That could go either way, it's a diverse place, but it's also an area filled with old folks.
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Kansas 04 special election results thread
- Thread starter mcfrank
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That could go either way, it's a diverse place, but it's also an area filled with old folks.
I do recall feeling this exact way about Michigan in 2016. Oh the bad feelings.
RustyNails
Member
Guccifer at it again
Relax. Thompson will likely lose because this is fucking Kansas. Even getting close is an accomplishment here.
At this point it's a question of whether or not the anti-Trump swing is pretty consistent across rural and urban counties, or if the urban county here is going to swing even more harshly. If the swing is universal, then this is disappointing for Estes, but still good enough to hold on. If Wichita has swung even more harshly than the results in other counties would success or its turnout is significantly higher, then Thompson is very much in it.
maabus1999
Member
And Sedgwick is completely stuck right now because of the issue they're having. Sedgwick has 191 of those outstanding precincts. Thompson is up in Sedgwick by 6,000 votes currently.
And going by trends, I think Estes only has another +1000 to pick up outside of that county. Butler is 75% in.
neurosisxeno
Member
Greenwood and Harper should combine for another ~1000 votes in his favor, but if Sedgwick literally doubles it's totals, that puts Thompson 2k ahead still...
Still would be a pretty dramatic turn if Thompson won Sedgwick by even a point?
balladofwindfishes
Member
One vote that we didn't have before that we continue to not have isn't going to matter all that much. So the stakes are much lower, and so you can just watch this play out as more of an experiment in how 2018 might end up, than actually caring about who wins or loses specifically.
The other benefit if this is really close (or Thompas performs a miracle, unlikely though):
Republicans are going to decide Trump can't help them or protect them with voters anymore. They are going to be less likely to support his wide eyed bullshit, and they're going to be more at odds with his legislative/budgetary ideas.
Things will get even more sloppy for Trump legislatively.
Republicans are going to decide Trump can't help them or protect them with voters anymore. They are going to be less likely to support his wide eyed bullshit, and they're going to be more at odds with his legislative/budgetary ideas.
Things will get even more sloppy for Trump legislatively.
legacyzero
Banned
Damn...
I mean, it's Kansas, so it already wasn't looking good, but I love the strength our candidate has.
I mean, it's Kansas, so it already wasn't looking good, but I love the strength our candidate has.
HomerSimpson-Man
Member
Geez, I'm surprised this is even this close. I figured it would be a red state blow out since it's Kansas.
Even it's a loss for the Dems, considering it's a deep red state, this outlook is pretty good for other state elections down the line.
Even it's a loss for the Dems, considering it's a deep red state, this outlook is pretty good for other state elections down the line.
Yeah, it was reported that election day voting was basically even there.
He's not going to gain enough to win.
maabus1999
Member
Butler fully in now.
All up to Wichita area...
All up to Wichita area...
Four_Chamber
Member
Even a single digits loss is a big win. Remember that the DNC didn't even go all out in this district. If this ruby red district that Pompeo would win by 30 points has narrowed to a single digits district, watch out in 2018. Thompson should run again with the opportunity to have significant DNC support.
If you mean he's currently not gaining votes it's because Sedgwick is being recounted. If you mean he won't gain anything after they're done counting then I wouldn't know enough to disagree.
Unless this turns into a 20+ blowout by the end I'm happy. It being a nail biter would be crazy.
Can't even recall feelings from the election without people reading current panic.
David H Wong
Banned
Yeah the Dem is overperforming by about 20 points. The trend is alarming for Republicans regardless of who wins. That's why they're watching this so closely.
lol, people really do think the DNC is responsible for everything...
balladofwindfishes
Member
Any congressman in a +20 R district (or worse) is going to be sweating the next year and a half.
And that's a lot of congressmen.
And that's a lot of congressmen.
We want him to win but more important is a strong showing for Democratic turnout. It could very well be indicative of very strong support during midterm elections, which Democrats typically don't turn up to.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I mean the 4th is "only" R+15, so anyone in that range shouldn't be too worried.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This isn't true. It's "the president's party typically doesn't turn up" not specific to the Democrats, but relevant to the last 8 years.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
They turn out during midterm elections, just not when a Democrat is president. Same for Republicans - they turn out when there's a Democratic president, they don't when there's a GOP president
This is probably not a race that would have/would benefit from significant involvement by major national Democratic organizations.
Uhh no. Trump won by 27 and pompeo won by 30.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
Maybe we're using the term differently. R+15 means you'd need to win over 15% of the the electorate that didn't vote for you to win, so 60-30 becomes 45-45.
Incorrect. 2006 midterms were heralded by a 2005 ohio special election that was much closer than it should have been. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ohio%27s_2nd_congressional_district_special_election,_2005
Sound familiar?
No.... he hasn't gained a single vote since the early votes were counted
maabus1999
Member
There's the margin he has to make up, 5000 votes. Going to be tough for Thompson but it is all Wichita it looks like going forward now.
Oh, no idea about that so nvm. Looks like there's still over 100 precincts left in Sedgwick so I'd be surprised if he doesn't gain a single vote lol.
With 73% in looks like Sedgwick is all that's left.
CesspoolofHatred
Member
Sedgwick, Harvey, and Sumner seem to be the only ones left with a significant number of precincts remaining
NihonTiger90
Member
This is a district that's R+15, that Pompeo and Trump won by 2-to-1 margins in, that's home to the anti-abortion movement (Wichita is a huge part of it, deeply conservative).
Anything that's not a 20-25 point win is troubling.
Sorry I meant margin of votes. When early votes were counted Thompson was up 6k in Sedgwick. It's actually gone down to 4k. Hence he hasn't "gained" any votes.
Edit: I'm pumped that we were this close. I'm just pointing this out for everyone to not get excited that votes still have to be counted in Sedgwick
The "R+15" term comes from the Cook Partisan Voter Index, which measures the difference between a given district's vote in the last two presidential elections and the national average in those elections.
legacyzero
Banned
Seems the DNC brushed this one off? I wonder what the impact would have been if we poured some campaign dollars out there
https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/851972265252188160
https://twitter.com/lhfang/status/851972265252188160
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
This certainly bodes well for Georgia 6th. Ton of money behind that race.
Oh okay that makes more sense lol. Yeah this is looking like it may be a single digits loss for the dems, which sounds really good.
Escape Goat
Member
Probably would have stirred up the Republican base.
Carpe Libertatem
Member
Probably would have done worse considering the (D) label is toxic in Kansas
There's a reason Thompson rarely even referred to himself as a Democrat
(also not really the DNC's job)
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