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[QaaQer]

It isn't mind boggling if you look at MS/Sony financial reports.

You'll notice that nobody else wants to compete either. Why isn't Samsung trying to make a high end console? They have the money and resources and technical know how. Why isn't Apple? They seem to want to just keep the iOS store running. Why isn't Google? Why is Amazon making a set top box that runs Android games? How about a dark horse company like 3M or Oracle? All of these companies have the resources to make a home console that is directly in line with PS4/Xbone if that's what they wanted to do. Microsoft pushed its way in 15 years ago, and in the last decade and a half, no one else has made a serious attempt to enter the high end console market. Why is that?

Answer: because it's a terrible business to be in. Nobody wants in. Given that context, it's not surprising that Nintendo is operating this way. Why push hard / spent a ton of money to get yourself back in to a market that isn't very profitable anyway?

because they make premium games and game hardware and nothing else; and their handheld audience is still shrinking; and there is growth to be had in the console space if they can take back some of the retail game buying market.

If they concede the psx1 audience and their handheld market continues to contract, well sux to be them I guess.

 

[Socordia]

Judging by the thread, it's a bigger audience than anyone gives credence to. And more importantly, it's an audience you can build instead of sustaining yourself off of despite it being a finite thing.

If we gonna use neogaf as basis vita/wiiu would be selling crazy.

 

[nubbe]

it certainly need to compete with smartphones

since handhelds is a dying market and it is their bread and butter

 

[El Topo]

Judging by the thread, it's a bigger audience than anyone gives credence to.

The reaction at NeoGAF is not indicative for society.

And more importantly, it's an audience you can build instead of sustaining yourself off of despite it being a finite thing.

What audience? How would they build on said unspecified, unnamed audience? Why would said unspecified audience buy a NX?

 

[Terrell]

If we gonna use neogaf as basis vita/wiiu would be selling crazy.

NeoGAF isn't the only place you can see this, just the most readily apparent. The internet in totality would be a better sample, and there's a LOT of people pissed at Nintendo for their hardware choices, dating all the way back to the Wii.

What audience? How would they build on said unspecified, unnamed audience? Why would said unspecified audience buy a NX?

There is such a thing as a lapsed Nintendo gamer.

You release a console that can compete, you start mending fences with 3rd-parties, the press takes notice of a massive change in Nintendo's business, generates buzz among people, and will do modest but terrible sales in the first run. They follow that up with another competitive console that shows consumers and 3rd-parties that they are gearing to be a viable option in the space, the userbase grows as more 3rd-parties get on board. Congratulations, you've grown the audience instead of wallowing in the tiny one that currently exists.
And it works, because guess what company successfully followed this exact pattern? Microsoft. And apparently they're still viable for 3rd-parties in spite of their current slip-up with Xbox One, so once you build that relationship, it can be weakened but retained with the right decisions.

Clear enough?

 

[Socordia]

As a consumer electronic entertainment company, you actually can't outlive your fanbase without generating a new fanbase. And there's nothing to show that there will be a conversion rate from their mobile games yet, so at this point, why even bring it up as a solution to the problem?

posting again.

It´s better than your solution.There is a reason for no new players in game console market for years.

 

[Bgamer90]

If we gonna use neogaf as basis vita/wiiu would be selling crazy.

Mainstream audiences are just DYING to play mature/hip AAA third party games via a brand that has been considered "kiddie" for almost two decades -- they just need Nintendo to release a system with a ton a power!!!

 

[Anth0ny]

Again, who is reasonably going to buy a powerful (but otherwise regular) Nintendo console launching in 2016? How big is that audience? How would a reasonable chain of events look like that would allow them to build upon the console?

Not many. But at least it's a stepping stone towards their next console, and the one after that.

Releasing some weird, cheap console that goes all in on their first party output and is the ultimate "fuck you" to third parties is not only Nintendo admitting defeat in the traditional console market, but also them doubling down on their hardcore fanbase of ~20 million or less. Because I can't see their first party games alone being enough to sell that many people on the NX, barring a Wii-like miracle gimmick that captures a wider audience. "A bunch of Nintendo games" sounds great to me, but it's not going to sell, or else the $99 Gamecube would have kicked ass.

 

[Socordia]

NeoGAF isn't the only place you can see this, just the most readily apparent. The internet in totality would be a better sample, and there's a LOT of people pissed at Nintendo for their hardware choices.

The existence of these people doesn´t change the fact that this market is not reliable for more than one player.

 

[FullmetalPain]

They're going to go mobile and handheld only at this rate

 

[Terrell]

Mainstream audiences are just DYING to play mature/hip AAA third party games via a brand that has been considered "kiddie" for almost two decades -- they just need Nintendo to release a system with a ton a power!!!

No one has said that it would happen overnight except you.

The existence of these people doesn´t change the fact that this market is not reliable for more than one player.

And weak hardware with no hope of 3rd-party support ensures that Nintendo will never be that one player again. Ever.

 

[Socordia]

No one has said that it would happen overnight except you.

It won´t happen overnight because it will never happen.

 

[Hakai]

Not many are asking for super powerful. All people want is for it to be in the ballpark of the other two systems so it can run ports decently.

What good it will do to them to launch such a thing in the middle of a generation?

Who is going to buy a decently (or even really) powerful (but otherwise regular) Nintendo console in 2016 when they could buy a PS4/XB1 other than their (potentially dwindling) loyal fanbase?

This!

PS4 was profitable day one with a PS+ one year membership. It was profitable within a few months after launch without the PS+ membership.

It's really not that difficult to make a profitable and powerful machine. The days of losing $200 on every $599 console sold are over. You make the most powerful console you can make at $399 without losing money. That's the PS4. It works, and has worked a whole lot better than the $349 underpowered Nintendo box with a gimmick controller.



um helloooooooooo that 100 million wii install base and 1 billion mobile gamers will be all over dat new metroid

That's not the point. The thing is what a Nintendo branded Ps4 would do in the middle of the generation? Who would buy it, having already purchased the PS4?

Ride the Wii U out and then give it a try Next Gen but right now the NX should not be this powerful box, it is just too soon.

 

[Neoxon]

How the fuck is this hard Nintendo?

Make a box, as powerful or more powerful than a Ps4. Make a normal fucking controller. Call it the Nintendo Entertainment System, and have a launch list including Zelda, a Mario game, a Metroid Prime, and maybe a Mario Maker port.

That's what it will take. And if you copy the designs of the Ps4 and Xbone close enough, you will even get some 3rd party support by default if it's easy to port.

Stop doing "quirky" weird shit. Nobody wants an android console. Not your core audience anyway.

• Metroid Prime will never be an NX launch title (regardless of if it comes out 2016 or 2017), the guys at Nintendo made that pretty damn clear.
• Anyone who would want a powerful console with third party support already has a PS4 or an XB1. It's too late in the generation to try to go after them, especially when the PS4 being the industry leader has already been carved in stone for this generation.
• Third parties are never coming back.
• That core audience is gone.

Another dead Nintendo device. Great.

I just can't imagine how they could pull off something successful that is yet again way behind the times and yet again only supported by their own software.

They were gonna be on their own either way, so might as well make it a Nintendo Box that's cheap. Pretty much everyone expects Nintendo consoles to mainly be purchased for Nintendo games.

And weak hardware with no hope of 3rd-party support ensures that Nintendo will never be that one player again. Ever.

The odds of third parties coming back were very, very slim anyway. At least with weak hardware, they can make it as cheap as they can humanly make it while selling the system at a profit.

 

[nib95]

If true, I think this will be a mistake. If the hardware is at least slightly more powerful than the PS4/XO, it might incentivise gamers like me in to buying one, just to have better versions of multi platform games (plus the advantage of Nintendo exclusives). These days I'm not sure exclusives alone are necessarily worth the investment of a new console, especially when there are so many games on other platforms, and for many, so little time to actually play them.

 

[Neoxon]

If true, I think this will be a mistake. If the hardware is at least slightly more powerful than the PS4/XO, it might incentivise gamers like me in to buying one, just to have better versions of multi platform games (plus the advantage of Nintendo exclusives). These days I'm not sure exclusives alone are necessarily worth the investment of a new console, especially when there are so many games on other platforms, and for many, so little time to actually play them.

Unfortunately, gamers like you make up a very small minority of the market, not enough for Nintendo to rely on for making a powerful console. As I've said before, it'll take a decade (minimum) for Nintendo to get rid of the negative stigma around their brand in the eyes of the core gamer. Selling a hardcore console to a market that has already gone elsewhere will only end in a failure worse than the Wii U.

 

[Socordia]

No one has said that it would happen overnight except you.



And weak hardware with no hope of 3rd-party support ensures that Nintendo will never be that one player again. Ever.

There is no point even trying to be that one player.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

The only alternative to "pissed" is not "paying customer."

 

[Fourth Storm]

Consider that many of us bought Wii U thinking it was a half step above PS360 and also the fact that the mainstream consumer was utterly clueless on how powerful it was. It came out a year before the competition and was posing as a somewhat powerful core box.

Granted, Nintendo took missteps with Wii U, but they were understandable missteps (huge NSMBWii sales and popularity of tablets). Wii U launched with games like CoD and had a standard button config. Wii U along with Gamecube do serve as evidence that the audience for mature AAA content just isn't there. Sure, we could ask Nintendo to just release a me-too box, but what's the friggin point? Are we really all single-console owners here?

 

[Nightbird]

What good it will do to them to launch such a thing in middle of a generation?

Exactly. A Console 3 years late (if it is coming out in 2016 along with the handheld), needs to be powerful. I would even go so far and say more powerful than the PS4, because like that some developers might try to develop exclusive Games for the thing, also it might survive the transition to the next Gen a bit longer.

A Console Launching mid-gen should be somewhat prepared for the Future and not just try to pick off the Leftovers of this Gen

 

[Terrell]

There is no point even trying to be that one player.

There's no point to being the market leader?

.... I.... I just.... holy crap, who can honestly think that?

I give up, enjoy your lunacy and delusions that Nintendo can survive irrelevance, folks, I'm walking away, since there's no point in having a discussion where reality isn't part of the equation.

 

[nib95]

Unfortunately, gamers like you make up a very small minority of the market, not enough for Nintendo to rely on for making a powerful console. As I've said before, it'll take a decade (minimum) for Nintendo to get rid of the negative stigma around their brand in the eyes of the core gamer. Selling a hardcore console to a market that has already gone elsewhere will only end in a failure worse than the Wii U.

I don't think that is the case. I personally think there's a pretty substantial core console gaming market out there that Nintendo can still appeal to, and the lack of success of the Wii U is partly because they've failed to capitalise on it. Gamers like me grew up on Nintendo, we secretly would love to go back to their warm embrace, but they are just being left behind in terms of tech and online infrastructure. I can't see them getting another lightning strike of casual fad success the way they did with the Wii, so if the NX is just going to be Wii U 2, in other words, under powered and lacking proper third party support, I can't see it changing Nintendo's fortunes.

 

[Socordia]

There's no point to being the market leader?

.... I.... I just.... holy crap, who can honestly think that?

For the Cost-Benefit, yes there is no point.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

There's no point to being the market leader?

.... I.... I just.... holy crap, who can honestly think that?

I give up, enjoy your lunacy and delusions that Nintendo can survive irrelevance, folks, I'm walking away, since there's no point in having a discussion where reality isn't part of the equation.

This is a weirdly hostile reaction. Maybe you should cool down.

 

[Neoxon]

Exactly. A Console 3 years late (if it is coming out in 2016 along with the handheld), needs to be powerful. I would even go so far and say more powerful than the PS4, because like that some developers might try to develop exclusive Games for the thing, also it might survive the transition to the next Gen a bit longer.

A Console Launching mid-gen should be somewhat prepared for the Future and not just try to pick off the Leftovers of this Gen

Let's play this out...

1. Nintendo releases a powerful console
2. Third parties like the power available, but they're apprehensive about there being a market on the console for their games, so they don't support it.
3. Hardcore gamers are happy with their existing systems since they have guaranteed third party support, & they see Nintendo consoles only as a means to play Nintendo games.
4. Even if Nintendo prices the console version of the NX aggressively, Sony & Microsoft can easily screw Nintendo over by lowering the price of the PS4 & XB1 respectively, and play up the online community angle & say "we're guaranteed third party support" in advertising.
5. 2 years later (minimum), Sony & Microsoft releases the PS5 & the Next Xbox, further leaving Nintendo in the dust.
6. Nintendo ends up with a console that sold even worse than the Wii U due to its higher price tag & trying to cater to an audience that was already satisfied with what they have.

I don't think that is the case. I personally think there's a pretty substantial core console gaming market out there that Nintendo can still appeal to, and the lack of success of the Wii U is partly because they've failed to capitalise on it. Gamers like me grew up on Nintendo, we secretly would love to go back to their warm embrace, but they are just being left behind in terms of tech and online infrastructure. I can't see them getting another lightning strike of casual fad success the way they did with the Wii, so if the NX is just going to be Wii U 2, in other words, under powered and lacking proper third party support, I can't see it changing Nintendo's fortunes.

The system is gonna lack third party support either way, people don't buy Nintendo systems for third party games anymore & it would take years to convince the common gamer otherwise. There's just not enough of people like you for Nintendo to justify trying to be another "me-too" system. At least with the cheap Nintendo Box they can play up their "Nintendo consoles are only for Nintendo games" reputation by lowering the barrier of entry as much as possible.

 

[Terrell]

For the Cost-Benefit, yes there is no point.

I'll leave you with this: without that one time in the past 20 years when Nintendo was market leader? Nintendo probably wouldn't still be in business. So please continue speaking of how unimportant being market leader is, I'm done.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

I'll leave you with this: without that one time in the past 20 years when Nintendo was market leader? Nintendo probably wouldn't still be in business. So please continue speaking of how unimportant being market leader is, I'm done.

Hrm.

That's not actually true, though?

I mean, yeah, if you replaced the money the Wii made with losses, they'd be fucked. But again you're presenting hypothetical scenarios with only two available options and that's super weird.

You're going to need to back this up with numbers if you're going to insist on it.

 

[10k]

What if the NX is only a handheld with a Wii U architecture? I say this because iwata said the NX is a dedicated gaming platform, not platform(s) and he talked about NX aboard bing the Wii U architecture. So what if they plan on keeping the Wii U as the mainline console and the NX has the portable Wii U where cross platform gaming is possible?

Couple this with the new rewards membership they're planning and Matt's post about the handheld resolution (which means a handheld sku is coming), and I'm seeing the NX as just a handheld that shares an architecture, library, and OS with Wii U. There may be some tablets or phones, but I don't see Nintendo replacing the Wii U, just making more devices that share architecture with it.

I may be totally wrong lol.

 

[KHlover]

Those specs make sense...if the NX is a handheld. I'd buy a handheld with WiiU specs and a 720p screen in a heartbeat. Hell, as far as I'm concerned put in a literal WiiU into the NX minus disc drive and then nuke the WiiU brand. Pull the WiiU from the shelves, replace the OS with a new one that's shared with the handheld and put them back on as "NX" (free update for existing WiiU owners). Develop an app that lets you register physical games for digital download (If something unique per game disk like the "Private Header" from 3DS cartridges exists for disks that is) and lock that to the NNID. Have games shared between NX console and NX handheld and savegames automatically uploaded to the cloud and synchronized on all devices registered to your NNID.

 

[GhostTrick]

There's no point to being the market leader?

.... I.... I just.... holy crap, who can honestly think that?

I give up, enjoy your lunacy and delusions that Nintendo can survive irrelevance, folks, I'm walking away, since there's no point in having a discussion where reality isn't part of the equation.

What matter the most is being profits. Do you know how much it costed to Sony for PS3 or Microsoft for Xbox 360 to be where they've been ? A lot of loss.
There's a reason why Nintendo is striving for a blue ocean: Sustainable profits and audience.

I'll leave you with this: without that one time in the past 20 years when Nintendo was market leader? Nintendo probably wouldn't still be in business. So please continue speaking of how unimportant being market leader is, I'm done.

That's factually wrong considering the profits they made during all these days. Yep. Even during GC days.

 

[Bgamer90]

No one has said that it would happen overnight except you.

I don't think it's ever going to happen so how does that make any sense? I wouldn't say anything like that.

And weak hardware with no hope of 3rd-party support ensures that Nintendo will never be that one player again. Ever.

They aren't going to be in the "one player" top spot regardless. I don't understand why you actually think it's possible when Playstaion and Xbox has held on to the AAA core gaming console audience for far too long at this point. A super powerful console is going to mean Nintendo being in the same ol tough spot in which it will be hard for them to lower price when game/system sales aren't good. It's not (financially) worth it.

 

[Jessmo111]

Of course.

Super game boy conFirmed!

 

[Tigress]

Honestly, I think Nintendo had two options. Do what they are doing and not compete with xbox and playstation but be cheap enough to be impulse buy/2nd console buy. Or try to compete with xbox and Playstation which means being as powerful or more than them.

I can see why they went with the first. Because at this point their rep with 3rd parties is so bad it would take a lot of work and money to even bring them back. Making a powerful console just wouldn't even be nearly enough. We're talking needing to pay 3rd parties to put their games on to reduce the risk to 3rd parties (Who have more issues than just the power of the console but also that their games don't sell on Nintendo consoles). And even if they succeed in bringing third parties back, they now have to compete with two other manufacturers who already have a large portion of the market. There's a lot of risk and not much reward in this method. Sure, some people who really like Nintendo and just want one console wish for this, but it's high risk and the reward isn't great either (it's not like it's an untapped market and it's a market that even Sony and MS have to work hard to make profitable and haven't always themselves... even when their consoles were doing better than Nintendo has with Wii U. Ask yourself why would it be worth spending all that money and effort on a market that even the dominant players in the market can't always make money on? You spend time and money if there is a big reward at the end, not just a I can keep up with the other players and maybe make money).

Vs. setting themselves apart from Sony and MS and making it easy to buy their console alongside the other two. Not competing anymore (something they have always maintained is not something they want to do), it's cheaper for Nintendo, they can still make profit on the hardware (something important to them), and they don't have this uphill battle to try to bring back companies that have pretty much written them off. Whether the console is as powerful or not isn't as important in this case. It's if it is cheap enough to be easily bought and brings something different to the table. And lets them focus more on putting out games for it themselves so they don't have to rely on third parties (something bringing the handheld side and console side together does).

So, yeah, I think it's a pipe dream of people for Nintendo to try to compete with MS and Sony and get third parties. I don't think it's impossible. I don't think it's the best option for Nintendo though (and they're not in it to prove they are the best console. They are in it to make themselves money).

Does it need to be as powerful as xbox one or PS4? Not if it's powerful enough to make the games Nintendo is famous for and make the fans of Nintendo's games happy. It just needs to be powerful enough to do the games Nintendo wants to do. You need power if you want to compete with PS4 and xbox one and want to woo the third parties.

 

[vpance]

Are they even capable of making a console that uses more than 100w? You know, since they love the whole quiet and small form factor.

If MS had to make Xbone the size it is for their power, I can't imagine how big or loud Nintendo's version of a PS4.5 that some people are hoping for would be.

 

[Anth0ny]

That's not the point. The thing is what a Nintendo branded Ps4 would do in the middle of the generation? Who would buy it, having already purchased the PS4?

Ride the Wii U out and then give it a try Next Gen but right now the NX should not be this powerful box, it is just too soon.

Who would buy a new Nintendo console at all having already purchased the PS4? Clearly there's one side of this argument claiming "Yes, PS4 owners would absolutely buy a secondary, $200 Nintendo box that plays a bunch of first party Nintendo games!", while the other says "Why the fuck would a PS4 owner be interested in buying a Nintendo console at all, no matter how cheap it is?". Again, it's not like PS2 owners bought a $99 Gamecube just to play Wind Waker and Melee just because it was cheap.

Obviously the theoretical $399, powerful Nintendo box would go after people who haven't purchased a next gen console yet. Looking at last gen sales figures, even ignoring the Wii, there's a ton of room there to get a sizable piece of the pie. And while jumping in during the middle of the gen is far from ideal for Nintendo, that's their fucking problem for fucking up so bad with the Wii U. Try your best to fix shit with NX, get the message out there to consumers that Nintendo knows what they are doing, and at worst, it's a stepping stone towards their next console, which can launch closer to PS5/Xbtwo. Again, a $399 box can be both powerful and profitable day one, which would put them in a FAR better position than the Wii U.

I think people have a hard time understanding this: Nintendo games aren't the shit anymore. They are big games, but not the biggest games at this point. When I think of big console games, I think of GTA, COD, FIFA, Madden, NBA 2K, Minecraft, Skyrim, Ass Creed... all of these games are absent on Nintendo consoles. If you release a new console that doesn't have any of these massively popular games, how much success can you realistically expect? Nintendo doesn't even have their own first party FPS, open world sandbox or sports titles, which are basically the three most popular genres in console gaming right now. How can a console that just cranks out all of the old favourites, your Marios, your Zeldas, your Karts and Smash Bros., possibly reverse the downward trajectory of Nintendo console sales that started with the SNES? While I can't imagine a scenario where they don't outsell the Wii U with NX, I also couldn't have imagined in a million years a scenario where they didn't outsell the Gamecube, yet here we are.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Are they even capable of making a console that uses more than 100w? You know, since they love the whole quiet and small form factor.

If MS had to make Xbone the size it is for their power, I can't imagine how big or loud Nintendo's version of a PS4.5 that some people are hoping for would be.

I think Microsoft made the Xbox One that size because they were deathly afraid of heating issues and wanted to make sure everything got properly vented.

They couldn't risk any X-clamp shenanigans this time.

 

[Jorok Goldblade]

What good it will do to them to launch such a thing in the middle of a generation?

Early adopters aren't everyone, or even the bulk of the audience. The bulk of console sales come mid to late generation, after prices drop. If Nintendo can come in close enough to get ports but still undercut the competition on price, they stand a chance of grabbing that larger, mid to late adopter audience.

 

[Neoxon]

Who would buy a new Nintendo console at all having already purchased the PS4? Clearly there's one side of this argument claiming "Yes, PS4 owners would absolutely buy a secondary, $200 Nintendo box that plays a bunch of first party Nintendo games!", while the other says "Why the fuck would a PS4 owner be interested in buying a Nintendo console at all, no matter how cheap it is?". Again, it's not like PS2 owners bought a $99 Gamecube just to play Wind Waker and Melee just because it was cheap.

Obviously the theoretical $399, powerful Nintendo box would go after people who haven't purchased a next gen console yet. Looking at last gen sales figures, even ignoring the Wii, there's a ton of room there to get a sizable piece of the pie. And while jumping in during the middle of the gen is far from ideal for Nintendo, that's their fucking problem for fucking up so bad with the Wii U. Try your best to fix shit with NX, get the message out there to consumers that Nintendo knows what they are doing, and at worst, it's a stepping stone towards their next console, which can launch closer to PS5/Xbtwo. Again, a $399 box can be both powerful and profitable day one, which would put them in a FAR better position than the Wii U.

I think people have a hard time understanding this: Nintendo games aren't the shit anymore. They are big games, but not the biggest games at this point. When I think of big console games, I think of GTA, COD, FIFA, Madden, NBA 2K, Minecraft, Skyrim, Ass Creed... all of these games are absent on Nintendo consoles. If you release a new console that doesn't have any of these massively popular games, how much success can you realistically expect? Nintendo doesn't even have their own first party FPS, open world sandbox or sports titles, which are basically the three most popular genres in console gaming right now. How can a console that just cranks out all of the old favourites, your Marios, your Zeldas, your Karts and Smash Bros., possibly reverse the downward trajectory of Nintendo console sales that started with the SNES? While I can't imagine a scenario where they don't outsell the Wii U with NX, I also couldn't have imagined in a million years a scenario where they didn't outsell the Gamecube, yet here we are.

But the problem is that the market for those games don't exist on Nintendo systems anymore (well, Minecraft has a market on Nintendo systems, but that's it of the examples you gave). Anyone who would want those games have already gone elsewhere for them & are perfectly happy with what they have. It's too late to change that.

 

[Ryoku]

I think Microsoft made the Xbox One that size because they were deathly afraid of heating issues and wanted to make sure everything got properly vented.

They couldn't risk any X-clamp shenanigans this time.

Curious, what's your take on the whole "not intentionally building a weak console" statement?
I'm leaning more towards the next hardware being a handheld now, but I still have my doubts.

 

[Hakai]

Exactly. A Console 3 years late (if it is coming out in 2016 along with the handheld), needs to be powerful. I would even go so far and say more powerful than the PS4, because like that some developers might try to develop exclusive Games for the thing, also it might survive the transition to the next Gen a bit longer.

A Console Launching mid-gen should be somewhat prepared for the Future and not just try to pick off the Leftovers of this Gen

Not what I have said.

Middle generation launches are a no-no in my book, and betting on power makes it even harder to me believe it will have a success.

I am all in for a Nintendo powerful console, but the timing is not good for it.

 

[Just_myles]

Surprised nobody is emphasizing ram lol. I like the wiiU and Nintendo software. their software is always polished.

 

[GhostTrick]

Who would buy a new Nintendo console at all having already purchased the PS4? Clearly there's one side of this argument claiming "Yes, PS4 owners would absolutely buy a secondary, $200 Nintendo box that plays a bunch of first party Nintendo games!", while the other says "Why the fuck would a PS4 owner be interested in buying a Nintendo console at all, no matter how cheap it is?". Again, it's not like PS2 owners bought a $99 Gamecube just to play Wind Waker and Melee just because it was cheap.

Obviously the theoretical $399, powerful Nintendo box would go after people who haven't purchased a next gen console yet. Looking at last gen sales figures, even ignoring the Wii, there's a ton of room there to get a sizable piece of the pie. And while jumping in during the middle of the gen is far from ideal for Nintendo, that's their fucking problem for fucking up so bad with the Wii U. Try your best to fix shit with NX, get the message out there to consumers that Nintendo knows what they are doing, and at worst, it's a stepping stone towards their next console, which can launch closer to PS5/Xbtwo. Again, a $399 box can be both powerful and profitable day one, which would put them in a FAR better position than the Wii U.

I think people have a hard time understanding this: Nintendo games aren't the shit anymore. They are big games, but not the biggest games at this point. When I think of big console games, I think of GTA, COD, FIFA, Madden, NBA 2K, Minecraft, Skyrim, Ass Creed... all of these games are absent on Nintendo consoles. If you release a new console that doesn't have any of these massively popular games, how much success can you realistically expect? Nintendo doesn't even have their own first party FPS, open world sandbox or sports titles, which are basically the three most popular genres in console gaming right now. How can a console that just cranks out all of the old favourites, your Marios, your Zeldas, your Karts and Smash Bros., possibly reverse the downward trajectory of Nintendo console sales that started with the SNES? While I can't imagine a scenario where they don't outsell the Wii U with NX, I also couldn't have imagined in a million years a scenario where they didn't outsell the Gamecube, yet here we are.

Exactly. While they've put out good games this generation on Wii U... they were lacking ambitions. Ambitions to top or even be better than their predecessors. Smaller production values, playing safe on a lot of matters... I think that Nintendo needs to impress people again. And they don't even need a powerful hardware for this. Games such as Kid Icarus Uprising, Xenoblade X or even the next Zelda are the kind of games people want.

As for the last part, it would be possible I think, with a shared library. Because it would come down to people's preferences on form factor. Although, for the games you cited... Nintendo don't need them. Why ? Because the audience for these games are elsewhere. I'm a Nintendo fan myself... but why would I buy these series on a Nintendo console ? What is the incentive ? None. I could play them on PC. I could play them on cheaper platforms or more powerful platforms.

 

[nib95]

The system is gonna lack third party support either way, people don't buy Nintendo systems for third party games anymore & it would take years to convince the common gamer otherwise. There's just not enough of people like you for Nintendo to justify trying to be another "me-too" system. At least with the cheap Nintendo Box they can play up their "Nintendo consoles are only for Nintendo games" reputation by lowering the barrier of entry as much as possible.

Then why even launch a new system if it's simply to pursue the same failing strategy? They could theoretically just drop the price on the Wii U in a substantial way, and offer more first party support and games for it. I'm just not sure Nintendo will ever have a very strong market, with just Nintendo exclusives as the key selling point. I honestly think the desirability factor of their exclusives is waning, and failing to capitalise on growing trends with the new generation of gamers.

And consoles generally tend to have 5+ year life cycles. That's plenty of time to start working on changing consumer mind frame about the brand. Hell, the 360 essentially did it in a single generation.

 

[ShockingAlberto]

Curious, what's your take on the whole "not intentionally building a weak console" statement?
I'm leaning more towards the next hardware being a handheld now, but I still have my doubts.

My take is they're not trying to cut it down for wattage and form factor but they're not aiming for PS4, either.

I think what will hold it back, assuming the priority is a shared library, is the power draw for the handheld part. Even if everything is scaled down significantly in the handheld, we're still talking about a huge power draw, more so if you increase the screen size and the resolution. A bigger battery won't just solve the problems, especially one that gets as hot as Li-On cellphone batteries do, and could increase the costs more than they would like. A loss leader strategy on a contracting market would murder them unless they tried to make up for it in ways like memory cards, which would probably be bad on its own, too.

Basically, I am not expecting the moon. I think simply dropping the Gamepad and fixing the Wii U's architecture should allow it appreciably better graphics, but anyone hoping for something competitive will not be happy.

 

[Terrell]

Hrm.

That's not actually true, though?

I mean, yeah, if you replaced the money the Wii made with losses, they'd be fucked. But again you're presenting hypothetical scenarios with only two available options and that's super weird.

You're going to need to back this up with numbers if you're going to insist on it.

Sorry, I'll rephrase: If it weren't for the Wii, they'd be out of the console business. Even with the Gamecube, it was a sinking ship that could only barely sustain itself. The bulk of their profits that kept the lights on at the time were all on the back of the Game Boy Advance. This was discussed at length at the time and isn't something hard to see as factually accurate, especially when you look at their current situation of successive financial losses because 3DS wasn't able to sustain Nintendo's console failure. And in light of their situation with Gamecube, Nintendo rolled the dice and won big.

It doesn't take much to puzzle it out, but I do agree that not factoring in the handhelds during that time was a mistake. But again, handhelds show that without semi-consistent market leadership, which they retained with an iron fist in the handheld space, you simply can't survive. So the comment that market leadership doesn't matter is just beyond crazy and I legit lost my shit over that.

 

[Hakai]

Early adopters aren't everyone, or even the bulk of the audience. The bulk of console sales come mid to late generation, after prices drop. If Nintendo can come in close enough to get ports but still undercut the competition on price, they stand a chance of grabbing that larger, mid to late adopter audience.

PS4 will be in it's third year next year, it's install base is already 22.3 million users.

And also 2016 seems the year Sony will start to push those first party titles out and with third part support guaranteed.

Again, who would buy this new Nintendo shiny new thing if is only a Nintendo branded PS4?

 

[GhostTrick]

My take is they're not trying to cut it down for wattage and form factor but they're not aiming for PS4, either.

I think what will hold it back, assuming the priority is a shared library, is the power draw for the handheld part. Even if everything is scaled down significantly in the handheld, we're still talking about a huge power draw, more so if you increase the screen size and the resolution. A bigger battery won't just solve the problems, especially one that gets as hot as Li-On cellphone batteries do, and could increase the costs more than they would like. A loss leader strategy on a contracting market would murder them unless they tried to make up for it in ways like memory cards, which would probably be bad on its own, too.

Basically, I am not expecting the moon. I think simply dropping the Gamepad and fixing the Wii U's architecture should allow it appreciably better graphics, but anyone hoping for something competitive will not be happy.

As for the handheld part, it's true. It will be the lowest common denominator. Although, I think they will need at the very least a 64gflops part, which is realistic in term of horse power, battery life... especially at 480 or 540p. Even though, they'd be safe with a 128gflops part, which at these resolutions would be on par with Wii U in term of horsepower. Not only visuals, but also hardware capabilities. Unlike 3DS which was close to Wii in term of visuals.. not in term of horsepower.

 

[Tigress]

But the problem is that the market for those games don't exist on Nintendo systems anymore (well, Minecraft has a market on Nintendo systems, but that's it of the examples you gave). Anyone who would want those games have already gone elsewhere for them & are perfectly happy with what they have. It's too late to change that.

I wouldn't say it's too late to change it. But it's probably not worth it. Nintendo would have to put a lot of money and time to convince third parties to come back, pretty much not even paying for exclusives but paying them to even bring the ports in. Then they'd ahve to do this for a while and hope gamers noticed that they are getting third parties again so that the gamers start considering them. And if it pays off, maybe they can pull back on paying the third parties.

It would be a lot of money spent to do what? Get in a market that two other companies already have dominance in and can't even always make a profit with how much money you have to spend to keep dominant (even when you don't have to pay third parties to make games for your device)?

The reward just isn't worth the risk honestly. I can easily see why Nintendo isn't even going to try at this point. They're better off going for a different market and also trying to make themselves cheap enough that it's not unthinkable for gamers who really like their games to buy their console just for their games (and offer enough that it makes it really appealing to buy that extra console). As well as some one pointed out get the kiddy market (families wanting to buy a cheap game console/handheld for their kids). I could even see the point of making sure it runs android games... if it's cheap enough it will be more appealing to parents to buy it for their kids than some android device. Especially if on the handheld side it's pretty durable for kids and can run the same games as the higher end android devices (vs. what the low end devices that would be priced the same could do).

If they can make it easy for themselves to provide a lot of the library and cheap that it makes it easy to buy as a second console or for a casual gamer who doesn't want to get as involved as to buy a 400 dollar device, I think that is an easier route for them and more likely to get them profit. ANd if they can keep it so that the device can still make them money by just the hardware sell, even better (and pretty much sticks with their philosophy of not trying to do the same risk that Sony and MS do).

 

[specialK]

 

[Anth0ny]

But the problem is that the market for those games don't exist on Nintendo systems anymore (well, Minecraft has a market on Nintendo systems, but that's it of the examples you gave). Anyone who would want those games have already gone elsewhere for them & are perfectly happy with what they have. It's too late to change that.

While neither of us are likely to budge on this argument, I think effective marketing and a legitimately great product can go a long way. Obviously a commercial featuring a nuclear family sitting in their perfect, model home living room while the narrator reads off a press release "The next, exciting entry in the Call of Duty franchise arrives on NX!" isn't going to do fuck all to change their perception to the market. There needs to be radical changes to their messaging, no doubt.

Nintendo has never tried, during their entire existence, to be truly third party friendly. As recently as this year, you still hear top men at Nintendo giving the "We have to create great first party experiences, drive the install base, and the third parties will come to us" schtick, which is total Yamauchi horse shit.