

May        131k          154k           177k

Jun        164k          304k           276k


Tot        422k          638k           657k

Still they don't have a chance to sell 15m without a price cut. Their US sales during the holyday season would be tragic, so even if the price cut happens in October ww, it will happen nevertheless.

It's the biggest hurdle.The PS3 usually has had terrible performances in November and December regardless of what happened during the year.However,we should remember that more than 60% of PS3 sales are made outside the U.S or that PS3 sales increased more than 20% in Europe in the first 14 weeks.That's why a price cut is really dubious

On top of that,Sony has stated that Profitability is More Important Than Passing Xbox 360

 

[Loudninja]

Great stuff Parmenides, I always enjoy reading you post.

 

[Ramune]

Funny story.

I once met a man during a dental appointment and we ended up making small talk. Lo and behold, he told me he worked at a firm (he quit a few years ago) that was involved with SCEA marketing for the PSP in America. We talked and he shared an anecdote with me about the first few years about marketing campaign and demographics for the PSP. Do you know the most significant demographic for the PSP in North American up until late 2007?

Lower/working-class black males between the ages of 13-25.

Sony had noticed early on that blacks made a significant portion of the PSP userbase. Many of them came from sub-$30,000 income households. In other worlds, these were poor teenagers with poor parents. Anyway, black youths were attracted to the shooters, sports, and racing games on the handheld. In particular, they would go on to become a significant market for the GTA PSP games.

Grand Theft Auto: Liberty City Stories would become a major PSP system-seller for young black males since they have always been a significant demographics for the franchise. Sony got got wind of this and began publishing of their own games involving shooting or gang warfare, such as Gangs of London. Coincidentally, Sony discovered that DS owners were older and substantially wealthier than PSP owners. It's speculation on my part but I think Brain Training had an effect on that.

You might have noticed that a number of Sony's marketing campaigns have targeted the black community, such the PSP 'rap' viral video or the Squirrels speaking ebonics for the Daxter game/nut ad. I was told there were ads in magazines and websites targeted toward blacks. Then, there is the PSP spin-off of the Kevin Bulter ad campaign with Marcus. Of course, it's possible that Marcus is just a coincidence since the PSP demographics have changed since then.

Funny you mention that fact, because at the grocery store where I worked during that time, served primarily lower income families, it being a grocery warehouse with low prices, and no membership card requirement. I would constantly see kids and teens with PSPs hanging on their necks like medals. I kid you not. Not even playing the darn things, just walking or running around like it's some status symbol. I asked a few if they even play on the thing. "I got my Madden and GTA and I can play my vids." Or "I use it to play my jams, I'll get games later". As a gamer who happens to be Black, all I could do was shake my head at what I was seeing and hearing. Maybe the writing was on the wall as early as then. Heck, I didn't get a PSP until I imported my Ceramic White 1000 and Maverick Hunter X hit the market.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Analysts' estimates are not evidence that retail sales are up, if you have any other actual evidence I'd love to see it.

 

[zomgbbqftw]

US sales may be (just 29k) up YoY, but Japan sales are down and we have no indication on PAL sales other than the Q4 Nintendo slides, there is no evidence that the sales increase carried through to Q1. That Sony have shipped much less than last year indicates they are selling fewer units. To sell 15m they need to sell 1.3m units more than last year over the next 9 months at a price-point that is getting quite stale.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Analysts' estimates are not evidence that retail sales are up, if you have any other actual evidence I'd love to see it.

Yeah, We should keep analysts out of real discussions. The are ok for rumors and slow news days but using them to back up an opinion is reachimg.

 

[BKK]

Retail shipments;

PS2: 152.4m
PSP: 71.4m
PS3: 51.8m

http://www.scei.co.jp/corporate/release/pdf/110817f_e.pdf

 

[Parmenides]

Sony will report financial results for its second quarter of fiscal year 2011 on Wednesday,November 2 so we have to wait a little bit longer.

This is the latest available information according to data published by Nintendo,Sony and Microsoft

LINK: Home Console Hardware Unit Sales in the European Market

LINK: Home Console Hardware Unit Sales in the U.S. Market

LINK: Home Console Hardware Unit Sales in the Japanese Market

(*) EUR: Week 1 to Week 41
US: NPD Jan - Sep (Week 1 to Week 39)
JAP: Media Create, Week 1 to Week 42

"Despite inventory constraints at retail during the first half of August, PS3 hardware sales were very strong the last two weeks of the month following the $50 price cut

LINK: NPD August 2011 Sales Results

This is something we have been planning for a while.Getting to £199 is fantastic in the UK. It’s a real milestone.UK is one of the territories where we have to do better.

Whether you approach the UK from the perspective of our momentum, or the perspective of the competitive landscape, for us the UK is more like US than continental Europe.If you look across the PAL territory, where typically we outsell our competitors by around 50 per cent on a weekly basis, it’s inverted in the UK.That is something we want to address.

History has shown us that once you get to £199 you hit lift off. We can do some serious business and this kick-starts that. Getting to £199 was a defining moment for the PSone and PS2 – this will be no different.

PS2 across our territory went well over 50m units.We’re at 22m on PS3. So there’s lots of life in that still to come.

(August 31, 2011)

LINK: We outsell our competitors by around 50% on a weekly basis in PALand

 

[H_Prestige]

Sounds like business as usual for Sony.

 

[noobie]

Sony will report financial results for its second quarter of fiscal year 2011 on Wednesday,November 2 so we have to wait a little bit longer.

This is the latest available information according to data published by Nintendo,Sony and Microsoft

LINK: Home Console Hardware Unit Sales in the European Market

LINK: Home Console Hardware Unit Sales in the U.S. Market

LINK: Home Console Hardware Unit Sales in the Japanese Market

LINK: NPD August 2011 Sales Results



LINK: We outsell our competitors by around 50% on a weekly basis in PALand

But we didnt get any announcement from SONY Or UK retailers on any "Dramatic" lift of PS3 in UK after pricecut. So i believe its nothing impressive to write or boast about.. just like a minimal lift in US probably..

 

[Carl]

But we didnt get any announcement from SONY Or UK retailers on any "Dramatic" lift of PS3 in UK after pricecut. So i believe its nothing impressive to write or boast about.. just like a minimal lift in US probably..

Nintendo's numbers say otherwise.

 

[DR3AM]

so is the playstation brand making sony any money?

 

[Auto_aim1]

so is the playstation brand making sony any money?

I think they reported a $400 million profit for the PS division last time. I'm not sure about that though, maybe Parminedes can clear that up.

 

[Elios83]

so is the playstation brand making sony any money?

Since Q3 2009 aka after the PS3 Slim launch.

 

[noobie]

Btw any analysis post on expected SONY results.? are we going to see another red quarter..
what were SONY guidelines for this quarter in last quarter??

 

[Psychotext]

so is the playstation brand making sony any money?

Probably at the moment. Impossible to say right now though because of the messed up divisions making the figures meaningless.

 

[jcm]

so is the playstation brand making sony any money?

We know they made ¥46.5 billion operating profit last FY on sales of ¥798.4 billion. And we know the first quarter of this FY was profitable.