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Famitsu Analysts' Sales Expectations for Holidays
- Thread starter cvxfreak
- Start date
TheGreatDave
Banned
enishi said:
Poor Sega.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
Jesus Christ, they really are optimistic with GT5P.enishi said:
Wii NiGHTS - 150k
NDS Dragon Quest IV - 1.2m
NDS Tales of Innocence - 200k
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 300k
Magicpaint
Member
1m for DQIV is certainly doable, but 1.5 m would mean it'll outsell the PS version. o_0
So basically they think ToI will sell just like TotT (and less than a spin-off like Radiant Mythology)? That'll be a freaking disaster should that happen.
So basically they think ToI will sell just like TotT (and less than a spin-off like Radiant Mythology)? That'll be a freaking disaster should that happen.
But this isn't a real GT game, and the PS3 is not nearly as big in Japan as its predecessors.Yoboman said:
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
GT4 Prologue didn't even crack 1m. All Minna no Golf entries were million sellers and Mingol5 did slighty over 300k. I'm probably being optimistic that it won't get eaten alive by other major games in the Christmas period...Yoboman said:
I didn't mean 200k as in shipping 200k, selling less than 40% first week and shops having to put it in bargain bins to clear get the remaining stock. I'm a bit more positive than that even if I say the same LTD.Magicpaint said:
Magicpaint
Member
Yeah, but even that would still be bad. That's still less than what Radiant Mythology pulled and that's a spin-off. I can't say what I expect, but I think they'll ship more than they did with Tempest; the question is whether or not they'll sell much of it. But if this title doesn't do 500k+, then they'd be better off moving it to the PSP, as that's only other place I can see the series thriving.Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Pureauthor
Member
Yoboman said:
Balancing that out is that the PS2's sales were above the 'absolutely abysmal' level.
frankie_baby
Member
i'm starting to think both nights and umbrella chronicles could sell surprisingly well
J-prediction! Even more pessimistic! :lol
Only through year's end though (no 2008)...
NDS Final Fantasy IV - 750.000
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2 - 450.000
NDS Mario Party DS - 450.000
NDS Dragon Quest IV - 1.100.000
NDS Tales of Innocence - 350.000
PSP Minna no Golf Portable 2 - 350.000
PS3 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 - 250.000 (50.000 360 btw)
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 275.000
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 - 750.000 (250.000 for 360/PS3/PSP/DS combined)
PS2 SD Gundam Generation Spirits - 250.000
PS2 Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden - 225.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1.350.000
Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 225.000
Wii Wii Fit - 1.200.000
Wii NiGHTS - 100.000
X360 Lost Odyssey - 175.000
X360 Ace Combat 6 - 50.000
Only through year's end though (no 2008)...
NDS Final Fantasy IV - 750.000
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2 - 450.000
NDS Mario Party DS - 450.000
NDS Dragon Quest IV - 1.100.000
NDS Tales of Innocence - 350.000
PSP Minna no Golf Portable 2 - 350.000
PS3 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 - 250.000 (50.000 360 btw)
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 275.000
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 - 750.000 (250.000 for 360/PS3/PSP/DS combined)
PS2 SD Gundam Generation Spirits - 250.000
PS2 Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden - 225.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1.350.000
Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 225.000
Wii Wii Fit - 1.200.000
Wii NiGHTS - 100.000
X360 Lost Odyssey - 175.000
X360 Ace Combat 6 - 50.000
Wii Fit seems high, but who the hell knows.
Galaxy seems about right.
RE:UC seems high, but if people really like the zapper then the bundle might help it.
One odd thing I've noticed from glancing at the Japanese Amazon chart- Galaxy is consistently lower than games like NiGHTS and RE:UC. I'm sure it doesn't mean anything, but it just struck me as a bit odd.
Galaxy seems about right.
RE:UC seems high, but if people really like the zapper then the bundle might help it.
One odd thing I've noticed from glancing at the Japanese Amazon chart- Galaxy is consistently lower than games like NiGHTS and RE:UC. I'm sure it doesn't mean anything, but it just struck me as a bit odd.
Phife Dawg
Member
GT4P: 747.692 (userbase: 12,5M), GT4: 1.066.749 (userbase: 15,5M)Yoboman said:
Basically they are saying that GT5P will sell about the same as GT4. :lol
Lair, of all games, managed to break the top ten in Japan.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=29739
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=29739
Pureauthor
Member
Wollan said:
Shocking news. Stop the presses.
Pureauthor
Member
Kaako said:Say what?...Wow.
What numbers did it put up in Japan?
Holy crap @ WiiFit predictions
22K, and anyone who's the least bit interested in Japanese sales should already have known this for a while.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Lost Odyssey is definitely not doing 300k this year, and most likely will never hit 300k.
Segata Sanshiro
Member
200k in Japan would be an acceptable result. Would certainly pound the snot out of the recent Sonic games' sales there.TheGreatDave said:
Mockingbird
Member
Kobun Heat said:
. . .can you imagine how crushed Nintendo would be if this fails?
Magicpaint
Member
Seriously o_0ethelred said:
I mean even for first week sales, that's hardly adequate for a main tales title.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Xisiqomelir said:
Do Japanese 360 owners really have something better to play? Do Japanese RPG gamers in general?
Pureauthor
Member
Mockingbird said:
They already had a Virtual Boy on their hands. I think massive failures are something they're too unused to dealing with.
Pureauthor
Member
Sho_Nuff82 said:
Well, they've got HHRPGotY in Etrian Odyssey, and Console RPGotY with Persona 3, so...
Segata Sanshiro said:
Mm hmm. 200k would be a fine result, I think. The original sold 392k in Japan in 1996... we typically see franchise game sales drop from the first installment to the second (where they'll often stabilize), so even if this was a normal second game (and not a sequel following 12 years after the original), that'd be a pretty good result. 200k would make this a viable, healthy franchise in Japan, and Sega could use a few more of those.
Magicpaint said:
Right. For Namco's decision to move the series to this platform, and to justify the level of effort they've put into the game (and, in all likelihood, the level of marketing they're going to put into it), it needs to sell a whole lot better than that. It needs to sell on par with a real Tales game -- anything else would be a disaster. 400k minimum needed.
Sho_Nuff82 said:
We'll have to wait until all the games are released to see how "better" shakes out, but there are plenty of other RPG options available on platforms that are a lot more popular than the 360. That is, obviously (just look at ASH!) no guarantor of success... but it certainly helps.
NDS Final Fantasy IV - 900,000
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2 - 470.000
NDS Mario Party DS - 1,000,000
NDS Dragon Quest IV - 1.300.000
NDS Tales of Innocence - 500,000
PSP Minna no Golf Portable 2 - 320.000
PS3 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 - 280.000
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 175.000
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 - 750.000
PS2 SD Gundam Generation Spirits - 280.000
PS2 Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden - 280.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1,750,000
Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 500,000
Wii Wii Fit - 2,000,000
Wii NiGHTS - 350.000
X360 Lost Odyssey - 300.000
X360 Ace Combat 6 - 100.000
My predictions.
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2 - 470.000
NDS Mario Party DS - 1,000,000
NDS Dragon Quest IV - 1.300.000
NDS Tales of Innocence - 500,000
PSP Minna no Golf Portable 2 - 320.000
PS3 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 - 280.000
PS3 Gran Turismo 5 Prologue - 175.000
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 - 750.000
PS2 SD Gundam Generation Spirits - 280.000
PS2 Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden - 280.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1,750,000
Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 500,000
Wii Wii Fit - 2,000,000
Wii NiGHTS - 350.000
X360 Lost Odyssey - 300.000
X360 Ace Combat 6 - 100.000
My predictions.
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
I don't think even Namco believe their stance with ToI. Its just unbelievable.
Actually, scratch that, this is Namco, they believe what they say and they will get burned shipping a shit load of ToI copies. They are stupid enough for this and far more.
Actually, scratch that, this is Namco, they believe what they say and they will get burned shipping a shit load of ToI copies. They are stupid enough for this and far more.
200k isn't happening, period. Honestly, I'd say my estimate of 100k is probably pushing it a bit.ethelred said:
NiGHTS moved 400k on Saturn... but that was during SEGA's height in the consumer space on a platform where they held Nintendo level dominace. In those days Sakura Tasien could crack 500k and VF over a million... and now look at those franchises today. :/
Agreed, 200k would be tanking, no question. I think Tempest's giving the analysts cold feet though, I'd be floored if it sold that little... going up against FF4 probably isn't the best move though admittedly. :/ethelred said:
GTP selling one million is quite a stretch
the first prologue game on PS2 did sell one million but then again the userbase was quite different
you already are getting a GT demo on PSN (GTHD)
GTP on PS3 is a demo game you pay money for.. not sure how many people will digg that this time around
the first prologue game on PS2 did sell one million but then again the userbase was quite different
you already are getting a GT demo on PSN (GTHD)
GTP on PS3 is a demo game you pay money for.. not sure how many people will digg that this time around
Kurosaki Ichigo
Member
They are still brainstorming how many units they will sell, right now they are expecting each DS owner to pick enough copies to build themselves a 100m2 Tales house. Full of Stanh/Leon and Lloyd/Kratos posters too.jarrod said:
Well, that and the whole 'Next Brand new full-fledged Tales', 'reinventing old Tales model', 'taking Tales to the next step', 'DS the main platform for Tales series'...
PD: Btw (well not really in the way, just remembered this), I read somewhere that the Wii Fit package will be 4.4kg. Eh...I must have read it wrong, right?
charlequin
Banned
Phife Dawg said:
Sorry, I should have put the scare quotes in there. I mean it in the one GAF ironic sense of "casual-friendly Nintendo-branded title that sells like hotcakes made of gold," not the other GAF ironic sense of "thing I hate because it's destroying the industry."
charlequin
Banned
ethelred said:
Oh, sure. But I actually enjoy Mario party pretty well after about four beers and when my friends aren't whining because I can still beat them in all the minigames.
Magicpaint said:
Well, I expect it to be "overshadowed" in the sense that FFIV will sell dramatically and definitively way more than it does, though not in the sense that its sales growth is stunted as a result.
I agree with ethelred and Magicpaint: 200k LTD on Innocence? That'd be a disaster. If we see anything less than 350k retail orders and, like, 200k day-one sales I think we have to classify ToI as a complete bomb and expect to never see the series release on DS again.
The real average-level Tales benchmark is around 500k lifetime; Symphonia and Legendia did less (and are considered failures for it), while the last "real" Tales game, Abyss, put up more and seems to have been more or less a succcess. Even if Namco cuts it any slack for being on a handheld and/or burning off TotT's badwill, it's gonna need to get close to that number (450k, say) to have been worthwhile.
Maybe someone who's got their finger on the pulse can give us a better idea, but it certainly seems to me like ToI is at least getting pushed effectively; lots of screens and videos coming out, plenty of effort put into illustrating that it is in fact a full game and not an 8-hour abortion, lots of emphasis on the voice acting (always a big part of Tales' appeal.)
Magicpaint
Member
Yup.charlequin said:
charlequin said:
Yeah, I think should ToI bomb, Namco would HAVE to change their platform strategy, as I believe ToI is the real deal. If the DS userbase can't support it, they're best going elsewhere.
We've had two fully-fledged trailers, and the TVCM has gone air (I think). There are lots of videos on the official site, and every facet of the series charm (voice acting, battles, skits, anime) are being demonstrated there, fully. The info we've gotten from it has been satisfactory. It really seems like the real deal to me. What needs to come together is the cohesive design, but it doesn't seem to be glaringly lacking in anything, so far.charlequin said:
Mithos Yggdrasill
Banned
cvxfreak said:
Sounds all possible. Wii Fit and Mario Galaxy are just right. Maybe too much for Umbrella Chronicles. And X360's games.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Wii really needs a Brain Age. Wii Sports and Play honestly do not grab my attention as much as Brain Age does.
charlequin
Banned
Magicpaint said:
Did we have any specific reason to think that Legendia was going to be missing something before it launched? That's my only concern here, although Alpha Dream are demonstrably more capable than whatever Team Whoever The Fuck Is In the Back Room On Third Shift made Legendia.
It does seem like the marketing has firmly demonstrated that ToI is a real game and focused on the elements that needed focus to prove it wasn't a TotT redux, at least, so that's a good sign for the game's reception.