• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Famitsu Analysts' Sales Expectations for Holidays

Tristam said:
In an ideal world, Super Mario Galaxy would serve to expand the business.

True, it won't stop Nintendo from making the next Mario game. It won't stop them from making the next Zelda game. But I *do* fear that some of the awesome arcade-style Nintendo games will get the boot in favor of Wii [subtitle] games. F-Zero X remains my favorite racer ever, and I adored 1080 and Starfox 64.

Like I said, stuff that comes out of any one of EAD's groups *probably* won't be bad. Wii Sports was decent. Wii Fit will probably be decent. They just ain't my cup of tea, so I'm always going to prefer that the "gamer" game sell better.
Wii wouldn't be where it is now thanks to nongames. Whether that's a good thing or not is a matter of opinion, of course.
 

Chumly

Member
Troidal said:
But there aren't that many fat Japanese people. I don't get the WiiFit craze :p
Honestly I dont know any "fat" people that want to get WiiFit. The only people who I know who are interested in the game right now is people who actually work out in the gym but want to use WiiFit for fun. So im sure the Japanese will like it just fine even though there not fat like america.
 

Gaborn

Member
Troidal said:
But there aren't that many fat Japanese people. I don't get the WiiFit craze :p

Many fat people don't care about their weight enough to go out of their way to make lifestyle changes and get thinner. Many thin people want to avoid getting fat and will go out of their way to make sure it doesn't happen.
 

Darkman M

Member
charlequin said:
The art and style... that are created by a famous Japanese manga artist?



So.... why did Blue Dragon do so badly in the US, again? I mean, if all of those beautiful unique snowflakes who upgraded their PS2s to 360s are chomping at the bit for a jRPG with high production values.

You do realize the game is using the unreal engine dont you?

Did you not see the usa reviews?
The art turned alot of north Americans off, which is a favorite of Japaneses gamers being it looks just lie Dragon Quest?

And why the hell are you upset? Go play that shitty rpg in your AV and cool down ok?
 

Chumly

Member
Gaborn said:
Many fat people don't care about their weight enough to go out of their way to make lifestyle changes and get thinner. Many thin people want to avoid getting fat and will go out of their way to make sure it doesn't happen.
Exactly. From my experience its the fat people that make fun of WiiFit and the thin people who are actually interested in the game.
 

Bo130

Member
Umbrella Chronicles seem way to high, would be surprised to see it do that well.

Do we have anything from previous years to see how competent these analysts are?
 

Arde5643

Member
Chumly said:
Exactly. From my experience its the fat people who will buy WiiFit secretly in an attempt for quick painless diet that make fun of WiiFit and the thin people who are actually interested in the game.

Fixed. :)
 
Darkman M said:
You do realize the game is using the unreal engine dont you?

I also hear that in the game you fight aliens and fire a big gun and look at a lot of juice!

And why the hell are you upset? Go play that shitty rpg in your AV and cool down ok?

Upset? Me? I'm actually playing Lufia right now, but thanks for looking out for my well being!
 

Darkman M

Member
charlequin[B said:
]I also hear that in the game you fight aliens and fire a big gun and look at a lot of juice!
charlequin[B said:
Upset? Me? I'm actually playing Lufia right now, but thanks for looking out for my well being!
[/B]

No shit, thats why i said the game had an more North American vibe, glad you figured it out.


Glad i could help have a nice day.
 

Lobster

Banned
Bo130 said:
Umbrella Chronicles seem way to high, would be surprised to see it do that well.

Do we have anything from previous years to see how competent these analysts are?

Isn't it coming around near Christmas aswell? Do games get huge bumps during Christmas or is that just a rest of the world thing? If so..Maybe..just maybe.
 

ethelred

Member
Darkman M said:



No shit, thats why i said the game had an more North American vibe, glad you figured it out.


Glad i could help have a nice day.

I'm feeling somewhat charitable today, so a piece of friendly advice: please stop. You are humiliating yourself.
 

Darkman M

Member
ethelred said:
I'm feeling somewhat charitable today, so a piece of friendly advice: please stop. You are humiliating yourself.


Thanks for the advice, but im behind a big computer monitor and no one knows my true identity so i think i can deal with the 'humiliation' just fine. :lol
 
Aiming pretty high for RE:UC, MP DS and LO there.

charlequin said:
I can't disagree with most of these numbers, though I do think some are overestimated. I expect 500k for FFTA2. Umbrella Chronicles will do well but not that well... maybe 400k? I also don't specifically think Mario Party DS will hit 1.2 mil, but it's a non-game being released on Japanese Videogame Market Jesus, so who knows what it'll actually do in the end.
MP is a non-game as well now? Oh boy this is becoming awesome :lol .

Troidal said:
But there aren't that many fat Japanese people. I don't get the WiiFit craze :p
30% of the male japanese population were overweight in 2005 (24.6% for the female population). The awareness is there.

No comparison with the US though, where 62% of all adults are overweight.
 
I think there are good chances for RE:UC to reach (at least) 500k, just looking at amazon.jp preorders, bundle is easily sold-out every week and the normal version has solid legs in the chart, considering it's one month before the release.
Let's see how many stocks Capcom will put on the market on first release...
 

Yoboman

Gold Member
Jonnyram said:
:lol

The full game is GT5. Prologue is a part of that. It's a demo. Stop living in denial.
"oh but it's got more cars than so-and-so mimimimimi it's got more courses than so-and-so mimimimimi." It's still a subset of the final game, and you are going to pay twice. They should just make GT5 and GT6 if they are both full games.
Yeah, it's a demo with enough content to warrant a price tag. You buy it and you get a significant value for your dollar, it's not as though you're paying for 4 cars and a single track, now is it?
 

Tristam

Member
Phife Dawg said:
Aiming pretty high for RE:UC, MP DS and LO there.


MP is a non-game as well now? Oh boy this is becoming awesome :lol .


30% of the male japanese population were overweight in 2005 (24.6% for the female population). The awareness is there.

No comparison with the US though, where 62% of all adults are overweight.

Holy shit, I had no idea it was nearly 2/3 in the U.S. I mean, it doesn't account for people who are technically overweight but not "overfat," like bodybuilders, but they're obviously a very small minority...
 

mutsu

Member
Yoboman said:
Yeah, it's a demo with enough content to warrant a price tag. You buy it and you get a significant value for your dollar, it's not as though you're paying for 4 cars and a single track, now is it?

True, but still doesn't stop the fact that it is a way to rip money off people.
 

DCharlie

Banned
huh? 29 % of Japanese men are obese?

err... i`m going to take a wild guess that the Japanese definition of "obese" is a lot different to the US definition.

Infact, even the overweight figure looks insanely wrong. But hey! they are the department of whatever, so i`m sure they have better study methods than my anecdotal evidence of knowing not a single obese japanese person. Hell, i can`t think of many japanese people who are "overweight" either :/
 
Hi, I'm K and I'm pessimistic compared to S and M :lol

NDS Final Fantasy IV - 850.000
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Fuketsu no Grimoire - 450.000
NDS Mario Party DS - 650.000
PSP Minna no Golf Portable 2 - 400.000
PS3 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 - 250.000
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 - 700.000
PS2 SD Gundam Generation Spirits - 250.000
PS2 Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden - 150.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1.500.000 (no counting 2008)
Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 150.000
Wii Wii Fit - 1.250.000 (not counting 2008)
X360 Lost Odyssey - 200.000
X360 Ace Combat 6 - 75.000
 

Hunahan

Banned
I just hope Lost Odyssey is actually good enough to warrant me wanting it to sell really well...


...but maybe that's getting ahead of things, eh....
 
DCharlie said:
huh? 29 % of Japanese men are obese?

err... i`m going to take a wild guess that the Japanese definition of "obese" is a lot different to the US definition.

Infact, even the overweight figure looks insanely wrong. But hey! they are the department of whatever, so i`m sure they have better study methods than my anecdotal evidence of knowing not a single obese japanese person. Hell, i can`t think of many japanese people who are "overweight" either :/
The other link was stating 30 pounds over healthy weight. That can't be true for the japanese numbers though since they weigh comparatively less.

I think it's just overweight. And being overweight doesn't neccessarily mean being so fat you'd notice on first glance.

Anyways I think there's a market for this, even in Japan as the public awareness is there and people care about loosing weight/not getting fat.
 

CANLI

Member
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Hi, I'm K and I'm pessimistic compared to S and M :lol

NDS Final Fantasy IV - 850.000
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Fuketsu no Grimoire - 450.000
NDS Mario Party DS - 650.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1.500.000 (no counting 2008)
Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 150.000
Wii Wii Fit - 1.250.000 (not counting 2008)
X360 Lost Odyssey - 200.000

I'm +- ok with all of your numbers.
I'm still sure that FF IV will be a million seller there.
The difference between Mario Party gba and DS is really big: graphics; great attrictive mini-games with stylus, Multiplayer, cool graphics for DS and Online (Japanese people love Online). When you see Itadaki Street Mario-DQ selling between 300-400k and it's not a holiday season, we can predict that this FIRST Mario Party DS will sell min. 800-900 k.
Anyway, I'm expecting great sales of DS games like Mario Kart DS, BT series, NSMB, Pokemon, Animal Crossing, Layton series and English Training for these holidays.

Wii Fit numbers from Famitsu are too big. We will see how it will turn but again, Nintendo will be the big winner in Japan again.
 
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Hi, I'm K and I'm pessimistic compared to S and M :lol

NDS Final Fantasy IV - 850.000
NDS Final Fantasy Tactics A2: Fuketsu no Grimoire - 450.000
NDS Mario Party DS - 650.000
PSP Minna no Golf Portable 2 - 400.000
PS3 Shin Sangoku Musou 5 - 250.000
PS2 World Soccer Winning Eleven 2008 - 700.000
PS2 SD Gundam Generation Spirits - 250.000
PS2 Super Robot Wars OG Gaiden - 150.000
Wii Super Mario Galaxy - 1.500.000 (no counting 2008)
Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 150.000
Wii Wii Fit - 1.250.000 (not counting 2008)
X360 Lost Odyssey - 200.000
X360 Ace Combat 6 - 75.000
Pretty reasonable but Wii Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles - 150.000 is aiming a tad low, no? RE4 Wii sold over 100.000. I know it's a lightgun game and everything. But it certainly appeals to fans of the series who like the story. 250k should be do-able LTD.
 

icecream

Public Health Threat
charlequin said:
So.... why did Blue Dragon do so badly in the US, again?
Until September's NPD is out, no one can really say how Blue Dragon did, since it released at the end of August's NPD.

That being said, Famitsu's analysts are basically saying LO will roughly double BD's current total sales... I'm expecting it to do more of the same.
 
Ha ha, Umbrella Chronicles won't even come close to those numbers. Their predictions seem a bit eh to me.

Farore said:
Eh, ToR had to deal with stuff like DQVIII and MGS3, and TotA had to fight with KH2...I think it'll be fine; the Tales games can't be so easily overshadowed (at least I'm assuming ToI will be on par with those two games, quality-wise and marketing-wise). It's also coming out before FFIV, which should be to its advantage.
 
cvxfreak said:
The Biohazard UC Wii Zapper pack is #2 on the top 100 for Amazon JP.

it has been out of stock for 2 weeks...

and Wii system came back on top10, probably due to Wii Fit preorders started today

NiGHTS always on top25


seems like it's time for japanese people to clean up their Wii's from dust
 

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
WiiFit is too high, it will do well enough(maybe a million lifetime) but it's an expensive new game. Besides, whatever it does in Japan is nothing compared to what it will do in the western world.
 

909er

Member
charlequin said:
The art and style... that are created by a famous Japanese manga artist?



So.... why did Blue Dragon do so badly in the US, again? I mean, if all of those beautiful unique snowflakes who upgraded their PS2s to 360s are chomping at the bit for a jRPG with high production values.

Well, Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey were meant to be not so subtle answers(substitutes) for Dragon Quest and Final Fantasy for the 360 owners. Blue Dragon is especially geared toward Dragon Quest. Hell, it practically is one with another name. We don't know how well it did in the US, but if it did bad you can bet it's because it was aimed squarely, almost solely, at the Japanese. Dragon Quest is like Halo in Japan, and bigger than Final Fantasy. And for the 360, it did well, something like 200,000 sold. But you look at the popularity of Dragon Quest games in America and compare it with Final Fantasy games, there's no competition. FF stomps DQ into the ground over here. Lost Odyssey represents the first high budget Final Fantasy esque JRPG on the 360. And for what it's worth, it's being made by the father of Final Fantasy. Phenomenal sales of Oblivion show there is an RPG demand on the 360, and with the right marketing games similar to Lost Odyssey have been very successful here in the past.
 

Luckyman

Banned
cvxfreak said:
Biohazard Umbrella Chronicles
S: 500,000 - 600,000
M: 500,000

Lost Odyssey
S: 200,000 - 300,000

Ace Combat 6
S: 100,000 - 150,000

In Japan this holiday season? Are they high or what?
 

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
Interesting predictions, FF IV will get to a mil like FFIII, but it'll stagger over the line like its stablemate, Mario Party DS should reach target also.

As for the Wii games, SMG seems about right, 2mil will be a great result for Nintendo, which only leaves Wii Fit, it'll either tank, or become the next Wii Sports, and all signs are pointing to Gigaton, especially if it + wii becomes the "hot property" of the holiday season, in which case the estimates may prove a bit conservative in the end, oh and the UC predictions are very high, if Capcom reaches those figures in Japan alone they will be ecstatic.

Finally, the predictions show the gulf between Wii, PS3 and 360 in Japan, it's truly night and day.
 

Innotech

Banned
I only weigh 117 pounds (5'7") but Im definitely buying wii Fit. My whole family could use this device and my mom and brother especially are excercise nuts.
 
Top Bottom