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Trump widens his lead over closest GOP rival (NBC/WSJ poll)

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K

KHarvey16

Member
Clockwork5 said:
They don't just poll white, male, primary voters in the national election polls. They poll everyone. Some of them don't even ask if you are a republican or democrat because it can be seen as a leading question.

All I am saying is be careful because there are very real reasons this all could go very well for Trump and I'm being told to settle down.
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Those types of polls are almost less than useless at this stage.

The democratic party will be very happy if Trump wins the nomination, and they should be.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
KHarvey16 said:
Those types of polls are almost less than useless at this stage.

The democratic party will be very happy if Trump wins the nomination, and they should be.
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I think either Trump or Cruz will be soft targets for them, but I'm worried that even saying that will cause some spectacular scandal around the Democratic candidate that hands the Republicans the win.
 
K

KHarvey16

Member
plagiarize said:
I think either Trump or Cruz will be soft targets for them, but I'm worried that even saying that will cause some spectacular scandal around the Democratic candidate that hands the Republicans the win.
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Eh, any scandal on that scale would have happened anyway, and I would rather it happen when going against Trump than, say, Rubio. I think the democratic ticket survives all but the very worst of scandals against Trump.
 
N

numble

Member
Clockwork5 said:
They don't just poll white, male, primary voters in the national election polls. They poll everyone. Some of them don't even ask if you are a republican or democrat because it can be seen as a leading question.

All I am saying is be careful because there are very real reasons this all could go very well for Trump and I'm being told to settle down.

Edit: I think I just discovered the Trump paradox. If you take him seriously, you are not taken seriously.
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This is a poll of Republican likely primary voters.
 
G

gdt

Member
Honestly, I'd rather have Trump than most anyone on that list. Carson and Cruz are legitimately terrifying, and Rubio can go fuck off.

So yeah I hope he wins the nom. Dems and Independents would be so riled up that the turnout will be crazy. He's reviled by anyone not in his crazy racist base.
 
P

professor_t

Member
The margin of error is pretty high, so the true difference between Trump and Cruz may not be as big as it looks when you only examine the sample percentages, but this still doesn't look for Nate Silver.
I mean America
 
Mikey Jr.

Mikey Jr.

Member
Just get to the fucking vote already and make this shit official.

I honestly thought jeb was going to win in the end. He seemed the most normal. But fucking 5%? You don't recover from that shit.
 
L

linsivvi

Member
Leona Lewis said:
Craziest? Yes.

Dumbest? Not by a long-shot.

These two know exactly what they're doing.

For unbridled, laughable incompetence, look no further than

jeb.jpg
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Yep. Those two know exactly what they are doing, especially Cruz.

Anyone who thinks Cruz is dumb hasn't been paying attention. His education and career path is nothing but amazing.

Jeb, on the other hand, went backwards even with his family prestige and shit ton of money. This is the dumbest candidate of both parties by a mile.
 
L

lenovox1

Member
Clockwork5 said:
They don't just poll white, male, primary voters in the national election polls. They poll everyone. Some of them don't even ask if you are a republican or democrat because it can be seen as a leading question.

All I am saying is be careful because there are very real reasons this all could go very well for Trump and I'm being told to settle down.

Edit: I think I just discovered the Trump paradox. If you take him seriously, you are not taken seriously.
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I understand you, but at the end of the day, you have to be cognizant of how the electoral college works.

It doesn't matter if he polls closely with Clinton on a national level. What matters is where he polls in prospective "battleground" states. Can you imagine any state that Obama won flipping to Trump at this juncture?
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Aaronology said:
A year ago you would have been laughed out of a thread to even suggest he could win a primary. And yet here we are...



31 Governor seats.
54 Senators.
246 Representatives.

An election away from completely controlling the US Government... but they're fucked?
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Clockwork5 said:
I mean the Trump/Clinton national polls are within the margin of error, but ok. I hope the Democratic Party doesn't just ride the wave of the Obama turnout the way you seem too. That isn't happening for Sanders or Clinton.

This "fucked" GOP controls the House, Senate and governs 31 of our states.
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My mistake for not being specific. The GOP is fucked if they expect to win a presidential election again with their current platform. I would be absolutely stunned to see a candidate who runs on racist/sexist dog whistles win a general election given the demographics of the 2016 electorate. The GOP has taken a 5-point advantage among whites under 40 in 2012 and turned it into a 5-point deficit, turned a 20-point deficit among latinos into a 35-point deficit, and shifted their disadvantage among all adults from 5 points to about 10 points. In addition to that, the only group they still have a significant edge with, whites over 40 and white christians, represent less of the overall electorate than they ever have. On top of that, all of these trends are primed to become worse for republicans over the next 10 months, not better.
 
A

Angelus Errare

Banned
OrangeGrayBlue said:
My mistake for not being specific. The GOP is fucked if they expect to win a presidential election again with their current platform. I would be absolutely stunned to see a candidate who runs on racist/sexist dog whistles win a general election given the demographics of the 2016 electorate. The GOP has taken a 5-point advantage among whites under 40 in 2012 and turned it into a 5-point deficit, turned a 20-point deficit among latinos into a 35-point deficit, and shifted their disadvantage among all adults from 5 points to about 10 points. In addition to that, the only group they still have a significant edge with, whites over 40 and white christians, represent less of the overall electorate than they ever have. On top of that, all of these trends are primed to become worse for republicans over the next 10 months, not better.
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Great summarization, unfortunately people are going to ignore these pesky facts. Old white Christians simply aren't big enough of a base to win.
 
D

Downhome

Member
I should have posted this here and not in the other thread, whoops.

It's pretty obvious now that Fiorina and Carson are the Cain/Huckabee/etc... of this election cycle. They are the candidates that people dipped their toes in with just to try them out, and ultimately they didn't like what they saw. Trump is something completely different, he is more than that, he is the flat out front runner. I predicted he would win the nomination many months ago, and I have zero doubt in my mind. I originally predicted a Clinton landslide no matter who won, even Trump.

However, as time has gone by, I'm starting to seriously believe that things just may shift and come one year from now we very well may have a President Trump. If he goes into the primaries and dominates them, and possibly sweeps them, then I believe he will go all the way unless some sort of crazy scandal breaks. If that kind of thing was going to come out though, I think we would have already seen it in this wacky process.

After Trump slapped down Cruz last night with the New York thing, I think that is the icing on the cake of Trump taking Iowa as well. Heck, even Rubio helped slap him down to the point where I think it will help Trump.

TS-08 said:
That might actually be a net negative for Bush, if anything.
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It sure wont help him in SC, that's for sure.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
Mikey Jr. said:
Just get to the fucking vote already and make this shit official.

I honestly thought jeb was going to win in the end. He seemed the most normal. But fucking 5%? You don't recover from that shit.
Click to expand...

which makes Jeb the most dangerous, he fools you into looking normal when in the end he has surrounded himself with his brother's former team and advisers in hopes to continue his family's foreign policy legacy
 
D

Downhome

Member
friskykillface said:
lol Bush
just take the L and go home bro, the legacy is ruined ;)

Trump the gods hype train won't be stopped
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I kind of feel sad for Bush. I mean, strip away beliefs and this and that, and look at it purely from his standpoint and his expectations. He was truly the front runner. He had the name to live up to, people have begged him for years to run and people were just waiting for it, for another Bush to take out a Clinton. Then out of the blue comes Donald f'n Trump of all people, totally changes the game and the "plan". Then in the debates Trump continuously makes Jeb look like a moron. He is thrown off his game and his mannerisms and everything look desperate.

SNL has completely NAILED the current Jeb in their skits and how they present him. He really does look like a sad little child, being spanked by his elders and put in his place. That is how it is presented and how many people are viewing him now.

I don't know, I just can't help but feel sorry for him a tiny bit after I ignore everything else. I can't even imagine how he must feel, how he feels about disappointing his family and all of that.

Then again I am a softie and I always feel for people in those cringe videos, and Jeb's campaign has just been one huge long nonstop cringe videos.

There is a Trump rally about to start in Urbandale, IA for whatever it's worth btw. Should be something after last night, haha...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijVJ9Ul-ewM
 
D

Downhome

Member
Concerning his Town Hall event that is about to start, I also just saw this and giggled at the news...

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...e-trump-holds-first-post-debate-rally-in-iowa

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump is holding a town hall meeting at the Living History Farms in Urbandale, Iowa — his first campaign event following Thursday night’s GOP debate.

The real estate mogul is also treating the residents of Urbandale to a free screening of Michael Bay's new film, "13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi,” at a local movie theater he rented out for the occasion.
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More...

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...ree-showing-benghazi-movie-13-hours/78823046/

Donald Trump has rented space at an Urbandale movie theater and will give Iowans free tickets to a showing of the Benghazi movie that critics of Hillary Clinton have been eagerly awaiting.

“Mr. Trump would like all Americans to know the truth about what happened at Benghazi,” the GOP presidential candidate’s Iowa co-chair Tana Goertz said Thursday night.

Trump will pay for the showing of “13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi” at 6 p.m. Friday at the Carmike Cobblestone 9 Theatre at 86th Street and Hickman Road, Goertz said.

“The theater is paid for. The tickets are paid for. You just have to RSVP,” she said.

The movie depicts the terrorist raid on the U.S. diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya on Sept. 11, 2012. It reportedly makes no mention of Clinton, then the U.S. Secretary of State, but has again raised the topic of the Democratic presidential candidate’s role in the tragedy, three months after Republicans grilled her on her response to the attacks during an 11-hour congressional hearing in October.
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E

exmachina64

Banned
eot said:
When do they select the candidate?
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This will happen through a series of state-level elections known as primaries or caucuses. The nominee is determined by which candidate receives a majority of delegates. Currently, Trump appears to have enough of a lead in enough states that he will be the nominee. The remote hope to which some cling is that no candidate wins enough delegates to take the nomination and the process reverts to a series of backroom deals that allows an establishment politician to accept the nomination.

The first of these elections, the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, will occur on February 1 and February 9, respectively. By the end of Super Tuesday, a day on which twelve states will hold their respective primaries (March 1), we will know the outcome of the nomination process.
 
eot

eot

Banned
exmachina64 said:
This will happen through a series of state-level elections known as primaries or caucuses. The nominee is determined by which candidate receives a majority of delegates. Currently, Trump appears to have enough of a lead in enough states that he will be the nominee. The remote hope to which some cling is that no candidate wins enough delegates to take the nomination and the process reverts to a series of backroom deals that allows an establishment politician to accept the nomination.

The first of these elections, the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary, will occur on February 1 and February 9, respectively. By the end of Super Tuesday, a day on which twelve states will hold their respective primaries (March 1), we will know the outcome of the nomination process.
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Thanks for the explanation. So I guess it's registered party members who participate in the vote?
 
M

Manmademan

Member
eot said:
Thanks for the explanation. So I guess it's registered party members who participate in the vote?
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depends on the state. some states require you to be registered with the party, some states have "open" primaries where you just need to be registered, but not necessarily as a republican.
 
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