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[cvxfreak]

From the latest issue, just glancing at a couple pages. Might be of some interest to Sales-Age. There are two analysts (Sakurai and Murakami), and they provide various reasons for their predictions (series history, hype, platform popularity), but here are the numbers expected. They also talk about games like MGS4, but provide no numbers.

Nintendo DS

Final Fantasy IV
S: 1,200,000
M: 1,000,000

Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Fuketsu no Grimoire
S: 600,000
M: 500,000

Mario Party DS
S: 1,000,000
M: 1,200,000

PSP

Minna no Golf Portable 2
S: 500,000 - 600,000
M: 500,000

PS3

Shin Sangoku Musou 5
S: 300,000
M: 300,000

PS2

World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008
S: 900,000 - 1,000,000

SD Gundam Generation Spirits
S: 400,000 - 500,000
M: 300,000

Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden
S: 400,000 - 500,000
M: 300,000

Wii

Super Mario Galaxy
S: 1,500,000 - 2,000,000
M: 1,000,000+

Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles
S: 500,000 - 600,000
M: 500,000

Wii Fit
S: 2,000,000 - 2,500,000
M: 1,500,000+

Xbox 360

Lost Odyssey
S: 200,000 - 300,000

Ace Combat 6
S: 100,000 - 150,000

 

[Region-FreeWii]

Wii Fit, holy crap!

 

[KillerNapkin]

so basically MS and Sony get to eat whatever falls from Nintendo's massive, planet eating mouth


great : /

 

[VOOK]

Serious question, are they going to be able to make enough Wii Fit boards?

 

[Evlar]

Look at those Wii numbers...

 

[LiquidSwords]

Conservative for Mario? It comes out there two weeks earlier, right?

And is GT5 inestimatable?

 

[TheKingsCrown]

Wii Fit, holy crap!

:lol I literally laughed my ass off when I saw that number

 

[Jonnyram]

Serious question, are they going to be able to make enough Wii Fit boards?

No way. I expect serious shortages, and massive lines on day one. That's probably why they're releasing it on a Saturday Hope I can get a preorder in somewhere.

 

[Defuser]

Final Fantasy IV
S: 1,200,000
M: 1,000,000

I don't believe.....

 

[gconsole]

Will biohazard house of dead version sale that many?

 

[ethelred]

Let's see...

I can't see Umbrella Chronicles selling nearly that well, sorry to say. It shoul do decently, but I'd be quite surprised if it burned up the sales charts like they're predicting.

Their predictions about match mine for FFT A2. I don't see Mario Party DS selling so well, though. If Lost Odyssey hits 300k, I'd be ecstatic with that. The FFIVr prediction is about right in line with what the game would need to do, I think, to be considered a general success.

I don't believe.....

I'm sure you don't.

 

[pilonv1]

Lost Odyssey to outdo Blue Dragon?

 

[jj984jj]

I don't believe.....

The world is ending, I agree with Defuser, at least not before the end of the year. No DQIV expectations?

Acutally I think they're overestimating everything except Musou 5.

 

[Kodiak]

my immense loathing for predictions deepens.

 

[gconsole]

Let's see...

I can't see Umbrella Chronicles selling nearly that well, sorry to say. It shoul do decently, but I'd be quite surprised if it burned up the sales charts like they're predicting.

Their predictions about match mine for FFT A2. I don't see Mario Party DS selling so well, though. If Lost Odyssey hits 300k, I'd be ecstatic with that. The FFIVr prediction is about right in line with what the game would need to do, I think, to be considered a general success.



I'm sure you don't.

Yeah, I think GAF should be the source for japan sale prediction rather than japanese journalist from japanese videogame Bible Famitsu.

 

[cvxfreak]

I'll try to summarize what they said about some of the games, but they're rough and basic translations, so hopefully someone does a better job later on.

Final Fantasy IV: based on the performance of FFIII + DS popularity
Tactics A2: based on popularity of FFTA
Mario Party DS: based on popularity of MP8
Tales of Innocence: will be overshadowed by FFIV
Layton 2: should be more popular than the first
Minna no Golf Portable 2: based on popularity of first + series in general
GT5: should be the PS3's first killer ap
WE2008: based on series' history
SD Gundam PSP: based on series' history
Super Robot OG: based on series' history
Sangoku Musou 5: popular but restricted by PS3's small userbase
Mario Galaxy: based on Mario brand's power and Wii users
Umbrella Chronicles: series history + Wii Zapper expected to boost popularity
Wii Fit: based on Wii Sports + Wii users
Lost Odyssey: based on Blue Dragon and being the 360's biggest hit for 2007
AC6: 360 will limit it compared to PS2 versions

 

[Dalthien]

Nintendo DS

Mario Party DS
S: 1,000,000
M: 1,200,000

Maybe I'm way off, but these numbers seem extremely high. Mario Party Advance sold well below the home-console iterations.

PS3

Shin Sangoku Musou 5
S: 300,000
M: 300,000

This would be another high profile series with a disastrous drop in sales on the PS3. The white PS3 might help push these numbers up a bit.

Wii

Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles
S: 500,000 - 600,000
M: 500,000

Didn't Capcom only project 600k worldwide for this game. These numbers would be amazing for Japan only.

Wii

Wii Fit
S: 2,000,000 - 2,500,000
M: 1,500,000+

I'm really interested to see how this performs. I could see it topping out at a few hundred thousand, or going on to become the next Wii Sports, which is obviously what these analysts believe.

 

[Vinnk]

Mario seems a but low to me, some of the others a bit high. Did they give any reasoning for these numbers?

 

[Kobun Heat]

No way. I expect serious shortages, and massive lines on day one. That's probably why they're releasing it on a Saturday Hope I can get a preorder in somewhere.

While I also expect shortages, Miyamoto said at E3 that they were already manufacturing the Wii Fit boards. That's the middle of July. They've been stocking up for a good long while.

 

[Evlar]

Mmm. I think his Lost Odyssey prediction is optimistic, along with RE:UC. The Wii Fit prediction is outrageous but who the hell knows? And is that the only notable PS3 release left?

 

[Avrum]

I really hope RE:UC does as well as they are hoping there, especially with Capcom basing further support of similar titles on how the RE franchise does on Wii. RE4 has done exceptionally well, leaving RE:UC to drive the point home.

Here's to hoping for the best.

And hawt damn at WiiFit. I can't wait until the charts supporting actual data for this thing comes through. Orville Redenbacher for all on that day.

 

[Sir Alemeth]

I seriously hope Galaxy does better than Wii Fit, but who am I kidding...

 

[mutsu]

While I also expect shortages, Miyamoto said at E3 that they were already manufacturing the Wii Fit boards. That's the middle of July. They've been stocking up for a good long while.

Hope the thing tanks

Spoiler

, not

.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I seriously hope Galaxy does better than Wii Fit, but who am I kidding...

Why one or the other? TP and Wii Sports showed the Wii can support both kinds of userbases.

 

[Tristam]

Why one or the other? TP and Wii Sports showed the Wii can support both kinds of userbases.

Wii Fit, whether you believe it belongs in Life & Home magazine or in EGM, is probably going to be a decent piece of software, but let's be honest with ourselves: Super Mario Galaxy is going to be about eleventy billion times better. I always like to see the superior title sell more. Plus, it sends a nice message to Nintendo.

 

[ethelred]

Why one or the other?

You are part of the problem.

 

[Darkman M]

Why one or the other? TP and Wii Sports showed the Wii can support both kinds of userbases.

Because mario is an actual game?

 

[Cruceh]

At least it didn't take long for that non-game bullshit to come up again.

 

[mutsu]

Wii Fit, whether you believe it belongs in Life & Home magazine or in EGM, is probably going to be a decent piece of software, but let's be honest with ourselves: Super Mario Galaxy is going to be about eleventy billion times better. I always like to see the superior title sell more. Plus, it sends a nice message to Nintendo.

The message from Nintendo to everyone is that they are expanding the business, and they will cater for both gamers and non-gamers.

Wii Fit selling gazillion copies would not make them stop making the next Mario game.

Besides, I think anyone buying Wii Fit would likely to also try Mario Galaxy also.

 

[Darkman M]

At least it didn't take long for that non-game bullshit to come up again.

Why is it bullshit? It's the truth just face it, i have a Wii and i am contempt with what it is.

 

[Rancid Mildew]

I hope FFIV meets or exceeds those expectations. It was an excellent game and I regret selling my copy. The remake is looks amazing.

I'm not feeling too good about RE:UC as a game based on the videos I've seen but as long as success means more ambitious RE projects using RE4's control scheme, I welcome it with open arms.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

Why is it bullshit? It's the truth just face it, i have a Wii and i am contempt with what it is.

People want it to be a 360. Naive selfsih gamers that is. I too accept the Wii for what it is and am happy.

 

[charlequin]

300k is a very generous top number for Lost Odyssey. I think we'd have to consider it (relatively speaking) a runaway hit if it put up those kind of sales.

:lol @ you guys still doom-and-glooming on FFIV, especially as the marketing campaign keeps rolling out and the game continues to look amazing.

I can't disagree with most of these numbers, though I do think some are overestimated. I expect 500k for FFTA2. Umbrella Chronicles will do well but not that well... maybe 400k? I also don't specifically think Mario Party DS will hit 1.2 mil, but it's a non-game being released on Japanese Videogame Market Jesus, so who knows what it'll actually do in the end.

 

[Tristam]

The message from Nintendo to everyone is that they are expanding the business, and they will cater for both gamers and non-gamers.

Wii Fit selling gazillion copies would not make them stop making the next Mario game.

Besides, I think anyone buying Wii Fit would likely to also try Mario Galaxy also.

In an ideal world, Super Mario Galaxy would serve to expand the business.

True, it won't stop Nintendo from making the next Mario game. It won't stop them from making the next Zelda game. But I *do* fear that some of the awesome arcade-style Nintendo games will get the boot in favor of Wii [subtitle] games. F-Zero X remains my favorite racer ever, and I adored 1080 and Starfox 64.

Like I said, stuff that comes out of any one of EAD's groups *probably* won't be bad. Wii Sports was decent. Wii Fit will probably be decent. They just ain't my cup of tea, so I'm always going to prefer that the "gamer" game sell better.

 

[Darkman M]

300k is a very generous top number for Lost Odyssey. I think we'd have to consider it (relatively speaking) a runaway hit if it put up those kind of sales.

:lol @ you guys still doom-and-glooming on FFIV, especially as the marketing campaign keeps rolling out and the game continues to look amazing.

I can't disagree with most of these numbers, though I do think some are overestimated. I expect 500k for FFTA2. Umbrella Chronicles will do well but not that well... maybe 400k? I also don't specifically think Mario Party DS will hit 1.2 mil, but it's a non-game being released on Japanese Videogame Market Jesus, so who knows what it'll actually do in the end.

That would make me happy, i figure the game will do much better in the states.

 

[Jonnyram]

GT5: should be the PS3's first killer ap

It's sad that the PS3's first killer app is basically a demo you have to pay for :/

 

[Yoboman]

Give Wii Fit's numbers to Galaxy and Ace Combat 6's numbers to Wii Fit, and I'll be happy

 

[Yoboman]

It's sad that the PS3's first killer app is basically a demo you have to pay for :/

It's got enough content to be a game on its own, and a lot of that content will be unique to the game and won't even appear in GT5. Don't slap it down merely as a demo

 

[rakka]

Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles
S: 500,000 - 600,000
M: 500,000

really?

 

[charlequin]

That would make me happy, i figure the game will do much better in the states.

Based on... what? The stunning success of Blue Dragon? The hordes of slathering jRPG fanboys that make up the X360 userbase? The wild and uncontrollable popularity of Vagabond™-based merchandise?

 

[Jonnyram]

It's got enough content to be a game on its own, and a lot of that content will be unique to the game and won't even appear in GT5. Don't slap it down merely as a demo

:lol

The full game is GT5. Prologue is a part of that. It's a demo. Stop living in denial.
"oh but it's got more cars than so-and-so mimimimimi it's got more courses than so-and-so mimimimimi." It's still a subset of the final game, and you are going to pay twice. They should just make GT5 and GT6 if they are both full games.

 

[ivysaur12]

300k is a very generous top number for Lost Odyssey. I think we'd have to consider it (relatively speaking) a runaway hit if it put up those kind of sales.

:lol @ you guys still doom-and-glooming on FFIV, especially as the marketing campaign keeps rolling out and the game continues to look amazing.

I can't disagree with most of these numbers, though I do think some are overestimated. I expect 500k for FFTA2. Umbrella Chronicles will do well but not that well... maybe 400k? I also don't specifically think Mario Party DS will hit 1.2 mil, but it's a non-game being released on Japanese Videogame Market Jesus, so who knows what it'll actually do in the end.

What?

 

[Chumly]

The Wii estimates look incredible high except SMG. I cant see either Wii Fit or RE:UC selling that much.

 

[ivysaur12]

The Wii estimates look incredible high except SMG. I cant see either Wii Fit or RE:UC selling that much.

RE:UC maybe to high, but WiiFit? Have you seen how much WiiSports and WiiPlay sold? WiiFit will own Japan. Nintendo could release WiiShit and it'd still sell over a million.

 

[Lobster]

really?

I hope so. But 300k LTD is probably more reasonable. RE was never too big a franchise in Japan..a lightgun game should be even smaller.

 

[Darkman M]

Based on... what? The stunning success of Blue Dragon? The hordes of slathering jRPG fanboys that make up the X360 userbase? The wild and uncontrollable popularity of Vagabond™-based merchandise?

1.Well for one the games art and style is more of an North American flavor.
2. Theres like 400k 360's in japan and like what 10 million or so here?
3. There are quite a few ps2 converters to the 360.

Don't assume every360 owner just plays shooters, it's not nice to sterotype ok?

Anymore questions?

 

[rakka]

RE:UC maybe to high, but WiiFit? Have you seen how much WiiSports and WiiPlay sold? WiiFit will own Japan. Nintendo could release WiiShit and it'd still sell over a million.

do we know how much it's going to cost? (wii fit)

 

[davepoobond]

2.5 million of those stupid balance boards?

the balance board is practically more technology-intensive than the Wii itself, and they can barely make those fast enough.

 

[Troidal]

RE:UC maybe to high, but WiiFit? Have you seen how much WiiSports and WiiPlay sold? WiiFit will own Japan. Nintendo could release WiiShit and it'd still sell over a million.

But there aren't that many fat Japanese people. I don't get the WiiFit craze

 

[charlequin]

1.Well for one the games art and style is more of an North American flavor.

The art and style... that are created by a famous Japanese manga artist?

2. Theres like 400k 360's in japan and like what 10 million or so here?
3. There are quite a few ps2 converters to the 360.

Don't assume every360 owner just plays shooters, it's not nice to sterotype ok?

So.... why did Blue Dragon do so badly in the US, again? I mean, if all of those beautiful unique snowflakes who upgraded their PS2s to 360s are chomping at the bit for a jRPG with high production values.