-Pyromaniac-
Member
I'm thinking a jan/Feb announcement with a Christmas release.
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Pachter predicts NX won't release in 2016
- Thread starter BennyBlanco
- Start date
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
That doesn't really mean anything. The Wii was first hinted at in 2004, wasn't offically unveiled until 2005 and wasn't even released until 2006. That turned out to be huge success. Likewise, Microsoft unveiled and released the Xbox One within the same year and people tend to forget how much of a marketing disaster that was pre-release. The Wii U could've been unveiled in Spring 2011 and released later that fall and it still would've flopped due to poor and confusing marketing.
IIRC someone did a breakdown a while back and his correct % was somewhere around there. I think he mostly gets so much traction here because when he's wrong he tends to be hilariously/outlandishly/obviously wrong, especially on some things he doubles down on.
As was mentioned earlier I don't think he advises on Nintendo stock/holdings and so I think that's why it seems like a lot of the stuff he gets the most flak for is his Nintendo prediction which he basically does for funsies. You could argue that maybe it wouldn't be the best idea for him to throw out predictions that seemingly are wrong a lot because it could affect perception of his predictions that do matter where money is involved, but his clients don't seem to give a shit and he's probably half fucking with people at this point so more power to him.
brandonh83
Banned
E3 ish with a November release.
axisofweevils
Holy crap! Today's real megaton is that more than two people can have the same first name.
I'd be stunned if it didn't
MightyHedgehog
Member
Sorry, I never said I was sure...just that it makes more sense than not according to the reasons I gave, but I don't get why you seem to think that it would be too early or that they would have a lackluster lineup. Maybe I'm just more optimistic.
I think there is very little actual reason to release it next holiday.
Postponing it to spring 2017 has numerous benefits, disregarding the potential of a split launch (if the launch is split, there's too much unknown to accurately predict anything so I won't bother).
1. Maximize sales of Zelda U should it be cross-platform
2. Ensure that what little thunder is left for 2016 titles isn't completely evaporated
3. Gives extra time to develop launch titles (it's probable they haven't gone full gear into development until this year, and a year and a half for a game on new hardware is rather stringent).
4. Not releasing in a holiday window has the benefit of getting a shaky launch out of the way before the general public develops substantial interest, and lets it be eligible for 1 or 2 black friday bundles (hardly anything major in its first year though).
Wii U's next year is substantially better than Wii's 2012, albeit as a byproduct of the delays (which may have been partially intentional in order to space out what titles were in the pipeline for the system).
Postponing it to spring 2017 has numerous benefits, disregarding the potential of a split launch (if the launch is split, there's too much unknown to accurately predict anything so I won't bother).
1. Maximize sales of Zelda U should it be cross-platform
2. Ensure that what little thunder is left for 2016 titles isn't completely evaporated
3. Gives extra time to develop launch titles (it's probable they haven't gone full gear into development until this year, and a year and a half for a game on new hardware is rather stringent).
4. Not releasing in a holiday window has the benefit of getting a shaky launch out of the way before the general public develops substantial interest, and lets it be eligible for 1 or 2 black friday bundles (hardly anything major in its first year though).
Wii U's next year is substantially better than Wii's 2012, albeit as a byproduct of the delays (which may have been partially intentional in order to space out what titles were in the pipeline for the system).
-Pyromaniac-
Member
E3 will be the blowout but expect them to try to get ahead of leaks and announce early in the year.
Their investors will sell stock. How are they possibly going to keep hitting their revenue targets in 2016?
Pachter is the most tired ass thing in every thread.
Then your prediction is that Nintendo won't be making anymore consoles after the PS4 destroys everyone by 2017. Right?
I'm not following your logic. Elaborate.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
Amiibo, mobile, various future plans, there's like 3 Zelda Games coming out that year which chances are they'll sell well. Hell, 2016's 3DS line-up is looking better than last year. It's not like they don't have stuff that'll hold interest outside of Nintendo's supposed savior the NX.
Surface of Me
I'm not an NPC. And neither are we.
No way Nintendo aint releasing it next year.
Muchi Muchi Pink
Member
I agree with this. Actually the recent Wii U and 3ds releases indicate that all the bigger Nintendo studios are, indeed, working on NX titles for at least 1-2 years.
If Nintendo waits to release a console in 2017 they will not be putting a dent in current PS4 sales and will be battling it out with Microsoft for second place (in which case just keep supporting the Wii U). Releasing in 2016 (assuming their console surpasses the PS4/XBO in power) gives them more time to get consoles into homes and thus attracting more development. Not looking good for Nintendo in any case. Let's hope that I'm wrong and we can all be pleasantly surprised by having some chimichangas.
If Nintendo decides to write off WiiU and has some sense of urgency, then they'd push for 2016 release. 2017 sounds reasonable but it may be too late for them to capture any significant part of the console market. NX probably needs to be compatible with WiiU titles, have releases for a lot of first party near launch, and reach parity with PS4/Xbone in terms of 3rd party before I would even consider getting it.
MightyHedgehog
Member
If their new platform is as different as they mention, they aren't trying to fight for traditional console marketshare and are going for an underserved or outside audience that may only overlap to some degree with the current and still contracting console market MS and Sony are targeting.
I don' think 2016 will be as bad as some people make it out to be for Wii U. Granted, there still will be a software droughts to be sure, but Wii U will likely have 1-2 newly announced games coming out later on.From what we know so far, here's the confirmed titles coming out by Spring 2016:
- Twilight Princess HD coming March 4
- Star Fox: Zero - April
- Pokken Tournament - April
What has yet to be confirmed is the localized release of Persona X Fire Emblem (whatever the hell it's called) and Legend of Zelda. My guess is that the Persona X Fire Emblem title will come out during the Summer, likely August, and Legend of Zelda will come out for the holiday in November. Potentially, Retro Studios may reveal its new title by June 2016 at E3. According to Nintendo producer, Kensuke Tanabe, we know it has been in early development/planning phase since some time in 2013. Who knows, it could be ready in time for December, and as Reggie has said before, Nintendo gets 60% of its revenue from the year during the holiday season period. OF course, Retro Studios could take a bit longer and have its title delayed to the Q1 2017.
Lastly, Miyamoto already confirmed the development of Pikmin 4 being nearly finished, and based on his own comment from 2014, the Pikmin IP is better to keep on Wii U than 3DS because both the 3DS and DS touchscreen interface proved to not be an ideal for the play-style of the Pikmin games. Also, Nintendo will still apparently have a few remaining 3DS titles coming such as Metroid Prime: Federation Force and of course, a couple of mobile titles too, probably 3 or so.
They ****ing already did that with the Wii U. Why not just go 3rd party and stop the madness? Unbelievable.
Lord Ghirahim
Member
DQXI is not getting pushed to 2017 no matter what sort of backwards logic you might employ. Or is the implication that Nintendo is somehow planning to miss out on bundling NX with DQXI next year?
DXB-KNIGHT
Member
Finally an official confirmation of the 2016 launch.
Especially in Japan. 2016 launch or death. Choose wisely Nintendo.
KratosEnergyDrink
Member
Wii had all of this games except GTA. Wii U had two of them. So of NX will get surely some of them. Don't matter anyway, Nintendo will surely not try to convert the CoD & Fifa crowd to NX. These games would be only a bonus.
Fate/Cipher
Member
Damn it. Every Pachter thread, I'm beat to it. Not as funny as I thought, I guess! January 1st worldwide release.
MightyHedgehog
Member
Honestly, Wii U seemed more like a halfway attempt to fight for the traditional console market they mostly ignored last gen. I'm sure they figured out that going the distance rather than splitting the difference is probably more likely to succeed. So, Wii U remains their more traditional platform for the time being, and NX is something more akin to the bigger bet on something different that they made with the Wii.
It's coming in 2016.
My other predictions on NX -
My other predictions on NX -
- It'll have mobile phone parts like an iPhone
- There will be a set top box so you can play on TV.
- The controller will have a screen like a handheld
- It will have yearly hardware iterations like the iPhone
- It will have an app shop nature like Steam and iOS which means you keep your library of games as long as you want.
- It will eventually have the entire back catalogue of Nintendo games or at least the ones that are not held back by licensing issues. With Wii U games coming a lot later once hardware has improved.
- It will allow users to bring in their own NX controller from their own system and use it for multiplayer on another machine.
- It will run some variant of Android but with its own app system so you can install apps and use the controller like a phone or webcam.
- It will be easy for devs to make games and upload to the store (like iOS)
- It will be US$249-299
- It will be released in May 2016 which is when I'll be in Japan for a couple of weeks so I can stand in line and get one. September 2016 in the west.
Spyder_Monkey
Banned
DQXI is coming out by the end of May 2017 at the latest. So it's possible.
Yeah, within the fiscal year of the 30th anniversary of Dragon Quest, something like that.
They can launch NX in 2017 but how the heck Wii U and 3DS are going to survive until then? Wii U lineup in 2016 looks barebones than ever and at this point is suicidal to continue developing games for this console except for the ones that are already in the middle of the development or close to completition.
casinoman921
Member
Nintendo's making money again so I could see them releasing at the earliest March 2017. All their investors seem to care about is mobile, mobile, mobile, and if that takes off like they hope that could buy the NX more time.
If it does release in 2016, I guess Zelda would be the big launch title. Who knows what else is in the works. But it can't be a Wii U situation all over again.
If it does release in 2016, I guess Zelda would be the big launch title. Who knows what else is in the works. But it can't be a Wii U situation all over again.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
They've been planning for a tighter window this time. We shall see if the seeds bear timely fruits soon enough!
NinjaCoachZ
Member
"Tighter window"? Sounds good, if it's anything like I imagined. Thanks for the tip.
knew before I clicked...
You seem to be completely oblivious to how nintendo has operated for the last 10 years.
You also fail to state why it's important to take from the PS4's userbase other than "consolewars".
He's basically doing his old 'well last time' shtick that gets him a free get out of jail card as he can blame Nintendo for doing something differently.
The point is Nintnedo might look for a different release window.
I feel the fact that we saw the box earlier is a significant factor in the case of the wii. We had a tangible idea much earlier.
Suzushiiro
Banned
PS4 and Xbone launched the year they were announced, but as Pachter touches on that was helped by the fact that they both went with architectures that allowed for easy porting of existing third-party multiplats. It wasn't until mid to late 2014 that we started seeing third parties release games that were actually designed with the current gen in mind, as opposed to ones designed around last-gen that used assets/effects that would otherwise have only been used on the PC for the current-gen versions. If Nintendo sticks with PowerPC or goes with ARM then it becomes more difficult for third parties to port their multiplats to NX, if NX even winds up being strong enough to support them.
That said, why would Nintendo give a fuck about giving third parties time to develop games for their console? As much as we like to talk about how Nintendo fucks themselves over with third parties, historically Nintendo platforms either get too popular for third parties to ignore on the backs of Nintendo's first-party software or they don't, scrape by on Nintendo's strong first-party lineup, and are lucky to get the table scraps of the third parties that proceed to go with Sony/MS. Yeah, it would be nice if Nintendo actually gave a fuck about third parties this time around, but if I'm a Nintendo executive I wouldn't see much use in delaying the release of the platform for their sake.
That said, why would Nintendo give a fuck about giving third parties time to develop games for their console? As much as we like to talk about how Nintendo fucks themselves over with third parties, historically Nintendo platforms either get too popular for third parties to ignore on the backs of Nintendo's first-party software or they don't, scrape by on Nintendo's strong first-party lineup, and are lucky to get the table scraps of the third parties that proceed to go with Sony/MS. Yeah, it would be nice if Nintendo actually gave a fuck about third parties this time around, but if I'm a Nintendo executive I wouldn't see much use in delaying the release of the platform for their sake.
VendettaRed07
Member
Remember when he said that his Wii HD in 2010 prediction came true because the PS Move came out? That was funny