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Official June 2007 NPD Prediction Thread

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D

donny2112

Member
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 4 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, July 18th. This is to, hopefully, close entries before the Canadian numbers can come in. If the Canadian numbers come in before that time, the deadline will not change for this month. Next month's deadline would be earlier, though. ;)

NPD Release: July 23rd @ 4:00 p.m. EDT (thread posted around 6:30 p.m. EDT)
NPD Coverage: June 3 - July 7 (5 weeks)


May 2007 Results (4-week month) - thanks to sonycowboy

sonycowboy said:
Hardware

[NDS] 423,150
[WII] 338,278
[PSP] 221,120
[PS2] 187,765
[360] 154,932
[PS3] 81,604
[GBA] 80,554
[NGC] 10,728


Software
331k NDS POKEMON DIAMOND VERSION
314k WII MARIO PARTY 8
249k PS2 SPIDER-MAN 3
238k NDS POKEMON PEARL VERSION
227k WII PLAY W/ REMOTE
217k 360 FORZA MOTORSPORT 2
184k 360 GUITAR HERO 2 W/ GUITAR
140k 360 SPIDER-MAN 3
138k 360 COMMAND & CONQUER 3: TIBERIUM WARS
131k PS2 GUITAR HERO 2 W/GUITAR

11 WII SUPER PAPER MARIO Nintendo
12 360 CRACKDOWN Microsoft
13 PS3 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
14 WII LEGEND OF ZELDA: TWILIGHT PRINCESS Nintendo
15 WII SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
16 360 SHADOWRUN Microsoft
17 PS3 SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
18 PS2 MLB '07: THE SHOW Sony
19 360 MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL 2K7 Take 2 Interactive
20 360 GEARS OF WAR Microsoft
21 NDS NEW SUPER MARIO BROS Nintendo
22 NDS SPIDER-MAN 3 Activision
23 360 PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: AT WORLD'S END Disney
24 PS2 GOD OF W AR II Sony
25 360 TOM CLANCY'S RAINBOW SIX: VEGAS Ubi Soft
Click to expand...

Potentially significant releases from June 3 - July 7

NDS - DS Browser (6/4), Transformers (6/12,19), Fantastic Four (6/15), SimCity DS (6/19), Harry Potter (6/25)
WII - BBA: Wii Degree (6/11), Fantastic Four (6/15), RE4: Wii (6/19), Harry Potter (6/25), Pokemon Battle Revolution (6/25), Transformers (6/26)
PS2 - Tomb Raider: Anniversary (6/5), Fantastic Four (6/15), Harry Potter (6/25), Transformers (6/26)
360 - Call of Juarez (6/5), Tenchu Z (6/12), DiRT (6/19), The Darkness (6/25), Harry Potter (6/25), Transformers (6/25)
PSP - Shrek the Third (6/5), Rainbox Six: Vegas (6/12), Transformers (6/19), Harry Potter (6/25), Final Fantasy (6/26)
PS3 - Fantastic Four (6/15), The Darkness (6/25), Harry Potter (6/25), Rainbow Six: Vegas (6/26), Transformers (6/26), Ninja Gaiden: Sigma (7/3)



Japanese Sales June 4 - July 8 - for comparison

NDS - 696,596
WII - 344,830
PSP - 162,305
PS2 - 65,469
PS3 - 52,443
360 - 19,009
GBA - 3,253



Don't forget to use the proper format when posting predictions.

Cheesemeister said:
Post formatting guidelines for the parser...

List numeric values following system tags on their own lines in a post. All non-numeric characters following the tag will be stripped out, save for the first instance of the letter K in either upper or lower-case, which will be replaced with 3 zeroes. Make predictions by the set deadline, at which point the parser will be run. If a given poster has more than one post with predictions, guesses in subsequent posts will override previous guesses. By the same token, subsequent guesses on the same system within a given post will overwrite previous guesses.

Some examples of valid input follow, but do at least keep them readable for your fellow forum-goers.

[PS2] 123,456
[PSP] 123456
[PS3] 123K
[360] 123k - because of Halo 3 anticipation
[GBA]12 3 Totakeke
[NGC] 1 2 3 4 5 6
[NDS] 123456 (You will say WOW.)
[WII] 123'456

Invalid input:

Sony PlayStation 2: 123,455 plus one
PS Three - 123KK
Weeeeee ~ one hundred twenty-three thousand kajillion units!!!1lol
...

Any lines without valid input, i.e. your comments, will be ignored. Questions, comments?
Click to expand...

Use integers only so no decimal points. Also, put any software predictions into "quote" tags so they won't be mistaken as hardware predictions.

Cheesemeister,
Please don't post the GAF aggregate until after the prediction deadline. The GAF aggregate kicked almost everyone's butt last month. :lol
 
T

Threi

notag
[NDS] 430,150
[WII] 360,278
[PSP] 250,120
[PS2] 185,765
[360] 160,932
[PS3] 109,604
[GBA] 80,554
[NGC] 12,728

*edit* changed for 5-week month
 
D

donny2112

Member
sonycowboy mentioned in last month's prediction thread that he'd like to have software predictions this month. With that in mind, I thought we'd start with a subset of his former rules. This will be separate from the hardware predictions and will not count toward the hardware rankings.

Required Software Predictions
1) Top 10 overall w/units (must pick per sku, not combining multi-platform)
2) Overall Software Sales for the month in dollars

Point System
1) 10 points for each title at correct ordinal position in your overall top 10 (-1 for each position off, minimum of 0 points). Maximum points: 100
2) 10 points * (percentage of correct units for each title, anything over 100% difference = 0 points) in your overall top 10. Maximum points: 100
3) 20 points * (percentage of correct overall software sales in dollars, anything over 100% difference = 0 points). Maximum points: 20
 
F

Firesprite121984

Unconfirmed Member
[DS] 450,000
[Wii] 370,000
[PSP] 240,000
[PS2] 190,000
[360] 165,000
[GBA] 110,000
[PS3] 100,000
[GCN] 15,000
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
[NDS] 400,000
[WII] 320,000
[PSP] 200,000
[PS2] 175,000
[360] 140,000
[PS3] 80,000
[GBA] 80,000
[NGC] 10,000

little bit lower than last month.
 
C

Cheesemeister

Member
donny2112 said:
Cheesemeister,
Please don't post the GAF aggregate until after the prediction deadline. The GAF aggregate kicked almost everyone's butt last month. :lol
Click to expand...

Let's use that word now.

Oh, and I don't plan on posting any preliminary collections of numbers this time 'round. Last time it was done largely for verification purposes in developing the parser. Now I'll just generate the List of Shame, haha.
 
W

Wyndstryker

Member
[NDS] 500,000
[WII] 410,000
[PSP] 225,000
[PS2] 132,000
[360] 148,000
[PS3] 99,000
[GBA] 76,000
[NGC] 8,500

-Fixed for 5 weekage.
 
H

Hcoregamer00

The 'H' stands for hentai.
[NDS] 500,000
[WII] 350,000
[PSP] 220,000
[PS2] 200,000
[360] 180,000
[PS3] 105,000
[GBA] 100,000
[NGC] 12,000

I am keeping it nice and simple.
 
H

Heidir

Member
[NDS] 455,100
[WII] 370,378
[PSP] 251,120
[PS2] 210,007
[360] 183,323
[PS3] 99,999
[GBA] 97,114
[NGC] 10,728
 
D

donny2112

Member
Software Predictions:

Total SW Dollars: $450 million

1. WII Mario Party 8 290K
2. WII Play w/Remote 250K
3. WII Resident Evil 4: Wii Edition 215K
4. NDS Pokemon Diamond 210K
5. WII Pokemon Battle Revolution 205K
6. 360 Forza 2 180K
7. NDS Pokemon Pearl 150K
8. PS2 Guitar Hero 2 w/Guitar 140K
9. PS2 Tomb Raider: Anniversary 135K
10. WII Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree 120K

360 DiRT 100K
PS2 Harry Potter 100K
PS3 Ninja Gaiden: Sigma 85K
Click to expand...

Honestly, I didn't realize until I ordered them that 4 of the top 5 were Wii games. :lol
 
E

evlcookie

but ever so delicious
[NDS] 408,350
[Wii] 320,738
[PSP] 118,650
[PS2] 183,820
[360] 165,380
[PS3] 84,230
[GBA] 78,900
[NGS] 8,540
 
U

USD

Member
[NDS] 500,000
[WII] 410,000
[PSP] 260,000
[PS2] 220,000
[360] 190,000
[PS3] 100,000
[GBA] 95,000
[GCN] 11,000

EDIT: Didn't know it was a 5-week month.
 
Y

Ydahs

Member
[NDS] 480,000
[WII] 360,000
[PSP] 230,000
[PS2] 170,000
[360] 180,000
[PS3] 85,000
[GBA] 70,000
[NGC] 7,000
 
S

Snaku

Banned
[NDS] 500,000
[WII] 390,000
[PSP] 220,000
[PS2] 200,000
[360] 180,000
[PS3] 110,000
[GBA] 90,000
[NGC] 10,000
 
A

AniHawk

Member
[NDS] 460,000
[WII] 375,000
[PSP] 250,000
[360] 200,000
[PS2] 200,000
[PS3] 130,000
[GBA] 95,000
[NGC] 9,000

RE4 > 120k.

Didn't know it was a five week month.
 
L

Linkup

Member
[NDS] 445,000
[WII] 380,200
[PSP] 233,000
[PS2] 193,000
[360] 165,000
[PS3] 84,500
[GBA] 82,500
[NGC] 10,500
 
R

RBH

Member
[NDS] 525,000
[WII] 400,000
[PSP] 250,000
[PS2] 205,000
[360] 175,000
[PS3] 105,000
[GBA] 104,000
[NGC] 12,000
 
A

argon

Member
[NDS] 540,000
[WII] 425,000
[PSP] 275,000
[PS2] 220,000
[360] 205,000
[PS3] 105,000
[GBA] 90,000
[NGC] 10,000
 
B

Brak

Member
[NDS] 485,000
[WII] 355,000
[PS2] 211,000
[PSP] 210,000
[360] 180,000
[PS3] 115,000
[GBA] 95,000
[NGC] 11,000
 
A

apujanata

Member
[NDS] 516K
[WII] 426K
[PSP] 235K
[PS2] 222K
[360] 180K
[PS3] 102K
[GBA] 100K
[NGC] 11K

I hope I am not too low on NDS & PSP.
 
S

Speevy

Banned
PS3: 800,000 (Because the awesome showing at E3 retroactively affected sales)
PSP: 700,000 (Because the entire Wookie race bought one)
DS: 450,000
Wii: 375,000
PS2: 165,000
360: 140,000
 
D

DefectiveReject

Banned
[DS] 446,000
[Wii] 381,020
[PSP] 210,021
[PS2] 200,800
[360] 187,000
[GBA] 107,000
[PS3] 89,000
[GCN] 12,000

Resi 4 > 135K
Mario Party 8 > 200K
Pokemon Battle Wii> 100K
 
M

MasterMFauli

Banned
[NDS] 420,000
[WII] 350,000
[PSP] 170,000
[PS2] 180,000
[360] 200,000
[PS3] 80,000
[GBA] 81,000
[GCN] 5,000

And please dont forget me. You forget to count me in in the last prediction-topic :-/
 
R

rs7k

Member
[NDS] 370,000
[WII] 319,000
[PSP] 257,000
[PS2] 165,000
[360] 139,000
[PS3] 76,000
[GBA] 89,000
[NGC] 6,000
 
P

Parl

Member
[NDS] 436,000
[Wii] 366,000
[PSP] 259,000
[PS2] 207,500
[360] 174,000
[GBA] 86,500
[PS3] 85,000
[NGC] 11,000
 
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