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[AgentChris]

Are PS2 games still being printed and/or developed?

Mostly sports titles from EA and SCE.

 

[lunchwithyuzo]

You don't think SEGA killing off support for the Saturn so soon didn't hurt the Dreamcast? I'd say it did. Not only with publishers, but with consumers.

This very thing totally crippled Sega in Japan, which at the time was easily the most important region for developer support. To this day Camelot won't work with Sega over how they handled things with Saturn.

It also soured EA on them so the effects were felt in the west too, even if Saturn wasn't the market success overseas that it was in Japan.

 

[Elios83]

I wouldn't call 40% "quite accurate". They have planned 15 million for last year at $299 and planned 15 million this year. So for a price drop to happen, they have to expect a sales dip for this year and a price drop to bring them back to previous numbers.

I think a $100 drop will put them past the 15 million which makes me think it will only be $50.

They have been really accurate, basically spot on for the past three years.
It's not fair to judge their accuracy based on the first year....many things happened that they did not expect (Blu Ray manufacturing delays and abysmal demand at 599$).

Btw I agree with you that the new forecast points to a new 249$ price announced at Gamescom.
320GB bundles with top first party games will be sold at 299$ during the holyday season and starting with Resistance 3 in September.

 

[soundscream]

wow what an ignorant fanboy comment

LOL

I owned nothing but Sega systems until the end of Dreamcast.

Sega Master System, Genesis, Sega CD, Saturn, and Dreamcast. Never owned a Playstation product till PS3.

Are you honestly going to say that the Saturn was better than the PS1. Aside from a few Saturn games its not even close.

 

[DogWelder]

I wouldn't call 40% "quite accurate". They have planned 15 million for last year at $299 and planned 15 million this year. So for a price drop to happen, they have to expect a sales dip for this year and a price drop to bring them back to previous numbers.

I think a $100 drop will put them past the 15 million which makes me think it will only be $50.

Edit: Err, no never mind, I was thinking 3DS.

 

[Auto_aim1]

For whatever cultural reasons, regarding the games it has or not, etc. What is amazing, is how Japan absolutely embraces the PSP...

Yep, Japan gets a lot of unique PSP games that the other regions don't get. It's too bad the PSP never got that kind of software support in the west.

 

[Manmademan]

LOL

I owned nothing but Sega systems until the end of Dreamcast.

Sega Master System, Genesis, Sega CD, Saturn, and Dreamcast. Never owned a Playstation product till PS3.

Are you honestly going to say that the Saturn was better than the PS1. Aside from a few Saturn games its not even close.

He might have been referring to the Dreamcast comment.

The Dreamcast launch was highly successful. the system itself was a quantum leap over the PS1 and Saturn, and it had a VERY solid lineup of games at a good price point.

HOWEVER

Sony's marketing was just too good to compete with. Coming off of the PS1, everyone was looking forward to the PS2. Add to that that DVDs were exploding in popularity, and it was a huge bonus at the time that the PS2 could play them. For sony the timing was perfect. I even remember random DVDs advertising themselves as "ps2 compatible"(!) to piggyback on the hype.

even with that, the DC might have been able to hang on longer than it did, had it not been incredibly, insanely easy to pirate the hell out of the DC. everyone I knew with a system had a huge stack of burned CDRs with games on them. Sega never had a chance once this became widespread.

 

[gundamkyoukai]

Analysts and financial experts are suggesting Sony to consider leaving the TV business, they have not been profitable with it for 6-7 years and there's no sign they can achieve profitability with it anytime soon. They just can't compete with koreans.

I don't think they will ever do that , OLED TV are next big thing along with glassless 3D TV and they are going to want piece of that pie.
Sony needs to get ahead some way or the other .
I still remember when people were saying they should break up the company , now they are trying to get in to work together better but it still taking to long .

 

[Special J]

lol nvm

 

[soundscream]

He might have been referring to the Dreamcast comment.

The Dreamcast launch was highly successful. the system itself was a quantum leap over the PS1 and Saturn, and it had a VERY solid lineup of games at a good price point.

HOWEVER

Sony's marketing was just too good to compete with. Coming off of the PS1, everyone was looking forward to the PS2. Add to that that DVDs were exploding in popularity, and it was a huge bonus at the time that the PS2 could play them. For sony the timing was perfect. I even remember random DVDs advertising themselves as "ps2 compatible"(!) to piggyback on the hype.

even with that, the DC might have been able to hang on longer than it did, had it not been incredibly, insanely easy to pirate the hell out of the DC. everyone I knew with a system had a huge stack of burned CDRs with games on them. Sega never had a chance once this became widespread.

But wasn't there a shortage of systems after the initial launch? I wasn't talking about the actual games I loved them, it was about the actual process of getting the system out.

 

[Averon]

I don't think they will ever do that , OLED TV are next big thing along with glassless 3D TV and they are going to want piece of that pie.
Sony needs to get ahead some way or the other .

What Sony needs to do is have a budget line of TVs that's feature rich. They can't compete with the cheaper alternatives from likes of Samsung, Vizio, etc...

 

[gundamkyoukai]

What Sony needs to do is have a budget line of TVs that's feature rich. They can't compete with the cheaper alternatives from likes of Samsung, Vizio, etc...

Yep that would be the right answer .

 

[Cygnus X-1]

Se Atene piange, Sparta non ride

Spoiler

If Atene cries, Sparta doesn't laugh

 

[Elios83]

its misleading to give cumulative projections. and even tho in 2010 they only hit 65% of their projection people think its closer than it actually is. (not blaming you but makes me understand why they do it)

2010: 15-13 = 2 million, they sold 14.3 - 13 = 1.3 million so 1.3 mil vs 2 mil is a bad projection (selling 65% of what they projected)
2009: good
2007: 11-3.5=7.5, they sold 9.1 - 3.5=5.6. So 7.5 projected but actual 5.6 sold

I don't get what calculations you're making. I stated their forecasts for each fiscal year and the actual sales they made for each year. Seems the right way to judge their accuracy to me.

 

[Special J]

I don't get what calculations you're making. I stated their forecasts for each fiscal year and the actual sales they made for each year. Seems the right way to judge their accuracy to me.

me either. nvm

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I don't get what calculations you're making. I stated their forecasts for each fiscal year and the actual sales they made for each year. Seems the right way to judge their accuracy to me.

Yeah, those measurements make no sense.

 

[jcm]

Howard Stringer's six years at Sony:

Why is he still in charge?

 

[Kagari]

Gamescom is around the corner (less than a month to go). But as I said earlier in the thread imo you're wrong in expecting 199$ this year.
I've always believed in the importance of the 199$ price point for the PS3 and I thought it would happen this year too.
But clearly it won't. Their forecast is absolutely perfect, spot on for the 249$ entry price, the new price with bundles and more games will definetly provide the boost they need to reach 15m which is not that much, they sold 14.3m in the second year at 299$.
If they targeted a 199$ price they would expect much bigger numbers, like 17m or even 18m.

I disagree. I don't think a $50 will have any real impact, and with sales already down, $199 makes the most sense. It's been 2 years since the last $100 price cut, so, in the US specifically, I think, the $299 price point has really reached saturation.

 

[Satchel]

So during the PS3's current 5 years on the market (a normal console cycle) the PS3 has sold only a bit over the PS2 in that same period?

Fuck me, I can't tell if that's bad for the PS3 or amazing for the PS2.

I'm inclined to think the latter, given 51.8 million consoles is still a great effort for 3rd.

 

[Takao]

Howard Stringer's six years at Sony:

Why is he still in charge?

There are rumors his time is coming to an end.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Howard Stringer's six years at Sony:

Why is he still in charge?

That doesn't even include 2011 where they are down another 30%.....

 

[AgentChris]

There are rumors his time is coming to an end.

Kazuo Hirai future. At least he's Japanese.

 

[Hazelhurst]

$199 PS3. Do it, Sony!

Sony has held out long enough. It is time for the PS3 to drop below $200. Step your price down.

 

[Auto_aim1]

I disagree. I don't think a $50 will have any real impact, and with sales already down, $199 makes the most sense. It's been 2 years since the last $100 price cut, so, in the US specifically, I think, the $299 price point has really reached saturation.

Sales aren't down, at least not like pre-slim levels. They are doing quite well WW. Sony is in a tricky position, they have to choose between marketshare and profits. Will they be able to meet the demand if they drop the price by $100? Will the software sales increase enough to offset the loss in hardware? Considering the 15mil forecast this FY, it doesn't seem like a $100 price drop is on the horizon.

But I agree with you, they need to get the system down to market penetration price point and be done with it. It's already been five years since the system came out.

 

[bigtroyjon]

Sales aren't down, at least not like pre-slim levels. They are doing quite well WW. Sony is in a tricky position, they have to choose between marketshare and profits. Will they be able to meet the demand if they drop the price by $100? Will the software sales increase enough to offset the loss in hardware? Considering the 15mil forecast this FY, it doesn't seem like a $100 price drop is on the horizon.

But I agree with you, they need to get the system down to market penetration price point and be done with it. It's already been five years since the system came out.

Sales are down 25% over last year. 100 dollar cut will be needed to not only bring sales up to last FY level but to surpass them enough to make 15 million. (Need to sell 1.3 million more than last year in the last 3Q to hit 15 million.)

 

[Operations]

The ease with which their TV is being outmanoeuvred by Samsung is an embarrassment. A big management reshuffle, is the least investors deserve for yet another collective net loss.

 

[Globox_82]

PS2 is a beast! Best console ever. Man I can't believe it sold that many...

 

[funkystudent]

191 million doesnt seem like ALOT for the whole company.


havent they been losing Billions before?

 

[Elios83]

Howard Stringer's six years at Sony:

Why is he still in charge?

Stringer will be replaced in the next FY by Hirai. They are making all the preps.
Btw I don't think he was bad at a management level, he had a lot of troubles and bad luck. He restructured the company successfully twice, restoring and increasing profitability at the operative level, he improved cooperation between the different divisions and promoted the development of networked products supporting market standards and global trends evens if established by the competition.
People have probably forgot that the pre-Stringer Sony was the company not willing to support mp3 in favour of their atrac3.........now Sony music players have compatibility with Itunes.
But in both the occasions something happened that ruined his work (specifically the 2008 financial crisis and this year the tsunami/earthquake + unexpected taxes to pay).
Where Stringer failed is at the creation of new hit products, he's not a visionary, neither an engeneer. Hirai must focus on this, the creation of new products which people really want.

I disagree. I don't think a $50 will have any real impact, and with sales already down, $199 makes the most sense. It's been 2 years since the last $100 price cut, so, in the US specifically, I think, the $299 price point has really reached saturation.

There's no doubt that 199$ would be much better than 249$. Will it happen this year?
Quite difficult considering the unambitious forecast. It seems like they prefer to continue to have a slow growth pattern while focusing on profitability also considering that they have to launch an other platform in the meantime, next year the're supposed to to have a new Cell+RSX chip which will allow significant savings on manufacturing costs so they will cut the price to 199$ and maybe redesign the unit again.
We'll see what happens at Gamescom though.

 

[Operations]

Stringer will be replaced in the next FY by Hirai. They are making all the preps.
Btw I don't think he was bad at a management level, he had a lot of troubles and bad luck. He restructured the company successfully twice, restoring and increasing profitability at the operative level, he improved cooperation between the different divisions and promoted the development of networked products supporting market standards and global trends evens if established by the competition.
People have probably forgot that the pre-Stringer Sony was the company not willing to support mp3 in favour of their atrac3.........now Sony music players have compatibility with Itunes.
But in both the occasions something happened that ruined his work (specifically the 2008 financial crisis and this year the tsunami/earthquake + unexpected taxes to pay).
Where Stringer failed is at the creation of new hit products, he's not a visionary, neither an engeneer. Hirai must focus on this, the creation of new products which people really want.

Successful restructuring? Please. During his administration, Return on Equity has averaged 0.8%, one-tenth that of the Topix!! Their TV business has been in the red since 2003, and this latest profit warning is the seventh in his tenure. For Stringer, it should be galling that Sony is making more operating profit from selling insurance in Japan than all its other global product lines put together.

 

[Elios83]

Successful restructuring? Please. During his administration, Return on Equity has averaged 0.8%, one-tenth that of the Topix!! Their TV business has been in the red since 2003, and this latest profit warning is the seventh in his tenure. For Stringer, it should be galling that Sony is making more operating profit from selling insurance in Japan than all its other global product lines put together.

I don't remember all the details but when he got appointed the electronics division was in a really bad shape, in two years, 2007, he reached a 3% operative margin.
He established 5% as a goal, at the end of 2008 the global crisis ruined all the work, they were on track for growth that year and they ended up with a loss. He restructured again,the gaming division returned to profitabiity, during the 2010 FY they had a significant operative profit but because of the earthquake they ended up paying a ridicolous amount of taxes and they posted a giant net loss.
Without his restructing work I don't know where the company would be at this point, although he sucked at creating new successful products.

 

[BKK]

next year the're supposed to to have a new Cell+RSX chip which will allow significant savings on manufacturing costs so they will cut the price to 199$ and maybe redesign the unit again.

Do you have a link for that please, I'd like to read more about that.

 

[Elios83]

Do you have a link for that please, I'd like to read more about that.

http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/column/kaigai/20110210_425921.html

It says that SCEJ/Sony has decided to skip the 32/28nm process for their chips and they're working with IBM to use their 22nm manufactuting process for future technology.
There was further speculation (not on that article) that reducing PS3 chips to 32nm and redesign the system around them was not considered to be worth the investement/effort also because migration to better technology is well underway, there were design issues and benefits are not significant.
So the speculation is that they have decided to stay at 40/45nm until they can redesign PS3 around a single chip with Cell and RSX which could be out next year although frankly at this point I don't know what kind of process they would use for that. I don't think that 22nm will be ready for mass production next year....or not?
Of course nothing is confirmed at this point.

 

[Psychotext]

I don't think that 22nm will be ready for mass production next year....or not?

I don't see why not. Flash has been at 22nm for nearly a year now and intel is supposed to be shipping 22nm chips at the end of this year.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

I still don't see a $100 drop this year. The sales haven't slipped that far that a $100 is needed to bring them back to last years numbers. I still say $50 and maybe a pack in or something like Uncharted 2 or a packed in Move controller for $250.

I think they will add "value" to the box instead of dropping more off the price.

 

[BKK]

Thanks, it does seem like just speculation at this point, but it would make sense. Makes you wonder how small they could make a PS3 with 22nm CELL+RSX and flash memory instead of internal HDD.

 

[Elios83]

I don't see why not. Flash has been at 22nm for nearly a year now and intel is supposed to be shipping 22nm chips at the end of this year.

Then there's more credibility and sense to the whole story.
Skipping the investement to make 32nm versions of Cell and RSX is well worth of waiting a year to redesign PS3 around a 22nm chip containing both Cell and RSX.

 

[McHuj]

I don't see why not. Flash has been at 22nm for nearly a year now and intel is supposed to be shipping 22nm chips at the end of this year.

Memory is a lot easier to manufacture than a processor.

And I would say Intel is head and shoulders above the competition in manufacturing and according to the latest leaks, Ivy Bridge won't be coming out until Q1, maybe even Q2, of next year. That may not be due to manufacturing issues.


Maybe the competition is starting to catch up, but I have my doubts that we'll get a 22nm chip from someone other than Intel in 2012.

It would be really awesome if the process was ready for next gen consoles in 2013.

 

[specialguy]

I don't see why not. Flash has been at 22nm for nearly a year now and intel is supposed to be shipping 22nm chips at the end of this year.

Message board posters are always way, way too aggressive with process nodes.

Sony/MS switched to 45nm way after everybody else too. It doesn't make sense to be bleeding edge with consoles, it doesnt even save you money.

Intel ships 32nm Sandy Bridge right now where are Sony/MS 32nm chips? You see, they always lag. Whether they "skipped" them or not. And if they skipped them it's because it doesn't make financial sense.

Plus, Intel is always way way ahead of everybody, and that gap increasing, so what Intel is doing is somewhat irrelevant.

AMD is supposedly planning to ship 28nm GPU's from TSMC this fall. That's still pushing it and a node behind 22nm. But again, you're never going to see consoles pushing any node tech, they only use it a process once it's proven and mature.

 

[Phoenician_Viking]

How much is the BOM for the PS3? If it is less than 200 than Sony will lower the price. If it´s not, no one should think that they will lower the price. I don´t think they want to lose more money on the hardware especially after they became profitable last year.

BTW does anyone here knows if the PSP was profitable for Sony LTD? I mean total. R&D, manufacturing and initial loss? Is there any info on that?

Anyone?

 

[zomgbbqftw]

I don't see why not. Flash has been at 22nm for nearly a year now and intel is supposed to be shipping 22nm chips at the end of this year.

Intel are always about a year ahead of the competition. They started shipping 32nm class devices in early 2010, TSMC have yet to ship a 28/32nm product and GlobalFoundries (AMD) have a single 32nm product releasing this year.

I very, very much doubt Sony will be skipping the 32/28nm generation to wait for 22nm, TSMC haven't got 28nm working very well at all, I can't imagine they will have much luck with 22nm. Sony's internal foundries are being upgraded to 32nm as well so I'm sure they will be using 32nm Cell at some point next year.

 

[Parmenides]

Sales are down 25% over last year...

I disagree. I don't think a $50 will have any real impact, and with sales already down...

-During the first half of the year,PS3 retail sales have grown in U.S. and Europe (14 weeks) YoY, but for some reason global PS3 shipments have declined by around 15 percent.


NPD (U.S.)

(2011) PS3 1,692,300

(2010) PS3 1,591,000

Sales up 6.4% YoY

Gamasutra: U.S. Hardware Sales

European Hardware Sales (14 Weeks)

(2011) PS3 1,090,000

(2010) PS3 905,000

Sales up 20.4% YoY

-Retail sales in Japan declined,but the impact was minimal.

-NeoGAF: Media Create Sales Week 26

YTD
(2011) PS3 627.030

(2010) PS3 756.325

Sales down 17.1%

On the bright side,PS3 hardware sales at Japan retail are showing encouraging signs

       Wk 26      Wk 27      Wk 28      Wk 29

2011   26,441  	  22,900     23,322     23,343
2010   20,077	  18,345     19,473     19,420
2009   11,196	  9,864	     8,865      8,997

and let's not forget that the PS3 lineup for this year is stacked (FF XIII-2,MGS HD Collection,PES 2012,Ni no Kuni,Ace Combat,Macross F...will appear in the coming months)

Comgnet (Preorder Chart) -The rankings as of July 28, 2011

1.[PS3] Tales of Xillia - 455pt (Sp 8)
2.[PSP]Toriko Gourmet Survival! - 209pt (Ag 4 )
3.[PS3]Monster Hunter Portable 3rd HD Ver. - 130pt (Ag 25)
4.[PSP] Limited Edition Black ★ Rock Shooter "White Premium BOX" - 111pt (Ag 25)
5.[PS3] Dark Souls - 101pt (Sp 15)
6.[PS3] Armored Core 5 - 93Pt (Oc 20 )
7.[PSP] Idol AKB1/48 auction, please be left in their Limited Edition! BOX - 96pt (Oc 10)
8.[PS3] OG Super Robot Wars 2 - 83pt (????)
9.[PS3] Final Fantasy XIII Versus - 82Pt (???)
10.[PSP] G Airu Village Diary warm Monhan - 80pt (Ag 4)
11.[NDS] Devil Survivor 2 - 53pt (28 Jul)
12.[PSP] J. LEAGUE Make Pro Soccer Club! 56 pt (Ag 11)
13.[PS3] Super Dimensional mk2 Neptune (Limited Edition) - 55pt (Ag 18)
14.[3DS] Pokemon Super Scramble -52pt (Ag 11)
15.[Wii] Dragon Quest NES and SNES I • II • III Anniversary 25 - 48pt (Sp 15)
16.[PSP] Final Fantasy Zero – 44pt (Oc 13)
17.[PS3] Fuca and Desuko Disgaea 4 - 37Pt (Oc 27)
18.[NDS] Atsumete! Kirby - 36pt (Ag 4)
19.[PS3] Limited Box Shadow of the Colossus ICO / Wanda - 34pt (Sp 22)
20.[PSP]Limited Edition Black ★ Rock Shooter BOX THE GAME - 34pt (Ag 25)

Who would have guessed it three years ago?

Comgnet (Preorder Chart)-The rankings as of July 30, 2008

1.[NDS] Dragon Quest IX - 765pt
2.[PS2] Z Super Robot Wars - 340pt
3.[NDS] Pokemon Platinum - 306pt
4.[PSP] Phantasy Star Portable - 303pt
5.[Xbox360] Tales of Vesperia - 189pt
6.[NDS] Summon Night 2 - 101pt
7.[NDS] Dragon Quest VI - 97pt
8.[NDS] Bundle Pack Sangokushi Taisen departure for the front arcade heaven - 86pt
9.[PS2] Parareru Saka Akane color stain (Limited Edition) - 83pt
10.[PS3] Soul Calibur IV (PS3) - 81pt
11.[PSP] Upper Colosseum Fate / Tiger (Limited Edition) - 80pt
12.[PSP] Kingdom Hearts: Birth by Sleep - 76pt
13.[PS2] Eclipse Silver (Limited Edition) - 74pt
14.[NDS] Rhythm Tengoku Gold - 55pt
15.[Xbox360] Soulcalibur IV (Xbox360) - 53pt
16.[NDS] New Dark Dragon and Sword of Light Fire Emblem - 50pt
17.[PS2] Fate / unlimited codes SP-BOX figma Saber Lily Bundle - 48pt
18.[PSP] Eloquent Fist Ikkitousen (Limited Edition) - 45pt
19.[NDS] Theater board Geass Code Geass: Lelouch of the Rebellion R2 - 40pt
20.[NDS] Kingdom Hearts 358/2Days - 39pt[/b]

100 dollar cut will be needed to

put the PS3 in the 18-20 million range.

Don't be surprised;Sony is in a good position.Although it is completely true that the PlayStation brand is tarnished in North America,I have occasionally seen retail sales figures from Brazil,the Middle East or Eastern Europe,and it's clear that they have almost no competition in the international markets right now.

Btw I agree with you that the new forecast points to a new 249$ price announced at Gamescom.

I don't know.I have my doubts.

SCEJ TO INTRODUCE PS3 BUNDLE PACK FEATURING TALES OF XILLIA at a RRP of 37,980 Yen

So during the PS3's current 5 years on the market (a normal console cycle) the PS3 has sold only a bit over the PS2 in that same period?

Fuck me, I can't tell if that's bad for the PS3 or amazing for the PS2.

I'm inclined to think the latter, given 51.8 million consoles is still a great effort for 3rd.

 

[TheRagnCajun]

PS3 sales are up, shipments are down...makes sense.

 

[Elios83]

PS3 sales are up, shipments are down...makes sense.

Don't be too suprised, Sony overshipped during the last holyday season, their US sales were weak and yet they shipped 6.3m units ww, so calendar Q1 shipments were less than actual retail sales.
In the April-June period they have probably already started to clear retail channels to make room for the new models.
This should bring really healthy shipments in the next quarter when retailers around the world will be flooded with new units in late August/September.
At least...if things have a sense

I don't know.I have my doubts.

I've thought about that myself but it could simply mean that Japan will get the price drop a month later. Nintendo still hasn't mirrored the recent Wii price cut in Japan.
Although I wouldn't be too surprised if nothing gets announced at GC because...:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=29250819&postcount=180

Still they don't have a chance to sell 15m without a price cut. Their US sales during the holyday season would be tragic, so even if the price cut happens in October ww, it will happen nevertheless.

 

[bigtroyjon]

-During the first half of the year,PS3 retail sales have grown in U.S. and Europe (14 weeks) YoY, but for some reason global PS3 shipments have declined by around 15 percent.

The most recent three months are down 25% and that is the only info that really matters since we are discussing a fiscal year projection.

It doesn't actually matter if sales are slightly outpacing shipments this year because the ground they have to make up isn't changed. They have to ship 1.3 million more units over the next 9 months than they did the year before. That isn't happening without a price cut, especially when sales are declining. (in the us the ps3 is down yoy in the most recent month which matters a whole lot more than them being up yoy in the jan-mar quarter than won't even matter in the fiscal year targets.)

 

[Raistlin]

I think there biggest near future problem will be the 3D collapse. Sony should focus on getting OLED to a mass market size/price instead of pushing so hard for 3D. There gaming devision seems on the right track, though IMO.

I don't think there's really any sort of 3D 'collapse' coming. The reality is it is cheap to manufacture and never really involved that much in R&D costs on the display side ... so even if it fails entirely it doesn't particularly change things. I think it will pretty much be the standard on everything but small displays and entry-level units (60Hz). At this point it's a bullet-point that everyone will include.

The real problem in the industry is they misinterpreted sales data from the prior several years. HDTV really hit the mainstream through natural replacement and some finding the jump to HD compelling enough - once the prices became respectable.

The manufacturers were seeing year-on-year growth and were trying to figure out how to continue it. By looking at the phone/MP3/gadget market, I think they deluded themselves into thinking adding some extra features would get people to replace TV's on a much quicker basis. The problem is the price difference versus a gadget is simply way too much to see similar timing. Of course it's also quite possible they really didn't necessarily think it would work. It's just that 3D wasn't really that costly so it was worth the shot.




I think the reality of the situation is that HD was a big enough improvement that it created a bubble. The TV industry is now notably cyclical in a way it wasn't previously. We saw some good year-on-year growth because of the boom, but we'll now see declines until we hit the natural replacement growth hitting from the beginning of the boom.

That said, there probably is some truth to their theory that gadgets have made people replace sooner than in the past - just not to the level that can sustain growth continuously. I believe the cycle will be quicker than some are expecting, because gadgets have made people more likely to replace prior to failure, and far more people consider it normal to have multiple TV's in their house. Now that prices aren't crazy, people are more apt to move a TV into their basement, bedroom, or den and upgrade. It's simply not going to be as quick as gadgets.

So what can get this smaller cycle? Certainly a new display tech like OLED could do it, but I also think a combination of features can do it. For example, let's say in a few years we see some high end LCD's that combine 4K, 3D, tons of streaming services and local content playback, and widgets/apps. That aggregate of features will likely be enough to jump-start the cycle, especially as they come down in price. It isn't that no one finds 3D compelling, it's just not compelling enough given many people having bought their TV's relatively recently.





As far as Sony concentrating on OLED ... I'm sure they are, but it's simply way too expensive right now. It's a ways off assuming it ever really becomes viable.

 

[matmanx1]

I think we'll see the $50 price cut at Gamescon. I think the timing is right, the cost of producing the new "K" model PS3 is down (and "K" models are all we are selling now, the older style were sold out weeks ago) and the WW forecast of 15mm would all point to at least a modest price cut.

Make no mistake, Sony is healthier as a company today than they were when Stringer took over even if the stock price doesn't reflect that. They certainly still have significant weaknesses and need a hot new product (or products) to win back some consumer favor though.

 

[Boombloxer]

I don't think there's really any sort of 3D 'collapse' coming. The reality is it is cheap to manufacture and never really involved that much in R&D costs on the display side ... so even if it fails entirely it doesn't particularly change things. I think it will pretty much be the standard on everything but small displays and entry-level units (60Hz). At this point it's a bullet-point that everyone will include.

The real problem in the industry is they misinterpreted sales data from the prior several years. HDTV really hit the mainstream through natural replacement and some finding the jump to HD compelling enough - once the prices became respectable.

The manufacturers were seeing year-on-year growth and were trying to figure out how to continue it. By looking at the phone/MP3/gadget market, I think they deluded themselves into thinking adding some extra features would get people to replace TV's on a much quicker basis. The problem is the price difference versus a gadget is simply way too much to see similar timing. Of course it's also quite possible they really didn't necessarily think it would work. It's just that 3D wasn't really that costly so it was worth the shot.




I think the reality of the situation is that HD was a big enough improvement that it created a bubble. The TV industry is now notably cyclical in a way it wasn't previously. We saw some good year-on-year growth because of the boom, but we'll now see declines until we hit the natural replacement growth hitting from the beginning of the boom.

That said, there probably is some truth to their theory that gadgets have made people replace sooner than in the past - just not to the level that can sustain growth continuously. I believe the cycle will be quicker than some are expecting, because gadgets have made people more likely to replace prior to failure, and far more people consider it normal to have multiple TV's in their house. Now that prices aren't crazy, people are more apt to move a TV into their basement, bedroom, or den and upgrade. It's simply not going to be as quick as gadgets.

So what can get this smaller cycle? Certainly a new display tech like OLED could do it, but I also think a combination of features can do it. For example, let's say in a few years we see some high end LCD's that combine 4K, 3D, tons of streaming services and local content playback, and widgets/apps. That aggregate of features will likely be enough to jump-start the cycle, especially as they come down in price. It isn't that no one finds 3D compelling, it's just not compelling enough given many people having bought their TV's relatively recently.





As far as Sony concentrating on OLED ... I'm sure they are, but it's simply way too expensive right now. It's a ways off assuming it ever really becomes viable.

Here, here.

 

[ThisWreckage]

I believe that studies have shown that a 50 dollar price cut is ineffective because customers respond to 199.99 way better than 249.99. Their software sales are really, really good so they can probably justify a hundred dollar price drop by assuming that software sales will go even higher. Traditionally, more money is made off of software sales so they might go ahead an drop a hundred bucks just to be through with it.

Would you rather drop one hundred dollars right before holiday season 2011 or drop 50 bucks right before holiday season 2011 and holiday season 2012? The first option will have a bigger impact. Especially since games like Uncharted 3, Resistance 3, Team Ico Collection, and Twisted Metal are all launching this year. I have a hard time imagining their 2012 holiday software line up matching that.

 

[jcm]

Has anyone posted the stuff discussed in the (poorly transcribed) call?

Some gaming-related tidbits all with a giant [sic] attached:

Turning to game business, game business sales, which include network service revenues decreased year-on-year due to the impact of PS3 hardware which did not have as much momentum from hit titles at the same quarter over the previous fiscal year Red Dead Redemption was released. And due to the PS2 business as a whole, which continues to have steady demand that is picked up in insurance. Although sales decrease and results were impacted by our efforts to deal with the unauthorized network access. Operating performance of the game business as a whole including our network business was basically unchanged year-on-year because of the reduced in the hardware cost of the PS3.

As for the Red in the fiscal year, we’re on the cost of launching multiple highly anticipated titles particularly those customized for the PS move where we announced at last month PS3 conference. And from the end of the year, we launched a next generation portable entertainment system PS Vita.

...

Okay, your first question about 3DS reducing prices. Well normally you don’t comment on competitors pricing decision. but if we kind of rephrase the question and say that is this a price drop in anticipation of our (VS beta) coming on in the fall, well the only comment I can make at this point is that I mean those products are positioned different. So, pricing decisions well it’s up to the consumer to decide, but I see it I mean they are completely different products, or I don’t think there is much meaning in comparing the pricing decision of different products.

As best as I can tell from he shitty machine transcription, operating income for gaming was flat, even though sales decreased. Also, I'm pretty sure that "Red in the fiscal year" is supposed to be "rest of the fiscal year". And they think they are targeting a different market with PSV than Nintendo is with 3DS. Not especially newsworthy.