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[Suikoguy]

Is this result starting to look more possible?

I think GA and LA are possible,
AR on the other hand...

 

[Lost Fragment]

And as of this hour, this story STILL hasn't cracked into the mainstream media. Ridiculous that they haven't even bothered to post anything.

Give it time. They're probbly making calls and fact checking. If there's any truth to it (not like the Huffington post isn't bias as a motherfuck), then we'll be hearing about it.

 

[GhaleonEB]

Go tell PPP who they should poll next (aside from Florida and North Carolina, whore are on the schedule this week).

Last week they did this and people picked Missouri, resulting in today's poll.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/

Choices are:

• Arizona
• Georgia
• Indiana
• Michigan
• Mississippi
• Nevada
• South Carolina

I picked Arizona, I'd love to see some new polling there given Obama's rise in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

 

[Brannon]

HOLY SHIT at new CBS / NY TIMES Poll.

@_@ 53-39

H - O - P - I - U - M

 

[Tamanon]

Heh, talked with my mom at dinner, and she's not really that political. She's warmed up to Obama after hearing him talk about teachers and health care, but has always been a political floater. She's definitely voting for him and Hagan here in NC, but it was heartening to hear her say that she gets the feeling when watching McCain that he's conceded already. That he knows this is all over.

Also....53/39 is in LIKELY voters? Awesome!

 

[Leonsito]

I'm worried that Barack voters can see this as an easy win and will stay at home Nov. 4th, it would be ideal a -10 points difference in the polls, to keep people tense.

Obama needs a lot of the new and young vote, and young people are more likely to stay at home :/

 

[Trakdown]

Give it time. They're probbly making calls and fact checking.

There's also been some serious lag in some of these stories. CNN just started running stuff about the Palins and AIP today.

 

[StoOgE]

What does all this mean exactly? (especially the win percentage)

538.com runs what is called a "monte carlo" simulation (typically used in insurance and finance) to determine the likelihood of a given outcome. Essentially they run a set of thousands of random results using current polling as a baseline. Then, you see how many of the simulations give you a given result weighted against how strongly they won.

So an Obama wins 50% of the time by 20 points v McCain wins 50% of the time by 1 point would mean Obama is more likely to win. Even though McCain wins half of the simulations, his wins are not as strong, meaning he is more likely to "lose" his winning simulations than Obama.

In this case it means Obama is winning often and winning large. McCain's few wins are not by much. That is what that line graph represents.. the further to the left or right the line is the bigger the win. The taller the line is, the more simulations have that result.

 

[Tamanon]

There's also been some serious lag in some of these stories. CNN just started running stuff about the Palins and AIP today.

Just like how any non-FOX entity really waited to double-check shit before print, especially this close to an election. It's SOP, perfectly normal.

 

[CharlieDigital]

I'm worried that Barack voters can see this as an easy win and will stay at home Nov. 4th, it would be ideal a -10 points difference in the polls, to keep people tense.

Obama needs a lot of the new and young vote, and young people are more likely to stay at home :/

No way. I said it yesterday: there might be an "MLK Effect" whereby people who are already supporting Obama will show up at the polls for the historical relevance of their vote so that they can look back in 30 years and say "I cast a vote for the first black President of the United States".

 

[Trakdown]

I'm worried that Barack voters can see this as an easy win and will stay at home Nov. 4th, it would be ideal a -10 points difference in the polls, to keep people tense.

Obama needs a lot of the new and young vote, and young people are more likely to stay at home :/

Something tells me that Obama's going to be mobilizing his ground game harder than ever to get people to the polls. I'd also bet we see him reminding everybody with the air time he just reserved.

 

[Tamanon]

Sweet, looks like Daily Show is running a segment on the Palin rallies tonight, that'll probably be the one where John Oliver interviews attendees.

 

[Higgy]

Five Thirty Eight Update for 10/14/08

 

[Souldriver]

538.com runs what is called a "monte carlo" simulation (typically used in insurance and finance) to determine the likelihood of a given outcome. Essentially they run a set of thousands of random results using current polling as a baseline. Then, you see how many of the simulations give you a given result weighted against how strongly they won.

So an Obama wins 50% of the time by 20 points v McCain wins 50% of the time by 1 point would mean Obama is more likely to win. Even though McCain wins half of the simulations, his wins are not as strong, meaning he is more likely to "lose" his winning simulations than Obama.

In this case it means Obama is winning often and winning large. McCain's few wins are not by much. That is what that line graph represents.. the further to the left or right the line is the bigger the win. The taller the line is, the more simulations have that result.

Thanks for the explanation.

I never looked into the graph eventhough it's posted daily. Now I actually understand it.

 

[BobTheFork]

No way. I said it yesterday: there might be an "MLK Effect" whereby people who are already supporting Obama will show up at the polls for the historical relevance of their vote so that they can look back in 30 years and say "I cast a vote for the first black President of the United States".

Honestly I don't think that will get people out to the polls. I think that's something most people will say even if they didn't vote for him. I don't agree however, that the masses will be complacent and not vote. I think we'll we a good portion of new registers not vote (for whatever reason) but overall a very high total turnout.

 

[demon]

:lol :lol

 

[BobLoblaw]

No way. I said it yesterday: there might be an "MLK Effect" whereby people who are already supporting Obama will show up at the polls for the historical relevance of their vote so that they can look back in 30 years and say "I cast a vote for the first black President of the United States".

This. AAs will turn out in insanely huge numbers unlike anything seen before. This is such a historical moment. Seriously, in a thousand years, people could be looking back at this moment in time and say this is when things began changing in this country (assuming the planet earth hasn't been colonized by aliens, destroyed by meteors, etc by then).

 

[ViperVisor]

 

[BobLoblaw]

:lol Right-click, save. Thank you kind sir.

 

[DrEvil]

Huzzah, welcome new thread!

What should the drinking game be for tomorrow night?

I have a feeling McCain will avoid saying "Maverick" as much as before.


Obama will still say "fundamental" a lot (so will McCain), so that one is up there on the list.

What are the other zingers, besides that of the obvious "my friends" and "change" ?

 

[Gruco]

Is this result starting to look more possible?

I don't think so, even a massive win makes LA and AR tough. ND would go before either one.

I picked Arizona, I'd love to see some new polling there given Obama's rise in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico.

Same. Indy would be good to see, but AZ us interesting because it really would be right there were McCain not running.

Shame on the following posters. Do you have anything better to do than to post in PoliGAF?

Seriously, I dunno how people do it. I was basically a full time political junkie for the duration of the thread and still didn't make the cut.

 

[TDG]

Honestly I don't think that will get people out to the polls. I think that's something most people will say even if they didn't vote for him. I don't agree however, that the masses will be complacent and not vote. I think we'll we a good portion of new registers not vote (for whatever reason) but overall a very high total turnout.

I agree with this.

 

[Tamanon]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZv39r5cYI0

Obama has ice water in his veins man! Not even a spider fazes him!

 

[speculawyer]

HOLY SHIT at new CBS / NY TIMES Poll.

@_@ 53-39

H - O - P - I - U - M

Wow . . . going below 40 is nearly impossible these days when you count your party plus the independent leaners in your direction.

I really think all the reports of the racist and ignorant McCain supporters are turning people away. Who wants to be associated with that hateful crowd?

 

[GhaleonEB]

The New York Times has their version of the story on the CBS/NTY poll up. It shows McCain has been successful in making people aware of Ayres - but most people don't care. And beyond that, they've actually backfired on McCain.

Polls Finds Attacks by McCain Turn Off Voters

The McCain campaign’s recent angry tone and sharply personal attacks on Senator Barack Obama appear to have backfired and tarnished Senator John McCain more than their intended target, the latest New York Times/CBS News poll has found.

After several weeks in which the McCain campaign unleashed a series of harsh political attacks on Mr. Obama, trying to tie him to a former 1960s radical, among other things, the poll found that voters see Mr. McCain as waging a more negative campaign than Mr. Obama. Six in 10 of those surveyed said that Mr. McCain had spent more time attacking Mr. Obama than explaining what he would do as president; by the same margin voters said Mr. Obama was spending more of his time explaining than attacking.

After several weeks in which the McCain campaign sought to tie Mr. Obama to William Ayers, a former member of the Weather Underground, 64 percent of those polled said that they either read or heard about the subject. But a majority of those surveyed said they were not bothered by Mr. Obama’s background or past associations. Several people said in follow-up interviews that they felt Mr. McCain’s attacks on Mr. Obama were too rooted in the past, or too unconnected to the nation’s major problems.

 

[worldrunover]

:lol :lol :lol


My brother texted me today: "I think it's over. 7-11 ran out of Obama cups." :lol

 

[GrapeApes]

Damn McCain wins the day again.

 

[kkaabboomm]

gotta love the Times...

 

[CharlieDigital]

Wow . . . going below 40 is nearly impossible these days when you count your party plus the independent leaners in your direction.

I really think all the reports of the racist and ignorant McCain supporters are turning people away. Who wants to be associated with that hateful crowd?

Isn't this result an outlier according to the other polls which are out there today? I haven't seen a single national poll put him below 40% yet, so I'm not giving into the Hopium yet.

 

[Barrett2]

Gotta love this paragraph from the NY Times article explaining the new polling data.

Voters who said that their opinions of Mr. Obama had changed recently were twice as likely to say that they had gotten better as to say they had gotten worse. And voters who said that their views of Mr. McCain had changed were three times more likely to say that they had gotten worse than to say they had improved.

:lol :lol

 

[worldrunover]

I think it would be interesting to see how McCain would be polling right now if he had total control over his campaign (maintained a positive vibe, picked a VP who he trusted and was qualified, etc). It couldn't be worse than this, right?

 

[GhaleonEB]

Damn McCain wins the day again.

That feature is a joke, and the awarding of it is clearly in the realm of the media trying to keep it close. Yesterday McCain "won the day" despite coverage of Obama's economic proposals by rolling out a new stump speech. Today he "wins the day" because....he made his own economic proposals, which they admit are not even getting much praise. Despite this, they warn that Obama now needs to be careful because McCain is encroaching on Obama's economic turf. :lol

Politico overall is a pretty sad operation, but that feature amuses me to no end, like Drudge's desperation.

 

[BobLoblaw]

I think it would be interesting to see how McCain would be polling right now if he had total control over his campaign (maintained a positive vibe, picked a VP who he trusted and was qualified, etc). It couldn't be worse than this, right?

Nope. It'd be much closer with independents, but his "base" would've completely fallen out.

 

[TDG]

I'm fairly sure that CBS/NYT polls have a Dem. slant, so I'm not going to put too much stock in this one.

I think it would be interesting to see how McCain would be polling right now if he had total control over his campaign (maintained a positive vibe, picked a VP who he trusted and was qualified, etc). It couldn't be worse than this, right?

It would be interesting. Look at the polls right before the conventions: they were neck-and-neck. I think we'd be looking at a very, very close election if McCain hadn't made a goofy VP pick, and had continued with his consistant message about taxes, about fiscal responsibility, and about experience.

 

[Chichikov]

The New York Times has their version of the story on the CBS/NTY poll up. It shows McCain has been successful in making people aware of Ayres - but most people don't care. And beyond that, they've actually backfired on McCain.

If it is in fact true, the analysis of the effect of the attack ads that is, this is huge and great news for American politics.
I hope '08 is the year we bury Karl Rove politics.

So much hopium!

No wait, that's the vicodin I got from my dentist.
Tastes like hopium though.

 

[johnsmith]

Damn McCain wins the day again.

http://www.236.com/video/2008/get_your_war_on_news_cycle_1_9305.php

 

[GhaleonEB]

I'm fairly sure that CBS/NYT polls have a Dem. slant, so I'm not going to put too much stick in this one.

You are correct sir. To be precise:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbsnyt-poll-preempt.html

Presently, our best estimate is that Obama has about an 8-point national lead. However, CBS polls have leaned about 3 points more Democratic than the average this year. In other words, our baseline expectation is that a CBS poll should be showing about an 11-point for Obama right now.

You wind up to the Obama side of the +/- 3 point margin of error, and that's how you get to 14 points.

So knock off 3-6 points and you get a more reasonable estimate; which is right where the average is right now, ~8-9 points.

 

[Frank the Great]

I think it would be interesting to see how McCain would be polling right now if he had total control over his campaign (maintained a positive vibe, picked a VP who he trusted and was qualified, etc). It couldn't be worse than this, right?

McCain would be doing either just as bad or worse if he had went with Lieberman. His campaigned needed to get the Republican base riled up, his problem was that he picked the absolutely wrong person to do it.

See how Palin's increasingly negative ratings sunk McCain's numbers? With Lieberman, they would have always been negative and would have sunk his numbers quicker. This COULD have been a good thing for McCain because he would have had more time to recover, but it's really hard to predict.

One thing is for sure though. If Palin was never picked, and a moderate was, the tone of this campaign would be a lot more respectful.

 

[kkaabboomm]

You are correct sir. To be precise:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/cbsnyt-poll-preempt.html



So knock off 3-6 points and you get a more reasonable estimate; which is right where the average is right now, ~8-9 points.

sounds good. 13-14 points, 8-9 points, it's still EIGHT TO NINE POINTS NATIONAL LEAD. there are exactly 3 weeks until election day, and it is literally a solid 8-9 point lead, nationally. state by state, he's got that alone in 270EV's. just...wow

 

[HylianTom]

I'm wondering about how things would've been had he picked Huckabee or Romney.

Huckabee would've been loved by the base, and the guy is incredibly, incredibly charming. Super smooth. I could've seen him serving the ticket better than Palin.

Romney makes me look at the electoral map. New Hampshire, Michigan, and Colorado suddenly begin to look more likely for McCain. And with the economy in the headlines, he would've done much (rightly or wrongly) to reassure voters on the ticket's fiscal credentials.

 

[Arde5643]

I think it would be interesting to see how McCain would be polling right now if he had total control over his campaign (maintained a positive vibe, picked a VP who he trusted and was qualified, etc). It couldn't be worse than this, right?

He'd still lose, but it would've been more like Hillary lost to Obama lose rather than what it is right now.

Basically, the republican base would've still stayed close (or at least much closer than what's going now) and McCain would've still kept his career.

 

[RubxQub]

One fact that no one should be overlooking is that despite what happens in the future to the polling numbers, EARLY VOTING HAS ALREADY STARTED.

 

[GhaleonEB]

sounds good. 13-14 points, 8-9 points, it's still EIGHT TO NINE POINTS NATIONAL LEAD. there are exactly 3 weeks until election day, and it is literally a solid 8-9 point lead, nationally. state by state, he's got that alone in 270EV's. just...wow

To point out what someone at both Gallup and Pollster mentioned last week:

No one in history has ever come back from this deficit this close to the election to win. Not Reagan, not anyone. Never. Been. Done.

I don't see the media discussing this, for some reason.

 

[pxleyes]

OH SNAP! Olbermann with the Romo/Cowboys jab! :lol :lol :lol

 

[Iksenpets]

I'm wondering about how things would've been had he picked Huckabee or Romney.

Huckabee would've been loved by the base, and the guy is incredibly, incredibly charming. Super smooth. I could've seen him serving the ticket better than Palin.

Romney makes me look at the electoral map. New Hampshire, Michigan, and Colorado suddenly begin to look more likely for McCain. And with the economy in the headlines, he would've done much (rightly or wrongly) to reassure voters on the ticket's fiscal credentials.

Both I think would've been much better. Romney would've greatly weakened the bad economy's effect on McCain, and Huckabee would've given the same boost in base enthusiasm that Palin did, but he's actually intelligent and qualified, so he wouldn't turn off independents nearly as badly.

 

[avaya]

To point out what someone at both Gallup and Pollster mentioned last week:

No one in history has ever come back from this deficit this close to the election to win. Not Reagan, not anyone. Never. Been. Done.

I don't see the media discussing this, for some reason.

Blitzer: Too close to call :lol

I'm putting my money where my mouth is £5,000 on CO, IA, VA and FL.

 

[Rewrite]

I had missed the previous debate but I won't miss this one!

 

[HylianTom]

To point out what someone at both Gallup and Pollster mentioned last week:

No one in history has ever come back from this deficit this close to the election to win. Not Reagan, not anyone. Never. Been. Done.

I don't see the media discussing this, for some reason.

It took from September 15th to now to achieve such a lead. Even if McCain began to inch back, time is not on his side. The debate will likely not help (Olbermann's reporting just now makes me wonder if McCain will bring-up Rezko, Ayers, etc), and the infomercial will cock-block most (if not all) gains that McCain could make in the final week.

 

[hokahey]

I don't see the media discussing this, for some reason.

Because it would only be a compelling narrative for about half the nation.

We all tune in when it's "too close to call."

 

[GhaleonEB]

It took from September 15th to now to achieve such a lead. Even if McCain began to inch back, time is not on his side. The debate will likely not help (Olbermann's reporting just now makes me wonder if McCain will bring-up Rezko, Ayers, etc), and the infomercial will cock-block most (if not all) gains that McCain could make in the final week.

And as RubxQub mentioned, nearly 30 states have early voting that is open right now. (31 will be up and running in a couple days.)

At this moment, when Obama's lead is his largest ever, he's locking in millions of votes that can't be changed if/when the polls close down in the next 3 weeks.

Because it would only be a compelling narrative for about half the nation.

We all tune in when it's "too close to call."

I was being facetious. It's the same as in the primary: close races for ratings, facts be damned.