But such a drought is the last thing Nintendo needs right now. The 3DS alone can't carry Nintendo through 2017. And all due respect to the 3DS, it doesn't exactly have enough steam left in it to last all of 2017 (in my opinion).
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Digitimes Rumor: Nintendo to ship 10-12m NX units in 2016, mass production in Q2
- Thread starter killercow
- Start date
This is why their position is so precarious. There's no margin for error at all. They have to find a price point/performance ratio that can sell. They also need a compelling feature set and software to get the market interested again. They have to accomplish all of this in a market where casuals and core gamers have moved on, leaving only what remains of their children customer base and die hard Nintendo fans. In order to grow, they have to turn the tide and get people to come back.
Launching the NX is like jumping off a cliff and threading a needle on the way down.
That I agree with you. But I'm trying to remember that this is Nintendo and obvious doesn't always tie in for them. I want to believe that I am playing on the NX this time next year but I'm holding my breath for the time being.
To me, if Nintendo doesn't say anything about the NX until E3 then it isn't coming out this year. They need to follow Sony and MS's 2013 console release model.
I assume you mean the NX Console, because the 3DS did well enough for the NX Handheld to ride off of its hype.
That I agree with you on. But I'm a bit worried that putting both the NX Console & NX Handheld out there at the same time (mainly at launch) will be too much for the average consumer to process, hence my prediction on Nintendo staggering the releases of each form factor based on the popularity of consoles & handhelds in each region (Ex: Console first in North America, Handheld first in Japan, etc.).
Pancake Mix
Copied someone else's pancake recipe
2016 for some hardware configuration of the NX gets more likely every day. At the same time, Nintendo has provided all of the goods on Wii U and 3DS or has them coming in the pipeline, including an original 3D Zelda. I fully expect that said 3D Zelda will be given a Twilight Princess-esque cross-gen release. We might even get Pikmin 4 if we're lucky.
Let's look at just some of the games still to come this gen in the west, most of them published by Nintendo. All of these are also retail releases.
3DS
4 Square Enix JRPG's:
Final Fantasy Explorers
Bravely Second
Dragon Quest VII
Dragon Quest VIII
Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam (not long now)
Monster Hunter X
Project X Zone 2
Everything Neoxon added
Wii U
Xenoblade Chronicles X (not long now)
Pokken Figher from the Tekken team
#FE from the Persona team
A new 3D Zelda
Everything Neoxon added
Yeah, this could have been a lot worse for a final year. A lot worse.
Let's look at just some of the games still to come this gen in the west, most of them published by Nintendo. All of these are also retail releases.
3DS
4 Square Enix JRPG's:
Final Fantasy Explorers
Bravely Second
Dragon Quest VII
Dragon Quest VIII
Mario & Luigi: Paper Jam (not long now)
Monster Hunter X
Project X Zone 2
Everything Neoxon added
Wii U
Xenoblade Chronicles X (not long now)
Pokken Figher from the Tekken team
#FE from the Persona team
A new 3D Zelda
Everything Neoxon added
Yeah, this could have been a lot worse for a final year. A lot worse.
I've been working on a mock up of a slightly fatter (but shorter in height) Gamecube style console, made of matte black rubberised plastic. Nothing on the front except a disc slot. Mmmmmm.
Srsly tho, I'd love a cube again.
ChaosZeroX
Banned
Wow 10-12 million? No way.
I assume maybe 3-4 in the first year. No way it hits 10-12.
I assume maybe 3-4 in the first year. No way it hits 10-12.
Warm Machine
Member
It is still a hybrid!
*runs*
*runs*
As stated earlier in the thread, not if it's counting all NX form factors.
The 3DS did not do "well enough". They sold 1/3 of what the DS sold. Those would be seen as catastrophic numbers for any company.
Businesses need to grow.
Broken Hope
Member
I for sure am looking forward to them starting the Virtual Console over again with Super Mario Bros... Not.
Davey Cakes
Member
I'm truly concerned about this.
But, I'm hoping that maybe Nintendo understands why their release model for the Wii U Virtual console is flawed. If we're talking about a system that unifies architectures, maybe it will also absorb the current Virtual Console somehow. Then again, one of the biggest issues is re-licensing for each platform, right?
Nintendo needs to get its shit together on this front.
Ninja Scooter
Member
If the NX-handheld (if that's even a thing and it's not just one big machine) sees the same kind of contraction in numbers and userbase the 3DS saw they would have plenty to worry about. Nintendo's handheld business is far from the "sure thing" it was 5 years ago.
Eolz
Member
If you want to say that, don't compare it to the second best-selling console ever (everything compared to that would be a disaster if we followed you).
You can say it's not good while comparing it to the GBA and the PSP.
Mobile destroyed this market, but they're still at nearly 20M 3DS handhelds sold in Japan. Their problem is the western market, and honestly, selling the same numbers than 3DS would be pretty good if you look at the current handheld market. It will never go back to 100M.
Legitimately the one thing I need them to have sorted out from the jump. No I don't want to rebuy for 2.50 more for the NX version, nor do I want to sit through 4 years of drip feed to reach where my Wii VC was... after 4 years of drip feeding then. :lol
Ninja Scooter
Member
It's still seen as a market shrinking. It doesn't matter that the DS was the highest selling handheld system of all time, they still lost a huge chunk of audience from one product cycle to the next, and the market conditions that caused that shrinkage are not going away (if anything they are only getting worse as mobile grows as a platform). If Apple all of a sudden sold 1/3 as many iPhone 7 models as they did iPhone 6 do you think they'd be like "Oh well the iPhone 6 was the most popular phone of all time of course we can't match that" or do you think they'd freak the fuck out? Execs are not going to compare the 3DS to the GBA just to make themselves feel better.
That's why I think maintaining 3DS numbers with a slight increase is what Nintendo should shoot for. Considering how poorly the 3DS started out I'll give them credit for putting it in respectable territory. As long as Nintendo drops 3D, there shouldn't be a reason why Nintendo can't put out a hardware that can see reasonable price drops over the lifespan of the console.
.How?
Ninja Scooter
Member
This is assuming their handheld market will stay and/or grow even a little bit, rather than continue to shrink as mobile and tablet gaming becomes a more and more prevalent option for parents/kids. We've seen it happen before with Nintendo as their console business saw a similar downward trajectory from one console to the next. Their handheld business is far from stable is all I'm saying, and there are a lot of things there Nintendo needs to be seriously concerned about (which I'm sure they are, they are smart business people).
That's some lofty expectations.
I'm thinking this will include both handheld and home console.
I also think that the handheld will eventually have at least 2 SKU's ala 3DS/2DS - one of them being a super affordable entry level type. Gotta love that scalable architecture talk!
I'm thinking this will include both handheld and home console.
I also think that the handheld will eventually have at least 2 SKU's ala 3DS/2DS - one of them being a super affordable entry level type. Gotta love that scalable architecture talk!
Bioshocker
Member
Of course price matters. It always has. Xbox 360 succeeded not only because of its great first and third lineup but also because it was much cheaper than the PS3. PS4 had the perfect pricing when Microsoft bundled their console with Kinect at launch and charged 100 USD extra for it.
Naturally you can get people to pay more if you offer more. But there's always a limit to every product (maybe Apple is the exception here), and Wii U was an expensive Nintendo console. I don't think they want to launch a $350 console again. If they do, they need to offer exactly what Sony and Microsoft offer AND something more. That'll never happen because Nintendo will never get the same third party support. They probably will continue to fall behind on online services, even if they'll like take big leaps in that area this time.
In the end people buy Nintendo consoles to play Nintendo games first and foremost. But Wii U showed us that those who are willing to pay $350 to do it are not many.
Eolz
Member
Make the NX grow from WiiU numbers? Not too hardly.
Saying grow from even N64 numbers is another story, but having a clear message would help. Good account system that wouldn't make people reticent to buy digitally, architecture good enough for other devs without being a simple ps4 copy either, not being sit between two chairs by trying half-heartedly to appeal to several fanbases at the same time, things like that.
Again, going above WiiU and even GC numbers should work as a secondary console, the rest is harder.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
All I really want is cross compatibility between the handheld and console.
What aren't you buying? The story in the OP seems pretty realistic to me.
I'd be more than happy with that. At least then I don't have to buy two pieces of their hardware.
I'm thinking you will, but they'll play the same games.
and I still don't understand how this is going to work if the controller is at least equivalent to a 360 controller when it comes to buttons. a handheld with l2/r2 triggers seems like a mess.
and if it's not equivalent to a 360 controller when it comes to buttons then they're even more fucked
Unless I'm mistaken the 3DS did more than 12 million year one so it's not all that crazy.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Well, I hope this time Nintendo doesn't screw up like they did with the WiiU. If they do Mario World iOS is just a matter of time. Then again, Mario Kart VR (for PS5 of course) does sound interesting.
Jaevicious
Banned
Why cant Nintendo just make software!!! Everyone would be happy and Nintendo could make major $$$...
Unknown One
Member
Reminds me when Nintendo had a forecast of selling 10 million Wii-U in a fiscal year. This is after the flop of a launch and the 50k January.
Dead_Pixel
Banned
New 3DS has ZL and ZR. They work perfectly.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
Already done.
It's been demonstrated on this forum that they'd make even less. And likely lay off a ton of their staff in the process.
SpinningBirdKick
Banned
The 10m-12m numbers seem achievable in year 1:
- Power equivalent of 2 Wii U's duct taped together.
- No backwards compatibility.
- No discs.
- Controls built into the main unit.
- Online store.
- Launching with a big Nintendo flag ship IP.
- Approx same price point as the 3DS.
Grampa Simpson
Banned
n3DS is equivalent to the Wii U Pro Controller as far as sticks and buttons go. Except for the lack of thumbstick clicks.
Let's assume that the NXDS has the same number of buttons and sticks as the n3DS.
A basic Nintendo NX game would run on the NXDS with the same buttons and sticks as on the n3DS. It would have a top screen and something non-necessary on the bottom screen.
If you took this same cart and plugged it into your WiiNX - which comes standard with a Wii U Pro Controller - it would play the top screen on the TV, the bottom display would not be seen, and if the game is programmed to, some optional things could be mapped to the thumbclicks.
If you used a WiiNX gamepad (optional accessory) or NXDS as your controller, you could use either of them to house your bottom screen.
I could go into detail were I not posting from my phone, but the idea is that every game supports one screen and the n3DS buttons and sticks. Other things - like a 2nd screen or thumbclicks are optional.
There are always exceptions.
On top of the weird naming (granted, it's an example, but going by Nintendo's rebranding in stores, they're moving away from the Wii & DS branding), I'm not sure if your route is the best way to go for a number of reasons (using an old controller, requiring a bottom screen, restricting 2 buttons from use by developers, etc.). How I imagined it was...
- The NX Handheld would be more like the Vita in its design with a more "Nintendo" approach. A single 540p capacitive touchscreen, clickable circle pads, a D-Pad, buttons, & 4 bumpers similar to the n3DS's (two of which are the click wheels that Nintendo patented, basically like a scroll wheel on a mouse). It can sync up with the NX Console & act as a controller (or plugged in to act as a wired controller) as well as enabling Off-TV Play.
- The NX Console's controller is about the same as the Wii U Pro Controller with a few exceptions. On top of being the main controller, it would have a 3.5mm headphone jack on the bottom of the controller. The clickable wheels would serve as the bumpers. There would be a touchpad to emulate the NX Handheld's touch functionality. And, like the competition, you can plug it in via USB to make it a wired controller.
Jaevicious
Banned
If that happens, It would be 2 more yrs before we saw another 1st party game released
Grampa Simpson
Banned
Here's the thing about cross-compatibility - they set a minimum, and then they can play with form factors within that minimum.
Eolz
Member
I don't see Nintendo dropping the double screen (at least not how some would like it, they can go with a single tall screen), nor using capacitive touch screen yet. 4 bumpers seem pretty hard on an handheld too imo (unless it's the n3ds layout) but everything else seems pretty reasonable imo.
Nothing too fancy.
I made that speculation post under the notion that Nintendo was gonna make as many games work on both form factors as possible.
The only issue with having two screens on the NX Handheld is that it kinda ties Nintendo's hands when it comes to cross-compatibility for the NX Console. If they want most of their games to be played on both, then the two should be as close to one another as possible when it comes to controls. While doing this with a second screen on the Handheld isn't impossible, it'd be just another inconvenience. And I'm not sure if Nintendo wants to go down the GamePad route again for the NX Console.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
Everyone is not happy? WHO?
at the very least, mario kart 9 would be ready late 2017.
The latest Nintendo Direct pretty much cemented that NX at least initial form factor is Console. They announced 3DS games all the way through Summer and not small time games Major franchises for NA.